FWThursday Markets Report 08 Sep 2011

September 8, 2011
Click on the section heading to jump to that section
UREA
NITRATES & AS
AMMONIA
Uncertainty over Chinese exports boosts urea prices

Helwan secures improved netback US barge prices move higher
Yara to post French AN prices shortly

FSU nitrates marginally weaker Abu Qir UAN moderately higher
Prices surge to possible point of overheating

FSU asking-prices up sharply Far East numbers follow lead
PHOSPHATES
POTASH
SULPHUR & H2SO4
Indian DAP spot purchase wakes up sleepy market

Indian buyer books DAP $683/mt CFR US sale to L. America at $660/mt FOB
Market focus shifts towards Adnoc issues September Q4 business price at $220/mt FOB Ruwais

SE Asia: $25/mt hike set to be accepted K+S yet to post Q4 pricing in Europe
FACT to award tender at $245/mt CFR Noracid down until mid-September
PRICE INDICATORS
Product
UREA FOB Black Sea FOB Baltic Sea FOB Middle East (prilled)* FOB Middle East (granular) FOB China (prilled) FOB New Orleans granular (st) AMMONIA FOB Black Sea FOB Middle East spot CFR US Gulf CFR Tampa AMMONIUM NITRATE FOB Black Sea UAN FOB Black Sea 32% FOT Rouen 30% (/mt) DAP FOB Tampa/US Gulf FOB Baltic/Black Sea FOB Morocco FOB Saudi Arabia FOB China CFR India
PRICE TRENDS
Last Week Week Change
495 495 510 515 505 507 13.5 6.0 6.5 7.5 = 5.0
This week
Full Price Assessments Freight Indications FIS Cash Settled Swaps

PHOSPHATES Click on the heading to jump to that section
500 490 510 505 495 507
510 495 515 527 505 512
488 478 502 502 495 502
555 545 590 590 310
570 550 590 590 320
555 535 590 590 315
555 545 590 590 320
7.5 7.5 = = -2.5
$/mt
525
500
Urea: key price benchmarks
475
450 425 400
320 245
335 250
325 243
340 248
-5.0 2.0
375 350 325
650 690 698 685 645 677
660 695 707 685 650 683
625 690 698 690 630 677
655 695 705 700 640 677
15.0 = 1.0 -10.0 12.5 3.0
300
FOB Black Sea prills
FOB Middle East granular
FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)
Click on the graph to jump to that section
Legend: * indicative; ** revised; *** no recent business ; 40-42% export tax; 24-25% export tax
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September 8, 2011 / Volume 25 / Number 22
Urea
Highlights of the week

Helwan secures further improvement in netbacks via $550/mt FOB sale to Trammo. NF Trading books prilled urea for October loading at $510/mt FOB with trader adding length. US barge prices at New Orleans rebound above the $510/st FOB marker. Middle East producers dispose of September and October length to traders in sales at $525/mt FOB. Higher bids are subsequently rejected. Chinese export volumes decline as sellers concern over change in export window grows.
Uncertainty over Chinese exports boosts prices

Exports from China continue, but uncertainty over the central governments intentions on a possible revision of the low-tax export window serves to dampen seller enthusiasm. Regional business nevertheless continues to be dominated by Chinese product, offering little or no room to material from other origins. This was again evident in the September 6 Namhae tender in South Korea for 20,000 mt granular urea that resulted in a sale of Chinese granular around an even $530s/mt CFR. The September 7 sales tender by Helwan for a granular cargo for end-September loading resulted in an award to Trammo at $550/mt FOB. The price was up by a more than $4/mt on Trammos purchase from MOPCO ahead of Eid celebrations, reflecting continued trader belief in a firm forward market. The sale followed deals concluded by PIC, Fertil and Qafco with traders/marketers for granular urea at $525/mt FOB in recent days. Higher bids were also reported. The recent purchases are likely heading for markets west of Suez, given competition in markets east of Suez at numbers reflecting substantially lower netbacks. Inland prices in the US are starting to creep up to support higher values in the barge market. Nevertheless, the barge market remains well south of recent replacement values out of Egypt and the Middle East. Opportunities to make spot imports pay may however start to emerge on the US East Coast, given that truck markets premium of as much as $25/s to barge values. Buyers along the Arkansas River are finding the highest truck prices in the US currently, and they typically need to enter the market first. However, other parts of the Southern Plains region, notably Texas have experienced brutal heat threatening both the current crop and expectations for winter wheat acres. Quotes for prills from the FSU are in a wide $505-520/mt FOB range from the Black Sea and the Baltic. Yuzhnyy prills were up further via a sale at $510/mt FOB at midweek. Trader interest is also evident in the Baltic but buyers have yet to concede numbers above the $500/mt FOB marker.
Short-term outlook
The relatively limited 560,000 mt procured by IPL via the August 26 tender will shorten the gap until the next Indian trading session, which could then coincide with added demand from Pakistan and Bangladesh. This potential development will aid sellers efforts to secure improved netbacks in coming weeks, and some traders are already adding length in anticipation thereof. Some spot weakness is nevertheless evident in certain quarters for prills. The outlook is also firm for granular as evidenced via forward purchases made this week from Egypt and the Middle East. Limited residual availability from Iran and China for India for October loading enhances prospects of price-improvement in the next Indian tender, and the US market appears poised for further gains in barge values.
$/mt
525
500
Urea: key price benchmarks
475
450 425 400 375 350 325 300
FOB Black Sea prills
FOB Middle East granular
FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)
The above chart was taken from www.fertilizerweek.com. If you wish to access these charts directly or obtain the weekly price data that makes up the charts, call Julie Cunningham on +44 20 7903 2150.
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Urea Tender Update

SUMMARY OF KEY UREA TENDERS - AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2011 Importer Quantity Closing ShipComments Country (mt) date ment Min of Agri 24,000 P Sept 24 Nov To be available for Sri Lanka Bagged Dec distribution. AICL 30,000 P Sept 7 60-80 Details of offers Nepal Bagged days CFRLO or DEL from LC AICL warehouses awaited. Helwan 25,000 G Sep 7 Sep/early Booked full cargo Egypt Nominal Oct with Trammo at Sales tender $550/mt FOB. Namhae 20,000 G Sep 6 Sep Liven books 5,000 South Korea 10,000 P mt prills in low $520s/mt CFR. Granular booked by trader around $530/mt CFR. PetroVnam 20-25,000 P Sep 5 Sep Booked by Liven Vietnam at $532/mt CFR. Monomeros 15-18,000 G Aug 31 Sep Booked by Helm at Colombia abt $579/mt CFR. Pusri Holding 20-40,000 G Aug 26 Sep/Oct Awarded 30,000 mt Indonesia Ex Kaltim to Indagro and Sales tender 10,000 mt to Interfame at $521.50/mt FOB. IPL Unspecified Aug 26 Sept-Oct Awards totalled India 560,000 mt at $518/mt basis CFR Mundra. Offers totalled 2.6 million mt. MOPCO 25,000 G Aug 24 Sep Booked full cargo Egypt Nominal 15-25 with Trammo at Sales tender $545.75/mt FOB. Pusri Holding Aug 19 Sep FOB Sales Indonesia concluded: Sales tender 50,000 G Kaltim $506.50/mt 30,000 P Pusri $499.50/mt 10,000 P Gresik $511.50/mt MOPCO 25,000 G Aug 17 Sep Booked full cargo Egypt Nominal with Trammo at Sales tender $513/mt FOB. MoARD/AISE 550,000 P/G Aug 16 Sept Tender scrapped. Ethiopia +/- 20% 2010Re-tender May uncertain. Direct 2012 negots preferred. BCIC 100,000 G Aug 16 45 days Awards pending. Bangladesh from LC BCIC 100,000 P Aug 16 45 days Awards pending. Bangladesh from LC Min of Agri 24,000 P Aug 15 Oct Awarded to ETA Sri Lanka Bagged and Valency at offered prices. Highlighted comments =Changes since last report in prior tenders P =Prills G=Granular TBA=To Be Announced
FSU
BLACK SEA: Activity in the Black Sea was relatively
subdued in the early part of the week, mainly on limited residual availability for September/October. Offers from most marketers were around $510/mt FOB, but select suppliers were indicating requirement for netbacks closer to $520/mt FOB. The highest sale posted was initially concluded at an even $500/mt FOB, but NF subsequently indicated that a September 7 deal was struck with a trader adding length at $510/mt FOB, well above bids to KuAz. September shipments and firm nominations from Yuzhnyy are largely unchanged from last week around 230,000 mt:
SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Baltic Wind 32,974 Wrestler (1) 24,838 Kiran A. (2) 49,122 Eugenia B (3) 44,200 Optima
Good Wish(4) Tasman ID (5)
Trader Indagro Fitco Helm Keytrade Helm Toepfer Keytrade
Destination
Status
Sailed 03 Sep Sailed 04 Sep Sailed 05 Sep Under loading Sailing 10 Sep Eta 10 Sep
Brazil Brazil India (Mundra) Pakistan Ivory Coast / Senegal India TBN
22,000 50,000 5,397 228,531
Eta 12/16 Sep Eta 16/18 Sep
Total
(1) cargo fm TIS 9,030t Gorlovka (prilled) + 9,298t Cherkassy + + 6,510t Severodonetsk (2) incl. cargo fm TIS 13,461t Salavat + 11,367t DneproAzot (3) incl. cargo fm TIS 10,000t Salavat + 10,750t Kuybishev (4) cargo fm TIS Gorlovka (prilled) + Cherkassy (5) cargo fm TIS + 15,000t NPK Sumykhimprom
BALTIC SEA: Ameropa is linked with the purchase of

25,000 mt prills pursuant to the September 6 Grodno sales tender for the same volume. The cargo was booked around $480/mt DAF for a $496/mt FOB Klaipeda equivalent. Quotes for residual October availability from other producers are above $500/mt FOB with claims of repeat sales at that number. Recent sales in Brazil below $520/mt CFR are indicative of netbacks in the $480s/mt FOB, but subsequent offers to Brazilian importers reflect returns closer to $500/mt FOB. As was reported in the September 2 FW Extra Update, Ameropa confirmed that a purchase of a full cargo from Phosagro was made August 31 in the upper $470s/mt FOB for an indicative $478-495/mt FOB Baltic range last week.
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Europe
TURKEY: Kastamonu scrapped its September 7 tender for
2x3,000 mt prills and covered the requirement from Turkish inventories.
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: IPL purchases totalling about 560,000 mt
pursuant to the August 26 tender are termed insufficient to cover demand for imports for loading through October. A further tender is expected to be floated by another canalising agency by the end of September.
Middle East & Africa

MIDDLE EAST: Producers are aiming well above the
recent sales at $525/mt FOB to traders, despite the significant slowdown in shipments to key contract markets such as Thailand. Four sales for September and October lifting were concluded for about 100,000 mt with Ameropa, Helm and Yara by PIC, Fertil and Qafco.. The destinations for the cargoes are yet to be identified, but the parcels would appear to be heading for markets west of Suez unless prices in markets east of the Canal improve substantially. Sabic indicated that a bid from a trader some $2-3/mt above the deals concluded had been rejected. Overall bullishness persists, and firm offers for limited additional spot availability are not available. Sabic is shipping 20,000 mt urea to South Africa in combination with 5,000 mt Maaden DAP for Profert. Returns on US business are up further on last week. Trades around $512/st FOB reflect delivered values close to $560/mt CFR Mississippi River for a $522-525/mt FOB netback to producers dependent on freight coverage in the spot market.
PAKISTAN: TCP is expected to issue a further tender

for urea shortly, but the quantity is yet to be identified. The importer is also in discussions with Sabic as the 190,000 mt procured from Trammo, Keytrade and Helm are termed insufficient to cover the current shortfall.
SRI LANKA: A Ministry of Agriculture tender for 24,000

mt bagged urea September 22. for December distribution closes
NEPAL: Details of offers submitted in the September 7

AICL tender for 30,000 mt urea were not available at press time.
BANGLADESH: BCIC did still not confirm purchases

with traders that offered a total of 362,500 mt in the August 16 tenders for granular and prilled urea. A final decision on buying or possible scrapping of the tenders is expected to emerge shortly. New tenders for 100,000 mt each prilled and granular are planned for late September and further sessions are likely to ensue by mid-October.
EGYPT: MOPCO booked 25,000 mt with Trammo at

$550/mt FOB in its September 7 sales tender for 25,000 mt for end-September/early October loading. The price was up by more than $4/mt on the traders $545.75/mt FOB purchase from MOPCO via that producers August 24 sales tender.
Asia
CHINA: Domestic prices were up this week in Northern
provinces. Quotes for prompt positions were up by RMB 50-70/mt to RMB 2,170-2,200/mt FOT ex factory gate. The increase ensued on the back of substantial buying from distributors at last weeks low quotes around an even RMB 2,100/mt FOT. The market was particularly active in Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui. Part of the surge in activity and prices was also linked to traders concerns over the early closing of the low-tax export window as some buyers rushed to accumulate positions for bonded warehousing for later export. Speculation on revised dates for the low tax-window for exports of urea from China continues unabated.
ETHIOPIA: AISE/MoARD has further delayed its revised

urea tender that had been expected to call for offers for 250300,000 mt rather than the 550,000 mt originally tendered for in the scrapped the August 16 sessions. Local reports now suggest that the Ministry of Agriculture elected to pursue direct negotiations with producers to procure the quantity required, rather than involving traders via the tenderprocedure initially applied.
4
Clarity on the issue is not expected before next week following a meeting at ministerial level. Suggestions from some sources are that the window originally set to expire October 31 will be shortened by 15 days, for the 110% tax to apply from October 16. The more pessimistic view from a Chinese producer standpoint is that the low export tax will only apply through September 30. There is no indication available at this stage with regard to permissions of continued exports via bonded facilities after the lower tax-window ends. As was indicated in the September 2 Extra Update, exports via bonded warehouses for the three months following the December 1, 2010 reintroduction of the 110% export tax amounted to about 2 million mt at the low tax rate.
Americas
NEW ORLEANS: Suppliers started the week with offers
at $510/st FOB New Orleans for granular urea, but have succeeded in moving prompt sales as high as $512/st FOB and offers late September 7 were at $515/st FOB. Suppliers are aiming to complete more enduser business, citing higher values in some inland truck markets.
US MIDWEST: Warehouse prices for granular urea

from across most of the region vary from $530-540/st FOB. Activity is seasonally thin, and these prices have not been tested among retailers.
THAILAND: Demand for granular urea remains marred by

extensive flooding and low domestic prices. Contract cargoes from Middle East and Malaysia have been postponed or cancelled outright. Prospects for a revival in activity in the short term appear remote.
US SOUTHERN PLAINS: Effective September 3,

Koch Nitrogen raised its posting for granular urea from its Enid OK plant to $540/st FOB.
CANADA: Keytrade is linked with a further sale of 1825,000 mt granular urea late last week. The deal was likely booked with Sylvite possibly for partial delivery into the St. Lawrence Seaway. The price indicated in the deal was in line with recent sales around the $580/mt CFR marker. While the source of the product yet to confirmed, the tonnage will likely emanate from an offshore position rather than being delivered from CF Industries production.
VIETNAM: Vietnamese buying continues with pricing

reported in an extreme $505-532/mt CFR spread. Daewoo is linked with sales of 2x6,000 mt parcels of Chinese prills to Vinacam while the Liven deal for 20-25,000 mt prills from China with PetroVietnam at $532/mt CFR is also confirmed. Two versions on PetroVietnams rejection of the lowest $529/mt CFR offer in the September 5 tender circulate locally. Some observers suggest the offer that specified PIM as an alternative origin was rejected due to the relatively small prills normally supplied by the Indonesian manufacturer. Others continue to indicate that an option to supply Iranian material rendered the deal unacceptable to the importer.
MEXICO: A group of buyers on the East Coast are

soliciting offers for 20,000 mt prills in combination with 56,000 mt NPK 16-16-16. The urea would need to be priced well into the $540s/mt CFR Altamira and Vera Cruz to reflect recent FSU replacement values.
INDONESIA: Pusri Holding is yet to announce additional

tenders following the August 26 session that resulted in sales of 40,000 mt granular at $521.50/mt FOB Bontang.
BRAZIL: Prills off incoming vessels traded at $518523/mt CFR, largely at par with last week. Offers for full cargoes for forward delivery are in the mid $530s/mt CFR, but buyers appear hesitant to book additional cargoes. The premium for granular urea is also considered excessive by most buyers. Offers for coarse grade are rapidly approaching $570/mt CFR, but trades are reported as low as $556-557/mt CFR. Keytrade will ship a prior sale to Bunge from Fudao/China.
SOUTH KOREA: Namhae booked a mere 5,000 mt

uncoated prilled urea from China with Liven around $525/mt CFR. The importer reportedly succeeded in covering 1520,000 mt granular product with a trader around an even $530/mt CFR. The identity of the seller of the granular urea was not revealed.
CHILE: Ameropa is in the freight market for a cargo of

granular from Fudao/China to Chile in September laydays.
5
UAN
Ammonium Nitrate/CAN
Abu Qir secures improved netback September 5

Abu Qir achieved part of the improvement targeted in the September 5 tender to sell 20,000 mt UAN-32 for prompt loading. The sale to Gavilon at $335/mt FOB was up by $4/mt on the August deal, also to Gavilon. Romanian and Baltic suppliers claim substantially higher netbacks in the $540s/mt FOB. Dutiable (for the EU) FSU remains stable around $330/mt FOB from the Black Sea.
Yara yet to follow GPN in posting French AN

Yara is yet to provide clients in France with updated prices for ammonium nitrate and CAN, but a revised posting is expected shortly. FSU producers of AN and CAN maintain a bullish stance in key markets. AN from the Black Sea is on offer around $340/mt FOB while CAN is indicated available a mere $10/mt lower. Bids are so far substantially below the targets identified, but suppliers appear unwilling to provide priceconcessions to stimulate sales.
Americas
NEW ORLEANS: September spot availability from CF
Industries and PotashCorps Louisiana plants is spoken for, and expectations are that October tons will be quoted at $355/st FOB for UAN-32.
FSU
BLACK SEA: Promophos has nominated a vessel to
load Rovno CAN from TIS in September, likely planned for France:
SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Iohann 6,600 Mahmastal Total 6,600 Trader
Promophos SAL Destination
US MIDWEST: Suppliers are trying to inch UAN prices

higher, especially west of the Mississippi River, but many are in the position of trying to resell their own forward purchases that have not been delivered yet by producers. Quotes from Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio generally are $12.3012.35/unit FOB, although reports of some lower priced trade east of the Mississippi River are popping up.
Status
Eta 11/13 Sep
Europe
Europe
FRANCE: Yara is expected to post revised prices for
September for ammonium nitrate and CAN in France later this week after GPN took the lead last week, posting September AN at 340/mt DEL.
TURKEY: Igsas booked 6-12,000 mt ammonium nitrate

in its tender this week for 10-12,000 mt with Korfert. The tonnage emanates from a prior position, and the deal is understood to have been closed in the upper $340s/mt CFR for the South, including 180 days for a netback marginally below $320/mt FOB. The importer also requested offers for a similar quantity of ammonium sulphate. (See below).
6
Ammonium Sulphate
FSU producers aim higher on increased demand

KuybishevAzot was seeking netbacks for its ammonium sulphate above $230/mt FOB in negotiations this week, up by more than $6/mt on most recent sales. Demand is relatively firm and buyers in nearby markets such as Turkey have been facing similar increases in asking-prices for white crystalline product and for coke-oven grade material. In addition to the large parcel scheduled for Turkey by Korfert for September loading as indicated below, the trader also booked 12,000 mt with Igsas this week at about $228/mt FOB equivalent. The sale was concluded with 180 days credit in the upper $250s/mt CFR basis Iskenderun.
FSU
BLACK SEA: Korfert has nominated a vessel to load a
total of 35,000 mt white crystalline ammonium sulphate from Yuzhnyy/TIS with eta mid-September. The full cargo is heading for Turkey, not east of Suez as originally indicated:
SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity B Europa (1) 35,000 Total 35,000
Trader Korfert
Destination
Status
Eta 12/13 Sep
Turkey
(1) 10,000t Cherkassy + 25,000t Kemerovo
7
Ammonia
Highlights of the week

Yara settles limited quantities from Ventspils at $580/mt FOB. Sellers raise offers for residual forward availability to $600/mt FOB. PIC books additional September cargo with Mitsui at $550/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on last done. Trammo books a small cargo with OCP, but the producer still requires substantial October volume. Middle East product perceived short over next weeks. Producers seek further price-improvement. Speculation emerges on massive increase in Tampa pricing for October.
Prices surge to a point where overheating may be an issue

The relentless surge in ammonia prices continued unabated this week, with new record 2011 prices posted for several benchmarks. As has been the case in recent weeks, sources in the Western Hemisphere are again in the lead, with confirmed sales substantially above last done. Prices in markets east of Suez also surged, albeit to a lesser degree while some observers worry about an overheated global ammonia market. Product in the Baltic changed hands at $580/mt FOB, only to be followed by offers around $600/mt FOB. Asking-prices from the Black Sea zoomed past bids from traders close to $570/mt FOB for limited October positions available, and sellers are now targeting returns in line with most recent Ventspils sales. Some traders involved in business referenced to the Tampa ammonia prices bravely suggest that the October contract will need to settle close to $650/mt CFR, if not higher. Shortages persists in Europe and North Africa. OCP is attempting to secure sufficient product for timely October arrival, and the imminent return of the balance 50% DAP capacity still idled in Tunisia will add further demand. Erratic operations in Algeria and Trinidad, plus turnarounds in Egypt have added fuel to the fire. Middle East prices were also up on last week. Limited additional tonnage was booked for September from PIC by Mitsui at $550/mt FOB and Sabic indicated returns on contract volumes priced via formulae in India close to $520/mt FOB. Scarcity of tonnage in Southeast Asia resulted in major increases in the delivered value in tender business in Vietnam. Orica is also likely to have to pay up substantially to cover requirements through October resulting from the outage following the incident at its Kooragang Island ammonia unit. While many traders find it hard to believe that the coin does have a reverse side, it does. Extremely tight availability is set to ease somewhat going forward, particularly east of Suez. Qafco V is already operating and volumes for export are likely to emerge in coming weeks. In Australia, the Burrup ammonia plant is already operating close to capacity, and exports from the unit should alleviate some of the sensation of emergency that prevailed in recent days.
Short-term outlook
The surge in prices appears set to continue as September progresses, and the imbalance in supply and demand may well render further price-increases possible. Limited availability from FSU suppliers throughout the month will serve to maintain upwards pressure until full output is restored is Egypt and Algeria. Cargo movements from the Middle East as will likely be required to complement supply from traditional sources for markets west of Suez will maintain upward pressure on regional prices and will support demand for higher numbers to endusers in Southeast Asia. A reversal in pricing appears unlikely until and unless regular FSU output is added to the equation together with increased production in the Middle East and improved regularity at plants in the Western Hemisphere.
$/mt
605 590 575 560 545 530 515 500 485 470 455
Ammonia: key price benchmarks
FOB Black Sea
FOB Middle East
CFR Tampa
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FSU
BLACK SEA: No new sales of Black Sea ammonia were
concluded since the NF Trading deal for about 15,000 mt with Trammo as reported in the September 1 Thursday Markets Report. That cargo was priced at $555/mt FOB. Sellers are aiming some $15-25/mt higher in recent quotes for limited residual October availability, and bids close to the $570/mt FOB marker were rejected. Firm nominations to date for September are around 130,000 mt. Additional vessels to load in over the month will likely include the Havis to carry about 39,000 mt for the US for Nitrochem. Nitrochem will also have the Gas Snapper and the Gas Grouper arriving Yuzhnyy by the end of the month to load 23,500 mt each. One of these is expected to sail for Belgium while the other will likely head for Tunisia. The total Yuzhnyy volume for September is not expected to exceed 230,000 mt due planned turnarounds and other short-term maintenance:
SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Gas Columbia 23,420 Gas 23,303 Snapper Pertusola 11,800 Marigola 11,850 Prins Maurits 12,070 Gaschem 23,400 Bremen Gas Manta 23,400 Total 129,243
MOROCCO: OCP covered 15,000 mt from Trammo for

first half October arrival, but is still looking for additional tonnage. The price in the deal is unknown, but is estimated well above $600/mt CFR based on recent asking prices from all sources.
SAUDI ARABIA: Sabic indicates that the parcel loaded

on the Almarona from Mesaieed for Dahej is priced via formula at $558/mt CFR for a $520/mt netback. The cargo is part of a swap with Qafco. The producer has a heavy program for September already in place:
SABIC SEPTEMBER LINE UP Jag Viraj Camberley Almarona Al Barrah Rose Gas September 02 September 06 September 07 September 08 September 10 September 12 September 13 September 22 September 23 Jubail Ras Al-Khair Mesaieed* Jubail Jubail Ras Al-Khair Jubail Jubail Mesaieed* 15,000 23,000 5,000 23,000 23,000 20,000 23,000 23,000 10,000 165,000 Asia Far East WC India Far East SE Asia US US Far East WC India
Trader Mitsui Nitrochem Yara Yara Yara Nitrochem Nitrochem
Destination Finland
Status
Sailed 02 Sep Sailed 04 Sep Sailed 08 Sep Arrived 31 Aug Arrived 08 Sep Eta Eta 12 Sep 13 Sep
Gaschem Pacific Gaschem Pacific Al Jabirah Almarona Total
France Tunisia Turkey Italy Belgium Morocco
*Swap tonnage with Qafco
QATAR: Qafco reports a smooth start-up process at the

Qafco V ammonia unit, and indicates satisfactory output from the unit given the fact that the plant is still in its startup phase. Qafco loads the Almarona for Sabic for India September 7, returning an earlier swap. Some reports suggest that Qafco VI ammonia output may commence in Q4, but an early 2012 start-up is considered more likely.
BALTIC SEA: Yara is indicated as the buyer for a limited

tonnage from Ventspils at $580/mt FOB. Asking prices for residual October volumes are now above $600/mt FOB.

ALGERIA: Reports on the performance of the three
indigenous ammonia units vary, depending on the source of information. Latest news suggests that the Annaba unit is up and running, but the output is limited to a few hundred tonnes a day. Arzew has one unit down due to continued technical problems, while the second unit was set to restart at press time.
KUWAIT/BAHRAIN: Mitsui is understood to have

increased the volume purchased from PIC to about 20,000 mt via an additional deal for about 11,000 mt at $550/mt FOB, also for prompt loading.
EGYPT: The EBIC unit is running well despite reports to

the contrary, and the producer is indicating regular output.
TUNISIA: GCT indicates DAP output at 50% at Gabes and

is aiming to restart the second DAP train shortly.
9
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: Following the scrapping of prior sessions, FACT has
issued yet another tender for the import of 7,500 mt ammonia for delivery to Cochin. The revised tender is set to close at 11:30hrs local time September 12. Offers for the parcel to arrive Cochin on or before September 25-30 are to remain valid through September 19. In prior business on contracts priced via formulae, Sabic indicates that the parcel loaded on the Almarona from Mesaieed for Dahej this week is priced via formula at $558/mt CFR, thereby raising the top end of the Indian CFR contract range to that number. The Nisyros will load 15,000 mt Mitco ammonia from Malaysia September 13-15 for Paradip with 10,000 mt to be discharged for PPL under the importers long term agreement with CIFC. The vessel thereafter sails for Haldia to discharge 5,000 mt for Tata under Tatas agreement with Mitco. The Rose Gas is to load 23,000 mt from Jubail around September 10. The vessel will first proceed to the Far East to discharge 8,000 mt to a Sabic contract customer, and will thereafter proceed to Paradip to discharge 10,000 mt to PPL under the CIFC agreement. The vessel finally sails for Haldia to offload the balance 5,000 mt for Tata under the Mitcos long term agreement with the importer.
Americas
US MIDWEST/NORTHERN POINTS: Agriums
September 7 price list for ammonia from Early IA, Garner IA, Whiting IA and Mankato MN is $800/st FOB. Clay Center and Conway KS are posted at $785/st FOB and $780/st FOB respectively. Greenwood and Hoag NE are posted at $795/st FOB and $790/st FOB respectively. Similar prices are cited by other suppliers for the Dakotas.
US SOUTHERN PLAINS: Agrium has posted

ammonia from Moscane OK at $775/st FOB, effective September 7. The companys Borger TX plant is posted at $735/st FOB.
CALIFORNIA: Agriums Central California postings for

truckloads of ammonia are at $705/st DEL. Northern California truckloads are quoted at $710/st FOB.
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Sources connected with

different ammonia producers are uniformly predicting that natural gas supplies to individual plants will routinely vary from 100% to as low as 75%, likely through the end of the calendar year, while the National Gas Co. works to get its latest offshore gas platform operating at full speed. At press time industry sources said Yaras numbers 1 and 2 ammonia trains were affected, and one or more PotashCorp units also may have been affected this week, but confirmation was not available at press time. So far the gas-related cutbacks have not had a major impact on downstream nitrogen production from the Helm UAN unit or from PotashCorps urea plant. Yaras ammonia export lineup for Brazil from plants here includes 35,000 mt in September, 34,000 mt in October and 40,000 mt for November.
Asia
AUSTRALIA: Mitsui is in discussions for the supply of a
further cargo to Orica for mid-October arrival. The parcel will follow on the two cargoes booked by the importer with Mitsui and Trammo in the mid $630s/mt CFR and will likely be priced substantially higher. The Burrup ammonia unit is operating close to rated capacity.
VIETNAM: The precise outcome of the September 5

Vinachem/Dinh Vu tender for 6-7,000 mt for mid-October arrival was not available at press time. Reports of a deal around $650/mt CFR with a major trader are widely circulated.
10
Phosphates
Indian spot DAP purchase wakes up sleepy market

The market was taken by surprise following the sale of 40,000 mt DAP for October delivery to an Indian spot buyer $6/mt above the new established benchmark price in the country. The cargo is most likely to be lifted from China netting back to the high $640s/mt FOB. Phosphate suppliers OCP, JPMC/Jordan and PhosAgro/Russia are to price their DAP supply contracts for October-March 2012 deliveries to India at the new $677/mt CFR. OCP is set to lift one to two panamax cargoes in September at the prior $612/mt CFR but it might elect to delay the shipments until October for a higher return in the low $640s/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar. DAP/MAP trading continues to move at a steady pace, with some activity noted in western Europe and Latin America, where OCP/Morocco has concluded sales totalling 65-70,000 mt DAP, including Italy in the absence of Tunisian product, and 60,000 mt MAP into Brazil. However, business has largely been pegged to August pricing, with DAP either side of $700/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar and MAP sold into Brazil netting back to $680/mt FOB. However, the South American market, namely Brazil and Argentina, is described as saturated at this stage, with Brazilian ports experiencing severe backlogs and subsequently soaring demurrage rates. A delay of up to 50 days is reported at one of the largest port, Paranagua. The domestic US market remains quiet ahead of serious harvest work, and the export market is thin, discouraging producers from making new offers for enduser business that does not need to be satisfied in the near term. To make new DAP sales in Latin America, exports from the US and elsewhere need to discharge at $690-695/mt CFR as far south as Argentina, according to traders. With regards to MAP, Mosaic has altered its standard premium for MAP (11-52-0) over DAP to $20/st, after leaving it at $10/st for the past several years. Domestic traders routinely have achieved spreads of $20-35/st for for prompt truckloads and barges of MAP compared to DAP over the last two years.
Ethiopias AISE/MoARD has yet to issue its DAP retender for around 350-400,000 mt bagged DAP. Rumours suggest AISE is looking to negotiate directly with international producers such as JPMC/Jordan and Sabic/MPC/Saudi Arabia. Notably, Sabic has sold its first Saudi DAP cargo in the international spot market at $685/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair into South Africa. East of Suez, Quantum has sold another Australian DAP cargo into Bangladesh in the $720s/mt CFR. The sale finalises Incitec Pivots export program for 2011. Production-wise, GCT has ramped up operations to 50% of capacity at the Gabes DAP plant. An uncertain output outlook, outstanding contract commitments and local domestic demand are likely to keep the Tunisian producer out of the spot market until the end of 2011.
DAP: key price benchmarks
$/mt
710 690
670 650 630

610 590 570 550
FOB Tampa/US Gulf
FOB Baltic/Black Sea
FOB North Africa
The above chart was taken from www.fertilizerweek.com. If you wish to access these charts directly or obtain the weekly price data that makes up the charts, call Julie Cunningham on +44 20 7903 2150. Highlights of the week Indian spot buyer books DAP at $683/mt CFR; Rollover on Moroccan September sales into Europe/Brazil; US DAP sales to Latin America at $660/mt FOB Tampa; Sabic concludes first spot cargo ex-MPC at $685/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair; No date yet on Ethiopian DAP tender; AISE looking to negotiate directly with producers;
11
Short-term outlook The excitement generated by this weeks Indian spot purchase has the market asking whether there will be more spot purchases, or whether this was a one-time deal. At press time, reports from India suggested the deal might have been driven by production losses due to problem with a phosphoric acid supply pipeline at one plant. However, if just one cargos worth of DAP were needed to solve a shortfall, it seems more likely Indian importers could have gone to their contract suppliers to seek modest volume increases in planned cargos at the contract price, rather than pay $6/mt more for a spot cargo. Nevertheless, even if this weeks spot purchase is repeated it probably is prudent for market watchers to assume this is a short-term phenomenon addressing a seasonal concern. That is not to say there will be no impact on other endusers. Buyers for Ethiopia and Pakistan had hoped to win lower offers from suppliers, and the prospect of having to outbid India for Chinese is a bolt out of the blue. In addition to cargos from China, India could buy spot cargos from Sabic, which is expected to have one or two cargos to offer in October.
SUMMARY OF DAP/MAP/TSP/PHOSROCK/PHOSACID TENDERS Importer/ Quantity Closing Shipment Comments Country '000 mt date Period NFL India RCF India RCF India GSFC India MoARD Ethiopia 250 DAP 2x 18K mt MAP/DAP 400 DAP 50 DAP 750 DAP Sep 01 Aug 25 Aug 25 Aug 25 Aug 16 Sep/Oct Sep/Oct Sep Sep Sep-Jun No offers received. Award issued for 25K mt MAP 11-44-0 at $590/mt CFR. Two offers received. Scrapped. One offer received but unopened. Scrapped. No offers received. Scrapped. Nine offers totalling 2 million mt at $690-833.62/mt CFRLO Djibouti. Retender likely to be held next week for 350-400K mt. 50K mt awarded at $126.95/mt CFR for minimum 29% P2O5 content grade. Two offers received/ 18K mt awarded at $573.87/mt CFR with 270 days credit. Scrapped. No offers received. Quantity required awarded at $568.24/mt CFR with 270 days credit. Four offers totalling 60,000 mt. Scrapped. No offers received. No offers received. Re-tender for 400K mt DAP July 29. No offers. Re-tender July 8. No offers received. Re-tender July 7. Two offers at 510s/mt FOB ex-China and 520/mt FOB ex-Bulgaria. Awards yet to be issued.
RCF India MoA Sri Lanka MMTC India MoA Sri Lanka RCF India RCF India RCF India RCF India ASSC Iran
100 phosrock Aug 16 Aug-Sep 29% P2O5 12 Aug 15 TSP 195 Jul 28 various NPKs 12 Jul 18 TSP 550 firm Jul 8 375 option various NPK 400 DAP Jul 7 70 DAP/MAP 550 firm Jun 21 375 option various NPK 400 DAP Jun 16 70 DAP/MAP 180 Jun 15 TSP Oct-Nov May onwards Sep-Oct
Jul-Oct Jul-Sep Sep-Feb Jul-Oct Jun-Sep Sep-Feb Jul-Aug
New entries in bold; TBC= to be confirmed
12
Europe
ITALY: Buyers have booked around 15-20,000 mt Moroccan
DAP at $705-707/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar in the absence of Tunisian tonnes in the market, as GCT, the traditional supplier to the country, has been plagued by a number of production stoppages during the eight months of 2011. The Tunisian producers contract commitments in Turkey continue to take precedence over spot business.
SAUDI ARABIA: Sabic has sold 5,000 mt DAP exMPC for early October shipment to Profert in South Africa at $685/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair in combination with 20,000 mt urea. Sabic plans to load its second shipment end of September to its term customer Zuari in India. It shipped 24,415 mt of DAP on the Taba arriving August 25 at Kandla (see shipping schedule under India update further below). Sabics contract commitments in India total 600,000 mt of DAP ex-MPC for August-March 2012 shipment with buyers IPL, IFFCO and Zuari. It is understood that the tonnes shipped October onwards will be priced at the new benchmark of $677/mt CFR for an estimated netback in the low $660s/mt FOB. MPC continues to gradually ramp up DAP production. Once fully operational, DAP capacity is expected to reach 3 million mt/year.
TURKEY: Gubretas so far has received around 60,000 mt

Tunisian DAP during June-August under its contract for 120,000 mt with GCT agreed in May at $615/mt FOB Gabes. Production issues at the Tunisian producers DAP plant have resulted in severe delays in the shipment schedule.

MOROCCO: OCP has concluded sales totalling 60,000 mt
of MAP 11-54-0 for September lifting with its joint-venture partners in Brazil netting back to around $680/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar basis 11-52-0. It has sold 15-20,000 mt Moroccan DAP at $705-707/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar into Italy following sales to other European markets at $698-705/mt FOB, which compares with August business at $695-700/mt FOB. It has allocated 80,000 mt DAP for September shipment for Europe. It is estimated to have sold so far around 65-70,000 mt into the region. It is understood that Italy requires 30-40,000 mt, France 20,000 mt, Spain 10-15,000 mt and UK 8,000 mt. The Moroccan producer plans to ship 25,000 mt to Bangladesh under price formula in September. It also will load 30,000 mt MAP 11-52-0 for Koch in the US in September the cargo was originally scheduled to be lifted in August. OCP has yet to confirm whether it will load one to two panamax cargoes of 50-55,000 mt DAP for its contract customers Zuari/PPL, Chambal and Tata in India. It is understood that the contract cargoes loading in October will be priced at the new benchmark set by PhosChem at $677/mt CFR for an estimated return in the low $640s/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar.
TUNISIA: GCT is now running one of its two DAP

production lines close to capacity. The Gabes plant has a designed monthly capacity of 110,000 mt DAP. The Mdhilla TSP plant is running normally. The Tunisian producer is looking to restart the second DAP train at Gabes and the TSP plant at Sfax over the coming days. Production was halted August 2, with operations restarting August 26. The Tunisian producer is scheduled to ship around 60,000 mt to Turkey over the coming weeks. Outstanding shipments are estimated at around 75-80,000 mt DAP for both Turkey and Italy. GCT is likely to have limited export availability in the fourth quarter given its contract commitments and domestic demand amid an unstable production outlook.
ETHIOPIA: AISE/MoARD had yet at press time to issue

its DAP retender following the scrapping of its earlier tender. The revised session is expected to call for 350400,000 mt bagged DAP for delivery at Djibouti during November through January 2012 rather than the original 750,000 mt in the August 16 tender. There are rumours that AISE is looking to negotiate directly with potential suppliers, namely producers JPMC/Jordan and Sabic/MPC/Saudi Arabia.
13
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: Trammo and an undisclosed buyer shocked the
phosphate market this week with a spot deal for 40,000 mt of DAP at $683/mt CFR for delivery during October. The price is $6/mt above the benchmark contract price reached between PhosChem and other major players supplying key Indian importers for October-March delivery. The product will almost certainly load from China, although the trader has the option of shipping from the US. Assuming the cargo loads from China, the return to the seller would be in the high $640s/mt FOB. The $6/mt spread above Indias contract price essentially would eliminate any margin to the buyer. While the importer had not been identified at press time, there was speculation the player is Zuari at Goa. Zuaris DAP plant at Goa was shut down recently by government order due to phosphoric acid pipeline problems. Phosphate suppliers OCP, JPMC and PhosAgros price agreements for contract DAP cargoes loading for India starting in October through March are adjusted to $677/mt CFR, based on the PhosChem agreement reported last week, according to local sources. OCP may still lift one or two cargos in September for term buyers Zuari/PPL, Chambal and Tata, however, under the prior $612/mt CFR agreement. DAP port arrivals total so far total 2.81 million mt DAP for June trough early September:
DAP PORT ARRIVALS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012 Quantity Discharge Supplier Buyer Vessel mt Port PhosChem IPL Calipso 57,307 Mundra JS Belmar 51,499 Mundra Kang Hing 49,567 Mundra Maroudia 50,485 Mundra Sety 55,093 Mundra Nueva Fortuna 48,863 Mundra Cam Seas 60,457 Mundra Total 373,271 Trammo Zuari Siam Suphire 26,252 Karaikal Yangtze Krishnapatn China Zuari 30,487 Pioneer am Total 56,739 JPMC IPL Thor Harmony 30,000 Mundra Arzanah 26,000 Kandla Al Dhabiyyah 25,400 Kandla Go Star 42,000 Mundra Thor Harmony 40,800 Kandla ID Tide 25,000 Kandla Total China Total Ameropa YUC IPL IPL IPL
Thor Harmony Elina B Amber Beverly Lucky Pearl Vashod II APJ Jai Newlead prosprty Vega Pioneer Frega KT Albatross Atromitos Bao shan Ocean Harmony Santos Success Lu Hai Taba Dariya Brama SH Bright Great Success Spar Capella Papillon Ken Unity July M Despina Equinox Don White Diamond Tripple Star Orion Exp. Falcon Trader Efraim Nemeas II Swtinokola YUC Apr 20 May 05 Jun 02 Jun 24 Jul 12 Jul 21 NFCL E.R. Bern SD Epos Transglobe OCP NFCL Zuari Konkar theo Jin Xing Okyalois Pos Aschat
43,650 43,000 275,850 51,000 51,000 32,359 36,219 54,912 30,038 51,037 27,594 55,037 33,000 26,452 29,579 45,003 29,995 24,415 51,000 26,252 24,699 577,591 49,691 47,813 47,521 49,505 54,000 49,232 48,555 50,101 396,418 36,800 36,800 50,588 53,884 44,000 40,000 52,500 48,001 36,756 53,791 49,000 55,800
Kandla Kandla Karaikal Kandla Kandla Gangavarm Krishnapatn am Krishnapatn am Vizag Krishnapatn am Gangavarm Vizag Vizag Gangavaram Vizag Kandla Gangavaram Vizag Vizag Kandla Mundra Kandla Kandla Mundra Kandla Mundra Mundra Kakinada Bedi Bedi Bedi Bedi Krishnapatn am Krishnapatn am Kakinada Kandla Kandla Kandla
Aug 12 Sep 02 July Jul 16 Aug 15 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 24 Jul 05 Jul 14 Aug 07 Aug 14 Aug 20 Jul 16 Jul 27 Aug 25 Aug 17 Jul 22 Jul 22 May 29 Jun 09 Jun 22 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 20 Aug 03 Aug 20 Jul 16 Jun 01 June July Aug 19 Jun 25 Aug 05 Jul 19 May 29 June June
Continental Sabic Kailin YTH Zhan Hua Total PhosChem
IPL IPL IPL RCF Green Star IFFCO
Arrival Jun 02 Jun 23 Jun 26 Jul 06 Jul 21 Jul 29 Aug 12 Jun 18 Jun 28
Total Ameropa Total PhosChem
IFFCO Mosaic/ TCL
14
OCP Total Dreymoor Dreymoor
TCL
St. George UBC Limas Anapa Saturnus Birch Arrow Captain Kudlly Delfa Azzura Ocean Treasure Hyundai Treasure
Kribhco Zuari
30,804 51,970 50,000 617,094 38,500 38,500 17,850 25,000 15,000 25,000 20,000 50,198 45,000 275,048 26,226 50,319 38,000 35,525 150,070 2,809,881
Kandla Kandla Kandla Mundra Kandla Kandla Kandla Krishnapatn am ECI Karaikal Krishnapatn am
Aug 13 Jun 04 Aug 13 June Jun 18 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 15 Aug 14 June July
Indian buyers have also taken receipt of 1.14 million mt NPK 20-20 during June through August, largely sourced from China. Market rumours continue to point to a new export regime in China to levy a tariff of 110% on exports of NPs and TSP from October 1 in line with the current export policy for DAP/MAP. If ratified, the new tax policy would have a severe impact on imports of NPs in India.
NPK CONTRACTS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012 Supplier Buyer Grade Contracted Quantities ('000 mt) Trammo, China IPL 20:20:0:0 150-200 Quantum, China IPL 20:20:0:0 150 YTH, China IPL 20:20:0:0 100 Dreymoor, China IPL 20:20:0:0 100 Transglobe China IPL 20:20:0:0 50-70 Fertisul, China IPL 16:20:0:13 25 Sinochem, China IPL 20:20:0:0 25 Helm, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 60 Quantum, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 50 Keytrade China Zuari 20:20:0:0 25-30 Dreymoor, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 30 Quantum, China MCFL 20:20:0:0 50 Keytrade, China MCFL 20:20:0:0 25-30 Transfert, China CIL 20:20:0:0 60 Quantum, China CIL 20:20:0:0 35 Trammo, China Nagarjuna 20:20:0:13 50 Fertisul, China Nagarjuna 20:20:0:0 40 TOTAL 1025-1,105 Shipment May Sept May Sept May Sept May - Sept May - Sept June June July June Sept June Sept June July June June Sept July Aug June Aug June June Aug June Sept
Dreymoor Total Quantum Kailin Trammo Total Grand Total
TCL
Maple Ruby SD Epos
Zuari CIL GSFC MCFL
Hana Sam Tiger Harrier Nena J
Kakinada Kakinada Mundra Tuticorin
Jul 07 Jul 20 Aug 05 Jul 02
DAP CONTRACTS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012 Supplier Buyer Contracted Quantities ('000 mt) PhosChem, US IPL/IFFCO 1,000 JPMC, Jordan IPL 300-350 OCP, Morocco Zuari 350 OCP, Morocco Tata 150 PhosChem, US Mosaic 500 YTH, China IPL 300 Dreymoor IPL 150 Sinochem, China IPL 50 Ameropa/Phos Agro IPL/IFFCO 500-600 Sabic/MPC, Saudi Arabia IPL/IFFCO 400 Dreymoor Zuari 150 Sabic/MPC, Saudi Arabia Zuari 200 Trammo Zuari 50-100 YTH, China Tata 100 YTH, China Nagarjuna 50 Kailin, China Coromandel 100 TOTAL 4,350-4,550
Shipment April Sept April Sept April Dec April Dec April Dec June Sept May Sept June Sept May Sept Aug March May Sept Aug Mar June Sept June Sept June Sept June Sept
NEPAL: AICL closed a tender September 7 for 20,000 mt

DAP for October shipment. Results of the tender will be published as they become available. The tonnage is required for arrival at Haldia and Kolkata within 60-80 days from LC issuance or for delivery at the importers inland warehouses within 90-110 days from LC.
BANGLADESH: Quantum has sold 35,000 mt DAP exAustralia for September loading to a buying consortium. Pricing was sketchy at press time but it is understood the business was concluded in the $720s/mt CFR. Quantums DAP export sales ex-Australia to Bangladesh for MaySeptember business totals up to 255,000 mt. There are reports that LCC/Lebanon has sold a 25,000 mt TSP via Ameropa priced on formula as a replacement Tunisian cargo, as GCTs shipment backlog owing to recent production stoppages (see Tunisia update further above).
15
Asia
CHINA: Trammos sale of 40,000 mt of DAP to an Indian
spot buyer for October delivery at $683/mt CFR is likely to be sourced from China, which would provide a netback in the high $640s/mt FOB to the trader. However, it has the option to ship the cargo from the US. Rumours continue to circulate in the market of a new export policy to include NPs and TSP in line with the current tax regime of 110% for DAP/MAP to take effect from October 1. Domestic price indications for DAP have firmed to RMB 3,300-3,350/mt FOT ex-factory while wholesale prices are quoted at RMB 3,500-3,650/mt FOT, up RMB 50/mt compared with last weeks levels. Speculation on the possible new export tax structure for NPs and TSP is reportedly putting downward pressure on the MAP market, where 11-44-0 grade has eased to RMB 2,9002,950/mt FOT compared with last weeks RMB 2,9502,980/mt.
Earlier, PotashCorp reported that a small fire late September 6 resulted in one injury at its Aurora NC phosphate operation. The injured employee was one of the companys first-responder team, trained to respond to emergencies at the plant. In addition, multiple local fire and rescue units responded to the accident. The company still is investigating the cause of the fire that began at 9:50 p.m. and was extinguished by 11:20 p.m. However, the incident has not had any impact on production.
BRAZIL: Moroccos OCP has inked more deals for Brazil,

starting with 60,000 mt of MAP sold at $700-705/mt CFR sold to its partners Bunge and Yara. The product to be shipped is 11-54-0, but the pricing is quoted on a 11-52-0 basis. The return to the seller is likely at around $680/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar based on freight indications at around $20/mt. At press time OCP was expected to begin negotiations shortly with ADM, Fertipar, Heringer, and possibly other importers for further MAP cargos for September lifting.
AUSTRALIA: Incitec Pivot is understood to have finalised

its export program for 2011 following the sale of 35,000 mt DAP for September shipment via Quantum into Bangladesh. The producer will now shift its marketing efforts to the local market, where seasonal demand is set to emerge in late September/early October.
ARGENTINA: Profertil has booked 3,000 mt MAP 1152-0 ex-Morocco of a 25,000 tonner with Quantum at $705/mt CFR. The bulk of the balance tonnage has reportedly been largely placed with two additional buyers at similar pricing. Quantums vessel is currently discharging the tonnes.
Americas
US GULF: Bids and offers for new export DAP business are
at $640-650/mt FOB, with neither suppliers nor endusers interested in finding middle ground at midweek. Buyers in Latin America are aiming to pay about $690/mt CFR for DAP.
Phosphate Rock
INDIA: RCF has awarded its tender for 100,000 mt
phosphate rock to Sunmit for 50,000 mt minimum 29% P2O5 content at $126.95/mt CFR. It is currently negotiating with Sun International for 40,000 mt firm and 20,000 mt and has requested that the supplier matches Sunmit price against its original offer at $135/mt CFR. The tonnes are required for shipment through December.
NEW ORLEANS: The barge market is quiet, and DAP

offers are flat compared to prior weeks at $590-595/st FOB New Orleans.
US EAST COAST: PotashCorp restarted DAP production

at Aurora September 8, one day ahead of its initial indication. DAP output, but not phosphoric acid production, was interrupted after Hurricane Irene struck the North Carolina coast last week.
16
Potash
$/mt
575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300
Potash: key price benchmarks
Market focus shifts towards Q4 business

Market focus is shifting towards Q4 business, with buyers awaiting international producers price initiatives for Q4 deliveries. BPCs target price hike at $25/mt in Southeast Asia is looking set to be accepted by buyers in the region for a new benchmark at $530/mt CFR for and $555/mt CFR for standard and granular MOP, respectively. In Europe, K+S has yet to announce its price policy for Q4 business, but the market anticipates a similar increase as seen in Southeast Asia equating to around 10-15/mt on the Q3 price of 353-363/mt CIF NW Europe for granular grade. In India, NFLs latest tender for 100,000 mt of standard MOP has attracted no offers, as widely anticipated. Highlights of the week: BPCs Q4 target hike at $25/mt in SE Asia set to be accepted; K+S yet to formulate pricing for Q4 business in Europe; BPC to ship 180-210,000 mt granular to Brazil in September; APC sold out through end 2011; Indian technical experts to inspect Belaruskalis assets.
SUMMARY OF POTASH IMPORT TENDERS Importer/ Quantity Closing Shipment Country (mt) date period NFL/ India 100,000 August 29 Sept-Oct Ministry of Agriculture Sri Lanka RCF India 12,000 Standard MOP August 15 October Comments No offers received. Awarded to Dragon Asia at $580.50/mt CFR with 180 days credit Awards at $485/mt CFR with 180 days credit
FOB Vancouver std
CFR Southeast Asia std
CFR Brazil gran
EUROPE
NW EUROPE: K+S has yet to formulate its price policy
for Q4 business. There are suggestions that the German producer along with other suppliers to the region might be seeking to up prices by 10-15/mt for Q4 deliveries on the Q3 price of 353-363/mt CIF NW Europe for granular MOP.
JORDAN: APC is sold out until the end of the 2011,

fulfilling contract commitments with customers in China and India, and term buyers in Southeast Asia. Any spot availabilities will be priced in line with international prices set by key suppliers BPC and Canpotex.
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: As widely expected, no offers were submitted
under NFLs August 29 tender for 100,000 mt of standard MOP. The importers financial standing has been a source of concern and is attributed as the main for the lack of bidders, according to local sources. However, NFL might elect to hold a retender. The tonnes are required for arrival September to October 2011. K+S is set to ship to its first MOP cargo in September under contract to IPL. The German producer has allocated 200,000 mt under Indias 2011/2012 fertilizer year.
470,000 August 12 Standard MOP Note: new entries in bold
Up to December
17
The 2011/2012 MOP supply contract allocation schedule by supplier/buyer is repeated below:
MOP SUPPLY CONTRACTS AUGUST 2011 TO MARCH 2012 Quantity MT Optional 335 34 335 34 300** Total 970 68 ICL IPL 1,000 100 Zuari 240 Coromandel 150 25 Total 1,390 125 APC IPL 375 25 Zuari 200 Total 575 25 IPC IPL 400* RCF 70* 30* MCFL 60* Total 530 30 K&S IPL 200 IPL 1,200 BPC Zuari 400 MMTC (RCF/Kribhco) 200 100 Nagarjuna 150 15 Shriram 60 6 MCFL 60 6 Deepak 60 6 Total 2,130 133 TOTAL 5,795 381 *For shipments up to Dec 2011 **Canpotex is understood to have no material for shipments before December 2011 Supplier Canpotex Buyer Coromandel Tata Chemicals IPL
Asia
CHINA: Domestic wholesale standard red MOP and
standard white MOP prices remain at RMB 3,250-3,280/mt FOT port and at RMB 3,380-3,400/mt FOT, respectively. Port inventories have risen to around 930,000 mt from around 820,000 mt in mid August. The autumn ploughing season is set to run from mid September to mid October, when NPK producers are expected to enter the market. Potential demand for MOP for the autumn application season is expected to support current MOP pricing.
SE ASIA: BPCs price hike target at $25/mt for Q4

business is set to be accepted in the region, setting a new benchmark at $530/mt CFR for standard MOP and $555/mt CFR for granular grade. Canpotex has yet to announce it price initiative for the region.
Americas
US MIDWEST: Despite higher replacement costs from
Canadian and US producers, granular potash is widely available at $570/st FOB from terminals on both sides of the Mississippi River. The producer price list of $590/st FOB has more support in the eastern region.
BRAZIL: BPCs September line-up totals six 30-35,000

mt cargoes of granular MOP for medium-to-large buyers priced at $550-555/mt CFR.
A delegation from India is set to visit Belarus within a month, with a team of technical experts to inspect Belaruskalis production facilities, according to local press reports. It follows an earlier proposal by the Belarus government for a 20% stake in the state-owned potash producer in the form of a $6 billion investment in the company. An Indian delegation visited Belarus in August to discuss the terms of the proposition. Russian potash producer Uralkali has also been linked as potential bidder for a stake in Belaruskali.
18
Sulphur
Adnoc announces $5/mt increase for September

Adnoc issued its September contract price at $220/mt FOB Ruwais, a $5/mt increase on August and reflects a strengthening in the market buoyed by recent spot business out of the Middle East to India and China in particular. This can be seen further in FACTs September 5 tender, which is likely to be awarded around $245/mt CFR, which is a $5/mt increase on its August 17 tender award at $240/mt CFR. Reliance has awarded its September 7 export tender to Swiss Singapore at an undisclosed price, but given the direction of the market, it could see an increase on the previous Reliance tender held August 4, awarded at $205/mt FOB. China remains steady with imports remaining around the $235-240/mt CFR level. The argument persists that inventory levels remain low, hence end-users must return to the market. With the fourth quarter looming, it remains to be seen to what extent this will have an impact on the market, or whether the state of flux between buyers and suppliers will endure through the end of 2011. Highlights of the week: Adnoc issues September price at $220/mt FOB; FACT set to award September 5 tender at $245/mt CFR; Reliance awards September 7 tender to Swiss Singapore at undisclosed price; Chinas import price steady at $235-240/mt CFR Quarter four contract talks approaching.
$/mt
245 240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 200 195 190
SULPHUR EXPORT TENDERS: SHIPMENT JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011 Exporter/ Quantity Closing Shipment Comments Country (mt) date period Reliance 25,000 mt Sep 7 September Swiss Singapore India granular price not known at press time IGCC 30,000 Aug 28 1H Sep Bids reported in the Iran crushedmid $190s/mt FOB. lump Award to be issued TCO 25,000 Aug 18 Aug 25-30 Reportedly awarded to Kazakhstan granular OCP in the $230s/mt CFR IGCC 25,000 Aug 16 End Aug Awarded to Havi at Iran flaky above $200/mt FOB IGCC 7,000 Aug 8 End Aug/ Awarded to Havi at Iran grey Early Sep above $200/mt FOB granular Reliance 25,000 Aug 4 End Aug Awarded to Quantum India granular at $205/mt FOB Reliance 25,000 July 13 Aug Awarded around India $195/mt FOB KHPC 25,000 July 5 Jul Awarded to Swiss Iran granular Singapore at around $202-205/mt FOB IGCC 30,000 July 11 Jul Not yet announced Iran granular Raintrade 30,000 July 8 Jul Awarded at $195/mt Iran granular FOB KHPC 25,000 June Jul 1 Awarded at around Iran granular 24 $200/mt FOB Reliance 25,000 June 1H Jul Awarded to Mitsui at India granular 17 around $210/mt FOB Note: new entries in bold SULPHUR IMPORT TENDERS: SHIPMENT JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011 Importer/ Quantity Closing Shipment Comments Country (mt) date period FACT 25,000 Sep 05 Sep/Oct Not yet awarded India granular PPL India FACT India Andhra Sugar India RCF India FACT India PPL India 35,000 granular 25,000 granular 9,000 granular 10,000 crushedlump 25,000 granular 35,000 granular Aug 17 Aug 17 Aug 16 Aug 16 June 22 Jun 8 1H Sep Late Aug Early Sep Early Sep Early July July 11-14 Awarded to Midgulf at $237.50/mt CFR Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $240/mt CFR Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $240/mt CFR Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $237.50/mt CFR Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $232/mt CFR Awarded to Midgulf at $243/mt CFR.
Sulphur: key price benchmarks
FOB Adnoc monthly
CFR India ex-Middle East
FOB Middle East - spot
Note: new entries in bold
19
Europe
FRANCE: Total is set to resume molten sulphur deliveries to
GCT/Tunisia under contract from mid September.
TUNISIA: Sources indicate that GCT is now running

DAP production at around 50% at Gabes. TSP production at Mdhilla is running close to capacity.
SOUTH AFRICA: ICEC shipped September 6, 42,000

mt granular sulphur ex-Jubail to South Africa on the Sanko Mercury.

UAE: As indicated earlier this week, Adnocs new contract price
for September business was posted at $220/mt FOB Ruwais, up $5/mt on the August price. The new price reflects current spot business ex-Middle East on the back of a rebounding international market.
ADNOC: MONTHLY CONTRACT PRICES ($/MT FOB) JAN 2008-SEP 2011 Month 2011 2010 2009 2008 January February March April May June July August September October November December 165 190 210 225 240 240 225 215 220 110 165 210 170 145 NA* 65 110 160 170 175 165 50 35 45 50 50 40 35 33 40 45 50 57 495 600 640 670 720 800 820 770 580 200 NA* 50
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: Reliance has awarded its September 7 sales
tender for 25,0000 mt granular sulphur for September shipment to Swiss Singapore at an undisclosed price. Its August 4 tender was awarded at $205/mt FOB to Quantum. IFFCO has booked 30-35,000 mt granular sulphur exMiddle East with Mitsubishi for end September/early October loading at $237-238/mt CFR Kandla. The cargo is likely to be sourced from Adnoc/UAE or Aramco/Saudi Arabia. IFFCO has also booked 23,000 mt granular sulphur on the Zulal with Transfert in the mid-to-high $230s/mt CFR. The cargo will be loaded from Ruwais mid September. Earlier, IFFCO purchased two 30,000 mt spot cargoes of granular sulphur ex-Middle East at $232-233/mt CFR for 1H September delivery at Paradip. FACTs September 5 tender has yet to be awarded. The tender has attracted offers from Swiss Singapore and Transfert. The business is likely to be awarded to Transfert, which submitted the lowest offer at $245/mt CFR Cochin. However, the offer has been submitted on a cash payment basis and not with 180 days credit as requested by the importer. Adnoc is said to be supporting the offer at $220/mt FOB Ruwais based on the producers price declared September 6. An award is expected to be issued September 12. The cargo is required for October 21-24 delivery at Cochin so shipment would need to be effected by October 9-10. The previous tender, held August 17, also for 25,000 mt granular sulphur was awarded to Swiss Singapore at $239.25/mt CFR basis cash payment Cochin ex-Middle East. FACT has received 27,000 mt granular sulphur on the Arrilah from Swiss Singapore. This came under the August 17 tender which was awarded at $239/mt CFR Cochin.
* NA- not announced/not published
SAUDI ARABIA: It is understood Aramco sold a 30,000

mt spot cargo to a Japanese trader, which was placed with IFFCO at around $236/mt CFR. The Zenith is set to depart Jubail September 10 with 38,786 mt granular sulphur for China.
IRAN: IGCC has yet to award its August 28 sales tender for
30,000 mt crushed-lump sulphur for 1H September shipment, which attracted bids in the mid $190s/mt FOB Bandar Abbas. There are rumours suggesting that the delay in the award stems from logistical problems between the Khangiran refinery and the Bandar Abbas port. Sources indicate the tender could be postponed or scrapped/
20
INDIA: SULPHUR PORT ARRIVALS JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011 Supplier Swiss Singapore Transfert Swiss Singapore Swiss Singapore Mitsubishi ETA Swiss Singapore Swiss Singapore Origin Kuwait UAE Iran Iran Qatar Bahrain Qatar Iran Buyer IFFCO various Tata Chemicals IFFCO IFFCO SSP CFL FACT IFFCO Midgulf Total UAE PPL Quantity (mt) 32,996 22,000 13,000 27,211 31,499 3,500 Vessel Marbelelle Zulal N Arrival Discharg e port
Americas
CANADA: Despite settling with South African buyers in
recent weeks within the $230-240/mt FOB range, there is no indication that suppliers have concluded any Q3 contracts with Chinese buyers. Some sources suggest price ideas remain too marked.
Sep 03 Paradip Aug 28 Mumbai
Sun Aug 12 Haldia Enterprise Sun Aug 8 Paradip Enterprise Rogue Nadeem July 25 Paradip July 16 Kandla Vizag Cochin Paradip Paradip
US GULF: PotashCorp has unveiled plans to build a new

sulphur melting plant at its facility in Aurora, Beaufort City according to local reports. Plans include two steam-heated sulphur melting plant, with two smokestack scrubbing systems. The announcement follows the failed attempt to establish a sulphur melting plant in Morehead City following public backlash.
22,000 Tai Harmony July 13 27,000 16,355 35,551 231,112 Sattar Southern Condor July 12 July 1
BRAZIL: The market is fully covered to the end of

September. One or two buyers have expressed interest for October business and are indicating bids in the mid $240s/mt CFR. Brazils import programme is pegged at around 2.3 million mt for the whole of 2011.
Ocean Jade July 1
Asia
CHINA: Price ideas are pegged to last weeks levels at
$235-240/mt CFR for granular sulphur sourced from the Middle East. Last week, Swiss Singapore sold a part cargo of 10-12,000 mt granular sulphur to a local trader at $240/mt CFR. In the domestic market, prices in eastern and southern China remain stable at RMB 1,780-1,840/mt FOT ex-factory while in the northeast regional market tighter availability is reported, which has seen prices go up by RMB 50/mt on last weeks levels to RMB 1,850/mt FOT ex-factory. At major ports Qingdao, Nantong and Fangcheng latest price indications are reported RMB 10/mt firmer at RMB 1,830-1,870/mt FOT on the back of offers above $240/mt CFR from international suppliers. Port inventories are estimated at 1.4 million mt compared with 1.42 million mt September 1.
TAIWAN: Formosas 540,000 barrels/day refinery in Mailiao

is expected to re-start production. The plant produces around 30,000 mt/month sulphur, which is used in throughout the region to produce sulphuric acid.
21
Sulphuric Acid
Market balanced as Noracid remains down

Strong fundamentals continue to keep the sulphuric acid market healthy. Downstream demand is strong, with prices for base metals at a consistently high level, whilst supply is well balanced following the conclusion of a number of turnarounds in the first half in Europe. Highlights of the week: Market stays balanced Noracid possibly start-up September 13 Tuticorin receives environmental conditions The Sterlite Tuticorin saga has reached some form of conclusion, with the copper smelter being given a range of environmental conditions by the Supreme Court to adhere to, otherwise it risks being shutdown. This resolution should alleviate fears domestic Indian buyers may have had about losing material. Moreover, the Noracid sulphur burning plant remains down, though sources indicate repairs are going well, which should see no repeat of the protracted start-up of the plant witnessed earlier this year. Spot activity has not increased as originally suggested, as Chilean customers are well covered for September.
DAP FOB Tampa & CFR India Price History
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
On phosphates, further price rises were achieved this week, with a spot deal concluded at $683/mt CFR, from $677/mt CFR last week and $612/mt CFR the week before. CRUs Base Metal price index meanwhile remains stable.
CRU Base Metals Index
250 200 150 100
50
0
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
$/mt
195 180 165
Sulphuric Acid: key price benchmarks
150 135 120

105 90 75 60 45
FOB NW Europe
CFR US Gulf
CFR Chile - spot
Europe
NW EUROPE: As in recent weeks, the market in Europe
is quiet and well balanced during the holiday season. Following the turnarounds in the 1H, there is more availability expected, though in general the market is tight and spot is limited.
FOB DAP Tampa ($/mt)
CFR DAP India ($/mt)
22
ITALY: An Italian supplier is set to deliver its latest cargo of

4,000 mt sulphuric acid to GCT/Tunisia this week under an existing contract arrangement. The price is understood to be around $75/mt CFR.
INDIA: SULPHURIC ACID IMPORTS JUNE-SEPTEMBER 2011 Supplier Origin Buyer Quantity Vessel Arrival Discharge (mt) port Southern IFFCO 13,500 Sept 20 Paradip Royal Hindalco Hindalco Hindalco China India Japan India Isabel, Philippines Dahej PPL CIL CIL Sterlite IFFCO PPL CIL CFL IFFCO IFFCO IFFCO IFFCO IFFCO 19,000 Global Peace Sept 09 7,500 Gem of Dahej Sept 04 Sept 01 Aug 25 Aug24 Aug 19 Aug 18 Aug 16 Paradip Vizag Dahej Tuticorin Paradip Dahej Dahej

TUNISIA: Sources indicate that GCT is now running DAP
production at around 50% at Gabes. TSP production at Mdhilla is running close to capacity.
7,000 Stolt Bosan 3,000 Stolt Bosan 19,000 10,000 Global Samnar Majesty Sichem Defender Samnar Majesty Sanmar Majesty
Aug 30 Kakinada
MALAWI: Australias Paladin Energy has announced the

start-up of the Kayelekera uranium plant has been delayed by one week as a result of its drying and packaging plant being temporarily offline. The project features a 230 mt/day sulphuric acid plant, which is also undergoing maintenance involving pipe repairs and other structural works to mitigate problems caused by earth movement. Once production recommences next week, existing acid inventories will be supplemented by purchased sulphuric acid untilt he work on the acid plant is completed next month.
12,000 Southern Lion 19,000
15,000 MT Shantou 4,000 9,000
Aug 08 Kakinada July 25 July 20 July 13 July 11 Vizag Paradip Paradip Paradip Paradip Paradip -
23,096 Bow Baha 18,900 13,655 Fanchem Mistry Southern Hawk Bow Lima Fairchem Birdie
Indian Subcontinent
INDIA: The Supreme Court this week has reserved its
judgement over the stay of closure of Sterlite Coppers Tuticorin copper smelter. This follows the report submitted by the Tamil Nadu government suggesting measures to be taken up by Sterlite to fulfil compliance with the environmental standards. The Court will direct the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to issue notice to Sterlite to follow the environmental measures, and warned that any non-compliance would lead to the closure of the copper plant. FACT is understood to be in talks with Hindalco Dahej for the supply of sulphuric acid. As reported previously, the company is still working on rectifying a technical issue with its sulphuric acid tanks. Work has been hampered by heavy rainfall during the Monsoon season. Once the problem has been resolved, the company is expected to reissue its tender for 9,000 mt for shipment to Cochin. Though there are reports that Sterlite could be awarded the tender. FACT requires around 100,000 mt/year of imported sulphuric acid for its fertilizer operations. No new acid vessels have arrived at port since last week.
23,946 Ginga Cougar June 15 29,000 18,500 June 5 June 2
Asia
CHINA: Sulphuric acid prices continue to diversify in
regional markets. In Eastern China market, some plants lowered their ex factory price due to inactive response from clients. And some newly built acid operations, which are mainly sulphur burners and located in Henan province, are selling into coastal provinces, placing pressure on existing players. In Yunnan, acid production was impacted by the case of pollution caused by dumping chromium sediment in August. Some acid operations have stopped production for maintenance. But in adjacent province Guizhou, some acid plants planned to cut production due to declined demand from manganese industry. Prices in Eastern China are at RMB 560-650/mt ex factory
23
Sources indicate export prices for acid out of China is steady at $90/mt FOB.
TAIWAN: Formosas 540,000 barrels/day refinery in Mailiao

is expected to re-start production. The plant produces around 30,000 mt/month sulphur, which is used in throughout the region to produce sulphuric acid.
Americas
US GULF: Phosphate Holdings, in its Q2 2011 financial
results announced the damaged heat exchanger in one of its sulphuric acid plants will be replaced during a scheduled October 2011 turnaround. Damaged heat exchangers saw the company need to purchase larger volumes of sulphuric acid for DAP production than planned, causing a negative impact on its financial results in the second quarter.
MEXICO: Fertinal has issued an enquiry for two shipments

of 20,000 mt in the fourth quarter, with the first to arrive October. It is understood at least five offers have been received.
CHILE: It is understood the Noracid plant remains down,

and is likely to stay down until September 15. Spot demands remain minimal as all customers are covered for the time being. Outotec has signed a contract with Codelco for the design and delivery of concentrator technology to Codelcos new Mina Ministro Hales in northern Chile. The contract value is EUR 24 million ($33.7 million) This follows earlier contracts signed between Outotec and Codelco in 2010 and 2011, which includes the delivery of copper concentrate and sulphuric acid plant.
24
FERTILIZER | WEEK FULL PRICE ASSESSMENTS UREA FOB prilled bulk Black Sea Baltic Sea** Bulgaria/Croatia/Romania* Middle East* Indonesia China China FOT ex-factory (Rmb/mt) China FOT wholesale (Rmb/mt) UREA CFR prilled bulk Mediterranean (duty paid) India Vietnam Philippines East Coast Central America Brazil UREA FOB granular bulk Middle East Egypt FOB/FOT France (/mt)* Malaysia Indonesia New Orleans barge (st) Venezuela/Trinidad UREA CFR granular bulk Mediterranean (duty paid) Southeast Asia South Korea AMMONIUM SULPHATE FOB bulk Black Sea standard Black Sea white NITRATES AN FOB bulk Black Sea AN FOB bulk Baltic Sea AN FOT bagged UK (/mt) AN FOT bagged France (/mt) AN DEL bulk France (/mt) AN FOB bulk New Orleans CAN CIF Germany (/mt) CAN CIF Benelux (/mt) UAN FOB Black Sea 32% UAN FOT Rouen 30% (/mt) UAN FOT Germany 28% (/mt)*** UAN FOB New Orleans (st) UAN CFR US East Coast SULPHUR FOB dry bulk Vancouver spot Vancouver 2H 2011 Middle East spot Middle East Q3 2011 Middle East 2H 2011 Adnoc monthly September Black Sea China FOT port (Rmb/mt) China FOT ex-factory (Rmb/mt) SULPHUR CFR dry bulk China spot China Q3 2011 India ex-Middle East North Africa 2H 2011 Mediterranean (excl. domestic contracts) Mediterranean (incl. North Africa) Brazil LIQUID SULPHUR CPT NW Europe truckload 2H 2011 FOB Tampa (lt) Q3 2011 CFR Benelux barge/railcar 2H 2011 SULPHURIC ACID CFR NW Europe 2H 2011 (/mt) FOB NW Europe CFR Turkey CFR Tunisia contract CFR US Gulf CFR Brazil CFR Chile spot CFR Chile contract Sep 08 500 - 510 490 - 495 515 - 520 510 - 515 499 - 511 495 - 505 2160 - 2220 2200 - 2250 540 518 505 510 520 518 505 550 390 490 506 507 505 - 545 - 523 - 532 - 525 - 528 - 523 - 527 - 550 - 400 - 510 - 507 - 512 - 515 AMMONIA FOB Sep 08 Sep 01 Black Sea 555 - 570 555 - 555 Ventspils 575 - 585 555 - 565 Middle East spot# 545 - 550 535 - 545 Middle East (India) contract 510 - 520 508 - 516 New Orleans barge (st) 550 - 570 550 - 570 Caribbean 550 - 550 550 - 550 AMMONIA CFR Southern Europe (duty paid)* 620 - 630 600 - 610 NW Europe (duty paid)* 625 - 640 615 - 625 540 - 548 Morocco* 615 - 625 600 - 610 518 - 523 India 548 - 558 535 - 546 520 - 545 South Korea/Taiwan 620 - 630 600 - 610 500 - 520 Southeast Asia 630 - 650 590 - 620 520 - 530 US Gulf 590 - 590 590 - 590 515 - 525 Tampa 590 - 590 590 - 590 DAP FOB bulk 502 - 515 Tampa/US Gulf 650 - 660 625 - 655 545 - 546 Central Florida (st) 585 - 585 585 - 585 385 - 395 New Orleans barge (st) 590 - 595 590 - 595 490 - 505 Baltic/Black Sea 690 - 695 690 - 695 506 - 507 Jordan*** 575 - 578 575 - 578 502 - 507 Tunisia nm - nm nm - nm 505 - 515 Morocco 698 - 707 698 - 705 Saudi Arabia 685 - 685 690 - 700 545 - 555 China 645 - 650 630 - 640 China FOT ex-factory bagged (Rmb/mt)## 515 - 525 3300 - 3350 3250 - 3300 510 - 520 China FOT wholesale (Rmb/mt) 3500 - 3650 3500 - 3600 FOB/FOT Terneuzen/Ghent 735 - 745 735 - 745 170 - 180 DAP CFR bulk 220 - 225 India 677 - 683 677 - 677 Pakistan 690 - 700 690 - 700 315 - 320 Argentina/Uruguay 705 - 710 710 - 720 315 - 320 MAP bulk 305 - 315 FOB Baltic/Black Sea 690 - 695 690 - 695 305 - 315 CFR Brazil 700 - 705 705 - 710 335 - 340 China FOT ex-factory 11-44-0 (Rmb/mt) 2900 - 2950 3000 - 3050 345 - 355 China FOT ex-factory 10-50-0 (Rmb/mt) 3100 - 3200 3100 - 3200 263 - 273 GTSP FOB bulk 259 - 269 Tunisia nm - nm nm - nm 325 - 340 Morocco*** 560 - 570 560 - 570 243 - 248 FOB/FOT Benelux 610 - 620 620 - 630 200 - 210 PHOSPHORIC ACID (MGA) $/mt P2O5 345 - 355 FOB North Africa 970 - 1130 970 - 1130 375 - 378 CFR India 1050 - 1050 1050 - 1050 CFR NW Europe 1200 - 1205 1200 - 1205 200 - 220 CFR Mediterranean 1180 - 1185 1180 - 1185 230 - 235 PHOSPHATE ROCK bulk 210 - 220 FOB Morocco (65-75% BPL) 190 - 205 190 - 205 205 - 220 CFR India (72-75% BPL) 205 - 210 205 - 210 210 - 215 CFR India (68-70% BPL) 150 - 190 150 - 190 215 - 215 NPK bulk 190 - 220 16-16-16 FOB Baltic Sea 487 - 495 485 - 495 1820 - 1860 17-17-17 DEL France (/mt) 455 - 462 455 - 463 1760 - 1860 15-15-15 CIF Germany (/mt) 385 - 392 385 - 395 20-10-10 DEL bagged UK (/mt) 315 - 320 315 - 320 235 - 240 15-15-15-CL FOT ex-factory China (Rmb/mt) 2700 - 2800 2650 - 2700 230 - 240 15-15-15-S FOT ex-factory China (Rmb/mt) 2900 - 2950 2800 - 2900 232 - 240 MOP FOB bulk 235 - 240 Vancouver standard 425 - 515 425 - 515 120 - 150 Vancouver granular 440 - 530 440 - 530 165 - 175 Jordan/Israel standard 435 - 510 435 - 510 240 - 250 Baltic Sea standard 415 - 510 415 - 510 Baltic Sea granular 430 - 525 430 - 525 240 - 260 China FOT port wholesalestandard (Rmb/mt) 3250 - 3400 3250 - 3400 220 - 220 MOP CFR bulk 220 - 235 Brazil granular 550 - 560 550 - 560 China standard 470 - 470 470 - 470 90 - 110 DAF Russia/China cross-border standard 420 - 430 420 - 430 100 - 110 India standard (180 days) 470 - 490 470 - 490 130 - 140 Southeast Asia standard 500 - 510 500 - 510 75 - 85 CIF NW Europe granular (/mt) 353 - 363 353 - 363 140 - 150 SOP FOB/FOT bulk 150 - 155 NW Europe standard (/mt) 390 - 410 390 - 410 160 - 170 FERTILIZER | WEEK compiles prices each Thursday in consultation with producers, consumers and traders. 90 - 125 Prices are in US dollars and on a FOB or CFR basis, unless otherwise stated. Sep 01 488 - 495 478 - 495 518 - 525 502 - 510 499 - 511 495 - 505 2100 - 2160 2150 - 2220
While all reasonable efforts are taken to ensure the reliability of the data, FW does not guarantee its accuracy or take liability for the results obtained by using the data.
545 - 555 525 - 532 528 - 532 170 - 180 218 - 224 310 310 305 300 340 345 263 259 320 245 200 345 375 200 230 210 205 210 220 190 1830 1780 235 230 235 235 120 165 240 - 320 - 320 - 315 - 310 - 340 - 355 - 273 - 269 - 335 - 250 - 210 - 355 - 378 - 220 - 235 - 220 - 220 - 215 - 220 - 220 - 1870 - 1860 - 240 - 240 - 240 - 240 - 150 - 175 - 250
240 - 260 220 - 220 220 - 235 90 100 130 75 140 150 160 90 - 110 - 110 - 140 - 85 - 150 - 155 - 170 - 125
Legend: nm=no market; *indicative; **revised; ***no recent business 38-42%, 24-25% export tax rates; reflects latest quarterly contracts September 08, 2011 Reproduction & Distribution Prohibited less than 10K mt; over 10K mt; #Iran excluded; ##excludes export sales Forex: 1=$1.4 / $1=RMB6.38 / 1=$1.61
Bery Freight Indicators September 8, 2011

Product / Route UREA Yuzhnyy - Turkey Yuzhnyy - Mundra Yuzhnyy - WC India Yuzhnyy - Brazil Yuzhnyy - EC Mexico Yuzhnyy - WC Mexico Baltic - WC India Baltic - Brazil Baltic - EC Mexico Baltic - WC Mexico Middle East - WC India Middle East - Vietnam Middle East Mississippi River, US* North China - EC India DAP/MAP Tampa - WC India Tampa - Pakistan Tampa - Brazil Baltic - Brazil Red Sea - WC India Tunisia - Pakistan Tunisia - Turkey Morocco - Brazil MOP Vancouver - China Vancouver - SE Asia Vancouver - Brazil Baltic - China Baltic - WC India Baltic - Brazil Red Sea - WC India SULPHUR Vancouver - China Vancouver - Brazil Middle East - WC India Middle East - China Middle East - Morocco Black Sea - Morocco Vessel Size (mt) 10-15,000 55-60,000 35-45,000 25-30,000 25-30,000 25-30,000 35-45,000 25-30,000 25-30,000 25-30,000 15-25,000 20-25,000 40-45,000 20-25,000 50-60,000 35-40,000 20-25,000 25-30,000 15-25,000 25-30,000 10-15,000 25-30,000 50-60,000 30-40,000 40-50,000 50-60,000 35-45,000 25-30,000 15-25,000 50-60,000 40-50,000 15-25,000 30-35,000 35-40,000 25-30,000 Loading / Discharge rates 8,000c / 3,000c 10,000c / 10,000c 10,000c / 10,000c 8,000c / 5,000c 8,000c / 3,000c 8,000c / 4,000c 8,000c / 10,000c 8,000c / 5,000c 8,000c / 3,000c 8,000c / 4,000c 6,000x / 6,000x 6,000x / 2,500x 6,000x / 8,000c 3,000c / 5,000x 8,000c / 10,000c 8,000c / 3,500x 8,000c / 5,000c 8,000c / 5,000c 8,000x / 6,000x 6,000x / 3,500x 6,000x / 3,000c 7,500x / 5,000c 12,000c / 10,000c 12,000c / 10,000c 12,000c / 10,000c 8,000c / 6,000c 8,000c / 10,000c 8,000c / 5,000c 8,000x / 6,000x 12,000c / 10,000c 12,000c / 10,000c 8,000x / 6,000x 8,000x / 6,000c 10,000c / 5,000x 8,000c / 5,000x 19 32 37 32 35 52 58 34 33 50 19 35 25 34 49 77 38 34 31 48 19 22 25 44 31 49 58 34 31 25 31 19 28 29 21 Sep 08 Freight ($/t) Sep 01 21 34 39 34 37 54 60 36 35 52 21 37 35 35 51 79 40 36 33 50 21 24 27 46 33 51 60 36 33 27 33 21 30 31 23 19 32 38 33 36 53 57 34 33 50 20 37 25 35 50 79 38 34 33 47 20 20 23 43 31 49 57 34 33 23 31 20 29 29 21 21 34 40 35 38 55 59 36 35 52 22 39 35 35 52 81 40 36 35 49 22 22 25 45 33 51 59 36 35 25 33 22 31 31 23
FW Freight Indicators Sep 8, 2011

Product / Route UAN Black Sea - EC US Black Sea - French Atlantic AMMONIA Yuzhnyy - US Tampa Yuzhnyy - NW Europe Yuzhnyy - S Europe Yuzhnyy - Morocco Baltic - NW Europe Middle East - WC India Middle East - EC India Vessel Size (mt) 17-27,000 17-27,000 30-35,000 20-25,000 10-15,000 20-25,000 10-15,000 20-25,000 20-25,000 34 32 67 51 35 39 24 26 42 Sep 08 Freight ($/t) 35 32 68 52 35 38 25 28 45 Sep 01 40 36 74 55 40 42 30 34 53
39 35 73 53 40 43 28 32 50
* low end CoA, high end spot; ** revised; ice conditions not considered
Spot basis; nm: no market. Disclaimer: All prices are estimates only and do not reflect actual transactions. All rates are in US dollars per tonne and are net of any war-risk premiums that may be imposed. FERTILIZER WEEK does not guarantee the reliability or the accuracy of the information.
For a tailor-made freight guide to meet your particular needs, please contact BERY MARITIME directly. Tel: + 47 23 11 35 00 (Norway) // Tel:+86 755 2689 7049 (China) Fax: +47 23 11 35 10 // E-mail: BERY@BERY.NO
Disclaimer: The freight assessments above are provided in good faith by Bery Maritime AS, a leading Fertilizer Freight Consultancy/Broker. While all reasonable efforts are taken to ensure the reliability of the data, Bery Maritime does not guarantee its accuracy nor take liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information, opinion and/or estimates in this Freight Guide.
26
CRU International Ltd. 31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD, United Kingdom Fax: +44 20 7903 2139 Web: www.fertilizerweek.com Editor-in-Chief/Publisher: NATALIE NOOR-DRUGAN Tel: +44 20 7903 2421 natalie.noor-drugan@crugroup.com Managing Editor: MAGNUS BERGE Tel: +44 20 7903 2422 magnus.berge@crugroup.com Senior Markets Editor: LARS TAARLAND Tel: +47 99 58 17 40 lars@adriatic.no lars.taarland@crugroup.com Markets Editor: DAVID MAITLAND Tel: +44 20 7903 2015 david.maitland@crugroup.com Markets Editor: CHRISTOPHER SELL Tel: +44 20 7903 2142 christopher.sell@crugroup.com North America Senior Editor / Assistant Publisher: BK MORRIS Tel: +1 301 441 4724 bk.morris@crugroup.com Consultant Advisors: KEN NYIRI PAUL BURNSIDE MARINA SIMONOVA EVGENIA APOSTOLOPOULOU
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. @ 2011 CRU International Ltd ISSN 0951-7472. 50 issues per year. Subscription enquiries and payments direct to: Meninder Kaur CRU International Ltd. Customer Services Tel: +44 20 7903 2029 Fax: +44 20 7903 2172 Email: customer.services@crugroup.com
27
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+1 212 634 6424 +44 20 7090 1122
FIS Daily Fertiliser Report 7-Sep-11

Urea (gran) fob bulk Egypt (mt) Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (mt)
Per
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Q4 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11
Bid 540 541 540 541 508 511 510 510 502 590 592 590 583 555 585 610
Offer 549 547 546 547 515 515 515 515 510 596 600 600 600 570 615 630
Mid 545 544 543 544 512 513 513 513 506 593 596 595 592 563 600 620
Chg 0 -1 -2 0 3 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Basis ('000s)
Per
Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Q4 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11
Bid 497 500 502 501 357 357 358 355 354 640 640 638 635 240 241 233
Offer 505 507 506 508 365 362 362 361 363 650 653 655 650 250 260 257
5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 3 st 1.5 st 1.5 st 5 st 5 st 1.5 st 1.5 st 1.5 st 1.5 st 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt
Mid 501 504 504 505 361 360 360 358 359 645 647 647 643 245 251 245
Chg 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0
Basis ('000s)
5mt 5mt 5 mt 5 mt 3 st 4 st 5 st 5 st 5 st 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt 5 mt
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (st)
UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (st)
DAP fob NOLA (st)
DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne)
Ammonia cfr Tampa (mt)
UAN(30%) FOT Rouen (mt)
Commentary
Activity increased for Yuzhnyy and Egypt Urea heading into the end of the year. Yuzhnyy Urea traded for October at $504 and for November at $502. Egypt Urea for October traded at $543 and at $544. Activity in Nola Urea was subdued at these current price levels, market participantsawaiting direction from the physical marketand all eyes are begining to focus on next weeks WASDE report.
Urea Historical Price and Forward Curve
DAP Historical Price and Forward Curve
530 480 430 380 330 280
700 650 600 550 500 450
Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne)
Forward curve fob Yuzhnyy
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton)
Forward curve fob NOLA
DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne)
Forward Curve DAP fob Tampa
DAP fob NOLA (short ton)
Forward Curve DAP fob NOLA
This comment and analysis has been prepared by FIS for the purpose of trading and may have been acted upon by FIS and its officers, employees and its associated companies and is distributed to customers and to the general public for information purposes only and cannot be relied upon as a trading recommendation and does not constitute a solicitation to trade. FIS Ltd. is regulated by the FSA. 2011 Freight Investor Services Limited

FWThursday Markets Report 08 Sep 2011

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September 8, 2011

Click on the section heading to jump to that section

Uncertainty over Chinese exports boosts urea prices

Yara to post French AN prices shortly

Prices surge to possible point of overheating

SULPHUR & H2SO4

Indian DAP spot purchase wakes up sleepy market

FACT to award tender at $245/mt CFR Noracid down until mid-September

Full Price Assessments Freight Indications FIS Cash Settled Swaps

500 490 510 505 495 507

510 495 515 527 505 512

488 478 502 502 495 502

555 545 590 590 310

570 550 590 590 320

555 535 590 590 315

555 545 590 590 320

7.5 7.5 = = -2.5

Urea: key price benchmarks

375 350 325

650 690 698 685 645 677

660 695 707 685 650 683

625 690 698 690 630 677

655 695 705 700 640 677

15.0 = 1.0 -10.0 12.5 3.0

FOB Black Sea prills

FOB Middle East granular

FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)

Click on the graph to jump to that section

Highlights of the week

Uncertainty over Chinese exports boosts prices

Urea: key price benchmarks

FOB Black Sea prills

FOB Middle East granular

FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)

Urea Tender Update

Trader Indagro Fitco Helm Keytrade Helm Toepfer Keytrade

22,000 50,000 5,397 228,531

Eta 12/16 Sep Eta 16/18 Sep

BALTIC SEA: Ameropa is linked with the purchase of

Middle East & Africa

PAKISTAN: TCP is expected to issue a further tender

SRI LANKA: A Ministry of Agriculture tender for 24,000

NEPAL: Details of offers submitted in the September 7

BANGLADESH: BCIC did still not confirm purchases

EGYPT: MOPCO booked 25,000 mt with Trammo at

ETHIOPIA: AISE/MoARD has further delayed its revised

US MIDWEST: Warehouse prices for granular urea

THAILAND: Demand for granular urea remains marred by

US SOUTHERN PLAINS: Effective September 3,

VIETNAM: Vietnamese buying continues with pricing

MEXICO: A group of buyers on the East Coast are

INDONESIA: Pusri Holding is yet to announce additional

SOUTH KOREA: Namhae booked a mere 5,000 mt

CHILE: Ameropa is in the freight market for a cargo of

Abu Qir secures improved netback September 5

Yara yet to follow GPN in posting French AN

US MIDWEST: Suppliers are trying to inch UAN prices

TURKEY: Igsas booked 6-12,000 mt ammonium nitrate

FSU producers aim higher on increased demand

(1) 10,000t Cherkassy + 25,000t Kemerovo

Highlights of the week

Prices surge to a point where overheating may be an issue