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Jackson vanik will pass but there will be fights Sanati 3/19/12 [Cyrus Sanati is a contributor for Forbes magazine; The normalization of trade between the
United States and Russia could prove to be quite lucrative for both Main Street and Wall Street.; http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/03/19/russia-trade/]
On Capitol Hill last week, senators debated the merits of lifting Cold War-era trade sanctions against Mother Russia. Plenty of U.S. companies are eager to see this happen. The trade barriers are widely expected to fall this year, and when they do it will be a net positive for U.S. trade. Russia's creaky and inefficient economy -- from its sad agriculture collectives to its rusty automotive industry -- won't likely be able to compete against the larger and more efficient U.S. industrial and retail firms. Meanwhile, Wall Street could benefit from coaxing U.S. investors to take a second look at Russia, while at the same time convincing Russian firms to consider New York as the place to raise capital or go public. Before any of this can happen, however, the two countries will

have to work through the numerous barriers and prejudices that have existed between them for nearly a century. Russia's ascension into the World Trade Organization took 18 years. It first applied in 1993 after the nation shrugged off its
communist past and moved to capitalism and it was invited to join the WTO late last year. The transition from a centrally-planned economy to the free market has not been easy. Corruption and backroom dealings have become the norm as the nation's billionaire oligarchs violently protect their turf by any means necessary. From a debt default in 1998 to the invasion of Georgia in 2008, there was always a solid reason for U.S. investors to hold back from the Russian market. The losers in all of this mess have been the Russian people. Russia's economy has not progressed or modernized as it should have and is still highly dependent on energy and mineral exports to keep the nation afloat (Russia is the world's largest oil exporter). High tariffs are imposed to protect certain large and inefficient industries, especially the automotive industry. Doing business in Russia is also difficult given the nation's notoriously corrupt political and judicial structure. Things got so bad that in the last few years, Russia's foreign direct investment was actually negative unheard of for an emerging market economy. While Russia was accepted into the club in December, the United States still has in

place Cold War-era trade sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Senate met last Thursday to discuss dropping these laws so that they could normalize trade relations before Russia formally joins the WTO this summer. The main argument against lifting the so-called Jackson-Vanik amendment derives from Russia's abominable human rights record and its questionable commitment to democracy. Republicans tried to voice their concerns but it was the Democrats that shut them down. President Obama has made the lifting of the amendment a key pillar of his trade policy. So while the Republicans are raising some noise in the Senate, the amendment will almost surely be lifted on Russia, leading to a normalization of trade relations between the two countries.

Finding funding for space is an enormous political challenge Powell 09 chron.com, NASA's mission for billions more may be an uphill battle, September 12, Stewart Powell
WASHINGTON NASA supporters are bracing for an uphill battle to get the extra funding needed to take on missions more ambitious than visits to the international space station. A high-level panel told President Barack Obama last week that the space program needs an infusion of about $3 billion more a year by 2014. That may be a tough sell,

even though the amount could be considered spare change in a fast-spending capital where the White House and Congress are on track to dole out nearly $4 trillion this year to finance federal operations , including bailouts for Wall Street firms, banks and automakers. The congressional agenda over the next year is going to be focused on cutting programs, not adding to them, said Scott Lilly, a scholar at the Center for American Progress. Adding resources to the nation's $18.7 billion-a-year space program would require cuts in other areas, said Lilly, who doesn't think lawmakers are willing to make those trades. Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land, the ranking Republican on the House subcommittee that has jurisdiction over NASA, said wrangling the additional $3 billion a year would be an

enormous challenge but one I am prepared to win. Added Olson, whose district includes Johnson Space Center: NASA
doesn't require bailout funds it needs the promised level of investment that previous Congresses have endorsed. The 10-member panel of space experts led by retired aerospace executive Norman Augustine suggested extending U.S. participation in the $100 billion space station for five years, extending budgeting for the retiring shuttle fleet by six months, delaying plans for a 2020 return to the moon and extending the timeline for the next generation of manned spacecraft by two years at least until 2017. But the experts warned in their 12-page preliminary report to Obama on Tuesday that meaningful human exploration would be possible only under a less constrained budget ramping (up) to approximately $3 billion per year in additional spending by 2014. Former astronaut Sally Ride, a member of the committee, forecast $27.1 billion in additional funds would be needed over the next decade a 27 percent increase over the $99.1 billion currently planned. Even before Obama publicly reacts to Augustine's report to map the next steps in the nation's manned space exploration, members of Congress are scrambling. The immediate challenge goes beyond

money to just getting NASA on the radar screen when everyone is focused on health care reform, said a key congressional staffer involved in NASA issues. Finding support NASA supporters initially are targeting the Democratic leadership of appropriations subcommittees in the House and Senate with jurisdiction over NASA. Space advocates have an ally in Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee panel that handles space agency spending. But in the House, pro-NASA lawmakers expect a fight with Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va., chairman of the House Appropriations Committee panel that cut next year's NASA spending nearly $500 million below what Obama requested . Lawmakers are looking for a House-Senate conference committee to restore the funds that Mollohan cut before the Augustine panel completed its work. Aides to Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., chairman of a Senate subcommittee that oversees NASA, said they have already identified six potential sources of additional NASA funding within the federal budget, including some of the $8 billion promised over the next decade to private energy firms to research fossil fuels and deep drilling for oil and gas. Lawmakers also are exploring the possibility of redirecting some of the two-year, $787 billion economic stimulus package from shovel-ready transportation construction projects and other federally subsidized programs into the NASA budget. The administration so far has only paid out $160 billion of the total, according to Vice President Joe Biden. A lot of stimulus money has not been spent, said Sen. John Cornyn, R-San Antonio. We should redirect some of those stimulus funds to pay for enhancements to the NASA budget because I believe human space flight is so important. Aerospace executives and veteran space experts are hoping for reliable year-to-year funding. These are challenging economic times, but this is not the moment to turn away from leading a global space exploration effort, said Dean Acosta, head of the Houston-based Coalition for Space Exploration. President's influence Presidential

leadership will be essential to gaining an increase, emphasized John Logsdon, a space policy expert who served on the Shuttle Columbia Accident
Investigation Board. The president has to use some portion of his political capital to put forward an Obama space program. Congressional staffers are looking to Tuesday's hearing by the House Committee on Science and Technology with testimony by Augustine to gauge the breadth of potential support for additional NASA spending. NASA administrator Charles Bolden was supposed to testify, but he withdrew because Obama hasn't yet indicated his plans for the future of the space program. If we see a lot of questions about additional spending at that hearing, we'll know we have trouble, said one congressional staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Obamas leadership is key to ensure passage Inside U.S. Trade, 1/13 (WHITE HOUSE UNDER PRESSURE TO DO HEAVY LIFTING ON RUSSIA
MFN VOTE, 1/13/2012, Factiva )
Permanent MFN for Russia is coming to the forefront as Russia prepares to enter into the World Trade Organization. If the United States does not graduate Russia from the Jackson-Vanik amendment, U.S. exporters cannot gain the full benefits of Russia's trade concessions as a WTO member. Russia's WTO entry is part of the Obama administration's "reset" policy with Russia that seeks to strengthen the strategic relationship between the two countries. This policy is controversial with Republican congressional leaders, such as House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH).U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue yesterday (Jan. 12) publicly signaled

that he wants the administration to be more visible in the fight for Russia MFN and that trade and economic arguments are unlikely to carry the day in Congress. "There are no pure economic arguments on the Hill," he said at a press conference after his state of American business address. Business will work to focus attention on economics, but "everyone's thinking about political implications," according to Donohue."I think the administration will probably have to be motivated, particularly in an election year, to put its oar in the water here , but we're going to
push them to do it because its not a very good idea to leave all that trade to somebody else," Donohue said. The commercial benefits of Russia's WTO entry are small. U.S. exports to Russia are lagging behind those to Panama, with $6.006 billion worth of goods exported to Russia in 2010, according to Commerce Department statistics. The top five goods the United States exported to Russia in 2010 were civilian aircraft, engines and related parts; poultry meat and offal; machinery parts; passenger cars and vehicles; and polymers of vinyl chloride also known as PVC plastics, according to the Commerce Department .But the business message that the White

House needs to take the lead may also be influenced by informal signals from Republican aides in Congress that the commercial arguments will not generate the necessary votes for the Jackson-Vanik legislation and that it is more effective to let the administration to make the foreign policy case. In the Senate, both Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Finance Committee Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) are perceived as being cool to the idea of extending permanent MFN this year. Hatch, for instance, appears interested in first securing stronger protections for intellectual property

Republicans want to see the administration work for this vote and incur the political costs for securing it. Other sources said some Republicans want to make any
rights. But a Senate Democratic aide charged that congressional "victories" for President Obama in an election year as difficult as possible, and a Senate Republican aide said that Republicans "will do anything" to deprive Obama of a foreign policy victory this year.Sources said that until business groups pressure Republican leaders to support Russia MFN, nothing will happen. A Senate Republican aide said that if executives from large multinational companies such as Boeing visit key Republican offices asking for this vote, it would be more difficult to ignore.So far, senior executives of major companies have been absent from the Russia lobbying push, which has been left largely to association lobbyists who do not carry the same clout, this aide said.

Repeal is key to regenerate overall relations Gvosdev, 2/10 --- on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (Nikolas, The Realist Prism: Resetting the U.S.Russia Reset, 2/10/2012, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11441/the-realist-prism-resetting-the-u-srussia-reset) After a period of healthier ties following the much-heralded reset, U.S.-Russia relations appear to be deteriorating. Whether it was the war of words between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin last December over the flaws in the Russian Duma elections, or the harsh language used by U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice after Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution last week calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, the optimism engendered by the Obama administration's reset with Russia has dissipated. Nor does the immediate future bode well for "resetting the reset." Putin is expected to reclaim the Russian presidency after next months election, and he has not forgotten or forgiven the Obama team's public relations effort back in 2009 to categorize President Dmitry Medvedev as the wave of the future and America's preferred interlocutor. At the same time, Putin and members of his immediate circle, who consistently expressed concerns about the "reset," feel that their doubts have been justified. In their narrative, Russia made many compromises to American preferences over the past few years, including relegating concerns about missile defense to a nonbinding preamble in the New START agreement; agreeing to much stronger sanctions on Iran and suspending a lucrative contract to provide Tehran with an advanced air defense system; and acquiescing to the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing a no-fly zone for Libya. But these produced no real quid pro quos for Russian interests. Given the skepticism with which Putin is viewed in the U.S., not only by President Barack Obama but also by all the Republican challengers, there is little chance that, after March, there will be particularly warm and strong personal relations between the U.S. and Russian presidents. But does this mean that the U.S.-Russia relationship is doomed to fall back to a more confrontational posture, as occurred in 2007 and 2008, when analysts were warning of a "new Cold War"? That depends on several factors. The first is what happens in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian presidential elections. If there is evidence of widespread fraud, and if the government takes a hard line against the resulting protest movements, it will be very difficult for any U.S. administration to continue to deepen and broaden cooperation with Russia. That could change if Putin pursues a reform agenda. In a campaign op-ed in Kommersant that was reprinted in the Washington Post, he promised to restore direct elections of governors, increase local-self government and implement stringent new measures to combat corruption. If he is serious, it might take the steam out of the "White Revolution" and enable a U.S. administration to bank on "progress" being made. But the reality is that the political establishment in Washington is not prepared to extend to Russia the type of relationship the U.S. has with states like China or Saudi Arabia, where economic considerations routinely trump human rights concerns. The second is how extensive Putin plans to shake up the Russian government. Many expect that after resuming the presidency, Putin is prepared to make significant personnel and policy changes. What is not clear is whether longserving Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will continue as the primary steward of Russia's foreign relations, and whether outgoing President Medvedev will be asked to become prime minister or assume another role to allow some form of the tandem to continue. If

Medvedev retains a good degree of influence, then some of the Obama-Medvedev partnership might be salvaged, and a new foreign minister could initiate a fresh start with his counterparts in Washington, leaving behind some of the baggage that has accumulated in the interactions between Clinton and Lavrov. The third is whether some of the new foundations in the U.S.-Russia relationship have solidified to the point that they can help weather the current storms. In contrast to the situation in 2008, there are now some important institutional connections in place. The Northern Distribution Network could represent enough ballast -- both in terms of the income generated for Russia and the safe route it offers the U.S. and NATO for the war effort in Afghanistan and for egress once the drawdown begins in the coming year -- to help prevent the relationship from veering out of control. The partnership between Exxon and Rosneft to develop both the Russian Arctic and additional projects in North America creates another set of incentives to keep ties on a level basis, as does the immense potential of a fully realized partnership between Russian and American firms in the nuclear power industry. American car manufacturers have found Russia to be a booming export market, while the U.S. space program is now dependent on Russia to ferry astronauts and cargo to maintain Americas manned presence in space. In short, there are a growing

number of interests that depend on the preservation of healthy U.S.-Russia relations for their own success. But it is not yet clear whether they have sufficient clout to outweigh the naysayers on both sides.An upcoming decision-point could offer a good indication of what to expect. The World Trade Organization is expected to
ratify Russias accession later this spring. However, American firms will not be able to take advantage of Russia's WTO membership as long as U.S. trade with Russia is still subject tothe Cold War-era Jackson-Vanikamendment. Congress would first have

to agree to "graduate" Russia from the terms of the legislation, but many members remain hesitant. An unofficial swap would see Russia given permanent normal trading relations status, but with new legislation applying "smart sanctions" against specific Russian individuals and entities accused of condoning human rights abuses, most notably in the death of Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. Whether this Solomonic compromise could work, however, remains to be seen. The Russian government has already responded very negatively to sanctions unilaterally imposed by the State Department and may be quite unwilling to accept such a compromise, even if it means graduating Russia from Jackson-Vanik. At the same time, there remains resistance within Congress to "giving up" one of its last remaining tools to pressure Russia on a whole range of issues, from chicken imports to religious freedom. The fate of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, therefore, is the canary in the coal mine for U.S.-Russia relations. If a successful repeal is negotiated, it bodes well for regenerating the relationship. However, if Obama, like George W. Bush before him, is unable to secure Russias graduation, this could end up being a fatal blow to the whole idea of the reset.

Relations solve extinction Iran, North Korea, resource depletion, environment, and warming Tayler, 8 (11/14/2008, Jeffrey, The Atlantic, Medvedev Spoils the Party; It will take more than Obama's
electoral triumph to improve the United States' strained relations with Russia, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/11/medvedev-spoils-the-party/7130/?single_page=true) Like it or not, the United States cannot solve crucial global problems without Russian participation. Russia commands the largest landmass on earth; possesses vast reserves of oil, natural gas, and other natural resources; owns huge stockpiles of weapons and plutonium; and still wields a potent brain trust.Given its influence in Iran and North Korea, to say nothing of its potential as a spoiler of international equilibrium elsewhere, Russia is one country with which theUnited States would do well to reestablish a strong working relationship a strategic
partnership, evenregardless of its feelings about the current Kremlin government.The need to do so trumps expanding NATO or pursuing full-spectrum dominance.Once the world financial crisis passes, we will find ourselves returning to

worries about resource depletion, environmental degradation, and global warming the greatest challenges facing humanity. No country can confront these problems alone.For theUnited States,
Russia may just prove the indispensable nation with which to face a volatile future arm in arm. 2 Time: 1:45

The United States federal government should substantially increase its Maritime Domain Awareness capabilities by deploying stratospheric satellites that do not extend beyond the Earths mesosphere. Strato Sats are the best, no costs or interference, this evidence is comparative Pankine et al, 09

Alexey, Zhanqing Li, David Parsons, Michael Purucker, Elliot Weinstock, Warren Wiscombe, and Kerry Nock, are from the American Meteorological Society, Stratospheric Satellites for Earth Observations, August, 2009, http://denali.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/purucker/pankine_stratsats_bams_2009.pdf
Observational systems in atmospheric science, operating from surface, manned aircraft, or satellite platforms, have advanced dramatically in the last 30 years. However, for observational systems to continue to advance, we must be open to revolutionary new possibilities just as our forebears were. Many new missions are very expensive and have had their development slowed. Now may be the opportunity to begin new revolutionary observational concepts, especially if they are very affordable. One such concept is a stratospheric satellite (StratoSat) that flies safely above all dangerous weather systems and almost all air traffic. A StratoSat is a high-altitude, very long-life balloon whose flight

path can be altered using aerodynamic lift aimed sideways from a wing suspended on a tether several kilometers below the balloon. The wing takes advantage of the large differences in wind speed between the altitudes of the balloon and the wing. At these altitudes StratoSats essentially orbit the Earth every 1020 days, carried along by the pervasive and predominant zonal winds. Figure 1 illustrates a StratoSat system concept with a wing hanging down more than 15 km below. StratoSats could remain aloft for a year or more, steer themselves to maintain a desired latitude, and perform moderately targeted, coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations. StratoSats at 35km altitude are in near-space, which means they have access to most of the atmosphere (>99%) below them and are exposed to the rigors of a harsh UV and thermal environment similar to space satellites. Their ground velocity is usually less than 40 m s 1 or <0.5% as fast as a satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO); thus, they can linger over atmospheric and oceanic structures 200 times longer. Constellations of StratoSats, globally distributed, would not suffer the diurnal or sun-angle bias in observations that plague sunsynchronous space satellites. Owing to their low cost, many StratoSats could be deployed

to create constellations that offer a number of advantages over current surface, manned aircraft, and space satellite systems, including low total mission cost, synoptic coverage, and extremely heavy-lift capability. These constellations could become key components in a sensor-web architecture of cooperating, intelligent Earth observational systems contributing to at least four Earth science areas: Earth radiation budget (ERB), atmospheric chemistry, weather observations and forecasts, and geomagnetism. Key platform capabilities that would
enable these observations have been defined by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as flight durations of 1 year; a payload mass of 200500 kg; constant altitude flight between 30 and 35 km with the ability to make in situ measurements between 14 and 35 km; and a payload power of 12 kW (Pankine 2002a). Balloons have a long history of Earth observations, beginning with the first human flights in France in the late 1700s and continuing to the current day, when they are used for routine weather prediction, atmospheric dynamics, and chemistry measurements. For 40 years space scientists have used heavy-lift balloons to carry instruments above the obscuring atmosphere, but these balloons were open to the atmosphere, carried ballast to stay at a constant altitude at night, and had to come down after a few days when the ballast ran out. Technologies are available today, or will be in the near future, that can revolutionize observations from balloon platforms; among these are the two key enabling

technologies of UV-resistant, very long-life, sealed super-pressure balloons and balloon flight path guidance systems. In addition, there are several enhancing, or measurement-enabling, technologies, including network topology coordination, advanced and miniaturized in situ sensors and dropsondes, and GPS-guided parafoils for precision payload landing. International overflight restrictions could eventually become a consideration for StratoSats, although early flights could ascend from existing balloonlaunch bases in McMurdo, Antarctica; Kiruna, Sweden; or Alice Springs, Australia, and make long flights over relatively uninhabited land and ocean. Initially, overflight could be handled,
as it is now, on an individual country-by-country basis. For dense StratoSat networks, a number of pathways exist to obtain permanent global overflight permissions, including 1) incorporation of constellation systems into the Commission on Basic Systems framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2) expansion of the 1992 Treaty on Open Skies, or 3) a new treaty based on the free use of the stratosphere for scientific purposes or on the need to monitor the troposphere for worldwide pollution control. StratoSats are

promising future observational platforms owing to their ability to satisfy some unique Earth observation needs, the relative maturity of the needed technology, and their low cost relative to space satellite, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or airship platforms. Single StratoSat platforms would cost around one half to a few million dollars, depending on the scope of the science payload and the number of platforms needed. Space satellites, on the other hand, can cost several hundred million dollars because 1) they are expensive to launch and thus are made to be highly reliable and 2) they are often expensive, one-of-a-kind systems when they are designed to meet unique Earth science needs. A constellation of 100 StratoSats could give synoptic coverage for less than the cost of a single space satellite, which cannot provide synoptic coverage. Other advantages of StratoSats that make them inexpensive are a benign high-energy solar and galactic particle radiation environment and instruments that can be recovered for calibration, repair, and relaunch. As technology improves, StratoSats, unlike space satellites, can be easily upgraded through the recovery of old payloads and relaunch of new ones.

The plan cant solve for VHF signals because it will get disturbed by the ionosphere which is used by AIS Tomme 5

Edward, Director of Airpower Research Institute, The Paraigm Shift to Effects-Based Base: Near-Space as a Combat Space Effects Enabler,, http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA434352&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf Being lower than satellites also brings about another decided advantage to near-space platforms: they fly below the ionosphere. Short-wave fade (HF fade) is a reasonably common occurrence tied to solar flares. It enhances electron densities in the lower ionosphere and can completely black out long-range HF and VHF communications over large regions for hours at a time.41 Ionospheric scintillation can also have significant effects on radio communication42 and GPS navigation accuracy.43, 44 This scintillation is essentially the same effect
that causes stars to twinkle but is caused by rapid spatial changes in electron density across portions of the ionosphere instead of by high altitude wind. Ionospheric scintillation is very difficult to predict, but is primarily a problem in polar regions

and near the equatorial day/night terminator. It can disrupt satellite signals for several hours.45 Satellites that might attempt to geo-locate terrestrial radio transmissions encounter the problem of signal refraction as they pass through the ionosphere, the same effect that causes a straight rod sticking out of water to appear to bend. In many cases, refraction causes large errors in the reported coordinates of the signal, errors that are difficult to reduce due to uncertainty in the localized electron density of the ionosphere through which the signals are passing. There are many environmental effects that have large impacts on a comparison of space, near-space, and air-breathing platforms, but perhaps the most important environmental effect is that many of the space weather effects that unpredictably plague satellite communication and navigation capabilities are automatically mitigated in nearspace where the signals never traverse the ionosphere. Other relevant aspects of the nearspace environment are discussed at
length in Appendix A.

Star this card its on MDA, counterplan solve Brown 10 Peter J. Brown, satellite journalist based in Maine, May 13, 2010 US satellites shadow China's
submarines, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LE13Ad02.html Aircraft and UAVs lingering overhead can mimic surveillance satellites, and their presence is an important aspect of the US "Maritime Domain Awareness" strategy. Another option involves inserting additional maritime surveillance assets above conventional aircraft and UAVs, and beneath the satellites. For example, the US Navy is interested in DARPA's "Integrated Sensor Is the Structure" (ISIS) program, which is, in effect, an integrated stratospheric airship/radar - the stratosphere is found at an altitude of roughly 10 to 50 kilometers above Earth - featuring a 600-kilometer-wide sensor radius. In fact, DARPA included a slide during a briefing last year that showed how a single ISIS on station over the Luzon Strait could conduct surveillance operations covering the entire Strait from Taiwan to the northern Philippines, and almost as far west almost as the coast of China.

N/B Resolution
GEO Sats extremely expensive and have poor resolution Nock et al, 02
(K.T. Nock, M.K. Heun, K.M. Aaron, Global Aerospace Corporation, Universities Space Research Association Research Contract, Global Constellation of Stratospheric Scientific Platforms: Phase II Final Report, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/397Nock.pdf) Observations of the Earth from GEO satellites have typically been restricted to low resolution visible and IR

imaging for meteorology purposes. Because these satellites remain stationary above a particular longitude at the equator, they can only observe one third of the Earth at a time. Except for the subsatellite point, the view of any other
area on the surface of Earth is at an angle from the vertical. In fact, because of the curvature of the Earth, the limb is 81.3 degrees from the subsatellite point. This means that no latitude beyond 81.3 degrees can be seen with low emission angle (near nadir viewing) from GEO, hence the poles of the Earth are never visible from these orbits. Practically speaking, GEO satellites cannot make useful observations above about 70 degrees latitude because of the oblique viewing conditions. Furthermore, continuous coverage at the equator requires at least 3 satellites evenly spaced around the globe. Satellites in GEO are limited to relatively low-resolution Earth observations either of the surface or of the limbs due to the high altitude. GEO altitude is about 50-times higher than the SeaWiFSs Sun synchronous orbit . High-resolution coverage from GEO is only possible by means of

Hubbleclass telescopes, which are heavy, expensive and complex. In addition, several satellites are required if relatively low viewing angles are required. Furthermore, such satellites would require large, expensive launch vehicles to be placed into orbit. More distant satellite orbits have been explored, however their practicality is limited by target resolution and coverage issues

Time: 1:20

Space has always been a racially-charged arena, but the political struggles go consistently UNNOTICED.

McQUAID Prof Emeritus @ Lake Erie University 2k7


Kim-; SOCIETAL IMPACT OF SPACE FLIGHT, Chapter 22; Steven J. Dick and Roger D. Launius Editors;

Racism, Sexism, and Space Ventures: Civil Rights at NASA in the Nixon Era and Beyond. Race and gender are almost invisible aspects of the early Space age. The civil rights movement, the womens movement, and early spaceflight occurred simultaneously, but they are normally analyzed as if they occurred in separate universes. Realities were different; there was a social history of the Space age. Exclusions of women and racial minorities from key portions of americas civilian space effort have had major effects on the political credibility of spaceflight. Recent books
on how the U.S. astronaut corps stayed closed to women in the late 1950s and early 1960s,and about how it opened to women of all

the political struggles within and around NASA that made such openings a political necessity remain unknown. This essay addresses the fight
races and minority men after 978,tell part of this story. But to make Americas space programlike america itselfmore diverse and inclusive.

The affirmative rhetorical silence on whiteness is an active stance that allows white privilege to thrive by masking its existence and treating is as an assumed norm.

We once believed that SILENCE was golden interpreting it to be a precious and valuable commodity. While still viewed as a precious and valuable commodity the color has changed and SILENCE is now the veil and cloak of WHITENESS and WHITE PRIVILEGE

DR. CRENSHAW

Prof of Speech Comm @ Univ. Ala. Carrie-PhD. USC; former director of debate @ Univ. of Ala.; WESTERN JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION This analysis of Helms opening argument illustrates how

1997

the ideology of white privilege operates

through rhetorical silence. Helms statement was an argument over the meaning of the UDCits members, its
actions, and its insignia. It was an ideological struggle to maintain silence about the members whiteness and its implications through a

First, rhetorical silence about whiteness sustains an ideology of white privilege. Second, intersecting gendered discourses work to preserve this silence. Helms silence about whiteness naturalized the taken-for-granted assumptions contained in his framework for understanding who is harmed by this decision. The colossal unseen dimensions [of] the silences and denials surrounding whiteness are key political tools for protecting white privilege and maintaining the myth of meritocracy (McIntosh 35). This silence is rhetorical and has important ideological implications. Scott observes that silence and speaking have symbolic impact and as such are both rhetorical. When considering the dialectic of speaking and silence, he thinks of silence as the absence of speech. Silence is active, not passive; it may be interpreted. Furthermore, silence and speech may be both simultaneous and sequential. The absence of speech about whiteness signifies that it exists in our discursive silences. It may often be intentional; it can be interpreted, and it can occur simultaneously with the spoken word. Whiteness silence is ideological because it signifies that to be white is the natural condition, the assumed norm. Scott notes that silences symbolize the nature of thingstheir substance or natural condition. Silences symbolize hierarchical
strategic use of gender. Two key issues arise here.

structures as surely as does speech (15). Indeed, the very structure of privilege generates silences, and ironically, the most powerful rhetoric for maintaining an existing scheme of privilege will be silent (10). Thus, silent rhetorical constructions of whiteness like
Helms protect material white privilege because they mask its existence.

Racism must be rejected in EVERY INSTANCE without surcease. It justifies atrocities, creates another and is truly the CAPITAL SIN.

MEMMI

Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ Unv. Of Paris

2000

Albert-; RACISM, translated by Steve Martinot, pp.163-165

The struggle against racism will be long, difficult, without intermission, without remission, probably never achieved, yet for this very reason, it is a struggle to be undertaken without surcease and without concessions. One cannot be indulgent toward racism. One cannot even let the monster in the house, especially not in a mask. To give it merely a foothold means to augment the bestial part in us and in other people which is to diminish what is human. To accept the racist universe to the slightest degree is to endorse fear, injustice, and violence. It is to accept the persistence of the dark history in which we still largely live. It is to agree that the outsider will always be a possible victim (and which [person] man is not [themself] himself an outsider relative to someone else?). Racism illustrates in sum, the inevitable negativity of the condition of the dominated; that is it illuminates in a certain sense the entire human condition. The anti-racist struggle, difficult though it is, and always in question, is nevertheless one of the prologues to the ultimate passage from animality to humanity. In that sense, we cannot fail to rise to the racist challenge. However, it remains true that ones moral conduct only emerges from a choice: one has to want it. It is a choice among other choices, and always debatable in its foundations and its consequences. Let us say, broadly speaking, that the
choice to conduct oneself morally is the condition for the establishment of a human order for which racism is the very negation. This is

One cannot found a moral order, let alone a legislative order, on racism because racism signifies the exclusion of the other and his or her subjection to violence and domination. From an ethical point of view, if one can deploy a little religious language, racism is the truly capital sin.fn22 It
almost a redundancy. is not an accident that almost all of humanitys spiritual traditions counsel respect for the weak, for orphans, widows, or strangers. It is not just a question of theoretical counsel respect for the weak, for orphans, widows or strangers. It is not just a question of theoretical morality and disinterested commandments. Such unanimity in the safeguarding of the other suggests the real utility

All things considered, we have an interest in banishing injustice, because injustice engenders violence and death. Of course, this is debatable. There are those who think that if one is strong enough, the assault on and oppression of others is permissible. But no one is ever sure of remaining the strongest. One day, perhaps, the roles will be reversed. All unjust society contains within itself the seeds of its own death. It is probably smarter to treat others with respect so that they treat you with respect.
of such sentiments. Recall, says the bible, that you were once a stranger in Egypt, which means both that you ought to respect the stranger because you

It is an ethical and a practical appeal indeed, it is a contract, however implicit it might be. In short, the refusal of racism is the condition for all theoretical and practical morality. Because, in the end, the ethical choice commands the political choice. A just society must be a society accepted by all.
were a stranger yourself and that you risk becoming once again someday.

If this contractual principle is not accepted, then only conflict, violence, and destruction will be our lot. If it is accepted, we can hope someday to live in peace. True, it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistible.

3
The United States federal government should substantially increase its Maritime Domain Awareness capabilities by deploying stratospheric satellites that do not extend beyond the Earths mesosphere. Strato Sats are the best, now costs or interference, this evidence is comparative Pankine et al, 09
Alexey, Zhanqing Li, David Parsons, Michael Purucker, Elliot Weinstock, Warren Wiscombe, and Kerry Nock, are from the American Meteorological Society, Stratospheric Satellites for Earth Observations, August, 2009, http://denali.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/purucker/pankine_stratsats_bams_2009.pdf
Observational systems in atmospheric science, operating from surface, manned aircraft, or satellite platforms, have advanced dramatically in the last 30 years. However, for observational systems to continue to advance, we must be open to revolutionary new possibilities just as our forebears were. Many new missions are very expensive and have had their development slowed. Now may be the opportunity to begin new revolutionary observational concepts, especially if they are very affordable. One such concept is a stratospheric satellite (StratoSat) that flies safely above all dangerous weather systems and almost all air traffic. A StratoSat is a high-altitude, very long-life balloon whose flight

path can be altered using aerodynamic lift aimed sideways from a wing suspended on a tether several kilometers below the balloon. The wing takes advantage of the large differences in wind speed between the altitudes of the balloon and the wing. At these altitudes StratoSats essentially orbit the Earth every 1020 days, carried along by the pervasive and predominant zonal winds. Figure 1 illustrates a StratoSat system concept with a wing hanging down more than 15 km below. StratoSats could remain aloft for a year or more, steer themselves to maintain a desired latitude, and perform moderately targeted, coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations. StratoSats at 35km altitude are in near-space, which means they have access to most of the atmosphere (>99%) below them and are exposed to the rigors of a harsh UV and thermal environment similar to space satellites. Their ground velocity is usually less than 40 m s 1 or <0.5% as fast as a satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO); thus, they can linger over atmospheric and oceanic structures 200 times longer. Constellations of StratoSats, globally distributed, would not suffer the diurnal or sun-angle bias in observations that plague sunsynchronous space satellites. Owing to their low cost, many StratoSats could be deployed

to create constellations that offer a number of advantages over current surface, manned aircraft, and space satellite systems, including low total mission cost, synoptic coverage, and extremely heavy-lift capability. These constellations could become key components in a sensor-web architecture of cooperating, intelligent Earth observational systems contributing to at least four Earth science areas: Earth radiation budget (ERB), atmospheric chemistry, weather observations and forecasts, and geomagnetism. Key platform capabilities that would
enable these observations have been defined by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as flight durations of 1 year; a payload mass of 200500 kg; constant altitude flight between 30 and 35 km with the ability to make in situ measurements between 14 and 35 km; and a payload power of 12 kW (Pankine 2002a). Balloons have a long history of Earth observations, beginning with the first human flights in France in the late 1700s and continuing to the current day, when they are used for routine weather prediction, atmospheric dynamics, and chemistry measurements. For 40 years space scientists have used heavy-lift balloons to carry instruments above the obscuring atmosphere, but these balloons were open to the atmosphere, carried ballast to stay at a constant altitude at night, and had to come down after a few days when the ballast ran out. Technologies are available today, or will be in the near future, that can revolutionize observations from balloon platforms; among these are the two key enabling

technologies of UV-resistant, very long-life, sealed super-pressure balloons and balloon flight path guidance systems. In addition, there are several enhancing, or measurement-enabling, technologies, including network topology coordination, advanced and miniaturized in situ sensors and dropsondes, and GPS-guided parafoils for precision payload landing. International overflight restrictions could eventually become a consideration for StratoSats, although early flights could ascend from existing balloonlaunch bases in McMurdo, Antarctica; Kiruna, Sweden; or Alice Springs, Australia, and make long flights over relatively uninhabited land and ocean. Initially, overflight could be handled,
as it is now, on an individual country-by-country basis. For dense StratoSat networks, a number of pathways exist to obtain permanent global overflight permissions, including 1) incorporation of constellation systems into the Commission on Basic Systems framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2) expansion of the 1992 Treaty on Open Skies, or 3) a new treaty based on the free use of the stratosphere for scientific purposes or on the need to monitor the troposphere for worldwide pollution control. StratoSats are

promising future observational platforms owing to their ability to satisfy some unique Earth observation needs, the relative maturity of the needed technology, and their low cost relative to space satellite, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or airship platforms. Single StratoSat platforms would cost around one half to a few million dollars, depending on the scope of the science payload and the number of platforms needed. Space satellites, on the other hand, can cost several hundred million dollars because 1) they are expensive to launch and thus are made to be highly reliable and 2) they are often expensive, one-of-a-kind systems when they are designed to meet unique Earth science needs. A constellation of 100 StratoSats could give synoptic coverage for less than the cost of a single space satellite, which cannot provide synoptic coverage. Other advantages of StratoSats that make them inexpensive are a benign high-energy solar and galactic particle radiation environment and instruments that can be recovered for calibration, repair, and relaunch. As technology improves, StratoSats, unlike space satellites, can be easily upgraded through the recovery of old payloads and relaunch of new ones.

The plan cant solve for VHF signals because it will get disturbed by the ionosphere which is used by AIS Tomme 5
Edward, Director of Airpower Research Institute, The Paraigm Shift to Effects-Based Base: Near-Space as a Combat Space Effects Enabler,, http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA434352&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf Being lower than satellites also brings about another decided advantage to near-space platforms: they fly below the ionosphere. Short-wave fade (HF fade) is a reasonably common occurrence tied to solar flares. It enhances electron densities in the lower ionosphere and can completely black out long-range HF and VHF communications over large regions for hours at a time.41 Ionospheric scintillation can also have significant effects on radio communication42 and GPS navigation accuracy.43, 44 This scintillation is essentially the same effect
that causes stars to twinkle but is caused by rapid spatial changes in electron density across portions of the ionosphere instead of by high altitude wind. Ionospheric scintillation is very difficult to predict, but is primarily a problem in polar regions

and near the equatorial day/night terminator. It can disrupt satellite signals for several hours.45 Satellites that might attempt to geo-locate terrestrial radio transmissions encounter the problem of signal refraction as they pass through the ionosphere, the same effect that causes a straight rod sticking out of water to appear to bend. In many cases, refraction causes large errors in the reported coordinates of the signal, errors that are difficult to reduce due to uncertainty in the localized electron density of the ionosphere through which the signals are passing. There are many environmental effects that have large impacts on a comparison of space, near-space, and air-breathing platforms, but perhaps the most important environmental effect is that many of the space weather effects that unpredictably plague satellite communication and navigation capabilities are automatically mitigated in nearspace where the signals never traverse the ionosphere. Other relevant aspects of the nearspace environment are discussed at
length in Appendix A.

Star this card its on MDA, counterplan solve Brown 10 Peter J. Brown, satellite journalist based in Maine, May 13, 2010 US satellites shadow China's
submarines, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LE13Ad02.html Aircraft and UAVs lingering overhead can mimic surveillance satellites, and their presence is an important aspect of the US "Maritime Domain Awareness" strategy. Another option involves inserting additional maritime surveillance assets above conventional aircraft and UAVs, and beneath the satellites. For example, the US Navy is interested in DARPA's "Integrated Sensor Is the Structure" (ISIS) program, which is, in effect, an integrated stratospheric airship/radar - the stratosphere is found at an altitude of roughly 10 to 50 kilometers above Earth - featuring a 600-kilometer-wide sensor radius. In fact, DARPA included a slide during a briefing last year that showed how a single ISIS on station over the Luzon Strait could conduct surveillance operations covering the entire Strait from Taiwan to the northern Philippines , and almost as far west almost as the coast of China.

4
A) Financial reform bills will pass nowkey to Indian economy Domain-India, 4-23-2012 (LexisNexis)

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has expressed confidence that lawmakers would approve key financial sector reforms this year, despite concerns any meaningful bills would be delayed until a new government took office in 2014, due to a political deadlock. According to Mukherjee, who was speaking in an interview on Saturday night, said India's reforms were a "continuing process" which was following its natural course through different instances of government. "It is not that there is any stoppage of the reforms," he told Reuters in Washington, following a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He said the reforms process was going on and he hoped that three important legislations - the pension funds and regulation amendment act, the insurance amendment act and the banking amendment act - are likely to be passed either in the current session of parliament or in the next session of parliament. The IMF last week urged India to implement economic reforms to address growth constraints, which according to the fund would slow to around 7 per cent in 2012 from a level of 8.4 per cent maintained over the past two years (See: IMF urges India to keep policy rates on hold (http://www.domainb.com/economy/general/20120418_policy_rates.html)).

B) Maritime Domain Awareness Link MDA would foster US-India cooperation Gopalaswamy August 2011 (Bharath Gopalaswamy is a senior research scholar at Cornell Universitys Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, where he is directing a project on space security. Indo-U.S. Space Cooperation: Aiming Higher http://csis.org/files/publication/CSIS_08-11-2011_WadhwaniChair_SpaceCooperationIssuePerspective.pdf) With NASA and ISRO now free to collaborate, the U.S. National Space Policy providing a useful framework for both nations to engage on space, and the U.S.-India Space Working Group up and running, the momentum is there for India and the United States to expand their cooperation on space. Four areas where the United States and India can strengthen their cooperation in space follow: 1. Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). MDA cooperation could significantly enhance security for both nations. Commercially available satellite data has made over-the- horizon MDA possible. Among Indias 23 active satellites, 13 fly in low earth orbits (LEO). The NSP derives some of its strengths from increasing the number of satellites available to contribute to MDA data. Some of those 13 satellites would be useful in enhancing MDA. Increased data sharing could significantly enhance efforts toward achieving comprehensive maritime domain awareness, thus benefitting both India and the United States on monitoring Indias coasts and major sea-lanes across the Indian Ocean.

(C) The global economy is on the brink, reviving Indias economy is key to avoid a global meltdown The Financial Express, 12-2-2011 (LexisNexis) Fears that the world is staring at another economic meltdown became starker with a United Nations warning on double-dip recession and a projection that global economic growth will slow down further in 2012 and even emerging powerhouses like India and China, which led the recovery last time, will get bogged down. The UN 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012' report has cut the global growth forecast for next year to 2.6% from 4% in 2010. It has called 2012 a "make-or-break" year for the global economy, which will face a "muddle-through" scenario and continue to grow at a slow pace. "Following two years of anaemic and uneven recovery from the financial crisis, the world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn," it said, warning "the risks for a double-dip recession have heightened". It said the failure of policymakers - especially those in Europe and the US - to address the jobs crisis, prevent debt distress and escalation of financial sector fragility poses the most acute risk for the global economy in 2012-2013. Growth in developing countries like India and China, which had stoked the engine of the world economy so far, will also slow down to 5.6% in 2012 from 7.5% in 2010. (D) The impact is global nuclear war Kerpen 10/28/08 (Phil, policy director of Americans for Prosperity, http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU=)

Its important that we avoid all these policy errors not just for the sake of our prosperity, but for our survival. The Great Depression, after all, didnt end until the advent of World War II, the most destructive war in the history of the planet. In a world of nuclear and biological weapons and non-state terrorist organizations that breed on poverty and despair, another global economic breakdown of such extended duration would risk armed conflicts on an even greater scale.

FINANCIAL REFORM WILL PASS NOW


Financial reform bills will pass nowopposition support is key Times of India, 4-24-2012 (LexisNexis) The government is likely to introduce three key financial sector bills in the second phase of the budget session that begins on Tuesday and is ready to discuss issues with the Opposition to ensure smooth legislative business and press ahead with economic reforms, ministers have said. Parliamentary affairs minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said the three financials sector bills identified by the finance minister could be taken up for approval. The three bills are the Pension Fund and Regulatory Development Authority Bill (PFRDA) and the Insurance and Banking amendment bills. Union HRD and communications minister Kapil Sibal said the government was pleased about the support to the pension bill from the leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley. The UPA government is keen to restart stalled economic reforms after facing criticism for putting reforms on the backburner due to pressure from allies and from within the government. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has hinted at tough measures in the months ahead, while his economic adviser Kaushik Basu has said that key reforms are on their way in the next six months. The reforms process must be taken forward, Sibal told reporters. Bansal said the government intends to bring 40 bills for discussion and passage in the second part of the budget session. Of these, 23 are with the standing committees, while 10 are ready after they have been cleared by the Cabinet. The Centres hopes have been boosted by the support shown by BJP on the pension bill and the government plans to wrap up budget process with a discussion and voting on the Finance Bill on May 7-8. Certainly, the Finance Bill is a priority, Bansal told reporters ahead of the session.

SINGH HAS POLITICAL CAPITAL NOW


Singh has political capital nowhe is powerful and pushing reforms now Outlook India, 4-24-2012 (http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=760498) Dismissing US corporate sector's perception of a power vacuum in New Delhi, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that a "very powerful" and "acceptable" Prime Minister was at the helm of affairs in India and the appetite for reform was strong in the country.

"How can I comment on perception of some organisation or institution? I can only state the fact that there is no vacuum in leadership of the union government. There is a very powerful, strong and acceptable Prime Minister," Mukherjee said last night at the end of his Washington visit. He was responding to a question at a press conference related to a letter written recently by the US corporate sector to the White House claiming that there was a power vacuum in New Delhi, and decision-making had become slow. The Finance Minister, who was here to attend the annual spring meeting of the IMF and World Bank, also asserted that there was appetite for reforms in the Indian electorate. "How to gauge the appetite of the electorate? So far the electoral performance is concerned it is mixed and reform was never a major agenda in the provincial assembly elections. So how do you gauge it? This can be gauged only in the national elections," he said. "In national elections, it has been amply demonstrated. Congress party had 147 Lok Sabha seats in 2004. It increased to 207 (in 2009) and the Congress Party is one of the pioneers in introducing the reform measures. "So therefore from that point of view you can say, Yes, there is an appetite for reform among Indian electorate," Mukherjee said.

And onto case Inherency


SQ solves- ORBCOMM already doing aff in the middle of 2012

ORBCOMM NO DATE (a leading provider of global satellite and cellular data communications solutions for asset tracking,
management, and remote control. Our global network and unique management tools enable delivery of small quantities of information to and from virtually any place in the world on a near real-time basissimply and affordably. http://www.orbcomm.com/services-ais.htm Date Accessed: 3/30/2012)

Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a shipboard broadcast system that transmits a vessel's identification, position and other critical data that can be used to assist in navigation and improve maritime safety. Most current terrestrial-based AIS systems provide only limited coverage nearby shorelines and are not able to provide global open ocean coverage. ORBCOMM overcomes many of these issues thanks to a fully satellitebased AIS data service, which is able to monitor maritime vessels well beyond coastal regions in a costeffective and timely fashion. ORBCOMM was the first commercial satellite network with AIS Data Service. In 2008, ORBCOMM launched low-earth orbit satellites specially equipped with the capability to collect AIS data, and has plans to include these capabilities on all future satellites for ongoing support of global maritime safety and security initiatives. ORBCOMM has recently launched two dedicated AIS microsatellites, one in an equatorial orbit and the other in a polar orbit, which allows ORBCOMM to provide complete global AIS coverage. ORBCOMM will be launching 18 additional AIS-equipped next generation satellites beginning in the middle of 2012.

Norway and Canada solve in the status quo Kongsberg 7 [Kongsberg Maritime delivers products and systems for dynamic positioning, navigation and automation to merchant
vessels and offshore installations supply products and systems for seabed surveying, surveillance, training simulators, and for fishing vessels and fisheries research. 2007 http://www.km.kongsberg.com/KS/WEB/NOKBG0238.nsf/AllWeb/5ABD16FBCA2A3F12C125730500430A00?OpenDocument] "Norway

was one of the first countries to establish a full shore-based AIS network," says Terje Wahl, Chief Scientist at the Norwegian Space Centre. "It is therefore a natural development to also study the prospects for broadening the AIS coverage through a space-based AIS." Space-based AIS Space-based AIS covers ocean areas beyond the reach of the ground
infrastructure. Courtesy: FFI Studies have been initiated by the Space Centre over the last year to investigate the prospects for building a Norwegian AIS satellite. Last

fall the Norwegian government issued a broad strategy for the high North where one recommendation is to pursue the space-

based AIS initiative. Space-based AIS is now entering a new phase with the goal to develop a low cost satellite design for an experimental AIS satellite. This design phase will be terminated at the end of 2007. Norwegian and Canadian development The AIS payload will receive and decode AIS information from the maritime vessels. During the second half of 2007 the Trondheim-based company, Kongsberg Seatex, will develop a prototype of the AIS receiver based on the company's leading position in AIS technology. "Norway has been a leading nation in satellite based earth observation for a long time, and Norwegian industry is in the forefront of the AIS technology development," says Terje Wahl. The space group at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment - FFI, has been asked to lead this study and to develop plans for the project. Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace Company (KDA) will be involved with payload fabrication and product assurance. The payload development and the project planning receive funding support both from the Space Centre and from the participating institutions. A Canadian satellite platform design will be adjusted to carry the Norwegian AIS receiver. The platform will be designed and
eventually manufactured and tested by the University of Toronto Space Flight Laboratory. The satellite dimensions will 20 x 20 x 20 cm. "Modern

technology has made it possible to build very small and capable satellites, which reduces the launch cost considerably," says Terje Wahl at the Norwegian Space Centre.

Squo solves space cooperation Obamas NSP is about multilateral actions in space Squo capabilities are sufficient to spur cooperation,
1ac author Earles

10 (Martin Rick; Owner of E&A; Executive Director for CANEUS US at Earles & Associates and CANEUS US, CANEUS USA, International Collaborative Aerospace Development Micro-Nano-Technologies: From Concepts to Systems, CANEUS International is a unique non-profit organization of professionals involving public/private partnership, serving primarily the needs of aeronautics, space and defense communities by fostering the coordinated, international development of MNT (Micro-Nano- Technologies) for aerospace and defense applications. CANEUS Shared Small Satellites CSSP Workshop Committee, International Space-Based AIS and Data Extraction Backbone High Level Requirements, http://www.caneus.org/sharedsmallsats/downloads/International_Space-Based_AIS_and_Data_Extraction_BackboneHigh_Level_Requirements.pdf , ND)
Knowing where ships are located is a necessary element of Maritime Domain Awareness, though not sufficient in itself to achieve an effective understanding2 of maritime activity and its impact on safety, security, the environment and the economy. Current practice relies on a diverse set of sensors to garner the positions of ships; a fundamental contribution to the art and practice of ship tracking can be credited to the International Maritime Organization, which in 2004 mandated the use of an Automatic Ship Identification System (AIS) for many commercially important ships. AIS is a self-reporting system that broadcasts each participating ships identity and position (among many data fields) over VHF channels; the original intent was to provide collision-avoidance information to nearby ships and shore stations.3 Shortly after the IMO carriage requirements

became effective, the US Navy in the Mediterranean began to collaborate with European and African governments to establish a network of shore stations, all of which contributed the AIS signals they received locally to a consolidated data stream, which was then shared among participating nations. This Maritime Safety and Security Information System ( MSSIS) has since grown into a network of over 100 AIS base stations in over 60 participating nations around the world, providing current positions for over 15,000 ships. The major
strengths of this innovative collaboration are the trust and interdependence it generates, and of course, an unprecedented picture of maritime activity. The major shortcomings are the limited set of ships broadcasting AIS, and the limited reception range for VHF signals; no data is received from non-cooperative vessels, or from the open oceans or areas near non-participating nations. Herein lies the key point made by Guy Thomas: the entire planet is visible from space, and many of the sensors (including AIS receivers) needed for a much more complete picture of maritime activity are already on orbit or planned.

AIS cant solve suicide terror attacks

USGA 9 [United States Government Accountability Office Report to the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives
March 2009 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09337.pdf]

The three primary means for vessel tracking at sea are proven technologies and can track most larger vessels sailing to the United States. Two of these systems, however, are dependent on cooperation on the part of vessel operators. In U.S. coastal areas, inland waterways, and ports, AIS, the primary means of tracking AIS-

equipped vessels is capable of detecting only a fraction of vessels operating in these locations. Other means, such as radar and video cameras, can enhance tracking to a degree. However, even if multiple systems are in place for tracking vessels in U.S. coastal areas, inland waterways, and ports, tracking small vessels such as potential suicide attack boats is difficult.

Status quo security measures solverest of aff article concedes

1AC Luft and Korin 4 (Gal, Executive Director, Institute for Analysis of Global Security; and Anne,
Director, Policy and Strategic Planning, IAGS, Foreign Affairs, Terrorism Goes to Sea Nov/Dec 2004, http://www.jmhinternational.com/news/news/selectednews/files/2004/20041201_20041101_ForeignAffairs_Terrori smGoesToSea.pdf)
Ultimately, only

a ship can guarantee its own security. Maritime security forces cannot be present everywhere at all times (and in certain regions the security forces themselves are the problem). Vessels must contend with two types of attack: ramming by a suicide boat and hijacking. The first is very difficult to defend against. The second is easier to deter. By international agreement, as of July 2004, ships above 500 tons must be equipped with alarm systems that silently transmit security alerts containing tracking information in case of emergency. Vessels are also required to emboss their International Maritime Organization (IMO) number on their hulls. And since 2003, ship owners have been able to install high-voltage electric fencing to discourage intruders (although ships carrying highly volatile cargo-including oil-cannot use such fencing). At a time when the
U.S. Congress has decided to enable airline pilots to carry weapons, it is worth examining a similar policy for officers on civilian ships. Arming sailors is more complicated than simply giving them weapons. Officers must be well trained, access to onboard weapons storage must be carefully controlled, and crews must be well vetted. The long-standing (and, in the short term, financially expedient) practice of crewing ships with unfamiliar developing-world crews hired at various ports of call also requires scrutiny-in many hijackings, "insiders" planted on the ships facilitate the attacks. International

law treats pirates in the same way it treats terrorists: as enemies of mankind. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea enjoins the international community to cooperate in the repression of piracy on the high seas, allowing any state to seize pirate ships or ships under pirates' control. Once pirates are apprehended on the high seas, the seizing power has the authority to determine their penalties.

Their 1AC Moore evidence is out datedmaritime security cooperation nowEU, Japan, China, and US cooperation ensures stability Europa 12
[European Commission's Taxation and Customs Union Directorate-General. im to disseminate information on the Commission's work in the areas of taxation and the customs union, policy fields that contribute to the promotion of growth and development and competitiveness 1/4/12 http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/customs/policy_issues/customs_security/cooperation_3thcountries/index_en.htm] Following this 2004 agreement, two expert working groups were established with specific agendas. One

group focused on furthering joint efforts in security standards, and the other focused on comparing trade partnership programmes. A series of meetings were held to identify and define programmes and activities that would achieve these objectives (see

press release IP/04/1360 ). The outcome of these meetings is a list of recommendations for measures and actions that concern, amongst other things, establishing minimum standards for risk management techniques, agreed operating procedures for customs controls and CSI requirements for EU ports. For more details please have a look at this. document (pdf 1.47 Mb)(1.47 Mb) . The in-depth comparison of the customs to business partnerships programmes provided a complete overview of the EU Authorised Operator Concept (AEO) and the US Customs and Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) programme.

It serves as a basis for further development of standards and systems for securing and facilitating legitimate trade on both sides of the Atlantic. The developments and results of EU-US customs cooperation in this field are closely monitored
by other international organisations (WCO, OSCE) and will certainly have an impact on work in international fora, such as the future work in connection with the WCO Framework of Standards (SAFE) (pdf 243 Kb)(243 Kb) . In the 7th EU-US Joint Customs Consultative Committee (JCCC) meeting in Brussels on

31 January 2006, the US Customs and Border Protection the European Commission Director General of DG Taxation and Customs Union, Mr Robert Verrue, endorsed the results of the working groups. They also agreed on the recommendations proposed by the working groups, e.g. merging both working groups into one Steering Group and developing activities to support the implementation of operating procedures and standards developed by the experts. In the 8th EU-US JCCC
(CBP) Acting Commissioner, Ms Deborah Spero, and meeting on 22 January 2007 in Washington, CBP Commissioner, Mr Ralph Basham, and the European Commission Director General of DG Taxation and Customs Union, Mr Robert Verrue, endorsed the

results of the second phase of the EU-US customs cooperation on transatlantic supply chain security. They also agreed on focusing - in a third phase of cooperation - on three priority actions: A pilot project to test the feasibility of the CSI concept at EU feeder ports which has now concluded, Customs-Trade Partnership Initiatives and Joint Risk Rules. At the 9th meeting of the JCCC on 6 March 2008 in Brussels, CBP Deputy Commissioner, Mr
Jayson Ahern, and European Commission Director General of DG Taxation and Customs Union, Mr Robert Verrue, adopted the US-EU Joint Customs Cooperation Committee Roadmap towards Mutual Recognition of Trade Partnership Programmes. Customs

security programmes were introduced by the US and the EU in order to support the development and implementation of measures to enhance the security of the supply chain through improved customs controls. Traders who demonstrate compliant efforts to secure their part of the supply chain benefit from increased customs facilitation. Mutual recognition arrangements allow the companies of one supply chain security programme to receive benefits similar to those conferred on companies participating in another country's programme. For more
information see the press release (pdf 76 Kb)(76 Kb) . In January 2009 an abridged version of the roadmap was agreed with US Customs and Border Protection. The purpose of this abridged version is to provide external partners, including members of the trade community, with some background on the relevant details of the roadmap and an insight into the identified and agreed tasks that must be completed in order to meet the foreseen deadline of Mutual Recognition in 2009. For more information see the abridged version of the roadmap (pdf 49 Kb)(49 Kb) .

Cooperation on supply chain security with China

The European Union concluded an Agreement on

Customs Cooperation and Mutual Administrative Assistance in Customs Matters with the People's Republic of China that entered

into force on 1 April 2005. On 19 September 2006, the EC and China agreed to launch a pilot project on smart and secure trade lanes, with particular emphasis on sea containers. It aims to improve cooperation on supply chain security and to work towards mutual recognition and reciprocity of security measures. The pilot project initially involves
the ports of Rotterdam (NL), Felixstowe (UK) and Shenzhen (China). For more information see IP/06/1206 . As of 19 November 2007, the customs administrations of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and China exchange electronic information on sea containers leaving their territory through Rotterdam, Felixstowe and Shenzhen. This is an important step in our customs cooperation with China and paves the way for reciprocity and mutual recognition of security measures. This step took place in close cooperation with the European Commission in the framework of the secure and smart trade lanes pilot project. Both

sides agreed to exchange experience and develop best practices in order to better understand and prepare the implementation of the WCO Framework of Standards to Secure and Facilitate Global Trade. They also agreed to pursue the objectives of reciprocity and mutual recognition of measures for security and facilitation to be
implemented between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the customs authorities of the European Union. In the

short term the Smart and Secure Trade Lane Pilot Project will allow: The testing of end-to-end supply chains from the point of packing containers, through the entire container journey, to the point of final destination; Agreement on and testing of criteria for economic operators to be granted authorised economic operator (AEO) status; Agreement on and testing of data

requirements for pre-loading security clearance for "door to door" supply chains; The definition of and agreement on minimum risk rule set (profiles) and minimum control standards for customs clearance; The testing and evaluating of IT and technical solutions that enhance security and control systems while facilitating legitimate trade. Comparison of equivalent AEO
legislation in order to prepare the ground for mutual AEO recognition between the EU and China. The evaluation of the first phase of the pilot project has been launched in spring 2009 and should be finalised by the end of the year .

Cooperation with Japan on mutual recognition of security measures and AEO The EU-Japan Joint Customs Cooperation Committee established an expert dialogue on AEOs at its first meeting, held in Brussels on 11
February 2008. This dialogue brings together AEO experts from the EU and Japan to conduct an in-depth comparison of their respective AEO programmes. This analysis includes both legislative aspects and implementation, with

the aim of preparing for an eventual mutual recognition of AEOs under the EU-Japan Customs Cooperation and Mutual Administrative Assistance Agreement. Achieving mutual recognition of AEO programmes between the EU and Japan would facilitate trade and EU exports and also increase end-to-end supply chain security.

Solvency
Time: 35

Status quo solves Canada and Norway have already sent up AIS satellites Nordic Space, 2009
Nordic Space, the Norweigian space agency, April 2009, http://www.nordicspace.net/PDF/NSA238.pdf. AISSat-1 is a six kilograms nano-satellite, being constructed on behalf of the government of Norway by Canadian and Norwegian institutions and industrial companies. The primary mission is to investigate the feasibility and performance of a spacecraft-based Automatic Identication System (AIS) sensor in low-Earth orbit as a means of tracking maritime assets, and the integration of space-based AIS data into a maritime tracking information system. AISSat-1 is intended as both a research and development platform, and a demonstration mission for a larger operational capability. The satellite design is based on the Generic Nano-satellite Bus
(GNB), a cube which measures 200 mm in size, and includes a full suite of advanced capabilities. This includes: About 70 % of the mass is satellite structure and necessary subsystems. The rest, about two kilograms, is dedicated to mission specic payloads. The GNB was originally developed for the BRITE and CanX-4/-5 missions, and is now being marked for other missions around the world.

SQ solves- ORBCOMM already doing aff in the middle of 2012 ORBCOMM 2012 (a leading provider of global satellite and cellular data communications solutions for asset tracking, management,
and remote control. Our global network and unique management tools enable delivery of small quantities of information to and from virtually any place in the world on a near real-time basissimply and affordably. http://www.orbcomm.com/services-ais.htm Date Accessed: 3/30/2012)

Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a shipboard broadcast system that transmits a vessel's identification, position and other critical data that can be used to assist in navigation and improve maritime safety. Most current terrestrial-based AIS systems provide only limited coverage nearby shorelines and are not able to provide global open ocean coverage. ORBCOMM overcomes many of these issues thanks to a fully satellitebased AIS data service, which is able to monitor maritime vessels well beyond coastal regions in a costeffective and timely fashion. ORBCOMM was the first commercial satellite network with AIS Data Service. In 2008, ORBCOMM launched low-earth orbit satellites specially equipped with the capability to collect AIS data, and has plans to include these capabilities on all future satellites for ongoing support of global maritime safety and security initiatives. ORBCOMM has recently launched two dedicated AIS microsatellites, one in an equatorial orbit and the other in a polar orbit, which allows ORBCOMM to provide complete global AIS coverage. ORBCOMM will be launching 18 additional AIS-equipped next generation satellites beginning in the middle of 2012.

Grand Strategy
Time:

US alliances fail in the SCS and tank China relations containment. Swaine 12-7-11
Michael D., senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the new book, America's Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century. America's Asia Pivot Threatens Regional Stability, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/washington-destabilizes-sino-american-relations6211?page=1
At that time, Washington moved decisively away from viewing China ominously as a rising "strategic competitor" (to quote George W. Bush) and toward significant levels of Sino-U.S. cooperation in combating terrorism and dealing with a growing array of common problems, from climate change to global economic instability. This shift brought Washingtons approach back into line with an earlier, long-standing U.S. policy of fostering greater Sino-American engagement while conducting low-key military hedging against the possibility of a future hostile China. With President Obama and Secretary Clinton's recent trips to the South and Western Pacific, expanding U.S. involvement in multilateral economic and security-related fora, and a strengthening of Washington's traditional military alliances, the United States is now signaling an intention to move back toward the pre-9/11 strategic focus on a

rising China. That focus places a premium on explicitly balancing against and constraining Chinese power and influence across the region. These moves are reportedly driven by a need to counter increasing regional anxieties over China's recently assertive behavior regarding several maritime territorial disputes with Southeast Asian countries and Japan and a growing perception of an America in decline and disarray. While a clear and reassuring reaffirmation of Washington's commitment to Asia is certainly needed, it is not producing the desired effect. Despite all the reassuring talk emanating from President Obama during his recent trip to the region
about welcoming China as a rising power, and despite repeated expressions of the U.S. intention to remain neutral in Beijing's disputes with other powers, Secretary Clinton and other senior U.S. officials have been sending a very different message since at least the middle of 2010. Most notably, their words and deeds are creating the impression in some Asian capitals that Washington is now supporting Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan in their increasingly acrimonious disputes with Beijing over maritime territories. For its part, Beijing is actingand reactingin a confusing and at times belligerent manner. Tensions over its growing military presence

in maritime Asia are deepening as China fails to exert adequate control over the behavior of its ships in nearby seas and acquiesces in (or perhaps even encourages) the nonsensical conspiracy theories being spewed out domestically by hypernationalist critics of the United States. Diplomatically, China's leaders gyrate
between voicing completely unpersuasive statements about the nonthreatening nature of its military activities and demanding, through words and actions, that others accept its absolutist (and in some cases unclear) positions on a variety of highly contentious territorial issues. All the while, Beijing signals, with increasing energy and directness, that the region needs to move away from a U.S.-centered, bilateral-alliance-based security structure. America's leaders apparently think that the only way to manage this increasingly complex and challenging situation is to apply a more robust and strident version of that security structure, albeit with a nod toward what it has until very recently viewed as multilateral "talk-shops" and a continued stress on negotiation over confrontation in its bilateral interactions with Beijing. Moreover, U.S. officials seem confident that Washington can maintain indefinitely the two factors required for the ultimate success of this effort: a predominant level of military power and presenceright up to China's maritime bordersand its past level of political and economic leadership. Unfortunately, the Chinese do not support this approach, while others in and out of the region question whether America can sustain its leadership and predominance. Some even question the wisdom of attempting to maintain such a defense of the status quo in the face of a growing regional and global diffusion of power.

Multilateralism is inevitable and Obama has changed US grand strategy to multilaterlism Status quo sea superiority and security nowmilitary capabilities and alliances are stable Eaglen and McGrath 5/16 (Mackenzie, Research Fellow for National Security Studies, Allison Center for
Foreign Policy Studies; and Bryan, Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and Heritage Foundation, Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/thinking-about-a-day-without-sea-power-implications-for-usdefense-policy)

Modern American sea powerrepresented for the purposes of this paper by the U.S. Navy and its expeditionary land force, the U.S. Marine Corpsis the most flexible, adaptable, useful, and powerful naval force the world has ever known. The ascendance of American sea power since the fall of the Soviet Union has been so benign and complete

that many nations have forgone traditional investments in their own naval forces,[1] confident in the peace and stability provided by the United States or convinced of the futility of trying to challenge so powerful a force headon: [T]he strong tendency toward counterhegemonic balancing in the European system during the last five centuries has not been replicated in the global maritime system. High concentrations of naval power (and in the economic correlates of naval power) tend to generate alliances with the leading power rather than against it. The decision of many of the strongest powers in the contemporary system to ally with the United States rather than against it in the Cold War and postCold War periods is fully consistent with behavior in the global system for the last five centuries.[2] The overwhelming majority of world commerce moves virtually unmolested across the great expanse of the maritime commons. This is as near a given on the international scene as can be conjured. So engrained is this sense of security in the free flow of goods across the worlds oceans that the activities of a relatively insignificant group of brigands off the East African coast have caught the worlds attention, forcing many to consider for the first time the impact of sea power on their lives.
Time: 1:25

Sea Security

Ocean ecosystem is resilient A. deep-sea floor checks.


SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE, October 19, 1995, p. A10 Rough estimates for the number of species on the deep-sea floor have now soared to 10 million or even 100 million, hundreds of times larger than the old projections of 200,000 species for all types of marine life. The new figures also contrast starkly with the sum of the earth's plants, animals and microbes that scientists have so far named, about 1.4 million species in all. And they match the 10 million to 100 million that experts had projected as possible totals for the number of terrestrial species. "It's changing our whole view about biodiversity," said Dr. P. John D. Lambshead, a marine biologist at the Natural History Museum in London who studies the abundance of deep ocean species. "The quantity of life we've found is incredible," he added in an interview. "All sorts of ecologic theories that looked good, based on terrestrial models, suddenly fall apart. We're having to change all our ideas."

Their impacts are empirically denied Maritime terrorism has occurred before 1. Terror threat is empirically deniedrecent events like the underwear bomber prove even small-scale attacks fail and there havent been any major ones since 9/11. 2. Most have renounced large-scale attacks and its perceived as counterproductive. John Mueller, Professor of Political Science @ Ohio State University, 200 6, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct, p. lexis
One reason al Qaeda and "al Qaeda types" seem not to be trying very hard to repeat 9/11 may be that that dramatic act of destruction itself proved counterproductive by massively heightening concerns about terrorism around the world. No matter how much they might disagree on other issues (most notably on the war in Iraq), there is a

compelling incentive for states -- even ones such as Iran, Libya, Sudan, and Syria -- to cooperate in cracking down on al Qaeda, because they know that they could easily be among its victims. The FBI may not have uncovered much of anything within the United States since 9/11, but thousands of apparent terrorists have been rounded, or rolled, up overseas with U.S. aid and encouragement. Although some Arabs and Muslims took pleasure in the suffering inflicted on 9/11 -- Schadenfreude in German, shamateh in Arabic -- the most common response among jihadists and religious nationalists was a vehement rejection of al Qaeda's strategy and methods.

3. There are 20 barriers to a successful attacktheir probability is one in three and a half billion. GSN 9 (Global Security Newswire, Experts Debate Threat of Nuclear, Biological Terrorism,
http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090113_7105.php)

In even the most likely scenario of nuclear terrorism, there are 20 barriers between extremists and a successful nuclear strike on a major city, said John Mueller, a political science professor at Ohio State University / The process itself is seemingly straightforward but exceedingly difficult -- buy or steal highly enriched uranium, manufacture a weapon, take the bomb to the target site and blow it up. Meanwhile, variables strewn across the path to an attack would increase the complexity of the effort, Mueller argued / Terrorists would have to bribe officials in a state nuclear program to acquire the material, while avoiding a sting by authorities or a scam by the sellers. The material itself could also
turn out to be bad / "Once the purloined material is purloined, [police are] going to be chasing after you. They are also going to put on a high reward, extremely high reward, on getting the weapon back or getting the fissile material back," Mueller said during a panel discussion at a two-

Smuggling the material out of a country would mean relying on criminals who "are very good at extortion" and might have to be killed to avoid a double-cross, Mueller said. The terrorists would then have to find scientists and engineers willing to give up their normal lives to manufacture a bomb, which would require an expensive and sophisticated machine shop / Finally, further technological expertise would be needed to sneak the weapon across national borders to its destination point and conduct a successful detonation, Mueller said / Every obstacle is "difficult but not impossible" to overcome, Mueller said, putting the chance of success at no less than one in three for each. The likelihood of successfully passing through each obstacle, in sequence, would be roughly one in 3 1/2 billion, he said, but for argument's sake dropped it to 3 1/2
day Cato Institute conference on counterterrorism issues facing the incoming Obama administration / million / "It's a total gamble. This is a very expensive and difficult thing to do," said Mueller, who addresses the issue at greater length in an upcoming book, Atomic Obsession. "So unlike buying a ticket to the lottery ... you're basically putting everything, including your life, at stake for a gamble that's maybe one in 3 1/2 million or 3 1/2 billion." / Other scenarios are even less probable, Mueller said / A nuclear-armed state is "exceedingly unlikely" to hand a weapon to a terrorist group, he argued:

"States just simply won't give it to somebody

they can't control." / Terrorists are also not likely to be able to steal a whole weapon, Mueller asserted, dismissing the idea of "loose
nukes." Even Pakistan, which today is perhaps the nation of greatest concern regarding nuclear security, keeps its bombs in two segments that are stored at different locations, he said (see GSN, Jan. 12) / Fear of an "extremely improbable event" such as nuclear terrorism produces support for

there has been a major and costly overreaction to the terrorism threat -- noting that the Sept. 11 attacks helped to precipitate the invasion of Iraq, which has led to far more deaths than the original event / Panel moderator Benjamin Friedman, a research fellow at the Cato Institute, said academic and governmental discussions of acts of nuclear or biological terrorism have tended to focus on "worst-case assumptions about terrorists' ability to use these weapons to kill us." There is need for consideration for what is probable rather than simply what is possible, he said.
a wide range of homeland security activities, Mueller said. He argued that

Wont affect the economy Marshall 10. (Andrewwas a writer for Rueters. Rueters. Maritime Terrorism: What are the risks? http://blogs.reuters.com/andrew-marshall/2010/03/05/maritime-terrorism-what-are-the-risks/) Singapore said on Friday it had raised alert levels in the city-state and beefed up security at its airport and new casino resorts after a warning of possible attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Strait. HOW MUCH ECONOMIC DAMAGE COULD MARITIME TERRORISM INFLICT? Economic warfare is a central tactic of terrorism. But financial markets tend to be resilient in the face of attacks. From the hijacked airliner attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, to the suicide blasts at nightclubs in Bali in 2002 and the Madrid and London train bombings of 2004 and 2005, markets tend to react in a highly consistent pattern.

Domestic equities, bonds and the local currency suffer a knee-jerk sell-off. Risk appetite drops sharply and there is a swift flight to quality, with investors seeking the sanctuary of U.S. Treasuries, and sometimes selected commodities and gold. But within weeks and usually days asset prices recover.

Economic decline Impact empirically denied by status quo decline doesnt cause wartheir historical examples are wrong Ferguson 6 [Niall, Laurence A Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution at Stanford, The next war of the world, Foreign Affairs. V 85. No 5.] Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern historiography links the great depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. But the simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the war In Europe only after its economy had recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by fascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. In fact, no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the cause rather than the consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by war.
No impact to retaliationstrikes would be limited and no one would escalate SCHUYLER 2007 (Dave, Restating the U.S. Policy of Nuclear Deterrence, Last Mod Nov 13, http://theglitteringeye.com/?p=459)
A recent post on nuclear deterrence on American Future drew several comments on another blog. The blogger at American Future, Marc Schulman, outlines the responses in this post. In summary the responses were that a nuclear response to a nuclear terrorist attack was itself terrorism, a nuclear retaliation would inevitably draw other state actors to escalate the exchange, a nuclear retaliation would be collective punishment, and attacking Muslim holy sites would be counterproductive. I agree with this last point but I want to deal with each of the other points in some detail. * A nuclear response to a nuclear terrorist attack is terrorism.Theres no generally accepted definition of terrorism so before tackling this point Ill propose one. Ignoring the issue of state actors vs. non-state actors I think that a terrorist attack is an attack on civilians or civilian assets whose purpose is to provoke terror. It has no other tactical or strategic significance. Any nuclear response by the United

States would be against military or governmental facilities, sites involved in military production, or command and control. The objective would be to eliminate the possibility of future attacks or the support for those who would engage in future attacks. That such a response would inevitably result in massive civilian casualties is sad. But such a response would not, by definition, be terrorism * A nuclear retaliation Iran in response to a terrorist nuclear attack would inevitably draw France, Russia, and China to enter the conflict.To believe this you must believe that France, Russia, and China will act irrationally. There is absolutely no reason to believe that this is the case. All three nations know that their intervention against the U. S. would result in total annihilation. There are other issues as well and lets examine the two distinct cases: Russia on the one hand and France and China on the other. As a major non-Gulf producer of oil Russia would be in a position to benefit enormously in case of a disruption of Gulf oil production or shipment. That being the case they would publicly deplore a retaliation against Iran but privately rejoice . Both France and China are in an extremely delicate position. A nuclear response by either would result in total annihilation and, equally importantly, wouldnt keep the oil flowing. Lack of a blue water navy means that both nations are completely at the mercy of the United Statess (or more specifically the U. S. Navys) willingness to keep shipments of oil moving out of the Gulf. China is particularly vulnerable since it has only about two weeks worth of strategic oil reserves. Neither France nor China has any real ability to project military force other than nuclear force beyond their borders. Theyd be upset. But theyre in no position to do anything about it.

No Impact:
B) The economy is resilient Washington Times 2008 - chief political correspondent of The Washington Times (7/28/08, Donald Lambro, The Washington Times,
"Always darkest before dawn", lexis, WEA)

The doom-and-gloomers are still with us, of course, and they will go to their graves forecasting that life as we know it is coming to an end and that we are in for years of economic depression and recession. Last
week, the New York Times ran a Page One story maintaining that Americans were saving less than ever, and that their debt burden had risen by an average of $117,951 per household. And the London Telegraph says there are even harder times ahead, comparing today's economy to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Wall Street economist David Malpass thinks that kind of fearmongering is filled with

manipulated statistics that ignore long-term wealth creation in our country, as well as globally. Increasingly,

people are investing "for the long run - for capital gains (not counted in savings) rather than current income - in preparation for retirement," he told his clients last week. Instead of a coming recession, "we think the U.S. is in gradual recovery after a sharp two-quarter slowdown, with consumer resilience more likely than the decades-old expectation of a consumer slump," Mr. Malpass said. "Fed data shows clearly that household savings of all types - liquid, financial and tangible are still close to the record levels set in September. IMF data shows U.S. households holding more net financial savings than the rest of the world combined. Consumption has repeatedly outperformed expectations in recent quarters and year," he said. The American economy has been pounded by a lot of factors, including the housing collapse (a needed correction to bring home prices down to earth), the mortgage scandal and the meteoric rise in oil and gas prices. But this $14 trillion economy, though slowing down, continues to grow by about 1 percent on an annualized basis, confounding the pessimists who said we were plunging into a
recession, defined by negative growth over two quarters. That has not happened - yet. Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I do not think we are heading into a recession. On the contrary, I'm more bullish than ever on our economy's long-term prospects.