Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA.

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http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? July 13, 2012 Closes vs 5-Week MMAs key next weeks market direction.
10-Year Note (1.478) My monthly value level is 1.568 daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.421, 1.381 and 1.389 with the June 1st record low yield at 1.439. Comex Gold ($1572.3) My annual value level is $1388.4 with annual and monthly pivots at $1575.8 and $1578.3, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1606.9, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. The 50day / 200-day SMAs: $1592.9 / $1660.3. Nymex Crude Oil ($85.72) My semiannual value level is $76.71 with the October 4th low at $74.95, with a daily pivot at $86.20, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $100.47, $103.58 and $107.63. Oil is balanced between its 200-week simple moving average at $80.35 and the 50-day at $87.84. The Euro (1.2202) Monthly, weekly, daily and semiannual value levels are 1.2168, 1.2117, 1.2024 and 1.1078 with semiannual, annual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2917, 1.4239 and 1.4583. Weekly closes versus the five-week modified moving averages key near term volatility; Closes below make the weekly charts neutral, while closes above make the weekly charts positive. The five-week MMAs are; 12,718 Dow Industrials, 1344.2 SPX, 2905 NASDAQ, 5127 Dow Transports and 785.70 Russell 2000. Stocks are stuck between 12,312 Dow Industrials and 1363.2 S&P 500. My annual value level is 2698 NASDAQ with annual pivots at 12,312 Dow Industrials and 1363.2 S&P 500 and annual risky level at 836.15 Russell 2000. My semiannual value levels are: 10,738 Dow Industrials, 1059.7 SPX, 2527 NASDAQ, 4449, 4129 Dow Transports and 686.25 Russell 2000. My monthly risky levels are; 13,471 Dow Industrials, 1418.6 SPX, 3059 NASDAQ, 5422 Dow Transports and 834.07 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (12,573) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,364, 12,312 and 10,738 with my monthly risky level at 13,473. Below the 50-day SMA at 12,642 is risk to the 200-day at 12,451. S&P 500 (1334.8) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 1305.7 and 1059.7 with annual and monthly, risky levels at 1363.2 and 1418.6. A close below the 50-day SMA at 1334.6 is risk to the 200-day at 1306.6. NASDAQ (2866) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2799, 2698 and 2527 with monthly and annual risky levels at 3058 and 3232. Below the 50-day SMA at 2881 is risk to the 200-day at 2809. Dow Transports (5078) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 5017 and 4449 and 4129 with monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5422, 5861, 6111 and 6044. The all time high is 5627.85 set on July 11, 2011. Below the 50-day simple moving average at 5097 is risk to the 200-day at 5042. Russell 2000 (789.62) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 753.44 and 686.25 with monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 834.07, 836.15 and 933.42. The all time high is 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The small cap index is above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 776.71 and 768.70. VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D