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V EHICLES W ORKING G ROUP R EPORT S ERIES : V OLUME I

Clearing the air

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

IPIECA

International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association

Clearing the air

Acknowledgements
This document was compiled by the IPIECA Fuels and Vehicles Working Group (Project Manager: Rob Cox) with the assistance of the following: Miguel Moyano and Irene Alfaro (ARPEL) Peter Lidiak and Al Manato (American Petroleum Institute) Paul Bennett and Duncan King (BP) The officers and members of the IPIECA Fuels and Vehicles Working Group: Chairman: Stewart Kempsell (Shell) Vice Chairs: Roger Organ (ChevronTexaco) and Benot Chagu (Total) Miriam LevOn (Consultant) Steven McArragher (Consultant)

IPIECA 2004. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior consent of IPIECA. This publication is printed on paper manufactured from fibre obtained from sustainably grown softwood forests and bleached without any damage to the environment. Photographic credits: cover: background image, Jim Holmes; sunset, traffic: Photodisc Inc.; settlement: Paul Schatzberger/Panos Pictures; factory: Hartmut Schwarzbach/Still Pictures; pages 8 and 30: Photodisc Inc.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

Clearing the air

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

Contents
Preface Introduction A framework for air quality management
Setting air quality targets Assessment of current air quality Development of an emissions inventory system Addressing information shortcoming Selection of air quality models Forecasting air quality improvements Emission control measures Identification of air quality improvements Prioritization of control measures

4 6 8
9 13 15 18 19 20 21 23 23

Contribution of automotive transport options to air quality management

Priorities for action

26
26

Stakeholder engagement and communication Concluding thoughts Bibliography

30 32 34

The text in this document contains links to resources on the Internet; these links are represented by the blue underlined text.

Clearing the air

Clearing the air

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

Preface
The International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) was established in 1974. IPIECAs goals are to promote good practices and industry consensus on a number of environmental and social issues. Through its Fuels and Vehicles Working Group (FVWG) IPIECA provides a coordinated industry response to downstream product issues as they relate to the environment and human health. The working group seeks to provide a common interface between the oil and gas industry, auto manufacturers, intergovernmental organizations and NGOs. The FVWG also looks ahead to strategic fuels issues of the future as well as related distribution and infrastructure issues for sustainable mobility. This report is the first in a new series commissioned by IPIECA, through its FVWG. The report series represents IPIECA members collective perspective and technical expertise on the role of motor vehicle emissions in general, and the fuels they use in particular, as options for improving air quality. In examining the environmental aspects of fuel quality, the report series consists of separate volumes dedicated to urban air quality management, lead phase-out strategies, options for the phase down of sulphur from gasoline and diesel, and other topics, as applicable. This first report provides a general, science-based framework for helping to understand the nature of the problem in any specific urban area, the range of solutions that might be available, the potential impact of each of the solutions and, consequently, their prioritization within an overall management scheme.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

The overall goal of such a framework is to ensure that regulatory decisions for the management of air quality:
are based on an objective assessment of the appropriate science; recognize the balance of contributing sources; take full account of the effectiveness and costs of the alternative measures

identified to improve urban air quality;

ensure that any requirements for investment in refining and distribution to

improve the quality of transportation fuels are compatible with available motor vehicle technologies; and
put in place a measurement and monitoring system to track the air quality

improvements and ensure that programme objectives are effectively being met. IPIECAs ongoing contribution will be to identify and respond to the need for new information and support. This new report series introduces one vehicle through which to facilitate an understanding of air quality management principles and processes. The report series centres on an economic foundation, including sustainability and environmental factors, but recognizes societies inevitable need for increased mobility.

Clearing the air

Introduction
The management of ambient air quality, especially in large urban centres, both in North America and Europe, as well as other countries around the world such as Japan, Canada and Australia, has created a rich portfolio of experience from which this report is drawn. The experience in OECD* countries forms the basis for knowledge transfer from the developed to the developing countries around the world. The report is written to provide those who are just getting engaged in air quality management with the basis for drawing up, implementing and executing a successful programme, while avoiding many of the recognized pitfalls. Ambient air quality can be characterized by the combined concentrations of minor atmospheric constituents, and comparing the actual concentration levels with recommended world standardse.g. those set by the World Health Organization (WHO)for air quality. The levels of these minor atmospheric constituents in a given urban area are influenced by many factors, including the local meteorology, geography, natural emissions and all of the anthropogenic (man made) activities that result in the discharge of emissions into the atmosphere. The major sources of anthropogenic emissions are typically those from commerce, industry, transportation and domestic premises. Data on all these aspects are essential in order to determine the major sources of pollutants and to develop appropriate plans for controlling them. A growing number of large population centres around the world exhibit similar evolution patterns. These usually consist of:
rapid population growth, often fed by migration from the countryside; rapid economic, industrial and commercial growth; increased personal mobility; and escalating personal wealth, which facilitates the purchase of energy-consuming

devices, including vehicles.

*OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: an organization of industrialized countries formed to promote the economic health of its members and to contribute to worldwide development.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

This, in turn, leads to a rapid growth in energy demand and use, frequently without adequate performance standards, emission controls or adequate attention to the quality of the energy source, be it coal, petroleum, natural gas or biomass. The following chapters of this report discuss a recommended process for understanding the nature and level of current air quality problems and how they are most likely to develop under various growth pressures. In addition, guidance is provided on data collection and analysis needs, designed to: (a) evaluate the importance of each of the contributing emission sources (or source categories); (b) assess the degree to which controlling each of these sources has the potential to provide improvements in ambient air quality; and (c) facilitate ongoing monitoring of the improvements. The air quality management framework provided in this report is designed to be simply structured yet scientifically based to allow for prioritization of options based on resource availability and local targets, recognizing the fact that the best solutions are local solutions. It is based on experience gained through multiple collaborative efforts in various countries and is intended to be an easily read, generic summary of the principles behind the many thousands of guidance documents available from the World Bank (WB), WHO, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Environment Canada, the European Commission and many other organizations. For those readers requiring further detail, the Bibliography on page 34 provides useful links and specific references to a number of key guidance documents.

Clearing the air

A framework for air quality management

Experience from many countries has shown that a detailed process is necessary to conduct an air quality management programme that is based on the principles of air quality objectives, use of sound science, analysis of mitigation options, and involvement of all essential organizations and stakeholders in the public decision making process. Figure 1 is an example of such a process that contains all of these essential elements. While recognizing that the specific process utilized may have to be adjusted or modified to fit local circumstances, there are several essential elements that need to be addressed in any integrated process. Moreover, there may also be situations in which some elements of the approach have already been the subject of prior studies, and those would need to be incorporated into the overall framework, as appropriate. The key elements of an air quality management framework for each country or region could be constructed around answers to the following basic questions: 1. What are the air quality targets for the country/region, and when are they expected to be attained? 2. How are current air quality conditions identified and assessed relative to the contributions of various source categories? 3. How should an integrated emissions inventory system that includes all stationary and mobile sources be developed? 4. What are appropriate air quality modelling methodologies that can be used to simulate the impact of emission sources on ambient air quality? 5. What are the emission reductions that are necessary to meet the desired air quality targets? 6. How should potential control measures be prioritized in view of anticipated growth patterns, future emissions scenarios, and their cost-effectiveness? Figure 1 provides an example of a detailed process of urban air quality management, as elaborated previously by IPIECA (IPIECA, 1997). The same general approach is also advocated in a more recent technical paper issued by the World Bank (World Bank, 2001, 2004). The same basic process is used in the United States and Europe (see example of the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) process on page 10). The

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

Figure 1: An example of an urban air quality management process

Local emission inventory data stationary sources mobile sources fleet forecast and turnover vehicle usage emission factors Local meteorological and topographic data Local air quality data

Air quality models Primary sources of pollution

Necessary air quality improvements

Air quality guidelines (e.g. WHO)

Quantified impact of emission reduction measures: industrial plant power generation commercial operations domestic installations vehicles fuels inspections and maintenance others (e.g. fiscal, traffic management) Cost of implementing emission reduction measures

Emission reduction targets to achieve air quality criteria

Cost-effectiveness model

Least-cost solutions to meet air quality criteria

Temper output with public opinion/concerns

CAFE process looks at the contribution from all sectors including industry, agriculture, domestic, power generation, non-road transport, etc. The sections below will attempt to briefly address each of the questions posed above and provide references for additional guidance.

Setting air quality targets

The World Health Organization (WHO) has an important international role in setting health guidelines. In 1999 it published its comprehensive guidance titled the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (www.euro.who.int/air/Activities/20020620_1). This

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Clearing the air

Example: the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) process

CAFE is a structured analytical and policy setting approach consisting of the three phases outlined and depicted graphically below: 1. Risk Assessment What are the air quality issues of the region of interest? What are the pollutants of concern? 2. Risk Management What are the air quality targets for each pollutant of importance? What are the issues associated with an integrated analysis of regional air quality? 3. Policy Setting What are the selected options that are best suited to the region/country based on regulatory gap analysis? What is the share of transport in each pollutant emission? What emissions benefits are attributable to advanced vehicle technologies and what fuels are needed to enable those technologies? How will all this evolve in the future? What are the most cost-effective measures to be undertaken to achieve the targets?

CAFE Process: industry view

review of health effects simulation via Integrated Assessment Model cost vs. risk reduction

output indicators

targets

Base Case compliance cost vs. further gap closure

review of environmental effects

policy review

input data inventories

AQ model results measures/costs data

further measures
(Euro-wide; national; local)
Source: EUROPIA

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

Policy Setting

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

11

document provides background information that enables countries to set national or regional ambient air quality standards in the context of existing environmental, social, economic and cultural conditions. Application of the WHO Air Quality Guidelines is designed to assist countries in setting targets for significantly reducing exposure to poor air quality and its associated health effects. The WHO guidelines set out the range of ambient concentrations in exposureresponse relationships and give a maximum concentration for a pollutant, below which no adverse effect on human health is expected over the exposure time given. Generally, as the exposure time increases, the maximum allowable concentration decreases. Table 1 gives some examples of the guideline values for common air pollutants. The WHO recognizes that air pollution, both indoors and outdoors, is a major environmental health problem affecting developed and developing counties alike. Pollution sources of dust, gases and smoke are generated mainly by human activities but also emanate from natural sources such as forest fires, volcano eruptions and others.

Table 1: WHO Guideline values (1999) for common air pollutants*

Pollutant Annual ambient air concentration (g/m3) Guideline value (g/m3) Concentration at which effects on health start to be observed (g/m3)
Not applicable

Exposure time

CO

5007000

100 000 60 000 30 000 10 000

15 min 30 min 1 hour 8 hours

Lead NO2

0.012.0 10150

0.5 200 40

Not applicable 365565

1 year 1 hour 1 year

O3 SO2

10100 5400

120 500 125 50

Not applicable 1000 250 100

8 hour 10 min 24 hour 1 year

* The WHO has not published guidelines for Particulate Matter. It has only provided risk assessment graphs for guidance.

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Clearing the air

When inhaled, air pollutants affect the lungs and the respiratory tract and can also be taken up and transported by the blood throughout the body. Through deposition in the environment, air pollutants can also contaminate food and water sources. The main air pollutants addressed are suspended particulate matter, gases and vapours that are present in the atmosphere in high concentrations. Several observations of note by the WHO are:
Particulate matter affects more people on a continuing basis than any other

pollutant. There are more monitoring data and epidemiological evidence available on particulate pollution exposure than on any other pollutant and its health effects.
The main components of ambient particulate matter are coarse particles such as

soil, mineral ash and fine particles found in wood smoke or coming from engine exhausts; however, it is increasingly recognized that PM2.5 is the preferred metric when evaluating the relationship between health and PM.
Gaseous air pollutants are principally oxides of nitrogen (NOx ), carbon

monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), as well as those secondary pollutants (such as ozoneO3) formed when primary pollutants interact. In addition to the WHO, other international agencies are also involved in standard setting. For example, the United States has a lengthy and detailed process for setting up National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in accordance with the requirements of the US Clean Air Act. The European Union has also set its own health-related air quality targets, the most recent of which are for full compliance by the year 2010. Table 2 provides some examples of ambient air quality standards in selected countries. Trends currently observed around the world indicate that concentrations of sulphur dioxide and PM are decreasing in developed countries, while those of NOx and ozone are either constant or increasing. In developing countries, increasing traffic as well as industrial emissions are raising concentrations of SO2, NOx, O3 and PM. Since the primary objective of Urban Air Quality Management is the protection of human health, Guidelines such as those established by WHO should be considered as benchmarks or long-term objectives. In developing action plans there is a need to understand which pollutants of concern exceed the long-term goals by the greatest levelas part of overall priority setting. Specific decisions on country or regional air

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

13

Table 2: Some air quality standards for major pollutants in various countries (g/m3, except CO that is mg/m3)
Pollutant
SO2 NO2 CO TSP * PM10 PM2.5^ Lead

USA (Federal)
365 (24-hr av.) 100 (annual av.) 10 (8-hr av.) 150 (24-hr av.) 65 (24-hr av.) 15 (annual av.) 1.5 (quarterly av.)
PM

EU (directives)
125 (24-hr av.) 200 (1-hr av.) 10 (8-hr av.) 50 (24-hr av.) 0.5 (annual av.)

Thailand
300 (24-hr av.) 320 (1-hr av.) 20 (8-hr av.) 330 (24-hr av.) 10 (24-hr av.)
^PM

Malaysia
105 (24-hr av.) 320 (1-hr av.) 10 (8-hr av.) 150 (24-hr av.) 1.5 (annual av.)

* TSP = total suspended particulates

10 = particulate matter < 10 m diameter

2.5 = particulate matter < 2.5 m diameter

quality standards, and their respective attainment timetables, will have to be taken by appropriate international, national or regional authorities as part of evaluating their risk management options. In particular, it is important to note that setting intermediate targets and tracking progress using selected indicators will help guide the implementation of various programmes and initiatives and demonstrate achievements, when compared to business as usual, in reducing population exposure to both outdoor and indoor air pollutants.

Assessment of current air quality

Adequate information on existing air quality is an essential prerequisite for any rational and objective air quality management programme, and for formulating programme objectives and action plans. To that effect, many countries around the world are constructing and expanding their ambient air monitoring capabilities, and investigating trends of key indicators such as pollutant concentrations, population exposures and air quality indices. Air quality data obtained from strategically placed monitoring sites or from mobile survey platforms provide data on concentrations of key pollutants including their diurnal (day-to-night) and seasonal variations (Figures 2 and 3).

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Clearing the air

Figure 2: An example of data collected from monitoring of diurnal CO

Diurnal pattern for ambient CO concentrations in a UK city, 1997 (ppm) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 weekdays 0.2 0 Sundays 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 hour

Figure 3: An example of data collected from seasonal monitoring of ozone concentrations

Monthly maximum ambient ozone concentration at five sites in the UK, 1997 (ppb) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ary Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5

u Jan

r Feb

uar

Ma

rch

Apr

il

y Ma

Jun

July

month

ber ber ber tober ust em ecem Aug eptem Oc D Nov S

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

15

Air pollutants that are typically monitored include sulphur oxides (SOx ), nitrogen oxides (NOx ), particulate matter (including PM2.5 and TSP), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Some advanced monitoring networks or special studies might also concentrate on profiles of various specific compounds in the atmosphere. Some of the gaseous compounds investigated might include formaldehyde, ammonia or benzene, while particulate matter might be speciated to identify nitrates, sulphates or carbonaceous material content, as might be applicable for the specific information sought. New research is also looking into the significance of the size of particles and the effect of their chemical composition on human health. Ongoing air quality monitoring is required to understand the variation of concentrations of pollutants of concern over time. Generally accepted monitoring techniques have been formulated and introduced in many OECD countries and through the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Employing such standardized monitoring methods, including proper calibration and maintenance of sensors, will ensure that the data obtained will provide a consistent record of air concentrations and establish an indicator of the progress of air quality management measures introduced to the area.

Development of an emissions inventory system

Prior to developing any options for emission reductions or mitigation there is a need to establish an integrated emission inventory system. This system should account not just for the base year but also for future year stationary and mobile source emissions that can be used for forecasting ambient air quality through the exercise of appropriate air quality models. The data must be compiled either from existing databases or from new surveys. Understanding the relationship between current emissions and measured ambient air levels is essential for undertaking a system of control measures that will result in effective emission reductions. While not essential, this relationship is best determined by the use of mathematical models that help in correlating emission characteristics of different source categories with the observed concentration at monitoring sites. Models used are typically categorized as either dispersion models, simulating the dispersion of pollutants from given sources, or source-receptor models, simulating the observed measurement at a site and back-tracking the plumes to all the sources that might have an impact on it. Emission inventories for each source of emissions and

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Clearing the air

each pollutant of interest must be collected for the base year, and predicted for the subsequent years up to the target year when air quality targets will have to be met. Predictions of emissions will be linked to various socio-economic scenarios that are used for simulating levels of economic and social activity. Box 1 presents an example of the source categories that could be used in constructing an integrated emissions inventory system. Compiling good emission inventories for any area, urban or rural, requires information on energy use in all sectors of the economy (industry, domestic, commercial etc.) and on industrial processes, as well as detailed information on all forms of transport, i.e. rail, waterborne, air and road. Once the activity levels are established, emissions may be estimated by using the proper emission factor for the specific source category and fuel combination (US EPA, AP-42see references). It will be essential to also take account of construction and other ongoing activities and their contribution to particulate emissions, and the potential of natural sources, such as forests and dry land areas, to contribute to volatile organic compounds and dust in the atmosphere. Emission inventories rely on available data, and in many casesespecially in developing countries that are just starting the process of studying emission sources the data are sparse. In such cases it is sometimes necessary to invoke various extrapolation and estimation techniques, which need to be well documented in order to ensure that uncertainty in the resultant inventory is transparent. Table 3 provides an example of an emission inventory and source allocation for each pollutant in a given year (reproduced from NILU/IVM (1995), URBAIR). It is essential to carry out these data identification exercises before proceeding further with the emissions inventory.

Box 1: Source categories of an integrated emissions inventory system

An integrated emissions inventory system may be structured around the following source categories:

forest fires; passenger cars: fuelled by gasoline, diesel or alternative fuels; light-duty commercial vehicles; heavy-duty commercial vehicles; public sector transport, such as buses and shuttles; trains, barges and vessels; and two- or three-wheeled vehicles.

stationary sources: sub-classified into large (e.g. power stations), medium and small; domestic activities: home cooking, heating and cooling (if fuels other than electricity are used); waste disposal; crops/agricultural burning;

Table 3: An example of a TSP & SO2 source inventory for a major Asian city
TSP
tonnes/annum per cent tonnes/annum per cent 103 tonnes/annum

Emission sources

Vehicle type/industry

PM10

SO2

TRANSPORT SECTOR Exhaust gasoline vehicles 580 1,180 290 150 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.2 580 1,180 290 150 17.0 1.4 2.7 0.7 0.4

cars utility vehicles motorized cycles bus/truck

diesel vehicles

taxis utility vehicles jeepneys truck/bus 170 1,160 1,580 3,800 8,910 0.2 1.5 2.1 5.1 11.9 170 1,160 1,580 3,800 8,910 6,2506 14.9 4.7 28.9 3.0 0.1 101.8 216.6 24.2 ? 32.0 3,0005 7.1 ? 2,0102 12,2203 1,2804 20 40 33.4 2.8 0.4 2.7 3.8 9.0 21.1 25,000 2,1201 14,380 2,550 20 40 ? ? 16,990 19.2 3.4 0.1 22.6 13,570 8.0 6,000

TOTAL VEHICLE EXHAUST

Resuspension from roads

ENERGY/INDUSTRY SECTOR Power plants

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

Other fuel combustion heavy bunker oil fuel light diesel oil fuel kerosene LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) wood coal TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION (excluding power plants)

industrial/commercial industrial/domestic

Industrial processes 7

OTHER (<) 6,000 10,000 (<) 75,020 (<) 8.0 13.3 100
3 PM

Refuse burning 7

(<) 6,000 2,5006 (<) 42,240

14.2 5.9 100

10 = 0.85 x TSP (Ref.: EPA AP42)

359.6+
4 PM = 0.50 x TSP (Ref.: EPA AP42) 10

Construction 7

GRAND TOTALS:

TSP = total suspended particulates 1 Emission control: multicyclone 2 PM10 = 0.95 x TSP (Ref.: EPA AP42) 5 PM = 0.50 x TSP (rough estimate) 6 PM = 0.25 x TSP (rough estimate) 7 rough estimates 10 10

17

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Clearing the air

Addressing information shortcoming

The data requirements for detailed emission inventory studies are significant, and a common feature at the outset of most studies is a lack of good and comprehensive sets of data. Nevertheless, the gathering of adequate data of sufficient quality is essential. Data gathering can be a daunting task when faced with limited human, financial and technical resources. The approach adopted to gather the inventory model input data is often a trade-off between the precision required and the time and resources available. A schematic example of the process used to evaluate emission control scenarios is depicted in Figure 4. The accuracy of the inventory input data selected for evaluating the impacts of emission control measures is crucial for ensuring good prediction of the base case conditions, as well as the impact of control technologies on emissions. However, the anticipated use of the emission inventory will, in part, determine the level of accuracy of input data required. In fact, an emission inventory is likely to be used for two different purposes: 1. The prediction of absolute emission estimates as in the case when the emission model output is used as an input to an air quality dispersion model. In this case, the overall capability of the emission model to predict the correct answers must be thoroughly checked. 2. The calculation of sensitivity analysis such as emission changes that result from changes in activity indicators (e.g. industry throughput, vehicle speeds, fleet compositions and emission control technologies, fuel specification changes etc.) In these cases the ability of the emission model to calculate and predict the impact of these relative sensitivities has greater importance than the absolute accuracy.
Outputs
mobile and stationary source emission profiles cost-effectiveness assessment of control measures

Figure 4: A schematic example of the processes used to evaluate emission control scenarios
Base case inputs
human population quality of life energy demand emission factors vehicle population modes of use energy demand emission factors base case evaluations of emission control options: mobile sources stationary sources NOx, SOx, CO, HC, PM10, Pb, CO2 stationary source profile major sector process options energy demand emission factors

Base case output and validation Scenarios

In general, experience shows that only when it is possible to have highly detailed and reliable input data can the use of the most complex and advanced models be justified.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

19

Selection of air quality models

Managing the massive amount of data needed to develop a structured air quality management plan will require the use of computer-based models. The complexity of the model(s) selected should be compatible with the data available. Typical urban airshed modelling systems require a wealth of information, which might not be available in regions and areas just embarking on the planning process. The lack of immediate access to sophisticated models should not be regarded as a barrier to progress. Modelling experience can be built up in stages and the value to be obtained from simple approaches, especially in the early stages of work, should not be underestimated. Most air quality modelling (AQM) systems consist of three main modules: 1. emission forecasting moduleto predict the effects of already-agreed measures and possible future measures on emissions from road transport as well as other (e.g. stationary) sources; 2. meteorological transport moduleto forecast wind patterns, inversions and temperature impacts; and 3. dispersion moduleto determine the contribution due to the movement of transport and of emissions from different sources to ground-level air concentrations. Sophisticated models will also predict changes due to atmospheric chemical reactions. There is no standard air quality model, and most air quality modelling systems need to be adapted to specific cities or regions. The link between these three modelling components of an AQM system is shown schematically in Figure 5.

Figure 5: A schematic representation of the relationship between emission forecasting, meteorological transport, and dispersion modules/models in an air quality modelling system
Emission models Transportation Stationary Source Emission Model Source Emission Model (TSEM) (SSEM) Meteorological model

Dispersion model

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The chosen modelling system utilizes the meteorological, topographic, and emission data to derive a base year prediction of air quality. The modelled data is then evaluated against available air quality measurements, to confirm that the chosen model adequately represents the spatial and temporal distribution of ambient air concentrations. This stage of the analysis is sometimes referred to as the model performance evaluation and it is critical to establishing the validity of the data generated by the modelling system. In most cases differences are expected to range from 1520 % and upward, due to the complexity of the systems being simulated. Having established the relationship between emissions and air quality in the base year, the model may then be used to forecast potential air quality trends based on the anticipated influence of future emission patterns. These future emissions data should be derived from the socio-economic forecasting scenario studies, which take into account:
anticipated growth in mobile and stationary source emissions; the effect that can be achieved by improved vehicle emission control technology

and fuel quality changes;

possible changes in type and quality of energy sources; and legislation already agreed which will have an eventual impact on emissions, as

opposed to predicted future legislation for exhaust emission standards over time.

Forecasting air quality improvements

The development of regionally relevant socio-economic scenarios forms the basis for forecasting long-term trends. They serve as a foundation for understanding likely future emissions from all sources, be it mobile or stationary. At the macro economic level the scenarios include information on population growth, anticipated economic growth, national productivity and personal wealth, which triggers the related demands for energy, goods, services and mobility. Information on the likely growth of industry sectors and the expected increased energy demand and fuel mix can be directly translated into emissions forecasts for respective source categories. These kinds of forecasts rely both on historical data the business as usual caseand a range of options that might arise either because of imposed government direction or because of changing societal expectations.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

21

Emission control measures

All feasible emissions control measures for both stationary and mobile sources should be listed with their associated potential for emission reduction over the time period anticipated for implementation. Measures to be considered might be classified in the following categories:
emission performance limits for key pollutants from existing and new stationary

sources (dry cleaning, localized industrial power plants, electric generators, etc.);
tail-pipe emissions performance standards for new vehicles; initiatives to retrofit existing vehicles; inspection and maintenance (I&M) requirements for vehicles; motor fuels specifications; traffic planning initiatives; scrappage schemes; transportation control measures; and energy consumption and fuel mix projections for the various source categories.

For stationary sources, emission reductions can be estimated based on fuel consumption, using emission factors for each type of fuel, as applicable, and by applying a control efficiency factor for the introduction of new technologies. This macro approach for estimating emission reductions from fuel consumption could also be used in the transport sector in the absence of more detailed information about specific emission factors for the different types of vehicles in the fleet and their use characteristics. Although customizing emission factors for the individual location is preferable, it is also possible to obtain a first order estimate through use of published emission factors, for example those contained in the EU COPERT/FOREMOVE/ TREMOVE models. Table 4 on the following page provides an example of projected fuel consumption for all energy sources, courtesy of JICA/BAPEDAL.

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Table 4: Example of projected fuel consumption in a major Asian city

1998
19901998 0.5 1.1 3.0 11.1 10.5 8.8 6.1 6.4 6.4 5.4 4.4 4.6 5.1 10.6 11.0 7.8 7.7 6.3 1.4 61.3 3.7 1.1 1.9 6.3 96.2 2.4 5.5 0.6 33.9 2.0 0.6 0.3 14.7 1.1 0.3 19982008 20082018

Fuel

Unit 2008 2018 Growth rates (%)

1990

INDUSTRY

ADO + IDO + FO

million kilolitres

coal

million tonnes

natural gas

BCF

ROAD TRANSPORT

gasoline

million kilolitres

ADO

million kilolitres

POWER 0.3 0.1 0.2 17.7 57.0 8.0 10.0 4.0 6.3 9.5 2.2 99.8 1.4 161.3 2.4 7.8 6.1 4.0 18.1 10.6
LPG = liquefied petroleum gas

PLN ADO + IDO + FO 0.4 62.1 1.7 3.0 2.2 0.7 24.8 37.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 3.7 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.0 59.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.8 15.7 0.3

million kilolitres

12.1 4.1 7.3 8.2 4.0 6.4 9.0 4.0 5.3 8.8
BCF = billion cubic feet

5.3 5.2 8.7 8.7 4.0 5.4 6.5 4.0 4.9 5.1

PLN natural gas

BCF

Clearing the air

Captive IDO + ADO

million kilolitres

Captive natural gas

BCF

HOUSEHOLDS

kerosene + LPG

million kilolitres

TOTALS

gasoline

million kilolitres

ADO + IDO + FO

million kilolitres

kerosene + LPG

million kilolitres

natural gas

BCF

coal

million tonnes

ADO = automotive diesel oil

IDO = industrial diesel oil

FO = fuel oil

PLN = Perum Listrik Negara (State Power Corporation)

Source: The Study on the Integrated Air Quality Management for Jakarta Metropolitan Area in the Republic of Indonesia. Interim Report. JICA/BAPEDAL, July 1996.

Strategies and options for urban air quality management

23

Identification of air quality improvements

Air quality modelling tools that use information about initial air quality levels combined with the potential for emission reductions (from tentative control measures) could be compared with the pre-set air quality targets in order to assess the following:
what level of air quality improvement can be achieved by various measures; and what reductions in emissions will be required in order to meet particular air

quality targets out to the horizon year for a given scenario?

Prioritization of control measures

The purpose of any air quality management programme should be to provide policy makers with an objective assessment of possible measures that could be adopted to improve ambient air quality and attain previously established targets. This assessment must take the form of a comparative ranking of the cost-effectiveness of all the possible types of measures that were discussed in the previous sections of this report.

Cost analysis
For each measure, or package of measures, the following cost categories should be identified:
investment or capital costs for implementing the new measures; direct operating costs (variable and fixed); administrative and regulatory costs associated with monitoring and enforcement;

Box 2: Examples of potential fuel measures that could be prioritized

Switch from heavy fuel to natural gas in power stations Change from coal or wood to LPG and kerosene in domestic uses Convert public sector vehicles to CNG

Use clean coal technologies including lower sulphur levels in coal Lower sulphur levels in petroleum based fuels (gasoline and diesel)

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indirect costs, for example those relating to changes in fuel consumption; welfare costs arising as a result of changes in relative prices and/or employment

opportunities; and
reduction of indirect health costs due to reduced air pollution-related morbidity.

For such an economic analysis, only the incremental costs of introducing a measure are relevant. Any costs which the parties affected by a measure would have had to bear even if the measure had not been introduced are not relevant. Nor are costs that merely represent a transfer from one part of the economy to another, such as taxes, however changes in overall tax revenue may have an influence and studies should therefore still be carried out in order that they may be appropriately discounted.

Conversion of costs to a common basis

In order to ensure consistency in the treatment of different measures, all cost data should be converted to a common basis, as follows:
all costs should be measured in constant prices for an agreed base year; the flow of costs between the base year and the target year must be discounted

back to the base year by applying a discount rate of an agreed percentage;

the Net Present Value (NPV) of these costs has to be computed by summing the

discounted cash flow; and

the NPV should be divided by the economic lifetime of a particular measure to

calculate the annual economic costs of that measure.

Cost-effectiveness prioritization
The following represents a set of essential features that should be considered when selecting an approach for conducting cost-effectiveness analysis and prioritization as part of the decision making process:
minimization of the total costs of the range of measures considered for reducing

stationary and mobile source emissions by given amounts for a given year;
ability to handle simultaneous emission reduction targets for several pollutants; and generation of marginal cost curves that indicate the relationship between the

cost of implementing different combinations of technical measures and their impact on emissions.

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Figure 6: An example of a cost-effectiveness model

Economic activities Emission control policies

Agricultural activity

NH3 control & costs

NH3 emissions

NH3 dispersion Critical loads for eutrophication

Energy combustion

SO2 control & costs

SO2 emissions

S dispersion Critical loads for acidification

NOx control & costs NOx emissions Transport Emission control & costs VOC emissions Industrial production VOC control & costs O3 formation Critical levels for ozone NOx dispersion

Emission control costs

Environmental impacts

Source: Cost-effective Control of Acidification and Ground-level Ozone. First Interim Report to the European Commission, DG-XI, IIASA, 1996.

Figure 6 presents an example developed for the European Commission in the assessment of cost-effective controls for reducing acidification and exposure to ground level ozone. The application of these cost-effectiveness criteria will assist decision makers in ranking, prioritization and final selection of the appropriate control measures that would be targeted for implementation as part of the overall air quality management plan.

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Contribution of automotive transport options to air quality management

The structured air quality management framework discussed above has addressed the need to list optional control measures for various source categories in search for an optimal package of measures that could be implemented in order to meet air quality targets. In going down that path, it is immediately evident that emissions from the transport sector are an increasingly significant contributor to ambient air quality, and all countries face the challenge of trying to reconcile growth and increased mobility with urban air quality deterioration. With rapidly increasing populations and vehicles, developing countries, especially, face the daunting task of seeking to reduce motor vehicle emissions while increasing economic activity and social well-being with limited resources. Over the past decade numerous studies and reports have addressed strategic options for reducing motor vehicle emissions to advance the attainment of ambient air quality targets (UN, 2002). Developing such a strategy will involve the selection of a coherent set of measures that, when taken together, will reduce the emissions of transport pollutants. These measures can be technology-oriented, targeting the vehicles and the fuel used along with good maintenance practices within the sector, or they can be behavioural, seeking to reduce (or prevent increases in) the amount of activity of the most polluting vehicles. They may also focus on systemic aspects of the transport systemsways in which the transport network influences either the aggregate amount of vehicle use or the emissions intensity of individual vehicles.

Priorities for action

New and advanced technologies have a lot to offer towards addressing the reduction of emissions from the transport sector. However, pragmatic approaches are needed and the solutions have to be appropriate for local conditions and the economy in question. The experience gained in OECD countries can be used in developing countries to tackle their problems. It has been widely recognized that the most

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Figure 7: Determining emissions control strategiesa schematic example based on the general approach taken by the ARPEL/Clean Air Initiative project in Latin America

Vehicle emissions factors on real conditions Driving habits Technology features of the car fleet Fuel properties Emission factors vs. fuel properties I/M vehicle programmes

Baseline inventories of vehicle emissions Qualitative and quantitative identification of the problem

Emission inventory model (EIM)

Scenarios based on real emissions

Sensitivity and cost-effectiveness Capacity building

successful strategies are those that consider, simultaneously, vehicle technology, fuel quality and the in-use condition of the vehicles. Moreover, accumulated experience has shown that the order of priority for implementing cost-effective strategies to deal with automotive emissions reductions in cities, in the early stages of developing urban air quality programmes, are: 1. vehicle inspection and maintenance programmes with suitable testing and enforcement policies, as appropriate for each countrys circumstances; 2. transportation planning and traffic congestion management, including expanded choices for reliable and efficient public transport. Efficient public transport does not necessarily mean more busesit could mean an increase in bus-only lanes to speed up traffic flow; 3. introduction of cleaner vehicles (with appropriate catalytic exhaust systems) and the fuels needed for their proper operation (unleaded, reduced sulphur); 4. fuel selection, focusing on optimal use of available fossil fuels, gaseous fuels, biofuels, other alternative fuels and indigenous resources, while taking into account the comparative environmental impact of the full fuel cycle, or a socalled well-to-wheels approach; and 5. introduction of economic incentives to encourage economic and efficient technology retrofits of the existing vehicle fleets. The example overleaf summarizes the systematic approach used in the Latin American and Caribbean Region for the selection of appropriate control levels.

Source: ARPEL

Implementation of a systemic approach to control urban vehicular emissions

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Example: ARPELs Systemic Approach to Vehicular Emission Control in Latin America and The Caribbean
ARPEL (the Regional Association of Oil and Natural Gas Companies in Latin America and The Caribbean) is a member of the World Bank Clean Air Initiative in Latin American Cities (CAI-LAC). Their contribution to the partnership consists of marshalling industry resources and participating in joint regional studies and strategy deliberations. The general approach taken by the ARPEL/CAI project is shown schematically on page 27.

In their May 2001 report, bearing the above title, ARPEL notes:

Vehicle technology advances and the enforcement of their implementation are generally accompanied by new fuel specifications in order to comply with increasingly stringent emission standards. The systemic modification of vehicle technology and fuels properties, proposed for

Impact of vehicle technology on the control of exhaust emissions for light-duty gasoline fuelled vehicles
Parameter % controlled (compared to uncontrolled levels) 66 63 11 89 83 39 94 95 71 94 98 71 96 97 88 99 99 94 Required controls

Increasingly stricter fuels standards and emission controls

HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx

Ignition timing Air/fuel ratio Air injection, EGR Oxidation catalyst Injection timing EGR 3-way catalyst Closed loop carburettor or EFI EFI Oxidation catalyst EFI Fast burning combustion chamber 3-way catalyst EFI EGR close-coupled catalyst EFI EGR
WB standards for LAC in 2005 (ARPEL estimate = US Tier 1 and Euro 2
Source: ARPEL

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the region in 2005, would allow for the reduction of more than 90 per cent of vehicle emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean.

when compared to vehicles without emission controls. The conclusion is that the systemic approach being undertaken to assess the various options for controlling vehicular emissions will enable the development of sustainable urban air quality improvement measures in the Latin America and Caribbean region.

Adequate management of city traffic and congestion may lead to a 5- to 10-fold reduction in vehicle emissions.

Under the same use conditions, vehicles with emission control devices will have up to two orders of magnitude lower emissions

Impact of vehicle technology on the control of exhaust emissions in light-duty diesel fuelled vehicles
Parameter Increasingly stricter fuels standards and emission controls % controlled (compared to uncontrolled levels) 40 33 Required controls

NOx PM

Injection timing Combustion optimization

WB standards for LAC in 2005 (ARPEL estimate = US Tier 1 and Euro 2

NOx PM

40 78

Variable injection timing Combustion optimization, EGR

PM

92

EGR, catalytic converter or particle trap

EFI = electronic fuel injection EGR = exhaust gas recirculation

Source: ARPEL

NOx

50

EFI, combustion optimization

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Stakeholder engagement and communication

The success or otherwise of any urban air quality management initiative requires widespread stakeholder engagement, communication, and cooperation. Stakeholders in this effort are not limited to industry, government or regulatory authorities or intergovernmental organizations. The full cooperation and understanding of the entire population is essential if policies are to be effective; understanding is an essential prerequisite to compliance. In addition to setting air quality objectives (AQOs) based on sound science, and controlling emissions based on an understanding of the source inventory, successful programmes typically rely on full societal cooperation. This in turn means presenting complex air quality information in ways that are understandable and easily visualized by all segments of the population, and in the case of health-related effects, in a way that provides the means for susceptible persons to protect themselves. Typically, this is done by using an Air Pollution Index (API) or an Air Quality Index (AQI) which is a combined basket of air pollution measurements (e.g. for NOx, SOx, ozone, CO, and particulates) individually weighted to reflect the likely longterm and short-term impact on health. This value is again adjusted to fit into a memorable sliding scale (010, 0200 or 0500 are common, with a desirable AQO threshold (say, the 24-hour AQO) set at the midpoint of the scale). In areas where periodic forest fires or heavy industrial activity contribute to smoke or smog episodes, the particulate number may be broken out into a Visibility Standard Index (VSI). In order to further increase the public acceptance of the system the API/AQI can be combined with a banding system (see example below). Combined with meteorological information, reasonably accurate forecasts of severe pollution episodes may be made.

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Figure 8: Example of a banded air pollution index

Banding Index
1

Health descriptor

Low

2 3 4

Effects are unlikely to be noticed even by individuals who know they are sensitive to air pollutants.

Moderate

5 6 7

Mild effects, unlikely to require action, may be noticed among sensitive individuals.

High

8 9

Significant effects may be noticed by sensitive individuals, and action to avoid or reduce these effects may be needed (e.g. reducing exposure by spending less time in polluted areas outdoors). Asthmatics will find that their reliever inhaler is likely to reverse the effects on the lung. The effects on sensitive individuals described for High levels of pollution may worsen.

Very high

10

In many cities, this process is automated, and the data is available to the public, via the internet, within minutes or hours of its collection. These indices and forecasts are a simple but effective way to provide timely information on air pollution levels to the public. In addition to enhancing awareness, they serve as advance warning so that susceptible groups (such as those with cardiac or respiratory illnesses) can take precautionary measures.

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Concluding thoughts
Automotive transport has become an integral part of modern life, with car ownership and individual mobility options becoming an essential part of increased economic growth. As of the year 2000 more than 500 million vehicles were registered worldwide; and OECD countries, with less than 15 per cent of the worlds population, accounted for more than 80 per cent of car registrations. However, demand is forecast to increase sharply worldwide and non-OECD countries are expected, by the year 2010, to account for more than one-third of the projected annual worldwide sales of 74 million vehicles (IPIECA, 1993). The formulation of transportation policy is made within a complex framework of differing jurisdictions, differing goals, and substantial interactions with other sectors and various aspects of economic and social life. Reaching an agreed set of goals is the starting point of an improved air quality programme. Policies designed to address the negative environmental impact of transportrelated air pollution should not focus exclusively on mitigation measures. They should also address long-term, proactive measures in a range of areas not normally perceived as being within the purview of air quality policy. Thus, air quality management programmes constructed around the framework described in this report will require significant allocation of time, human and material resources. It is expected that designing and implementing such a comprehensive programme would take more than three years. Concurrently, it is also useful to understand the limitations of historical efforts to achieve air quality improvement and the amount of energy and commitment that is required of all stakeholders in order to successfully adopt and implement the results of the completed assessment and prioritization steps described above. It should be reiterated that past experience indicates that conditions for success depend on the following:
The organizational structures created for implementation are a natural extension

of national and local institutions and are interdisciplinary in nature, cutting across multiple departments of government and many sectors of business and industry.
The efforts undertaken are designed to be politically appealing, by engaging the

public at large, making communities aware of developments, involved in the process, and endorse the recommendations.

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Effective air quality management programmes are those that seek to integrate

the different contributors into a working partnershipa partnership that is involved and committed to the definition of air quality goals, and to the elaboration and implementation of the programmes through locally acceptable solutions aimed at meeting the predefined air quality goals.
All of the partners are individually committed, from the outset, to implementing

the least-cost, prioritized recommendations that the assessment will show to be necessary to achieve future air quality goals. It has to be recognized that commitments of this kind may involve significant capital investments and changes in operating practices and costs, along with a significant extension of responsibilities for urban area local authorities. Without those prior commitments the value of this structured approach to urban air quality management will not be realized, and the final decision-making process, for which government will always be responsible, will not capture the full benefits of the partnership programme. In the vein of creating partnerships, IPIECA was one of the key players involved in the creation of the United Nations Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles, which was one of the key outcomes emanating from the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD). This UN-based partnership was convened to address the need for capacity building and information exchange on fuel and vehicle issues, in the context of improving air quality in developing countries. This partnership brings together, and enables discussions between, the oil and automobile industries, NGOs, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Bank and national regulators from developed and developing countries. The focus of the discussions at this partnership is the implementation of global and regional initiatives that will facilitate the complete phase out of lead worldwide, and the gradual phase down of sulphur (www.unep.org/pcfv). These topics will also be addressed in upcoming volumes of this report series.

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Bibliography
ARPEL, 2001. Systemic Approach to Vehicular Emission Control in Latin America and the Caribbean, ARPEL, Montevideo, Uruguay, May 2001. Available on line from the ARPEL library at: http://domino.arpel.org/aplicaciones/biblioteca/ML _ lib.nsf IPIECA, 1993. The contribution of automotive transport options to the management of air quality in the developing economies, An IPIECA Issue Paper, London, United Kingdom, June 1993. IPIECA, 1997. Urban Air Quality Management: Volume 1, IPIECA, London, United Kingdom. IPIECA, 2001. Urban Air Quality Management: Volume 2, IPIECA, London, United Kingdom. Lilley, L.C., Unsworth, J.F. & Whitefield, K.E., 2000. New Approaches to emissions inventory modellingfuel, vehicle and novel technology impacts on air quality. Paper for presentation at the 2nd International Symposium on Technological and Environmental Topics in Transports, 2627 October, 2000. Scuola Superiore Enricio Mattei, Milano, Italy. NILU, 1995. URBAIR: Urban Air Quality Management Strategy in Asia. Metro Manila, City Specific Report. Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway/Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM) Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, December 1995. OECD, 2001. Towards Clean Transport, Fuel Efficient and Clean Motor Vehicles. OECD, Paris, France. United Nations, 2002. Air Pollution from Ground Transportation: An Assessment of Causes, Strategies and Tactics and Proposed Actions for the International Community, Global Initiative on Transport Emissions, United Nations, New York, USA.

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US Environmental Protection Agency, Air Quality Modelling Division, Support Center for Regulatory Air Models. www.epa.gov/ttn/scram US Environmental Protection Agency, Technology Transfer Network, Clearinghouse for Inventories & Emission Factors. www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/index.html World Health Organization (WHO), 1999, WHO Air Quality Guidelines. www.who.int/environmental _information/Air/ Guidelines/Chapter3.htm#3 World Bank, 1998. Environmental management and institutions in OECD Countries: Lessons from Experience, The World Bank, Technical Paper WTP 391, Washington DC, USA, May 1998. World Bank, 1999. Toward Environmental Strategies for Cities, Policy Considerations for Urban Environmental Management in Developing Countries, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA. World Bank, 2001. Urban Air Quality management: Coordinating Transport, Environment, and Energy Policies in Developing Countries, The World Bank, Technical Paper WTP 508, Washington DC, USA, September 2001. World Bank, 2004. Urban Air Pollution: Policy Framework for Mobile Sources, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA.

IPIECA

The International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) is comprised of oil and gas companies and associations from around the world. Founded in 1974 following the establishment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), IPIECA provides one of the industrys principal channels of communication with the United Nations. IPIECA is the single global association representing both the upstream and downstream oil and gas industry on key global social and environmental issues including: oil spill preparedness and response; global climate change; health; fuel quality; biodiversity; and social responsibility.

International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association 5th Floor, 209215 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8NL, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7633 2388 Fax: +44 (0)20 7633 2389 E-mail: info@ipieca.org Internet: www.ipieca.org