Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
=
n
t
t
m
j
t j t j
k
1 =
1
, ,
1
ER E CF E
= Value
E (CF
j,t
) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S. parent at the end of period t
E (ER
j,t
) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent
Technical Forecasting
Fundamental Forecasting
Market-based Forecasting
Mixed Forecasting
C9 - 37
Why Firms Forecast Exchange Rates
Forecasting Techniques
Technical Forecasting
Fundamental Forecasting
Market-Based Forecasting
Mixed Forecasting
Forecasting Services
Performance of Forecasting Services
Chapter Review
C9 - 38
Chapter Review
Evaluation of Forecast Performance
Forecast Accuracy Over Time
Forecast Accuracy Among Currencies
Search for Forecast Bias
Statistical Test of Forecast Bias
Graphic Evaluation of Forecast
Performance
Comparison of Forecasting Techniques
C9 - 39
Chapter Review
Forecasting Under Market Efficiency
Exchange Rate Volatility
Application of Exchange Rate Forecasting
to the Asian Crisis
How Exchange Rate Forecasting Affects
an MNCs Value