Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Cost range
Conceptual Planning
Alternatives Analysis
Preliminary Engineering
Final Design
Bid
Construction
Risk Management
A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect REAL REASON WE NEEDprojects success. the likelihood of a TO DO RISK MANAGEMENT
What can go wrong (risk event/problems). BUT TOWhat can be done before an event occurs (anticipation of ENABLE AGGRESSIVE RISK TAKING Alternatives)
Informal methods
Use what works for you at the time Use Lessons Learned in Project Post-Mortems to learn from past mistakes
Budget(including contingency funding) Who is doing what How often When a risk is really a risk Reporting requirements- Who, when, how often, what, etc Monitoring, tracking and documenting strategies
Make sure you are not OVER Planning
2. Identifying Risk
Continuous, Iterative Process What is it and what does it look like- Different for each project and person consulted. The sooner it is identified the better it is for project The more the involvement of stakeholders the better the process outcome A fact is not a risk- If you know something is going to occur
then you plan for it not the risk of it. RISK vs PROBLEM
Be specific- identify the risk and a trigger/cause of the risk Dont try to do everything at once- qualify, quantify, or
remedy
Identification Techniques
Brainstorming Checklists- Lists developed to aid in identifying risks Interviewing SWOT Analysis Delphi Technique Diagramming Techniques
Cause & effect Ishikawa or Fishbone Flow Charts etc.
3. Risk Assessment
This information should be developed for each risk: Description of risk All the possible outcomes of the risk The magnitude or severity of the outcomes Likelihood (probability) of the risk occurring, and likelihood of each possible outcome When the risk might occur during the project Interaction of the risk outcomes with other parts of this project or other projects
Risk #1
1 to 5 Scale
Priorities
Red - High Yellow - Med Green - Low
Impact
Risk #4
Risk #3
Lower Impact
Risk #2
Risk #5
Higher Probability
Probability of Occurrance
In 1-10 scale
Probability/Impact Matrix
A probability/impact matrix or chart lists the relative probability of a risk occurring on one side of a matrix or axis on a chart and the relative impact of the risk occurring on the other List the risks and then label each one as high, medium, or low in terms of its probability of occurrence and its impact if it did occur Can also calculate risk factors Numbers that represent the overall risk of specific events based on their probability of occurring and the consequences to the project if they do occur
1 2
25% 50%
$45,000
$2,000
$100,000
30%
Simulation
Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system Monte Carlo analysis simulates a models outcome many times to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to show the effects of changing one or more variables on an outcome
Avoiding Risk: Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition
Risk Register
The main output of the risk identification process is a list of identified risks and other information needed to begin creating a risk register A risk register is:
A document that contains the results of various risk management processes and that is often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format
1. Right-of-Way
R1 Right-of-Way costs and/or schedule greater than anticipated ; includes: uncertainty in amount of ROW unit prices excessive condemnation relocation, demolition business mitigation City waterline project not completed as planned City sewer project not completed as planned City vaults not completed as planned Private utility relocations not completed as planned (utility company fails to move on time) Delay in obtaining agreement between grantee and private utilities Projects adjustment budget for private utilities is too low Encounter unexpected utilities during construction Row-of-way cost and quantity estimates are out of date and not based upon the latest design drawings; additional takes affect businesses in Line Section 3. Risks affect project cost estimate and start of construction in certain line sections. Delay causes project delay and increased overhead costs for project Delay causes project delay and increased overhead costs for project Delay causes project delay and increased overhead costs for project Delay causes project delay and increased overhead costs for project All construction line sections; components, 01-10 .5 (.5) $2,000.0 ($0) 6 (0)
2. Utilities
U1 U2 U3 U4 Components 02-05 Components 02-05 Components 02-05 All construction line sections, components 01-10 Components 01-10 Components 01-10 Components 01-10 .25 .25 .25 .25 .9 T=.1 T=.5 T=.9 .8 .2 .5 .1 .5 TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD $2,000.0 $3,000.0 $500.0 6 12 6 12 4 2 4 6 2 3 0 0 1
U5 U6 U7
Delays FFGA/grant award and potentially start of construction Cost increase to grantee for payment of additional relocation costs Change order claim by contractor results; cost and schedule impacts
Contingency Planning
A contingency plan is an alternative plan used if a risk event or condition occurs. Examples: Having a backup supplier for a key material Carrying a safety stock for a key part Having an alternate distribution channel to send products (air instead of boat) Having hurricane/flood/earthquake/cyclone evacuation plans
General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks
Integrated Risk Management extracts actionable information from traditionally stove-piped data streams
Risk Exposure? Impact Relationships? Goals Too Risky? Which Design? More Reserves? Major Drivers? Adequately Mitigated?
management process Quantitative assessments of risk impacts estimated against cost and schedule baselines Defined risk filtration criteria Risk reduction at the lowest level of the organization A defined set of risk consequence definitions for performance, schedule, and cost Structured approached for communicating risk across multiple programs/organizational levels
Enterprise Level
Program Level
- Is the project on track to meet or exceed its threshold requirements? - How do current risk levels impact the ability to meet critical schedule milestones? - Which design solution provides the optimal balance between capital and operating costs?
Project Level
- What are the technical performance risks associated with delivering a given requirement or capability? - How will assembly, integration, and test schedules be impacted by a given risk event? - What are the cost impacts of delays in subcontractor deliveries?
Subproject Level
Risks ultimately should be filtered to the lowest level possible for ownership and mitigation
Creates understanding of information Defines linkages Establish working group or other forum Gather feedback prior to go-live Promotes buy-in
Sustains participation
COMMUNICATION
*Kulik, Peter and Catherine Weber, Software Risk Management Practices 2001, KLCI Research Group (August 2001).
Hildebrand, Carol. If At First You Dont Succeed, CIO Enterprise Magazine, April 15, 1998