Decision Support Systems

A Stitch In Time Saves Nine

Nakadi Sarang 65 Nishar Harshal 66 Padmanabhan Vineesh 67 Pai Ajay 68 Pandey Saurabh 69 Parate Shrikant 70 Patanwala Owais 71 Patil Ajinkya 72

Introduction History Types Architecture Case Studies

Agenda

Introduction

A Management Level Computer System which combines:

Data Models User - friendly software

For semi structured & unstructured decision making It utilizes data, provides an easy-to-use interface, and allows for the decision maker's own insights

Managers Roles & Decision Making

Performs following roles:
Interpersonal roles Informational roles Decisional roles

Decision refers to a choice that individuals and group make among two or more alternatives Decision making is systematic process including following steps

Essential steps
Step 1 Concept of Project is Identified Decision To ProceedDecision To Abandon Step 2 Project assessment. Taking account of all issues involved

Decision To ProceedDecision To Abandon

Step 3 Project Goes to Detail Specification For Tender Decision To ProceedDecision To Abandon Step 4

Tender Accepted. Construction Starts

Decision To ProceedDecision To Abandon Step 5 Operation Starts Decision To ProceedDecision To Abandon

Decision Making Characteristics

Decision is made based on the information available At each part of the assessment, there may have to be iterative development to take account improvement in data that take place as the project proceeds A project will not go ahead unless there is adequate funding

Benefits of DSS
Helps in saving time Improves efficiency Boosts up interpersonal communication Provides competitive advantage Helps in reducing cost High satisfaction among decision makers Supports learning Enhanced organizational control

Management
Management is decision making The manager is a decision maker Organizations are filled with decision makers at different level. Management is considered as art: a talent acquired over years by trialand-error. However decision making today is becoming more complicated: Technology / Information/Computers : increasing More alternative to choose Structural Complexity / Competition : increasing larger cost of error International markets / Consumerism : increasing more uncertainty about future Changes, Fluctuations : increasing need for quick decision

Information and Decision

Information Quality
Time
Timeliness Frequency Up to date

Content
Accuracy Completeness Scope

Form
Clarity Order presentation

Decision Structure
Structured: situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be specified in advance
Repetitive Standard solution methods exist Complete automation may be feasible

Unstructured: decision situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to follow
One-time No standard solutions Rely on judgment Automation is usually infeasible

Semi-structured: decision procedures that can be pre specified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decision
Some elements and/or phases of decision making process have repetitive elements

Evolution
1945: Bush proposed Memex 1955: Semiautomatic Ground Environment (SAGE) project at M.I.T. Lincoln Lab uses first light pen; SAGE completed 1962, first data-driven DSS 1956: Forrester started System Dynamics Group at the M.I.T. Sloan School 1962: Iversons book A Programming Language (APL); Engelbart's paper "Augmenting Human Intellect: A Conceptual Framework 1965: Stanford team led by Feigenbaum created DENDRAL expert system; Problem Statement Language/Problem Statement Analyzer (PSL/PSA) developed at Case Institute of Technology 1966: UNIVAC 494 introduced; Tymshare founded and Raymond article on computer time-sharing for business planning and budgeting

Evolution
1968: Demonstration of groupware system NLS 1970: Little article on decision calculus support system; Joyner and Tunstall article on Conference Coordinator computer software; IRI Express, a multidimensional analytic tool for time-sharing systems, Turoff conferencing system 1971: Gorry and Scott Morton SMR article first published use of term Decision Support System; Gerrity article Man-Machine decision systems 1973: PLATO Notes by David R. Woolley 1974: Meador-Ness article: DSS application incorporate planning 1975: Alter dissertation "A Study of Computer Aided Decision Making in Organizations"; Keen SMR article on evaluating computer-based decision aids 1976-78: Sprague and Watson article "A Decision Support System for Banks; Alter article "A Taxonomy of Decision Support Systems; Development began on Management Information and Decision Support (MIDS)

Evolution
1981: First International Conference on DSS - Atlanta, Georgia 1982: ESRI launched its first commercial GIS software called ARC/INFO; IFIP Working Group 8.3 on Decision Support Systems established 1983: IBM DB2 Decision Support database released; Student Guide to IFPS by Gray; Expert Choice software released 1984: PLEXSYS, Mindsight and SAMM GDSS; first Teradata computer with relational database management system released; MYCIN expert system shell 1985: P&G use first data mart from Metaphor to analyze data from checkout-counter scanners 1987: Houdeshel and Watson article on MIDS; marketed solver add-in for Excel 1988: Turban DSS textbook; Pilot Software EIS for Balanced Scorecard deployed at Analog Devices

Evolution
1989: Dresner coins term business intelligence; release of Lotus Notes; International Society for DSS (ISDSS) founded by Holsapple and Whinston 1990: Oracle use in build Decision Support Systems 1993: Codd et al. paper defines (OLAP) 1994: HTML 2.0 with form tags and tables 1995 : The Data Warehousing Institute (TDWI) established1997: Wal-Mart and Teradata created then worlds largest production data warehouse at 24 TB 1998: ACM First International Workshop on Data Warehousing and OLAP 2001: Association for Information Systems (AIS) Special Interest Group on Decision Support, Knowledge and Data Management Systems (SIG DSS) founded 2003: International Society for Decision Support Systems (ISDSS) merged with AIS SIG DSS

Objectives
Describe seven basic types of DSS. Discuss different categories of DSS.
Based on support Based on nature of decision situation Based on number of users

Understand where different types of DSS fit into Simons model of decision making.

The DSS Hierarchy

Suggestion systems Optimization systems Representational models Accounting models Analysis information systems Data analysis systems File drawer systems

File Drawer Systems

They are the simplest type of DSS Can provide access to data items Data is used to make a decision ATM Machine Use the balance to make transfer of funds decisions

Data Analysis Systems

Provide access to data Allows data manipulation capabilities Airline Reservation system No more seats available Provide alternative flights you can use Use the info to make flight plans

Analysis Information Systems

Information from several files are combined Some of these files may be external We have a true data base The information from one file, table, can be combined with information from other files to answer a specific query.

Accounting Models
Use internal accounting data Provide accounting modeling capabilities Can not handle uncertainty Use Bill of Material
Calculate production cost Make pricing decisions

Representational Model
Can incorporate uncertainty Uses models to solve decision problem using forecasts Can be used to augment the capabilities of Accounting models Use the demand data to forecast next years demand Use the results to make inventory decisions.

Optimization Systems
Used to estimate the effects of different decision alternative Based on optimization models Can incorporate uncertainty Assign sales force to territory Provide the best assignment schedule

Suggestion Systems
A descriptive model used to suggest to the decision maker the best action A prescriptive model used to suggest to the decision maker the best action May incorporate an Expert System Use the system to recommend a decision Ex: Applicant applies for personal loan

DSS Categories
Support-based categories (Alter 1980)

Nature of the decision situation (Donovan & Madnick 1977)

User-based categories (Keen 1980)

DSS Categories
Support based DSS
Data-driven DSS
Targeted at managers, staff, product and service suppliers Query a database for specific purposes Deployed via mainframe, client server or web Example : Computer based data bases with a query system
Just Dial services

Model-driven DSS
Analyze decisions or choose between different options Used by managers, staff, people who interact with the organization Deployed via software-hardware in stand-alone PCs , Client Server systems or the web.

DSS Categories
Support based DSS
Knowledge-driven DSS
Targeted at people within the organization and consumers Used to provide management advice or to choose products Deployed via software on stand-alone PCs, client server or web

Document-driven DSS
Targeted at broad base of user groups Used to search web pages, find documents Deployed via Client Server systems or the web.

DSS Categories
Support based DSS
Communication-driven DSS
Targeted at internal teams Used to conduct meetings Deployed via client server or web Example : Chats, instant messaging softwares

DSS Categories
Based on the nature of the decision situation
Institutional
Culture of the organization Regularly used Used by more than one persons

Ad hoc
One of kind One-time use Used by single individual

Based on number of users

Individual Multi-individual Group
Benefits
Improving personal efficiency Expediting problem solving Facilitating communication Promoting learning Increasing control

DSS Categories

Individual H L L M L

Multi- Group individual H L M L H H H H H M

Simons Model
External Intelligence Internal

Problem Identification

Design

Qualitative Analysis

DSS

Quantitative Analysis

GDSS Decision

Choice

ARCHITECTURE

Fundamental Components of DSS

The database (or knowledge base) The model (i.e., the decision context and user criteria) The user interface

Monitoring and Analysis Module

The module allows to monitor and analyze the following information Financial and economic indicators Production indicators Business efficiency indicators

Planning and Budgeting Module

Prepare and manage business plans and budgets Allow enterprises to monitor and evaluate the execution and implementation of business plans and budget measures Encourage collaboration through seamless document workflow tools Conduct financial budgeting and forecasting using a variety of methodologies including: topdown, bottom-up and hybrid

Modelling and Forecasting Module

Create dynamic financial and economic models. Allow users to build short-term forecast models Also allow users to build medium and long-term forecast models, to project a longer term outlook for their enterprises. Compare, rank and benchmark scenarios.

Administration Module
Manage user right and access privileges. Conduct usage audits. Monitor and control data exchange with external systems. Implement master data management.

NASA Case Study/Application

NASA Earth Science REASoN (Research, Education and Applications Solution Network)
To assist in the development a border Spatial decision support system (BSDSS) for allocating and deploying resources to secure the U.S. Borders This technology integration will also enable agencies to assess environmental degradation and fire risk, and to prepare to mobilize for natural and bio-terrorist hazards.

Warehouse
Two data warehouses (one operational and one for emergency backup) to provide the gateway for accessing geospatial data and remote sensed imagery for various applications Each data warehouse will update their data automatically by communicating with each local database server through standardized communication protocol

Web Based Spatial DSS

Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) satellite data, Very high resolution (VHR) airborne imaging, Image registration and automated object detection routines Commercial satellite data, Web-based geographic information systems (GIS), Integrated global positioning system/personal data assistants, Ground-based sensors.

Users
The web-based SDSS used by decision makers and spatial analysts in command and control centers to collect and process information via a secure intranet or encrypted mobile wireless networks, to make decisions and initiate responses to field

CASE STUDIES

Indian Organized Retail Sector

4-5 % 0f retail market 13 % of GDP Expected to garner about 16-18% of retailing industry in next 5 years Valued at US $ 350 billion

Apparel Retail Sector

Characteristics
Fashion-led Seasonal Variations Store layout Minimal repetition

Raymond
Over 60 % market share in worsted suiting in India Diverse product range of nearly 20,000 design and colours of suiting fabric to suit every age, occasion and style Exports to over 50 countries Over 300 stores exclusive 'The Raymond Shop' (TRS) in India with 27 outlets overseas in the Middle East, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh Domestic distribution is spread far and wide with more than 30,000 outlets that stock and sell our wide range of fabrics.

POS software
Raymond Franchisee Manzony, Parx, Park Avenue and Color Plus Operational decisions
Stock reports Sale reports Billing Inventory CRM Database Loyalty card programmes

Benefits
Chances of error reduced to a very great extent due to integration Ease in accurate ordering as POS helps in forecasting Higher morale of the employees as many manual operations are redundant Quick turnaround as scanner feeds in the transaction and data base is updated in real time Less waiting time for billing with the use of scanner and error free billing Centralized Smooth integration with multiple vendors Visual merchandising function

Jade Blue
Multibrand Mens apparel local chain Fifteen brands like Arrow, Black berrys, Colorplus, Levis, Green Fibre etc are stocked Private label brand contributes to about 25% of the turnover

ERP
Inventory Management Ordering and Managing Logistics Promotions Addition of SKU Sales persons performance evaluation

Benefits
Efficiency in operations Superior coordination Enhanced profitability due to improved logistics Help in creating and sustain better and profitable relationships with customers Reduction in stock outs

Pantaloon
Multi brand apparel retail outlet Leewise, Lee, private label etc Private label brands contribute about 30% to the total turnover of the store Functional Area Types of DSS used Sales Forecasting SAP Category Management SAP Visual Merchandizing Security Check NA

IT/SW Tools

REM(Retail Enterprise Management)

CORAL DRAW PAGE MAKER AUTO CAD MS OFFICE

NA

Time taken to implement DSS

6 months

NA

NA

Problems
System integration problems Manpower problems
Training of employees Cataloguing Human mistakes

Benefits
Efficient operations/ impact on business processes, both internal and external Superior coordination Higher profits/greater profitability Diagnostic help in identifying problem areas High morale of employees Helps create and sustain better and profitable relationships with customers

Health Care

Clinical decision support system

Clinical decision support system (CDSS or CDS) is an interactive decision support system (DSS) Computer Software, which is designed to assist physicians and other health professionals with decision making tasks, as determining diagnosisof patient data. Features of a Knowledge-Based CDSS Most CDSS consist of three parts, the knowledge base, inference engine, and mechanism to communicate. The knowledge base contains the rules and associations of compiled data which most often take the form of IF-THEN rules. If this was a system for determining drug interactions, then a rule might be that IF drug X is taken AND drug Y is taken THEN alert user. Using another interface, an advanced user could edit the knowledge base to keep it up to date with new drugs. The inference engine combines the rules from the knowledge base with the patients data. The communication mechanism will allow the system to show the results to the user as well as have input into the system.

Features of a non-KnowledgeBased CDSS

CDSSs that do not use a knowledge base use a form of artificial intelligence called machine learning, which allow computers to learn from past experiences and/or find patterns in clinical data. Two types of non-knowledgebased systems are artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. Artificial neural networks use nodes and weighted connections between them to analyze the patterns found in the patient data to derive the associations between the symptoms and a diagnosis. However since the system cannot explain the reason it uses the data the way it does, most clinicians dont use them for reliability and accountability reasons. Genetic Algorithms are based on simplified evolutionary processes using directed selection to achieve optimal CDSS results. The solutions that come out on top are then recombined and mutated and run through the process again. This happens over and over till the proper solution is discovered. They are the same as neural networks in that they derive their knowledge from patient data. Non-knowledge-based networks often focus on a narrow list of symptoms like ones for a single disease as opposed to the knowledge based approach which cover many different diseases to diagnosis[

Technical Challenges & Barriers

Maintenance One of the core challenges facing CDSS is difficulty in incorporating the extensive quantity of clinical research being published on an ongoing basis. In a given year, tens of thousands of clinical trials are published In addition to being laborious, integration of new data can sometimes be difficult to quantify or incorporate into the existing decision support schema, particularly in instances where different clinical papers may appear conflicting

Evaluation In order for a CDSS to offer value, it must demonstrably improve clinical workflow or outcome. Evaluation of CDSS is the process of quantifying its value to improve a systems quality and measure its effectiveness. Because different CDSSs serve different purposes, there is no generic metric which applies to all such systems; however, attributes such as consistency (with itself, and with experts) often apply across a wide spectrum of systems. The evaluation benchmark for a CDSS depends on the systems goal: for example, a diagnostic decision support system may be rated based upon the consistency and accuracy of its classification of disease (as compared to physicians or other decision support systems). An evidence-based medicine system might be rated based upon a high incidence of patient improvement, or higher financial reimbursement for care providers.

Thank you