Statistics 111 - Lecture 9 Introduction to Inference

Sampling Distributions for Counts and Proportions

June 10, 2008

Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

Administrative Notes
Homework 3 is due on Monday, June 15th
Covers chapters 1-5 in textbook

Exam on Monday, June 15th Review session on Thursday

June 10, 2008

Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

Last Class
Focused on models for continuous data: using the sample mean as our estimate of population mean Sampling Distributionof the Sample Mean
how does the sample mean change over different samples? Sample 1 of size n Sample 2 of size n Sample 3 of size n Sample 4 of size n Sample 5 of size n Sample 6 of size n . . .
Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

Population
Parameter:

x x x x x x

Distribution of these values?

June 10, 2008

Todays Class
We will now focus on count data: categorical data that takes on only two different values Success (Yi = 1) or Failure (Yi = 0)

Goal is to estimate population proportion: p = proportion of Yi = 1 in population

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Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

Examples
Gender: our class has 83 women and 42 men What is proportion of women in Penn student population? Presidential Election: out of 2000 people sampled, 1150 will vote for McCain in upcoming election What proportion of total population will vote for McCain? Quality Control: Inspection of a sample of 100 microchips from a large shipment shows 10 failures What is proportion of failures in all shipments?
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Inference for Count Data

Goal for count data is to estimate the population proportion p From a sample of size n, we can calculate two statistics: 1. sample count Y 2. sample proportion = Y/n Use sample proportion as our estimate of population proportionp Sampling Distributionof the Sample Proportion how does sample proportion change over different samples? Sample 1 of size n Sample 2 of size n Sample 3 of size n Sample 4 of size n Sample 5 of size n Sample 6 of size n . . Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions . x x x x x x

Population
Parameter: p

Distribution of these values?

June 10, 2008

The Binomial Setting for Count Data

1. Fixed number n of observations (or trials)

2. Each observation is independent

3. Each observation falls into 1 of 2 categories:
1. Success (Y = 1) or Failure (Y = 0)

4. Each observation has the same probability of success: p = P(Y = 1)

June 10, 2008

Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

Binomial Distribution for Sample Count Sample count Y (number of Yi=1 in sample of size n) has a Binomial distribution The binomial distribution has two parameters:
number of trials n and population proportion p P(X=k) = nCk * pk (1-p)(n-k)

Binomial formula accounts for

number of success: pk number of failures : (1-p)n-k different orders of success/failures: nCk = n!/(k!(n-k)!)
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Binomial Probability Histogram

Can make histogram out of these probabilities

Can add up bars of histogram to get any probability we want: eg. P(Y < 4) Different values of n and p have different histograms, but Table C in book has probabilities for many values of n and p
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Binomial Table

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Example: Genetics
If a couple are both carriers of a certain disease, then their children each have probability 0.25 of being born with disease Suppose that the couple has 4 children P(none of their children have the disease)? P(X=0) = 4!/(0!*4!) * .250 * (1-.25)4 P(at least two children have the disease)?
P(Y 2) = P(Y = 2) +P(Y = 3) +P(Y = 4) = 0.2109 +0.0469 +0.0039 (from table) = 0.2617

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Example: Quality Control

A worker inspects a sample of n=20 microchips from a large shipment The probability of a microchip being faulty is 10% (p = 0.10) What is the probability that there are less than three failures in the sample?
P(Y < 3) = P(Y = 0) + P(Y =1) + P(Y = 2) = 0.1216 + 0.2702 + 0.2852 (from table) = 0.677

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Sample Proportions
Usually, we are more interested in a sample proportion = Y/n instead of a sample count P ( < k ) = P( Y < n*k) Example: a worker inspects a sample of 20 microchips from a large shipment with probability of a microchip being faulty is 0.1 What is the probability that our sample proportion of faulty chips is less than 0.05?

P(
June 10, 2008

< .05 ) = P( Y < 1) = P(Y=0) = .1216

Stat 111 - Lecture 9 - Proportions

0.05 x 20

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Mean and Variance of Binomial Counts

If our sample count Y is a random variable with a Binomial distribution, what is the mean and variance of Y across all samples?
Useful since we only observe the value of Y for our sample but what are the values in other samples?

We can calculate the mean and variance of a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p: Y = n*p 2 = n*p*(1-p) = (n*p*(1-p))
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Mean/Variance of Binomial Proportions

Sample proportion is a linear transformation of the sample count ( = Y/n ) = 1/n * mean(Y) = 1/n * np = p Mean of sample proportion is true probability of success p 2 = 1/n2 Var(Y) = 1/n2 * n*p*(1-p) = p(1-p)/n

Variance of sample proportion decreases as sample size n increases!

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Variance over Long-Run

Lower variance with larger sample size means that sample proportion will tend to be closer to population mean in larger samples Long-run behaviour of two different coin tossing runs. Much less likely to get unexpected events in larger samples

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Binomial Probabilities in Large Samples

In large samples, it is often tedious to calculate probabilities using the binomial distribution Example: Gallup poll for presidential election
Bush has 49% of vote in population. What is the probability that Bush gets a count over 550 in a sample of 1000 people?
P(Y > 550) = P(Y = 551) + P(Y = 552) + + P(Y =1000)

= 450 terms to look up in the table!

We can instead use the fact that for large samples, the Binomial distribution is closely approximated by the Normal distribution
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Normal Approximation to Binomial

If count Y follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p, then Y approximately follows a Normal distribution with mean and variance: Y = n*p This approximation is only good if n is large enough.
Rule of thumb for large enough:np 10 and n(1-p) 10

Also works for sample proportion: = Y/n a Normal distribution with mean and variance

follows

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Example: Quality Control

Sample of 100 microchips (with usual 10% of microchips are faulty. What is the probability there are at least 17 bad chips in our sample? Using Binomial calculation/table is tedious. Instead use Normal approximation:
Mean = np = 1000.10 = 10 Var = np(1-p) = 1000.100.90 = 9

= P(Z 2.33) =1- P(Z 2.33) = 0.01 (from table)

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Example: Gallup Poll

Bush has 49% of vote in population What is the probability that Bush gets sample proportion over 0.51 in sample of size 1000? Use normal distribution with
mean = p = 0.49 and variance p(1-p)/n = 0.000245

= P(Z 1.27) =1- P(Z 1.27) = 0.102

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Why does Normal Approximation work?

Central Limit Theorem: in large samples, the distribution of the sample mean is approx. Normal Well, our count data takes on two different values: Success (Yi = 1) or Failure (Yi = 0) The sample proportion is the same as the sample mean for count data!

So, Central Limit Theorem works for sample proportions as well!

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Next Class - Lecture 10

Review session on Wednesday/Thursday
Show up with questions!

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