Key Issue 4:

Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

Malthus on Overpopulation
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population. In it he argued that the worlds population was going to outgrow the food supply.

Malthuss Theory

Malthus Continued
Malthus said either people would have to use moral restraint to lower the CBR, or the CDR would have to rise due to famine or war. Neo-Malthusians: contemporary geographers are taking another look at Malthuss theories.

Malthuss Critics
Malthus based his theory on the belief that the worlds supply of resources was fixed, however it has expanded (with new technology!). The view goes against possiblism. Conditions in the past 50 years have not supported Malthuss theorythe population has grown, but food production has grown at a faster rate.

Declining Birth Rates

Despite our advances in agriculture, some regions do face shortages of food. Most people hope for further reductions in the NIR. The NIR can decline for only 2 reasons: -lower birth rates -higher death rates

Lower Birth Rates

Two strategies have been successful in reducing birth rates: -Economic Development -Distribution of Contraceptives

Economic Development
One approach is to emphasize improving local economic conditions. A wealthier community has more money to spend on education and health care programs. Why would that lower the CBR?

Distribution of Contraceptives
The other approach emphasizes the importance of rapidly diffusing modern contraceptive methods. A successful example would be Bangladesh. Some people are opposed to this for religious and political reasons, however.

World Health Threats

Lower CBRs have been responsible for declining NIRs in most countries. However, in some countries of subSaharan Africa, lower NIRs have also resulted from higher CDRs, especially due to the diffusion of AIDS.

AIDS in Africa

http://www.securethefuture.com/africa/images/afrmp2.gif

AIDS Continued
Worldwide, 20 million people have died of AIDS as of 2006 and 40 million are living with HIV. 95% of people living with HIV and 99% of new cases during the past 10 years are in PINGs.

AIDS Continued
Worldwide people with HIV in 2006: -25 million in sub-Saharan Africa -8 million in Asia -2 million in Eastern Europe -2 million in Latin America -1 million in Western Europe -1 million in Anglo-America

AIDS in the World

AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa

The impact of AIDS has been felt most strongly in sub-Saharan Africa. The populations of Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland are forecast to decline between now and 2050. Life expectancy in these 3 countries has declined from the mid-50s during the 1980s to the mid-30s now. Are they slipping backwards on the DTM?

So
Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?