October 2008

The Future of the City

Getting our minds around a sustainable built environment

tao
 WHAT IF… October 2008

… every neighborhood needed no outside energy

for heating & cooling, produced a significant share
of its electricity & fresh water, managed all of its
organic waste and sewage, produced significant
amounts of fresh foods, and was home to a
diversity of wild species that thrive in urban
habitat?

‘Eco
Blocks’
‘Eco
‘Super Blocks’ Blocks’
‘Eco
Blocks’
‘Eco
 WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT? October 2008

The greatest sustainability challenges are not

technological or economic. They are
institutional.
Dr. John Robinson
IPCC Lead Author; UBC

Myth
concern + best practice knowledge = action

Reality
concern + best practice + institutional capacity = action

Alex Boston
Holland Barrs Planning Group
 THE THREE BIG LEVERS October 2008

Strong, forward-looking policies

• Energy & climate change
• Sustainable buildings & communities
• Land use & transportation - neighborhood & urban
• Economic inclusion & participation
• Housing affordability
• World-class education & training

Engage community, connect collaborative networks

• Center of excellence - collaboration
• Business networks
• Community engagement - social marketing linked to values

Mobilize new investment resources

• Public finance - innovation & leverage
• Private - access to patient capital
Building Sustainable Communities October 2008

From Green Buildings to

Sustainable Communities
GREEN BUILDINGS October 2008
BUILDING TO NEIGHBOURHOOD October 2008
 CITIES & CLIMATE October 2008

“Cities are where the rubber meets the

pavement on climate change.”
Stephen King
Manager, Strategic Resource Management
Halifax Regional Municipality
 WHAT ARE WE DOING? October 2008

2006 - Time to get serious

World will end in 2 to 3 generations, 72 per cent of
British Columbians fear, Vancouver Sun, Nov. 18th,
2006
Daddy, did you do everything you could to stop
climate change?, Vancouver Sun, 2006

Nation Under Siege

Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep
 NEW DIRECTIONS October 2008

• Prevention & mitigation

– Shift from 2012 to 2030/2050 goals
– Ultimate goal of carbon neutral city
• Infrastructure - adaptation & resilience
– Storms, surges, rising sea levels
– Integrity of water & food systems
POST-KYOTO ESSENTIALS October 2008

Climate protection in cities

carbon neutral zero carbon

buildings transportation

complete, compact
communities
 PATH TO CARBON NEUTRAL CITY October 2008

Buildings
– 2030 Challenge [architecture2030.org]
– thermal grid & building retrofits
Transportation
– active transportation
– electrification of urban mobility
Urban agriculture
– set aggressive production target
– transform public realm
Zero waste
– neighborhood-scale systems
Social enterprise for food and zero waste
 CARBON NEUTRAL BUILDINGS October 2008

Existing buildings Comm/Inst/Ind Regulatory

Residential - low Incentives

Carbon neutral buildings
Residential - high Financing tools

GHG emission mgmt

New buildings Comm/Inst/Ind Regulatory

Residential - low Incentives

Residential - high Financing tools

GHG emission mgmt

District energy Existing thermal infra

New, high density

New, low density

 CARBON NEUTRAL TRANSPORTATION October 2008

Neighborhood-scale Compact, complete neighborhoods

Maximum active modes

Zero carbon transportation
Ultra-efficiency flexible vehicles

Mobility infrastructure

Daily services mapping

City-scale N’hood-N’hood connections

Smart arterial network

Smart delivery & logistics services

Urban clean fuels program

Vehicle efficiency standards

Regional-scale Institutional reform

50% of freeway lanes to light rail

Car, parking stall taxes to finance transit

Building Sustainable Communities October 2008

Evolution of Scale
HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008

U.S. mid-range abatement curve Ð 2030 Abatement

cost <$50/ton
Cost Commercial Residential
Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2e Afforestation buildings Ð buildings Ð
of cropland HVAC HVAC
equipment equipment
90 Coal power plantsÐ
efficiency efficiency
CCS rebuilds with EOR
Industrial
Residential
Fuel economy process Coal mining Ð Solar CSP
buildings Ð Active forest Distributed
packages Ð Light improve- Methane management
Shell solar PV
60 trucks ments mgmt
retrofits
Residential
electronics Commercial Commercial Nuclear
buildings Ð Residential
buildings Ð new-
Combined water
Control build
30 Residential heat and heaters
systems
buildings Ð power
Lighting

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

Onshore wind Ð
-30 Onshore wind Ð Industry Ð
Low penetration
High penetration CCS new
Industry Ð
builds on
Combined
carbon-
heat and Biomass power Ð intensive
-60 power Cofiring processes
Cellulosic
Manufacturing Ð
biofuels Existing power Car hybridi-
HFCs mgmt Coal power plants Ð CCS
plant zation
-90 Residential new builds with EOR
conversion
buildings Ð efficiency Onshore wind Ð Medium
New shell improvements Coal-to-gas
Commercial penetration
improvements shift Ð dispatch of
electronics Conservation
-120 Winter existing plants
tillage
Commercial cover crops
buildings Ð Coal power plants Ð
CFL lighting Reforestation CCS rebuilds
-220 Commercial
buildings Ð Commercial
LED lighting buildings Ð Afforestation of
Natural gas Coal power
New shell pastureland
and petroleum plants Ð CCS
Fuel economy improvements
systems new builds
packages Ð Cars
management

Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, Executive Report, McKinsey & Company, December 2007
INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008
U.S. mid-range abatement curve Ð 2030
Commercial Residential
Cost buildings Ð buildings Ð
HVAC HVAC
equipment equipment
90 efficiency
efficiency
Residential
buildings Ð Distributed Solar CSP
Shell solar PV
60
retrofits
Commercial Commercial
buildings Ð Residential
buildings Ð
Combined water
Control
30 Residential heat and heaters
systems
buildings Ð power
Lighting

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

-30 Industry Ð
CCS new
Industry Ð
builds on
Combined
carbon-
heat and Biomass power Ð intensive
-60 power Cofiring processes

-90 Residential
buildings Ð
New shell
improvements
-120

-220 Commercial
buildings Ð Commercial
LED lighting buildings Ð
New shell
improvements

Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, Executive Report, McKinsey & Company, December 2007
INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008

U.S. mid-range abatement curve Ð 2030

Cost

90

60

30

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

-30

-60

-90

Comprehensive Building Energy

-120
and Efficiency Package

-220

Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost? , Executive Report, McKinsey & Company, December 2007
 10 - 4 GOOD BUDDY! October 2008

What if Portland had a 20-year strategy to do energy

efficiency retrofits & install clean, distribution energy
technology, district by district, and had $2 Billion
available to invest?
 HOW TO DO MORE, FASTER? October 2008

Critical role of cities

Create scale
Accelerate & deepen actions
New tools to bridge finance gap
Enable through rate regulation
Tie to better performance
Reduce revenue risk
Regional economic development
Connect to other policy goals
 AGGRESSIVE ACTION October 2008

Comprehensive Package
– Efficiency retrofits
– Distributed generation
– District infrastructure

Think like an investor

– ESCOs - work at scale, with financing
– Go deeper, use patient capital & policies
– Everything that can be done ~ ROI: 5% on 20 years
 10 - 4 GOOD BUDDY! October 2008

10,000 buildings per year over 20 years

$125,000,000 investment every year
Economic benefits
– $500,000,000 (based on relative multiplier impacts)
– Ten-fold increase in efficiency activity, rapid escalation of
distributed systems
– Job creation substantial - 1,500 minimum per year
– Targeted business development & investment attraction
 INVESTING IN A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY October 2008

Who are the investors?

• Public sector
– City bond finance tools, infrastructure orientation
– State & Federal infrastructure incentive programs
– Green jobs & workforce development programs

• Private sector
– Patient capital - long-term, risk averse, modest returns
– Utility-grade investments
– Pension funds, mission-driven investment
– Early-stage, angel & venture capital
 WHAT IS IT, REALLY? October 2008

Ecosystem services ++

Shelter
Food & water
Mobility
Respect
Comfort
Connection
Interaction
Feedback

What does it mean to go ‘native’? ~ William

 NEW CHALLENGE October 2008

A central question for cities in the 21st Century

relates to getting to the smallest scale possible for
achieving each element of the ‘ecosystem services
++’

Economical
Adaptable

=
Resilient Sustainable
Engaged Community
Self-generating Development
Innovative
Nimble
 WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT? October 2008

Is Local Government designed to match our vision?

 WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? October 2008

Economical
Adaptable Why
Why Some
Some Companies
Make
Make the
And
Companies
the Leap
And Others
Leap …
…
Others Don’t
Don’t

Resilient GO O D TO
G R E A T
Engaged
Self-generating Jim
Collins
Innovative
Nimble

The next generation of local government needs to

provide scale-appropriate ‘ecosystem services
++’
Create a culture for:

Respect
Learning
Adaptation and change
Performance
 ENGAGING PEOPLE October 2008

Our challenges require a level of change that demands that

we engage people in order to start making changes

Need to offer a positive vision of where we are headed,

without getting tied into having all the answers
 WHY A PRECINCT? October 2008

Focus on Cities
Cities need living laboratories to help
address emerging challenges
A platform for greater innovation in
the future
Invaluable complement to emerging
proposals

Sustainability Destination
Cities can borrow what works here
Proof of concept
“Destination” for sustainability - region is
already becoming one
A place for learning
 STRATEGY FOR OUR ECONOMY October 2008

Portland & Multnomah County

Sustainable Development Commission

PDX: The World’s Sustainability Center

A blueprint for global leadership in sustainable economic

development
Overarching message
• Think beyond exports
• Clearly articulate an audacious vision
• Dedicate appropriate resources

Key directions
• Tap into emerging global demand
• Foster regional collaboration
• Grow local foundation for
innovation
VISION October 2008

A Sustainable Economy
Inclusive, Regenerative, Innovative

Green Development Cluster

PDX Lounge & business network
Oregon BEST
Portland Plan and economic development strategy
Oregon Business Plan
Cascadia GBC – Living Building Challenge, Pharos
Natural Capital Center, Living Building Center
Oregon University System – Sustainability Learning
Center
Portland State – Integrator, First Stop Portland,
Incubator
Ecosystem Services Council
Portland BEST Business Center
Oregon Innovation Council
WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT? October 2008
 STRATEGY FOR OUR ECONOMY October 2008

Renewable energy Biofuels

Clean power tech

Sustainable economic development
Efficiency tools

District energy

Green buildings & development Design & engineering

Materials, systems

Construction management

Food systems & urban agriculture Rural & urban production

Processing & prep

Composing, soil mgmt

Water conservation, efficiency, reuse Technology & systems

Management tools
 ENGAGING PEOPLE October 2008

How do we spend our money?

 WHAT IF… October 2008

Every neighborhood needed no outside energy for

heating & cooling, produced a significant share of
its electricity & fresh water, managed all of its
organic waste and sewage, produced significant
amounts of fresh foods, and was home to a
diversity of wild species that thrive in urban
habitat?
 WHAT IF… October 2008

Every neighborhood had master gardeners &

community kitchens where people produced
healthy meals, taught people how to grow, cook &
store food, and managed every scrap of food
waste?
 WHAT IF… October 2008

There were no streets on the borders of schools,

but rather areas for walking, biking, skateboarding,
skating and little red wagons?
 WHAT IF… October 2008

The city had its own inexpensive, modular and

moveable temporary housing units that could
ensure every person had shelter and safety?
 WHAT IF … October 2008

Private property owners could reduce their property

taxes by half or more by:

• Leasing yard space for neighborhood food growing?

• Producing more energy & water than they need?
• Contributing to neighborhood affordable housing &
mentoring services?
• Actively participating in neighborhood barter
programs?
 WHAT IF… October 2008

Neighborhoods had the ability to retire some of their

streets?
HERE’S TO THE FUTURE! October 2008

Thanks very much!!

tao strategies

Tom Osdoba
tomosdoba@mac.com
503.883.1529