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THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS AND DECISION MAKERS
If
WHY REAL ESTATE LOOKS ATTRACTIVE: THREE SIMPLE QUESTIONS Where would the DOW be if the Fed didnt constantly threaten additional QE? Where would bond values be if the Fed didnt constantly threaten additional QE? Where would gold be if the Fed didnt constantly threatened additional QE?
Aug-12 Feb-12 Aug-11 Feb-11 Aug-10 Feb-10 Aug-09 Feb-09 Aug-08 Feb-08 Aug-07 Feb-07 Aug-06 Feb-06 Aug-05 Feb-05 Aug-04 Feb-04 Aug-03 Feb-03 Aug-02 Feb-02 Aug-01 Feb-01 Aug-00 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30
Source: The Conference Board
7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Amazon had $12.8 billion sales in recent quarter. Translates to $51.2 billion in sales per year. If retail store sales are $400 per square foot. Then Amazon has replaced 128 million square feet. This could be about 128 regional malls.
CORPORATE PROFITS
(WITH INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT & CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT)
$600
$400 $200 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Net % of Respondents
15 10 5 0 -5
-10
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Less Jobs
20%
16%
24%
24%
INFLATION OUTLOOK
MONEY SUPPLY AND VELOCITY: HUGE MONETARY BASE COULD FUEL INFLATION