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Introduction to the topic Event tree formulation Risk calculation and the index of robustness Application of the framework Modeling of the system exposures Modeling of the system vulnerability Modeling of the system robustness Results Conclusions
INTRODUCTION
Structural robustness is defined by the structures ability to withstand any unforeseen loading as well as initiating damage scenarios without a disproportionate response. More specifically, a robust structure has the ability to redistribute load in the event that a loadbearing member suffers a loss of strength or stiffness, and characteristically exhibits ductile rather than brittle global failure modes. Eurocode 1 describes robustness as: the ability of a structure to withstand events like fire, explosions, impact or the consequences of human error without being damaged to an extent disproportionate to the original cause.
INTRODUCTION
A New risk framework was developed which differentiates between damage states and failure states in the systems. The consequences model differentiates between: Direct consequences Indirect consequences (follow-up consequences) Eurocode 2 specifies the requirement for structural robustness as the consequences of structural failure should not be disproportional to the effect causing the failure. Assesing the robustness of structures considers accidental exposures, such as impact, explosion or fire. Some of the exposures can be accounted in the design procedures directly but for others it is not practical.
According to the generic risk assessment a system can be represented as a spatial and temporal representation of all constituents required to describe the interrelations between all relevant exposures and their consequences.
Without system failure
Damaged
Direct consequence s
Failure
The total risk is defined as the expected value of the total consequences in a given time period. Direct risk formula:
Total risk is a sum of the direct and indirect risks. Index of robustness formula:
Introduced framework is applied to a general type of post-tensioned box girder bridge typical for roadways in german. Bridge consistns of six spans 40-50m lengths 16 tendons in top flange, 8 in the bottom flange Concrete class: C30/35 (according to EC 2)
The considered load cases in the design are: Dead Loads Traffic Loads Temperature loads Loads due to post-tensioning
The bridge is designed according to Eurocodes for the ULS and SLS, as well as for decompression aiming at un-cracked concreteduring bridge lifetime (100 years).
The Eurocode requires minimum structural reinforcement to prevent a brittle failure and to ensure ductility.
Dead loads follow the Gaussian distribution with a coefficient of variation of 0.1. Live loads are modeled probabilistically. Creep and shrinkage are modeled according to nonlinear effects. Stress losses due to relaxation follow the Gaussian distribution with a coefficient of 0.3.
The process of the chloride through the concrete cover to the reinforcement is modeled according to Ficks law. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to determine the probability of propagation at t0.
Stress corrosion cracking under high tensioning stresses is significantly The highest tensile stresses occur in flange of the box girder, so only 16 tendons are affected to stress cracking in the considered structure.
A wire is considered that has failed when half of its diameter is corroded. A strand is considered failed if four of its wires have failed.
For the probabilistic modeling of the structural system each material resistance has to be represented with its density function.
Presented corrosion exposures are assumed to act simultaneously and independently from each other.
Probability for a corrosive environment is dependent on the location. Effects due to creep and shrinkage are considered and exposures due to loads are applied.
For the corrosion exposure random values are selected to calculate its probability.
Effects due to creep and shrinkage and exposure due to loads are considered All random variables related to the applied material resistances simultaneously.
Indirect consequences Damage states are integrated by using calculated loss of post-tensioning wires and the corroded reinforcement area. Direct consequences
o The expected value of the total direct consequences for planning, traffic organization, safety measures and repair maintenance costs sum up to 1,203,800 EUR.
For the risk based analysis the specific probabilities of failure depending on the considered damage states at any given time are calculated. For this analysis limit state function is formulated for the cross section at a location just above the secon support.
Failure state is reached if the internal moment due to exposures exceeds the internal moment of the resistance.
Model uncertainties are approximated by a lognormal distibuted random variable with a mean value of l and CoV of 0.2. The indirect consequences are defined as all consequences beyond the direct consequences which are associated with the failure state.
Taking into account all failure modes where evacuation action could be performed, the expected number of fatalities given failure in this example is estimated to 2.62
2.4 RESULTS
Result of the Monte Carlo Simulation for the annual probability of failure
Insignificant increment. Due to chloride corrosion.
At the end of design lifetime 102 of 196 wires of the internal post-tensioning tendons in the top flange are ruptured and approx. 23% of the reinforcement is corroded.
2.4 RESULTS
Based on calculations of the probability of failure under consideration of the different damage states and the direct and indirect consequences, index of robustness can be calculated.
Significant influence of post tensioning wire losses.
Coefficient of reliability indicates that the damages states and system effects contribute to total risk.
CONCLUSIONS
The damage of the internal tendons have a large influence on the failure probability and on the robustness of the system. By changing post tensioning system the corrosion effects can be minimized and robustness improved. The robustness decreases rapidly if the conditional probability of failure increases in the system. To reduce this measure could be aimed to reduce the indirect consequences. The index of robustness is more a characteristic of the system than of the structure.
REFERENCES
ROBUSTNESS OF EXTERNALLY AND INTERNALLY POSTTENSIONED BRIDGES, BERNARD VON RADOWITZ, MATTHIAS SCHUBERT AND MICHAEL HAVBRO FABER. BETON- UND STAHLBETONBAU ROBUSTNESS AND SAFETY OF CONCRETE STRUCTURES, 2008.