WEATHER

FORECASTING
Group 3| Ms. Charmaine Frago | 1st Year – St.
Angela
WEATHER FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES
• Conditioning
• Barometric Reading
• Sky Conditions
• Now casting
• Forecast modelling
– Analog
– Ensemble
CONCLUSION
TECHNIQUES - CONDITIONING
• Relies on current or present conditions to
determine future weather conditions.
• Validity is dependent only on a steady
state (i.e. tropical countries)
• Highly dependent on a stagnant weather
pattern (i.e. Wet and Dry Seasons).
TECHNIQUES – BAROMETRIC
READING
• Monitors change in atmospheric pressure
• Based on the concept of “changes in
atmospheric pressure reflects weather
changes”
• High variances in atmospheric pressure is
reflective of the scope of changes in
weather.
• Technique is more accurate in predicting
weather patterns than Conditioning or
relying in present weather conditions.
TECHNIQUES – SKY
CONDITIONS
• Utilizing present sky conditions to
forecast weather changes.
• This also relies on using sky color
changes. (i.e. Blue = fair weather
conditions, Grey = storm or high-wind
conditions).
• Presence of clouds are indicative of
weather conditions. (i.e. Clear sky = fair
weather, Cloudy = rain)
TECHNIQUES - NOWCASTING
• Reliable for contain time forecasting (6
hour blocks).
• Utilizes a combination of previous
techniques to determine weather
conditions within a certain time block.
• Example would be cloudy skies would
indicate rain showers within the next few
hours but not indicative of weather
conditions after 24 hours.
FORECASTING MODELS
• Analog
– Utilizing current data to determine patterns
on weather changes.
– Not fully reliable as data is static while
weather patterns are dynamic in nature.
• Ensemble
– Math based forecasting technique utilizing
the Chaos Theory
– Is fully able to generate multiple forecasting
or condition scenarios of weather patterns for
deduction.
– Can be adapted to fully reflect dynamic
CONCLUSION
• There is no single way to perform
weather forecasting
• Each technique would be applicable for
certain conditions
• Each technique has limitations which
would make it unusable in certain
conditions
• Each technique would compliment
another for a more accurate result in
forecasting weather.
CHAOS THEORY
• Mathematical representation to describe
the behavior of dynamic systems (i.e.
weather, human behavior)
• Applied to systems or patterns which
evolve over time – improvement or de-
evolution.
• Application is relative to the concept that
future dynamics are defined by initial
conditions.
 Group 3
• Angela Denise P. Salas
• Yvanne Cabacugan
• Matthew Villanueva