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SIMULATION MODEL OF ENTRANCE TO FOOTBALL STADIUM LODGES

Prepared by: Beyza Barlas Ceren Erkutay Ebru Erolu

Submitted to: Yrd.Doc.Dr.Dilek Tzn Aksu


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OUTLINE

System Definition Problem Definition Data Analysis Conceptual Model Arena Model Verification Validation Alternative Arena Model 1 Alternative Arena Model 2 Comparison Cost Analysis
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SYSTEM DEFINITION
In our system, there are 3 types of entities:

Lodge owners(have benefits of special services.) Spectators at 100s blocks(dont have benefits of special services.)

Lodge servers(attach wristbands to lodge owners.)


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PROBLEM DEFINITION
When 100s blocks spectators and lodge owners come to the same entrance of the stadium,lodge servers attach wristbands in order to seperate lodge owners and spectators. Servers are positioned irregularly. Servers are not utilized equally.Also,number of servers are more than required. It causes chaos and disorganisation.
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INTERARRIVAL TIME FIT

Corresponding p-value : 0.324 > 0.05 so interarival time datas are fitted.

SERVICE TIME FIT

Corresponding p-value : 0.613 > 0.05 so service time datas are fitted.

DELAY TIME FIT

Corresponding p-value : 0.0987 > 0.05 so delay time datas are fitted.

CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Lodg e spectato owne r r
Server 1

Lodge owner
Lodge owner
spectator

Lodge owner
Server 2

Lodge owner

Server 3

Server 4
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ARENA MODEL

VERIFICATION

Verification is building the model correctly. We run the real system in Arena without any error.

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VALIDATION
Hypothesis Test: Performance measure: utilization Compare the utilization of the model with the actual utilization. Null hypothesis testing : evaluate whether the simulation and the real system are the same.

H0 : E(X)=0.1226 H1 : E(X)0.1226

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Replicatio n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

X=Average utilization 0,1355 0,1129 0,1269 0,1396 0,1201 0,1253 0,1267 0,1202 0,122 0,1203 0,1311 0,1249 0,1104 0,1416 0,1356

Replicatio n 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

X=Average utilization 0,08942 0,1154 0,1297 0,114 0,1259 0,1224 0,1266 0,1241 0,1197 0,1192 0,1257 0,1253 0,12 0,1355 0,1174

Sample Mean: 0,123447

Standard Deviation:

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T-TEST

=0.05

Hence, do not reject H0 . Conclude that the model is adequate.

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CONFIDENCE INTERVAL TESTING

Confidence interval testing: evaluate whether the simulation and the real system are close enough.

C.I.=(0.119731 , 0.127164 ) = 0.01226

The worst case error is , accept the model.


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SAMPLE SIZE

Therefore: H>

= 0.015

2 12.71

3 4.30

4 3.18

5 2.78 3.4206

71.4996 8.183697 4.475761

R=5 > 3.4206 At least 5 replications are needed.

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ALTERNATIVE MODEL 1

The number of servers is decreased in order to increase the utilization of servers.

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COMPARISON OF MODEL & ALTERNATIVE 1


Assumption:Independent sampling which is unequal variance

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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 1

C.I. does not include zero.There is a significant statistical difference between the real model & alternative 1.

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CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ALTERNATIVE 2


Lodg e owne r Lodg e owne r Lodg e owne r Lodg e owne r

TOLL GATE TOLL GATE

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ALTERNATIVE MODEL 2

Two toll gates are put instead of servers Lodge owners and 100s block spectators are lead into the stad from two different gates in order to decrease waiting times
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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 2
Assumption:Independent sampling which is unequal variance

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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 2

C.I. does not include zero.There is a significant statistical difference between the real model & alternative 2.

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COST ANALYSIS
COST SERVERx5 TOLL GATEx2 300 TL/match 1380 TOTAL COST(Annual) 5100 TL ~ 4000TL(include maintenance cost)

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