Population

Preview
First week:
Growth- economic growth GDP-the components of GDP GDP and Development GDP and Employment (Unemployment) The concepts of Mean, Median and Mode in relation to macroeconomic concepts introduced. How to use figures to support your arguments

Preview
Second week:
The concept of Balance of Payment Focus: Current Account
Balance on good and services, Balance on goods, services and income, Overall Current Account

Importance of relative values (such as CA/GDP) Standard Deviation, Range

Preview
Third Week
Capital Flows Central Bank Reserves The relationship between capital flows and reserves Causality in economics The concept of correlation Here, show how to find the relevant data Data-Periodic Data-Balance of Payment

Preview
Fourth Week: Income distribution GDP per capita Quantiles-Turkish data

What will we cover today?

Population dynamics Using mean median and skewness Kurtosis Chebyshev's rule- a relationship between mean and standard deviation

Total Turkish population?

Total Turkish Population

80000000 73639596 70000000 60000000

50000000
40000000 30000000 20000000 10000000 0

49399630

Total Turkish Population

28160579

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Population Growth?
(Population(t+1)-Population(t))/Population (t)

0.5 1 2

1.5

2.5

0 Population Growth 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1.21220059

Is Turkish population growth very low?

A comparison
Population Comparisons 4.5 4

3.5
3 % 2.5 2
Turkey Argentina Brazil Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep.

1.5
1 0.5 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Developed Countries Versus Turkey

Turkish Population Growth versus Developed Countries 3 2.5 2 1.5
Turkey

1 0.5

France Germany

0 1963 1996
1960 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1999 2002 2005 2008 -0.5 -1 2011

Sub Saharan Africa versus Turkey

4.5

4
3.5 3 2.5 % 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels) Turkey

Zambia

1972

1960

1964

1968

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Can we make generalizations?

Turkey versus Income Categories

3.5
3 2.5 2

Turkey High income

Least developed countries: UN classification Low & middle income Lower middle income Middle income

Upper middle income

1.5
1 0.5 0
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

So?
What do you think about the determinants of population growth ?

 GDP growth can be related to population growth, productivity, technological developments However, the least important factor in GDP growth is population growth.. In fact, if population growth is higher than GDP growth, GDP per capita decreases! However, negative population growth may create some problems as well.

Age Charechteristics of the Turkish Population 2011

80 70

60
50 40 30 20 10 0
Population ages 0-14 (% of total) Population ages 15-64 (% of total) Population ages 65 and above (% of total)

What can you say about the mean, median, skewness of the figure?
Skeewness?

 Rightward skewed (there is a long tail on the right), positive skewed

In general, if the distribution of data is skewed to the right, the mean is greater than the median vice versa because there are more people on the left.

The Age Structure of the Turkish Population 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population ages 15-64 (% of total) Population ages 0-14 (% of total)

Population ages 65 and above (% of total)

Dream Land People- Name Ali Veli Huseyin Deniz Toprak Demir Egecan Zehra Elif Mustafa Sevgi Piraye Cansu Serkan Asl Kerem Nazl Serap Esra Nesim

Age 72 66 41 29 5 12 14 43 30 28 16 3 13 9 18 46 22 52 34 25

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 Piraye Toprak Serkan Demir Cansu Egecan Sevgi Asl

Nazl Nesim Mustafa Deniz

Elif Esra Huseyin Zehra Kerem Serap Veli Ali

Can This Figure be Useful ?

Dream-Land Age Structure

Dream-Land Age Structure

Histogram of the Dream-Land Population

14
12 10 Frequency 8 6

4
2 0 0-14 15-64 Interval 65-

What can we say about the age structure of Dream Land People

Reading the Histogram

They have a relatively young population There are only a few old people The majority of the populations age lies within the interval from 15-64 The histogram diagram is rightward skewed (skewness statistics is positive and high) The mean is higher than the median (this is also a charechteristics of rightward skewed data)-It means that there are more people on the left There are outliers (the range is relatively high)

Histogram of the Dream-Land Population

14 12 10 Frequency 8 6 4 2

0 0-14 15-64 Interval 65-

Chebyshevs Theorem

The Relationship between the Mean and Standard Deviation ?

Any idea?

The Relationship between the Mean and Standard Deviation ?

Any idea? We know that, in a very crude vay, the standard deviation is a measure indicating how far observations move from the mean Remember Variance: 2 = ( 2 )/N =1

Standard Deviation: = 2

The Relationship between the Mean and Standard Deviation ?

There is another relationship between standard deviation and mean- Chebyshevs Theorem 1-At least three quarters of the observations in a set will lie within 2 stadard deviations of the mean. 2-At least eight-ninths of the observations in a set will lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean Formally, 1 1/ 2 will lie within k standard deviations of the mean

Emprical Expression of the Chebyshevs Theorem

If the histogram of the data is more or less symetric with a single mode -then the tighter rule applies 1-Approximately 68 percent of the observations wil be within 1 standard deviation of the mean 2. Approximately 95 percent of the observations will be within 2 standard deviations of the mean 3. All or almost all observations will lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean.

Application of Chebyshevs theorme to the dremland population

Our data set does not look like symetric. Therefore, the first set of rules applies instead of the second set of tighter rules.

Remember, mean: 28.8, standard deviation:18.8

Application of Chebyshev's Theorem Interval Interval

At least three quarters of the observations in a set Meanwill lie within 2 stadard 2*StdDev_ deviations of the mean. __Mean-

Relative Frequency Frequency (%)

2*SdDev
At least eight-ninths of the observations in a set Meanwill lie within 3 standard 3*StdDev_ deviations of the mean

-9-66

19

95

___Mean+ -27-95 3*SdDev

20

100

Announcement
There will be No class next week Last class: Friday at 17:40-how to lie with statistics Second midterm January 4, 2013 Final assignment due date is January 15, 2012