Problem Solving & Decision Making

CONTENTS
1) Background to Problem Solving 2) Setting the Problem Statement 3) Analyze the Problem in Detail 4) Identify Likely Causes 5) Define Actual Causes

(1)

Background to Problem Solving

What is PAID?
A logical problem solving process can be done through some steps called "PAID"

Problem Statement Analyze the problem in detail Identify likely causes Define actual cause(s)

 Problems exist when someone or something is not performing as expected. Action needs to be taken to solve the problem thus action should follow from a clear understanding of the problem. To understand problem solving it is necessary to distinguish between symptoms of a problem and its causes.

 Identification of the cause of a problem is the key to problem solving. Once you know the real cause of the problem, you can decide how to deal with it

Causes and Symptoms of a Problem

It is necessary to distinguish between the symptoms of a problem and its causes. What is the best indication that a problem can be solved?
The symptoms of the problem have been treated? OR The cause of the problem has been isolated?

Sure symptoms treatment not a solution but once you have found the real cause of a problem you can decide how to deal with it.

Diagram of a Problem
To help understand what we are looking for when finding the cause of a problem, it is worthwhile looking at a problem diagrammatically.
Look at the diagram on the right. It shows performance over time. In this case it is constant, but is there a problem?
Performance
Actual Performance
Expected Performance

T I M E

 The area with the positive variance is called Opportunity" An opportunity is the exact opposite of a problem. They can be analyzed in the same way as problems. You want to find out what caused an opportunity to happen that you can exploit it to the full or make it happen elsewhere.
Positive Variance Opportunity

Performance

Actual Performance

Expected Performance Actual Performance

Negative Variance Problem

T I M E

 Problems don't occur without a reason. In any situation with a problem, there must be an historical point. When actual performance started to deviate. Something happened at the time x which caused the problem to occur.
Positive Variance Opportunity Expected Performance

Performance

X
Actual Performance

Negative Variance ProblemX

T I M E

Avoiding Pitfalls
(A) Giving up too early (B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the cause (C) Not getting the right people involved (D) Not collecting all the relevant data The worst one is B " because. It is always very tempting to think you know the cause of a problem straight away, jump to conclusions and take action to solve it.

(2)

Setting the Problem Statement

Describe the problem Develop a one sentence problem statement

Describe the Problem

The purpose of describing the problem is to create an impressionistic view of it - something on which to lay a solid foundation for further work. Choose what you would do first from this list:
A. Write down a list of possible causes B. Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a structured picture of the problem C. Write down everything you know about the problem D. Interview the people you think are to blame for the problem

Describe the Problem

The purpose of describing the problem is to create an impressionistic view of it - something on which to lay a solid foundation for further work. Choose what you would do first from this list:
A. Write down a list of possible causes B. Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a structured picture of the problem C. Write down everything you know about the problem D. Interview the people you think are to blame for the problem

Brainstorming
Creative thinking techniques have a potentially powerful role in the PAID process. They are a very good starting point when you have a blank piece of paper. They can help you get insights into the nature of the problem that purely analytical techniques couldn't. many people broadly know what it means, but don't do it properly. Even though it's a creative thinking technique it has several rules which must be followed to make it work.

Brainstorming
See if you can identify what we can use brainstorming for as part of sorting out a statement of the problem.
To generate as many ideas as possible about:
A. The overall nature of the problem B. The actions to be taken to solve the problem C. Possible causes of the problem D. Specific aspects of the problem

Brainstorming
See if you can identify what we can use brainstorming for as part of sorting out a statement of the problem.
To generate as many ideas as possible about:
A. The overall nature of the problem B. The actions to be taken to solve the problem C. Possible causes of the problem D. Specific aspects of the problem

Brainstorming
You are the leader of a brainstorm session looking at a customer service problem.
A member of the group gives an idea you know is completely irrelevant. What should you do?
A. Write down the idea as stated B. Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that down C. Ignore the idea completely D. Ask members of the group whether they think the idea is relevant

Brainstorming
You are the leader of a brainstorm session looking at a customer service problem.
A member of the group gives an idea you know is completely irrelevant. What should you do?
A. Write down the idea as stated B. Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that down C. Ignore the idea completely D. Ask members of the group whether they think the idea is relevant

Setting the Problem Statement

A problem statement is a single sentence which embraces your understanding of the problem.
Not the cause of the problem, but the problem itself.

Setting the problem statement is the single most important action you will take in the whole problem solving process. It is so important that you must be prepared to put in time and effort to get it right.

Setting the Problem Statement

But why is setting the problem statement so important? Several potential reasons are given below
1. Get the problem statement wrong and you will search in the wrong areas for the problem's cause. 2. A clear problem statement enables you to decide what work must be completed to find the cause. 3. Keeping the problem statement visible during the search for the cause keeps effort focused in the right area.

The problem statement provides the context within which all further work takes place.

Effective Problem Statements

Ideally a problem statement should be;
A single sentence. Precise. Understandable to a person with no knowledge of the problem area. Neutral. Based on the description of the problem.

The Completed First Stage

When you have completed the first stage of the PAID problem solving process you will have: A description of the problem. This will probably contain things like:
1. 2. 3. 4. Your notes on how you see the problem Notes of conversations with other people involved Examples of how the problem manifests itself Any available statistics which showed you have a problem

You will then sort out all this information to produce:

The Problem Statement

A one sentence statement which incorporates your understanding of the problem

(3)

Analyze the Problem in Detail

Problem Solving Techniques

Problem solving techniques can be classified as following: Paradigm Preserving Techniques; Are utilized in situations that dont require the use of a broad imagination, relatively easy to use and can be managed by teams that are not experienced or less developed. e.g. Brainstorming and Assumption Articulation. Paradigm Stretching Techniques; Require participants to develop new perspectives about the problem through creative thinking. e.g. Reverse thinking and Six Thinking Hats technique Paradigm Breaking Techniques; The boundaries of the problem are completely busted, so the ideas obtained using these techniques are the most fresh and innovative but the process can be uncomfortable for no trained and experienced users.

The Role of Questions

Asking questions is the key to analyzing problems. A systematic approach to questioning ensures you don't miss any important areas. If you don't ask the right questions, you can't possibly get the right answers. The best questions nearly always start with: What? Why? When? Who? Where? How much? Because such questions cannot be answered with a single word, but require some form of comment

Analyzing the Problem

Here are some what questions you might find handy when attempting to solve a problem.
Questioning Tool Box What is wrong? What did you do about it? What was the result? What happened next? What was their reaction? What are the symptoms? What are their effects? What did you notice first?

The list isn't exhaustive, but should be enough to give you a clue how to go about using them.

Analyzing the Problem

"When" questions aim to pinpoint exactly when the symptoms began to appear. In other words you are trying to track down the point x in time. So the key question is: When did it start going wrong? If you can discover the point x, then something must have happened at that point in time to cause the symptoms. Once you discover what happened, then you have found the cause of the problem.

Analyzing the Problem

The key questions you need to ask are:
What is wrong?

When did it go wrong? How much went wrong? Where did it go wrong? Who is involved?

Herringbones
Herringbones are a variant of the Ishikawa Fish Bone and serve the same purpose. The Ishikawa Fish Bone was invented in Japan for use by teams working in quality circles when trying to solve problems. They are most commonly used in operations departments.

Herringbones
The technique is particularly useful in determining what needs to be analyzed. A herringbone is like a structured brainstorm. You write down the issue you want to cover in the box marked 'Problem Statement', then brainstorm it using the headings on the herringbone.

Look at an example of a completed herringbone The issue was a backlog of work. A herringbone is a structured brainstorm, where the headings on each 'bone' provide a structure appropriate to the problem that needs to be solved.

Assumption Articulation
Identification of Assumption related to the situation and then moving to other steps Assumptions set limits and introduce a framework within which we can work Assumptions simplify the problems and make them easier to handle by providing fewer things to consider

Assumption Articulation
General Assumptions.

Assumptions based on the crux or most serious and important point of the problem.

Assumptions that try to determine and include constrains of the problem.

Six Thinking Hats

The six thinking hats technique was developed by Edward de Bono, Medical doctor and psychologist. He was first using the term lateral thinking. Lateral thinking means by him to think around the problem rather then dealing with it directly.

Six Thinking Hats

One problem that may occur when trying to generate ideas in a group is that one person generates an idea and everybody else criticizes it to see if it is good enough, this is called adversarial thinking. The members can also get looked in to a certain mind set, in some cases it is because of the concept generators role or profession in for example cross functional group.

Six Thinking Hats

Reversal Thinking
Another technique from Edward de Bono, reversal thinking, is classified as a Paradigm stretching technique. The principal benefit of the reversal thinking technique is the possibility for the users to obtain a new perspective about the problem or situation through reversing previous ideas or concepts. The methodology to implement this problem solving technique is described as follows

Reversal Thinking
- Once the problem is defined, write it down Develop a list of ideas related to the problem or situation. - Reverse the meaning of each idea without concerning because it seems to be a silly statement or without any relevance. When the objective is obtain an improvement, a good strategy is list all the possible negative characteristics of the product or process under study. - Using the reversal ideas as a basis, the participants can stimulate the creation of new ideas about the problem, which can result in possible solutions

Reversal Thinking
An example of the implementation of this technique could be finding out how to make the weekly meetings more efficient in a cross-functional team. Then, the team focused in the problem solving might define all the possible actions required to obtain the opposite of the original goal; turn the meeting less efficient so the attendants waste their time. As a result, several ideas of what things to avoid to obtain efficient meetings will come up and at the same time there will be a clear view of what things to do instead to achieve the goal.

(4)
Identify Likely Causes
What's different? What has changed? What are the most likely causes?

Identify Likely Causes

Identify the differences between what you have identified from your analysis of what is right and what is wrong.
This will enable you to discover what is distinctive about the problem.

What has changed? Something happened to cause the problem.

So what things changed round about the time the problem started to manifest itself.

What are the most likely explanations?

The work you have done so far should enable you to identify potential causes of the problem.

 In this stage of the PAID process you are looking for things which are:
Distinctive in the symptoms identified which distinguish the problem situation from the areas where you are satisfied Distinctive in the parts of the organization and specific locations where the problem arises which distinguish them from the areas where you are satisfied

What's Different?

 In this stage of the PAID process you are looking for things which are: Distinctive about the time a problem arises from times when it does not Different about a group which is affected by the problem compared to groups which are not affected by it

What's Different?

What Has Changed?

Often the changes involve:
People. These include changes in personnel, organization structure, workgroups, skill levels and leadership style Materials. Use of different materials, changes in material specification and changes in quality are all relevant

What Has Changed?

Often the changes involve:
Equipment. This includes introduction of new equipment and changes in maintenance procedures Processes. Introduction of new systems and procedures, changes to patterns of communication, training processes and so on

(5) Define Actual Causes

What is the most likely explanation? Can I prove it?

Define Actual Causes

Identifying what is the most likely explanation.
Of all the potential causes identified which is the most likely explanation for all the symptoms which have been identified?

Proving the cause.

This involves testing whether the cause identified can explain all the symptoms presented by the problem.

The Most Likely Cause

Does it explain all the data you have collected about the problem and what is wrong? Is it consistent with the data you have collected about things which are right?

Proving the Cause

Identification of the cause of a problem will almost inevitably lead to action designed to eliminate it. Deciding what to do involve decision making which is a distinct process in its own right and is dealt with in forthcoming slides. If action is taken to eliminate the wrong cause, there is a strong possibility that your actions will only make matters worse. Therefore, it is often worthwhile seeing if you can prove that the most likely explanation is the actual cause.

Proving the Cause

Proving the cause involves:
Checking that the actual cause identified does explain all the facts at your disposal About both the problem and those things that are right.

Testing that any assumptions you have made which support the analysis are accurate. Trying to replicate the problem situation in a controlled test.

Review
Once you have found the cause you should conduct a review to see if you can improve your performance next time round. The review should focus on three basic questions:
What went well? What went less well? What should we do differently next time?

Decision Making
The ICES decision making process stands for Initiate Criteria Evaluate Select

Decision Making
A decision is about making choices. It is the cut off point at which you stop the process of thinking and begin the process of action. There are many types of decisions including: Yes or no decisions Choose from a list Creative

Making Decisions
If a decision is a cut off point when the thinking process stops, Clearly the quality of thinking determines the quality of decisions. But what is involved in the thinking process? There are many ways to make decisions and all manners of decisions to be made. Which do you think are the most difficult type? All of them!

The ICES Process

INITIATE: Deciding what to decide This is the first important stage of any decision making process - INITIATING THE DECISION CRITERIA: Defining exactly what you want EVALUATE: Evaluating the options available EVALUATING the options against the CRITERIA. SELECT: Selecting the best option

Evaluating Options
Generating several options will normally help you to select the one that will best help you achieve your decisions objectives.
The time and effort spent generating options depends on the importance of the decision being made. Options can be generated by: Problem Solving Techniques

Evaluating Options
So far youve learnt how to initiate the decision making process by:
Describing the decision to be made Producing a set of essential and desirable criteria

There is not an optimum number of options for making an effective decision Sometimes a decision is simply just yes or no or a choice between two things.