ENSO AND ITS IMPACT ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

ENSO
El Nino + Southern oscillation or El Nino/La Nina/Southern oscillation refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. A climatic pattern that occur in the Pacific ocean once in roughly four or five years. El Nino and La Nina represent opposite extremes in the naturally occurring climate cycle referred to as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Tahiti, Peru and Darwin in Australian coast are the areas where the surface air pressure difference determine the Southern oscillation

Southern Oscillation Index

[ Pdiff - Pdiffav ] SOI = 10 x ----------------SD(Pdiff)
SOI ranges from -35 to 35 When SOI is positive then normal conditions will prevail When SOI is negative then El Nino conditions will prevail

Normal Conditions in Pacific

Normally the water in the tropical western Pacific is much warmer (about 8Celsius) than the water off the shore of Peru and Ecuador. Therefore there is lower air pressure over the West Pacific and this results in the emergence of clouds and heavy rains, like they are common in south-east Asia and northern Australia. As the trade winds blow from East to West, they transport the warmer surface water westwards, therefore making place for colder waters from the depths of the sea. In the East Pacific the water is colder, therefore the air pressure higher. This situation leads to relatively dry circumstances at the South-American coastline.

Normal Conditions in Pacific

SOI=+1 to +5 Source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

El Nino Conditions
From time to time a huge warm water flow arises around the coasts of Ecuador, Peru and Northern Chile, causing massive weather changes around the world. This phenomenon also called El Nino, meaning The Christ Child, represents the largest so far known disturbance of the global weather conditions. An El Nino season is marked by a fading or even an inversion of the trade winds. Warm water flows from the West Pacific eastwards, forging a significant rise in the temperature of the surface water off the western coast of South-America. The humid conditions, which normally dominate in the West Pacific shift to the East and the arid situation, which controls the climate in the eastern pacific, arises in the West. Therefore rainfalls with associated flooding are encountered in Peru and droughts in Australia.

Contd
The first signs of an El Nio are: Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian deserts Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.

El Nino Conditions

Source: http://www.philonline.com/~cab

La nina conditions in Pacific

The name La Nina, meaning Little Girl in English, has been given to it, because of its opposition to El Nio. Sometimes it is also called El Viejo, meaning The Old. Although emerging from the exact opposite climatic conditions than El Nino, La Nina nevertheless causes abnormal and extreme weather conditions in the Southern Pacific area. When it occurs the surface water in the Eastern Pacific cools down below average. As a result the trade winds blow faster and this leads to an increase in the upwelling of cold nutrient rich waters near the South American West Coast.

Contd
In the past El Nio and La Nia appeared well balanced, but the amount of damage caused by La Nia is significantly smaller than this caused by El Nio. Compared to it's brother event, La Nia causes vastly less natural disasters. That's the reason why El Nio always casts a shadow on his little sister and why people are not nearly as afraid of La Nia than of El Nio.

La Nina in Pacific Conditions

Source: http://www.philonline.com/~cab

La Nina in Pacific Conditions

[Source: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html]

Tropical cyclones
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move pole ward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt. When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to El Nino, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Nio years. On the flip side however, the tropical Pacific Ocean east has above normal activity during El Nio years due to well above average water temperatures and decreased windshear. Most of the recorded East Pacific Category 5 hurricanes occur during El Nio years in clusters.

 La Nina and El Nino events has found that El Nino/La NinaSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the frequency, genesis and intensity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. According to the scientists, so far 20 devastating cyclones had occurred in India. 10-La nina and 9-El nino phase, but solid proof or establishment need to be made. Increased speed of Wind in the pacific ocean during La nina period will make the Indonesian ocean sea surface temperature to rise and thereby affecting the temperature or making the BOB warmer. With the Ocean getting heated up, the intensity of cyclones will increase in BOB Also found that genesis got shifted.

Indian cyclones and ENSO

Contd
The importance of Cyclones from AB got attention after 2 cyclones of 2007-relation with ENSO analyzed-SST analysis by satellite monitoring-sharp increase in SST since 2000-during strongest El nino year (1997-98) and (1982-1983)-SST also touched new high. Both BOB and AB shows higher SSTs during La Nina phases.

Climate Change and ENSO

With the increasing studies on climate change, the frequency of occurrence of El Nino and La Nina is found to change abruptly. No prior prediction facility Only predicted after onset As 25% of Worlds climate determined by Pacific ocean many countries are found to be affected by it Drought conditions of Australia coincide with that of India Increased intensity of Cyclones and occurrence in India.

REFERENCE
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html accessed on 24th October 2011 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay accessed on 25th October 2011 http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO/.Time_Serie s/SOI.html accessed on 25th October 2011 http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO/.Time_Serie s/SOI.html accessed on 24th October 2011 http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ncc_rept/RESEARCH%20REPORT%204.pdf accessed on 27th October 2011 http:// www.enotes.com Science World of Earth Science accessed on 28th October 2011 http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/elninolanina. htm accessed on 26th October 2011