Capacity Building for Climate Change: A Climate Risk Management Approach

Prof. Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain Director Centre for Disaster and Vulnerability Studies (CDVS) Department of Sociology University of Dhaka Mobile: 01711-383926 Emial: mokaddemdu@yahoo.com cdvs.sociodu@gmail.com

 Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests and Coastal zones) The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantial, and in some cases, catastrophic:
Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the primary driver. 2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss. Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP). Hurricane Mitch (99) set Honduras economic development back 20 years (~75% of GDP).

Risks from Climate : Why should we care?

Adaptation will involve coping with climate shifts and variability in the context of several factors that influence vulnerability.

Increasing Vulnerability from Weather Risks

Magnitude of Weather Impacts

Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16

Climate change implications on disaster risks

i. ii.

Alteration of the mean state of climate Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events Combination of i. and ii. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)

iii. iv.

Climate Vulnerability and Development: Common concerns

Average Mortality per Disaster

Per-Capita Weather Impacts

Deaths per Event

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 LHD MHD HHD Human Development
Series1

Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16

Source: World Disasters Report 2001

For anticipated risks:

Draw on experiences of human systems in dealing with current climate variability and extremes to provide guidance in designing adaptation strategies

For unanticipated risks:

Draw on experiences of human systems in dealing with extreme climate events of rare severity to provide guidance in designing adaptation strategies

Risks from Climate Variability to the Economy

Business and increased uncertainty do not mix well. Increased climate variability will impact long-run growth since resources will be needed to hedge against climate related economic uncertainty. Impacts:
Agriculture and Natural Resources Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking) Knock-on effect on other sectors
Global Weather Related Losses in US $ Billion
1960

3 0

1965 1970 1990

1975

1980

1985

Total Economic Loss Average loss per Decade Insured Loss Mean Insured Loss per Decade

2 5

2 0

1 5

1 0

Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute

Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable to climate variability

Current efforts: approaches

Manage risks from current climate variability and extremes actions taken today to reduce vulnerability will increase resilience and security by providing a buffer against vulnerability to future climate change

Manage risks at all time scales (weather, climate, extremes, changing climate) in a risk management framework (Climate Risk Management)
Multi-stakeholder approach Involvement of stakeholders in identification and prioritization of

risks and risk management options

Observable trends inform risk assessments

Managing uncertainties (probabilistic method, use of thresholds, etc.)

Adopting Climate Risk Management

Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change Detect observable climate change trends Confirm observable trends with climate change models Downscale and provide locally usable climate information Establish institutional partnership with climate information providers and users Community based climate risk management programs grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.

What is Climate Risk Management Approach?

Climate risk management approach means that we should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change

Climate Risk Management approach:

1) Analysis of climate-related risks Elements at risk: what, where, who Climate stresses: historical and current climate variability and trends, prediction of climate variability and extremes to capture observable trends from a changing climate Non-climate stresses Impact assessment: climate-dependent sectors Assessment of coping/ adaptation strategies, acceptable risks, institutional responses Analysis of residual risks/ adaptation deficits Analysis of long-term risks through stakeholder consultation, noting considerable uncertainties in socioeconomic projections

Climate Risk Management approach:

2) Analysis of institution, decision and policy landscape Inventory of institutions involved in climate risk management and their decision and policy frameworks for confronting climate risks Needs and nature of information demands to support decision-making Capacity to generate, interpret, translate and communicate climate information Consensus-based identification and prioritization of risk management actions Participatory process leads to stakeholder ownership of priority actions identified and accountability in their implementation

3)

4)

Climate Risk Management approach:

5)

Development of decision-support tools. Includes climate information tailored to user needs at different planning horizons: Weather (3d) for saving lives (DM) Extended weather (10d) for early mitigation decisions (DM) Medium-term forecast (20-25d) for logistics planning (DM) Seasonal (6mos) for resource management planning (agriculture, water) Long-term trends for evaluating how decisions and investments today can withstand future extremes (infrastructure, environment, planning) Institutional engagement and capacity development Active focal point able to bring DRR and CCA communities together Regular dialogues (e.g. Monsoon Forum) Training and demonstration

Climate Risk Management approach:

6) Local tool application
Application of decision-support tools by planners, disaster managers, farmers, etc. Facilitation of user uptake of climate information Institutions mobilize resources to support implementation of priority action

7) Policy support

8) Receiving feedback to improve climate risk management process and tools 9) Sustaining initiatives by mainstreaming into local and national development processes

 Address the integrated climate-society system Start with understanding of vulnerability and focus on resilience Place and context matter Understand decision-making framework to help guide climate information development, delivery and applications Useful and usable information Continuum of climate timescales Scale, timing, format & language appropriate to application and user community Responsive to user needs Incorporates new insights/capabilities

Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives

Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives

Appropriate tools, technologies and mechanisms Process and products Importance of integrated program of observations, monitoring, forecasting, assessment and applications with continuous evaluation (and adjustment as necessary) Document and share experiences Build on existing systems, institutions, programs, relationships & networks

Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives

Education, training & capacity-building essential Government leadershipat all levels Extremes a valuable focus; opportunities for science, engagement, building resilience Proactive planningclimate risk management in a sustainable development context Risk management a valuable framework for building partnerships and guiding climate information systems

Need to take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks

Integrated Climate Risk Management

Integrated risk management focus that brings together current risk and disaster and adaptation to climate change concerns and communities, relating these closely to sectoral and territorial sustainable development caucuses and agencies Integrated climate risk management, as a concept, would address both the hazards and vulnerabilities which configure particular risk scenarios and would range in scale from actions to manage the local manifestations of global climate risk, through to global measures to reduce hazard (for example, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and to reduce vulnerability (by increasing the social and economic resilience of vulnerable countries such as SIDS, for example).

Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective

Climate Variability Coping Strategies Science and Assessment
Science of Climate
Useful knowledge Broad Sector Studies Decision making under uncertainty

Before the fact: Preparedness

Climate only one input! Design of local strategies Incorporation into practice Training & policy shift

After the fact: Relief

Disaster Relief Management Current Barriers New Technologies and Political will

Science and Assessments: From Global to Local and Back

Scientific knowledge:

Usable knowledge:

data, models, facts influences on the ground decisions prediction, economic value Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale

Difficulty:

Capacity building challenge:

learning to extract useful local info. in the face of uncertainty Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction with the real world.

Local

Regional Scale

Global

Predictability

Uncertainty

Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation is the answer, what is the question?
Climate is one input among many:

Multiple stressors

goal is to reduce impact on economy and society (human development)

Multiple Stakeholders

Increased climate variability Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factors Changes in operating regimes
Added complexity and coordination Recognition that stakes vary The poorest take the biggest hit

Climate

Other Stressors

Policy & Politics

 Knowledge Generation

Capacity Building (I): Knowledge Generation and Integration

Knowledge about the climatic system (e.g., regional models)

Knowledge Integration

Ability to convert raw scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g., probability of rainfall failure)
Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local knowledge. Easier said than done! Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities. Find the experts. Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments in response. Two-way street. Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate feedback to analysts.

Capacity Building (II): Preparedness and Response

Whose capacity?
The entire system: Knowledge generators (Scientists) Mediators (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets) End users (people, banks, private sector) Infrastructure (road, rail, telecom)

What does it require?

Linking knowledge to action.

Credible and Appropriate Knowledge Institutional adjustment Financial considerations Top-down and bottom up flows

Capacity Building: Three Core Challenges

Building Effective Knowledge Generation Systems

Meeting Financial Considerations

Who pays? Who calls the shots? How is the money spent?

A system that moves information from top-down to bottom up and vice-versa. Is credible with users That links with other efforts.

Capacity Capacity

Enabling Institutional Transformations

Bridging existing gaps within and among institutions. Making existing institutions more porous Building new institutions

Financing Knowledge systems

Institutional Transformation

Some Lessons from Disaster Mitigation Efforts (Red Cross)

No coherent risk reduction community: professionals trying to Risk reduction cannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical solutions. It is also a matter of enacting and enforcing laws,
mitigate impacts are fragmented along institutional boundaries.

Community-based approaches lead to more accurate definition of

Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) can provide participants
problems and solutions, because they draw on local expertise in living with disasters. Communities at risk must trust those delivering the warnings. with greater awareness of their own potentialities. Instead of seeing themselves as victims, people tell themselves that they can influence what happens. So VCA is a capacity-building tool as well as a diagnostic measure.

building and maintaining accountable institutions, and producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population.

Need to take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks

Give appropriate attention to all risks & uncertainties

Climate variables: Which characteristics are important? magnitude, direction, averaging period, statistical basis. How may these change? Info on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain but risk assessment may show these are highest risk Uncertainty in non-climate risks & impact models may be of greater significance than uncertainties over climate hazards Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties

Give appropriate attention to all risks & uncertainties

Climate variables: Which characteristics are important? magnitude, direction, averaging period, statistical basis. How may these change? Info on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain but risk assessment may show these are highest risk Uncertainty in non-climate risks & impact models may be of greater significance than uncertainties over climate hazards Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties

Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
The scope of the Center must be framed in broad terms - else a
lot of narrowly focused capacity could be developed. Not very useful for concerns about economy and human security.

S&T capacity for knowledge generation is only one aspect of the picture. It is critical that capacity building address how this knowledge is Do not reinvent the wheel. Many organizations tend to begin from
used, and how feedback is incorporated. scratch when there is no need to. Leverage and build connections to existing capacity.

Research success stories before embarking on mission: Are

there other organizations that have been successful in similar missions? (CGIAR Centers? IRI? Red Cross? WHO efforts? )

Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
Appropriate representation and participation is needed : those with understanding of local issues as well as various stakeholders (especially most vulnerable) expert communities - suitable balance of S&T, social science, public/private (knowledge generation) as well as implementation. Need to think about entrenched interests! Convince Northern institutions to cede monopoly position. Otherwise growth of center may be stunted because of difficulty in attracting talented people, finances, etc.

Thanks & Questions