Topic: Fuzzy Logic

Knowledge Acquisition and

Interface Design
Group 3:
Rahul Sharma
Sumar Loomba
Nisheeth Gupta
Pallavi Sagne
Ritu Khushwaha
Prashanth R
Praveen Rathod
Rohan Dange
Rakesh Kumar 1
FUZZY LOGIC
WHAT IS FUZZY LOGIC?
Definition of fuzzy
Fuzzy not clear, distinct, or precise; blurred
Definition of fuzzy logic
A form of knowledge representation suitable for notions that
cannot be defined precisely, but which depend upon their
contexts.

TRADITIONAL REPRESENTATION OF
LOGIC
Slow Fast
Speed = 0 Speed = 1
bool speed;
get the speed
if ( speed == 0) {
// speed is slow
}
else {
// speed is fast
}

FUZZY LOGIC REPRESENTATION
For every problem
must represent in terms
of fuzzy sets.

What are fuzzy sets?

Slowest
Fastest
Slow
Fast
[ 0.0 0.25
]
[ 0.25 0.50 ]
[ 0.50 0.75 ]
[ 0.75 1.00 ]
FUZZY LOGIC REPRESENTATION CONT.
Slowest Fastest
float speed;
get the speed
if ((speed >= 0.0)&&(speed < 0.25)) {
// speed is slowest
}
else if ((speed >= 0.25)&&(speed < 0.5))
{
// speed is slow
}
else if ((speed >= 0.5)&&(speed < 0.75))
{
// speed is fast
}
else // speed >= 0.75 && speed < 1.0
{
// speed is fastest
}


Slow Fast
ORIGINS OF FUZZY LOGIC
Traces back to Ancient Greece
Lotfi Asker Zadeh ( 1965 )
First to publish ideas of fuzzy logic.
Professor Toshire Terano ( 1972 )
Organized the world's first working group on fuzzy systems.
F.L. Smidth & Co. ( 1980 )
First to market fuzzy expert systems.

FUZZY LOGIC IN CONTROL SYSTEMS
Fuzzy Logic provides a more efficient and resourceful
way to solve Control Systems.
Some Examples
Temperature Controller
Anti Lock Break System ( ABS )

TEMPERATURE CONTROLLER
The problem
Change the speed of a heater fan, based off the room
temperature and humidity.
A temperature control system has four settings
Cold, Cool, Warm, and Hot
Humidity can be defined by:
Low, Medium, and High
Using this we can define
the fuzzy set.




BENEFITS OF USING FUZZY LOGIC
ANTI LOCK BREAK SYSTEM ( ABS )
Nonlinear and dynamic in nature
Inputs for Intel Fuzzy ABS are derived from
Brake
4 WD
Feedback
Wheel speed
Ignition
Outputs
Pulsewidth
Error lamp
FUZZY LOGIC IN OTHER FIELDS
Business
Hybrid Modeling
Expert Systems
13

Fuzzy Logic and Knowledge
Based Systems (AI)
Knowledge Acquisition
What is Knowledge Acquisition?
Knowledge acquisition(KA) is the process of acquiring
knowledge from a human expert for an expert system which
must be carefully organized into if-then else rules or some other
form of knowledge representation. KA is the process of
absorbing and storing new information in memory, the success
of which depends on how well the information can later be
retrieved from memory. The process of storing and retrieving
information depends heavily on the representation and
organization of the information.
27/02/2013 14
15
Knowledge Acquisition INTRODUCTION
& BACKGROUND
The important characteristics of knowledge are that it is
experiential, descriptive, qualitative, largely undocumented and
constantly changing.

There are certain domains where all these properties are found
and some where there are only a few.

The lack of documentation and the fact that experts carry a lot of
information in their heads, make it difficult to gain access to their
knowledge for developing information systems in general and
expert systems in particular.

Therefore, knowledge engineers have devised specialised
techniques to extract and document this information in an efficient
and expedient manner: Knowledge Acquisition.
16
Knowledge Acquisition INTRODUCTION
& BACKGROUND
Currently knowledge bases for knowledge based systems are crafted
by hand, this is a severe limitation on the rapid deployment of such
systems.
The automation of knowledge acquisition (from text) would greatly ease
this problem.
There is considerable interest in developing software tools which would
allow the automatic construction of knowledge bases from textual
information.
This will provide the opportunity to rapidly build knowledge bases thus
increasing, for example, the rate at which knowledge based systems can
be developed and deployed
Knowledge acquisition can be regarded as a method by which a
knowledge engineer obtains information from experts, text books,
and other authoritative sources for ultimate translation into a
machine language and knowledge base.
The person undertaking the knowledge acquisition must convert the
acquired knowledge into a form that a computer program can use.

17
Knowledge Acquisition INTRODUCTION
& BACKGROUND
In the process of Knowledge Acquisition for an Expert System Project,
the knowledge engineer basically performs four major tasks in
sequence:
First, the engineer ensures that he or she understands the aims and objectives of
the proposed expert system to get a feeling for the potential scope of the
project.
Second, he or she develops a working knowledge of the problem domain by
mastering it's terminology by looking up technical dictionaries and
terminology data bases. For this task the key sources of knowledge are
identified: textbooks, papers, technical reports, manuals, codes of practice,
and domain experts.
Third, the knowledge engineer interacts with experts via meetings or interviews
to acquire, verify and validate their knowledge.
Fourth, the knowledge engineer produces a "paper knowledge base"; a document
or group of documents which form an intermediate stage in the translation of
knowledge from source to computer program. This comprises the interview
transcripts, the analysis of the information they contain and a full description
of the major domain entities (e.g. tasks, rules and objects).
18
Knowledge Acquisition INTRODUCTION
& BACKGROUND
Knowledge engineers interview experts in a specialist domain about how
he or she solves a given problem. Before interviewing the experts, the
knowledge engineers have to formulate their questions, and after the
interview the answers to the questions have to be analyzed.
The knowledge engineer has to familiarize himself or herself with the
terminology of the specialist domain; he or she has to consult technical
manuals, and in some cases learned papers, to see how the experts knowledge
is applied; the knowledge engineers sometimes consults textbooks or
encyclopedic texts for understanding the conceptual structure of the experts
domain.
In many different ways the knowledge engineer literally has to come to
terms with the language used by the expert and that used in the other
texts mentioned above. The knowledge engineer should become
conversant in the specialist language of his or her application domain.
19
Knowledge acquisition involves
elicitation, analysis, modelling and
validation of knowledge

1. Employing a technique to elicit data (usually verbal) from the expert.
2. Interpreting these verbal data (more or less skilfully) in order to infer
what might be the expert's underlying knowledge and reasoning
process.
3. Using this interpretation to guide the construction of some model or
language that describes (more or less accurately) the expert's
knowledge and performance.
4. Interpretation of further data is guided in turn by this evolving
model.
5. The principle focus for the knowledge acquisition team should be in
constructing models, in domain definition, or problem identification
and problem analysis.

20
Roles for knowledge acquisition
Knowledge engineering and management: technological
innovation, ontology construction, document mark-up
AI systems development: generic methodologies (e.g., KADS: KADS
stands for ``Knowledge Analysis and Documentation System''. Later on,
other interpretations have been given to this acronym, such as
``Knowledge Analysis and Design Support'. KADS is the name of a
structured methodology for the development of knowledge based systems
that is now in practical use in many places in Europe and elsewhere.)
Organizational analysis: process approaches
Task analysis: job design
User analysis: generation of cognitive specifications for tasks, the
mitigation of human error in domains of risk or time pressure, the
enhancement of proficiency through training and skill remediation
Requirements elicitation: systems or design analysis, conceptual
database design, software requirements definition
21
Preliminary Work I involves Reading,
Observation, Discussion
Preliminary work is carried out by knowledge engineer(s)
Knowledge engineering is knowledge acquisition for expert system
development, and used to describe the reduction of a large body of
knowledge to a precise set of facts and rules

Knowledge engineer is a computer software programmer who gathers
knowledge from experts and then translates the knowledge into the
knowledge base of a computerised expert system in a structured and logical
way, and eventually constructs computerised expert systems.

"Knowledge acquisition is a bottleneck in the construction of expert
systems. The knowledge engineer's job is to act as a go-between to help an
expert build a system. Since the knowledge engineer has far less knowledge
of the domain than the expert, however, communication problems impede
the process of transferring expertise into a program. The vocabulary
initially used by the expert to talk about the domain with a novice is often
inadequate for problem-solving; thus the knowledge engineer and expert
must work together to extend and refine it. One of the most difficult aspects
of the knowledge engineer's task is helping the expert to structure the
domain knowledge, to identify and formalize the domain concepts." (Ref:
22
Preliminary Work - II
When acquiring knowledge about a domain it is absolutely crucial that the
knowledge engineer can converse with the expert using the expert
terminology.
The knowledge engineer has to have a good grasp of the domain to be able
to ask intelligent questions to extract important and relevant knowledge
from the experts who have vast amounts of knowledge a lot of which is
tacit knowledge.
The knowledge engineer must therefore do some preliminary work
including research on the domain in question before the first interview with
the expert takes place.
Some requirements for KA Techniques
Take experts off the job for short time periods
Allow non-experts to understand the knowledge
Focus on the essential knowledge
Try to capture tacit knowledge
Allow knowledge to be collated from different experts
Allow knowledge to be validated and maintained
23
The Knowledge Handbook
One of the functions of the knowledge engineer during the knowledge
acquisition phase is to document the knowledge that has been acquired. One
idea suggested (Wolfgram et. al. 1987 and others) is that of building a
knowledge handbook.
Wolfgram et. al. describe the contents of the knowledge handbook as follows:
The general problem description.
Who the users are and their expectations from the system.
A breakdown of the problems into sub-problems and sub-domains for
future knowledge acquisition.
A detailed description of the domain or sub-domain to be used for the
prototype.
A bibliography of reference documents.
A list of vocabulary, concepts, terms, phrases and acronyms in the domain.
A list of experts for the prototype.
Some reasonable performance standards for the system, based on
consultation with the experts and users.
Descriptions of typical reasoning scenarios gained from the knowledge
acquisition.

24
Basic knowledge engineering for
knowledge acquisition - I
Knowledge engineer act as a go-between the expert and knowledge base.
This can be achieved by means of eliciting knowledge from the expert,
encoding it for the knowledge base, and refining it in collaboration with the
expert in order to achieve acceptable performance. The process is basically
as follows:
The knowledge engineer interviews the expert to elicit his or her
knowledge;
The knowledge engineer encodes the elicited knowledge for the
knowledge base;
The shell uses the knowledge base to make inferences about particular
cases specified by clients;
The clients use the shell's inferences to obtain advice about particular
cases

25
Basic knowledge engineering for
knowledge acquisition - II
Basic knowledge engineering model with manual acquisition of knowledge
from an expert (left-hand side of the figure). This is also followed by
interactive application of the knowledge with multiple clients through an
expert system shell (right-hand side of the figure).

26
Interactive Knowledge Engineering for
Interactive Knowledge Acquisition -I
In an interactive knowledge engineering process for interactive knowledge
acquisition, knowledge engineers have responsibility for:
Advising the experts on the process of interactive knowledge
elicitation;
Managing the interactive knowledge acquisition tools, setting them up
appropriately;
Editing the uuencoded knowledge base in collaboration with the
experts;
Managing the knowledge encoding tools, setting them up
appropriately;
Editing the encoded knowledge base in collaboration with the experts;
Validating the application of the knowledge base in collaboration with
the experts;
Setting up the user interface in collaboration with the experts and
clients;
Training the clients in the effective use of the knowledge base in
collaboration with the expert by developing operational and training
procedures.
27
Interactive Knowledge Engineering for
Interactive knowledge acquisition -II
28
Interactive Knowledge Engineering for
Interactive Knowledge Acquisition -III
Interactive knowledge acquisition and encoding tools can greatly reduce the
need for the knowledge engineer to act as an intermediary but, in most
applications, they leave a substantial role for the knowledge engineer.
This use of interactive elicitation can be combined with manual elicitation and
with the use of the interactive tools by knowledge engineers rather than, or in
addition to, experts. Knowledge engineers can directly elicit knowledge from
the expert and use the interactive elicitation tools to enter knowledge into the
knowledge base.
Such approach is very useful and effective as it allows use of
Multiple knowledge engineers since the tasks may require the effort of
more than one person, and some specialization may be appropriate
Multiple experts since one person (expert) should not be expected to
have all the knowledge required, and, even if such an expert exists,
comparative elicitation from multiple experts is itself a valuable
knowledge elicitation technique
Validation process, which is a key to an effective and successful system
development
29
Knowledge Acquisition
Tasks performed by a knowledge
engineer
Domain Terminology
Salient domain features
Revise Learn
Scope of the problem
Knowledge Sources
Outline Constrain
Problem-solving tasks
Domain objects
Specify Verify
Paper Knowledge Base
Rules and Heuristics
Produce Validate
Overview Interview
Focussed
Interviews

Literature Review

Structured
Interview
Rule Animation
Objectives Revision Phase Discovery Phase
Technique Used
Consult Textbooks
Traditional Approach to Knowledge Acquisition
In the traditional approach to acquiring knowledge, a
knowledge engineer consults reference materials, databases,
and human experts.

The knowledge captured will be both explicit and tacit
knowledge.

Explicit knowledge is acquired through printed material.

Tacit knowledge originates from human resources. It is the
tacit knowledge that never gets quantified into a manual or
other accessible form, but resides in the minds of the people
who have worked with and developed that information.
Tacit Knowledge Acquisition
Traditional Methods for Tacit knowledge acquisition are Costly
because at least two (typically) expensive people are involved, i.e.,
the domain expert and the knowledge engineer.

The methods are error prone because people cant easily say what it
is that they do in a manner that can be understood by others

Traditional Methods is time-consuming because errors, gaps, and
inconsistencies may be difficult to discover, requiring many
interactions between experts and knowledge engineers to debug a
field-ready application.

Clearly, costs must be reduced, errors eliminated, and development
time shortened. An approach to solve these issues is to augment the
knowledge engineer with a framework for knowledge acquisition.
Explicit Knowledge Acquisition
There are often several sources of explicit knowledge

1. Literature : These documents can also be helpful in defining and clarifying the
terminology of the problem domain.

2. Company Policy Manuals and Regulations : These documents are generally
formatted and organized in a manner that is analogous to the format and organization
of business rules specifications.

3. Reports, Memos and Guidelines : These types of documents are generally not
formatted and organized in a manner that is useful to the elicitation process.

4. Published Books and Journal Articles : Published sources are generally the least
useful forms of documentation to the elicitation process.

5. Existing Application Code

6. Database-Stored Procedures

7. Program Source Code

Tools for Knowledge
Acquisition
-Rahul sharma
Elicitation Methods
Manual
Based on interview
Track reasoning process
Observation
Semiautomatic
Build base with minimal help from
knowledge engineer
Allows execution of routine tasks with
minimal expert input
Automatic
Minimal input from both expert and
knowledge engineer


Manual Methods
Interviews
Structured
Goal-oriented
Walk through
Unstructured
Complex domains
Data unrelated and difficult to integrate
Semistructured
Manual Methods
Process tracking
Track reasoning processes
Protocol analysis
Document experts decision-making
Think aloud process
Observation
Motor movements
Eye movements

Manual Methods
Case analysis
Critical incident
User discussions
Expert commentary
Graphs and conceptual models
Brainstorming
Prototyping
Multidimensional scaling for distance matrix
Clustering of elements
Iterative performance review
Semiautomatic Methods
Repertory grid analysis
Personal construct theory
Organized, perceptual model of experts knowledge
Expert identifies domain objects and their attributes
Expert determines characteristics and opposites for each
attribute
Expert distinguishes between objects, creating a grid
Expert transfer system
Computer program that elicits information from
experts
Rapid prototyping
Used to determine sufficiency of available
knowledge


Semiautomatic Methods, continued
Computer based tools features:
Ability to add knowledge to base
Ability to assess, refine knowledge
Visual modeling for construction of domain
Creation of decision trees and rules
Ability to analyze information flows
Integration tools

Automatic Methods
Data mining by computers
Inductive learning from existing
recognized cases
Neural computing mimicking human
brain
Genetic algorithms using natural
selection
Neural network (MLP)
Model of an artificial neuron
General neuro-fuzzy architecture
Multiple Experts
Scenarios
Experts contribute individually
Primary experts information reviewed by
secondary experts
Small group decision
Panels for verification and validation
Approaches
Consensus methods
Analytic approaches
Automation of process through software usage
Decomposition

Automated Knowledge Acquisition
Induction
Activities
Training set with known outcomes
Creates rules for examples
Assesses new cases
Advantages
Limited application
Builder can be expert
Saves time, money
Automated Knowledge
Acquisition
Difficulties
Rules may be difficult to understand
Experts needed to select attributes
Algorithm-based search process produces
fewer questions
Rule-based classification problems
Allows few attributes
Many examples needed
Examples must be cleansed
Limited to certainties
Examples may be insufficient

Automated Knowledge
Acquisition
Interactive induction
Incrementally induced knowledge
General models
Object Network
Based on interaction with expert
interviews
Computer supported
Induction tables
IF-THEN-ELSE rules
Practical Application of
Fuzzy Logic


Rakesh kumar,108


Fault Analysis
The fuzzy detection system is developed and tested with
noisy data and with filtered data. It detects on filtered
data i.e. very accurate with no false alarms and
negligible missed alarms.

Decision Making
A new decision making method using fuzzy logic is
proposed. The objective is to solve behaviour conflicts in
behaviour-based architectures. Two main problems have
been identified: how to decide which behaviour should
be activated at each instant; and how to combine the
results from different behaviours into one action.



Image Analysis
fuzzy technique, was chosen for image
enhancement and applied in a very specific field
of optical measurements

Scheduling
The scheduling and mapping of the precedence-
constrained task graphs of parallel programs to
processors is considered one of the most crucial NP-
complete problems in parallel and distributed computing
systems. task scheduling model based on fuzzy logic is
proposed

.
Problem Solving Methodology
It is used directly and indirectly in a no. of applications


Fraud Detection
The system detects probable fraudulent behaviour:
by evaluating all the characteristics of a provider's claim data in
parallel,
against the normal behaviour of a small( in demographic terms )
community.

Soft Computing
Soft computing plays an increasingly important role in
many application areas, including software engineering.

Intelligent Robotics
The use of fuzzy logic has resulted in smooth motion
control robust performance in face of errors in the prior
knowledge and in the sensor data and principled
integration between different layers.


Speech Recognition

To apply fuzzy logic to speech recognition is a new attempt in digital
speech processing. The approach proposed in the paper simplifies the
algorithm in speech recognition and makes the real-time processing
time shorter.
Practical Applications

Captures intuitive, human expressions

Precision temperature and humidity control

Straightforward and therefore inexpensive
Control electronics


Practical Applications

Electric Power

Industrial applications

Automated Cow Status Monitoring




Practical Applications

Applied to motor control

Minimization of cycling times

Fuzzy logic Design

Knowledge Representation
Pallavi Sagne , 92
Ritu Kushwaha,112
Fuzzy logic is a set of mathematical principles for
knowledge representation based on degrees of
membership.

Unlike two-valued Boolean logic, fuzzy logic is multi-
valued.
It deals with degrees of membership and degrees of
truth.
Logical values between 0 (completely false) and 1
(completely true).
Accepting that things can be partly true and partly
false at the same time.

Range of logical values in
Boolean and fuzzy logic

(a) Boolean Logic. (b) Multi-valued Logic.
0 1 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0 1 1 0
The classical example in fuzzy sets is tall men.
The elements of the fuzzy set tall men are all men, but their
degrees of membership depend on their height.

Degree of Membership
Fuzzy
Mark
John
Tom
Bob
Bill
1
1
1
0
0
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.82
0.78
Peter
Steven
Mike
David
Chris
Crisp
1
0
0
0
0
0.24
0.15
0.06
0.01
0.00
Name Height, cm
205
198
181
167
155
152
158
172
179
208
Crisp and fuzzy sets of tall
men

150 210 170 180 190 200 160
Height, cm
Degree of
Membership
Tall Men
150 210 180 190 200
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
160
Degree of
Membership
170
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Height, cm
Fuzzy Sets
Crisp Sets
The x-axis represents the universe of discourse
The range of all possible values applicable to a chosen
variable.
In our case, the variable is the man height.
According to this representation, the universe of mens
heights consists of all tall men.

The y-axis represents the membership value of the fuzzy
set.
In our case, the fuzzy set of tall men maps height
values into corresponding membership values.

A fuzzy set is a set with fuzzy boundaries.

Let X be the universe of discourse and its elements be
denoted as x.
In the classical set theory, crisp set A of X is defined as
function fA(x) called the characteristic function of A

fA(x): X {0, 1}, where

e
e
=
A x
A x
x f
A
if 0,
if 1,
) (
In the fuzzy theory, fuzzy set A of universe X is defined by
function A(x) called the membership function of set A

A(x): X [0, 1], where A(x) = 1 if x is totally in A;
A(x) = 0 if x is not in
A;
0 < A(x) < 1 if x is partly in
A.

membership function A(x) equals the degree to which x is an
element of set A.
This degree, a value between 0 and 1, represents the degree
of membership, also called membership value, of element x in
set A.


Crisp and fuzzy sets of short, average and
tall men
150 210 170 180 190 200 160
Height, cm
Degree of
Membership
Tall Men
150 210 180 190 200
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
160
Degree of
Membership
Short Average Short Tall
170
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Fuzzy Sets
Crisp Sets
Short Average
Tall
Tall
Representation of crisp and fuzzy
subsets
Fuzzy Subset A
Fuzziness
1
0
Crisp Subset A Fuzziness
x
X
(x)
Typical functions that can be used to represent a fuzzy set
Sigmoid, Gaussian and pi.
These functions increase the time of computation.
In practice, most applications use linear fit functions.
68
Abduction
Abduction is a reasoning process that tries to form
plausible explanations for abnormal observations
Abduction is distinctly different from deduction and induction
Abduction is inherently uncertain
Uncertainty is an important issue in abductive
reasoning
Some major formalisms for representing and reasoning
about uncertainty
Mycins certainty factors (an early representative)
Probability theory (esp. Bayesian belief networks)
Dempster-Shafer theory
Fuzzy logic
Truth maintenance systems
Nonmonotonic reasoning
69
Abduction
Definition (Encyclopedia Britannica):
reasoning that derives an explanatory
hypothesis from a given set of facts
The inference result is a hypothesis that, if true, could
explain the occurrence of the given facts
Examples
Dendral, an expert system to construct 3D structure of
chemical compounds
Fact: mass spectrometer data of the compound and its
chemical formula
KB: chemistry, esp. strength of different types of bounds
Reasoning: form a hypothetical 3D structure that satisfies
the chemical formula, and that would most likely produce
the given mass spectrum
70
Medical diagnosis
Facts: symptoms, lab test results, and other observed
findings (called manifestations)
KB: causal associations between diseases and
manifestations
Reasoning: one or more diseases whose presence
would causally explain the occurrence of the given
manifestations
Many other reasoning processes (e.g., word sense
disambiguation in natural language process, image
understanding, criminal investigation) can also been
seen as abductive reasoning
Abduction examples (cont.)
71
Comparing abduction, deduction,
and induction
Deduction: major premise: All balls in the box are black
minor premise: These balls are from the box
conclusion: These balls are black

Abduction: rule: All balls in the box are black
observation: These balls are black
explanation: These balls are from the box

Induction: case: These balls are from the box
observation: These balls are black
hypothesized rule: All ball in the box are black

A => B
A
---------
B
A => B
B
-------------
Possibly A
Whenever
A then B
-------------
Possibly
A => B
Deduction reasons from causes to effects
Abduction reasons from effects to causes
Induction reasons from specific cases to general rules
72
Characteristics of abductive
reasoning
Conclusions are hypotheses, not theorems (may
be false even if rules and facts are true)
E.g., misdiagnosis in medicine

There may be multiple plausible hypotheses
Given rules A => B and C => B, and fact B, both A
and C are plausible hypotheses
Abduction is inherently uncertain
Hypotheses can be ranked by their plausibility (if it
can be determined)
73
Characteristics of abductive
reasoning (cont.)
Reasoning is often a hypothesize-and-test cycle
Hypothesize: Postulate possible hypotheses, any of which
would explain the given facts (or at least most of the
important facts)
Test: Test the plausibility of all or some of these hypotheses
One way to test a hypothesis H is to ask whether something
that is currently unknownbut can be predicted from His
actually true
If we also know A => D and C => E, then ask if D and E are true
If D is true and E is false, then hypothesis A becomes more plausible
(support for A is increased; support for C is decreased)
74
Characteristics of abductive
reasoning (cont.)
Reasoning is non-monotonic
That is, the plausibility of hypotheses can
increase/decrease as new facts are collected
In contrast, deductive inference is monotonic: it
never change a sentences truth value, once
known
In abductive (and inductive) reasoning, some
hypotheses may be discarded, and new ones
formed, when new observations are made
75
Sources of uncertainty
Uncertain inputs
Missing data
Noisy data
Uncertain knowledge
Multiple causes lead to multiple effects
Incomplete enumeration of conditions or effects
Incomplete knowledge of causality in the domain
Probabilistic/stochastic effects
Uncertain outputs
Abduction and induction are inherently uncertain
Default reasoning, even in deductive fashion, is uncertain
Incomplete deductive inference may be uncertain
Probabilistic reasoning only gives probabilistic results
(summarizes uncertainty from various sources)
76
Decision making with
uncertainty
Rational behavior:
For each possible action, identify the possible
outcomes
Compute the probability of each outcome
Compute the utility of each outcome
Compute the probability-weighted (expected)
utility over possible outcomes for each action
Select the action with the highest expected utility
(principle of Maximum Expected Utility)
77
Bayesian reasoning
Probability theory
Bayesian inference
Use probability theory and information about
independence
Reason diagnostically (from evidence (effects) to
conclusions (causes)) or causally (from causes to
effects)
Bayesian networks
Compact representation of probability distribution
over a set of propositional random variables
Take advantage of independence relationships
78
Other uncertainty representations
Default reasoning
Nonmonotonic logic: Allow the retraction of default beliefs if
they prove to be false
Rule-based methods
Certainty factors (Mycin): propagate simple models of belief
through causal or diagnostic rules
Evidential reasoning
Dempster-Shafer theory: Bel(P) is a measure of the evidence
for P; Bel(P) is a measure of the evidence against P;
together they define a belief interval (lower and upper
bounds on confidence)
Fuzzy reasoning
Fuzzy sets: How well does an object satisfy a vague
property?
Fuzzy logic: How true is a logical statement?
79
Uncertainty tradeoffs
Bayesian networks: Nice theoretical properties
combined with efficient reasoning make BNs very
popular; limited expressiveness, knowledge
engineering challenges may limit uses
Nonmonotonic logic: Represent commonsense
reasoning, but can be computationally very expensive
Certainty factors: Not semantically well founded
Dempster-Shafer theory: Has nice formal
properties, but can be computationally expensive,
and intervals tend to grow towards [0,1] (not a very
useful conclusion)
Fuzzy reasoning: Semantics are unclear (fuzzy!),
but has proved very useful for commercial
applications