Origins of Operations Research: Science at War

E. P. Visco evisco4@cfl.rr.com Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]

Agenda
Earliest Beginnings & Men of Science From the Civil War to the Great War The Birth of Operations Research World War II & Korea Post War-Korea Insights and Ideas

Things That Are Younger Than Gene

The Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War Lawrences Lady Chatterleys Lover & Ravels Bolero Mickey Mouse, Penicillin, Yugoslavia Audrey Hepburn and Sophia Loren(1934), Sean Connery (1930); Regis Philbin (1931); Leonard Nimoy The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Center, the Folger Library, the Jefferson Memorial, & the National Gallery of Art Color television & commercial television Hammetts The Maltese Falcon & The Thin Man The Star Spangled Banner as the US national anthem The George Washington Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover/Boulder Dam, Heathrow & JFK airports Jet airplanes, helicopters, & US Navy aircraft carriers Baseball all-star games (1933) & the Baseball Hall of Fame Social Security (1935), minimum wages for women, & the 40-hour work week Life magazine, Nylon, the ballpoint pen, electronic computers, transistors, chips, & magnetic recording tape Withholding income taxes, the atomic bomb & guided missiles The United Nations, NATO, & the Pentagon

The Whole Story

OR/OA are old Combat analyst was first; some work was at Hq Early: weapons, transport, communications (things) Later tactics, concepts of operation, organization Dominance of Hq analysis
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From the Dawn of War and Science

Diades (c. 330 BCE) Archimedes (213-211 BCE) Bacon (1248) Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) Niccol Tartaglia (1500-1557) John Napier (1550-1617) Benjamin Franklin (1775) US Civil War (balloon) The Great War (CW, tank)
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What Was The Beginning?

WW II? WW I? Diades? Archimedes? 20th Century OR authors
Morse & Kimball, 1950 Hillier & Lieberman, 1967 Wagner, 1975
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Operational Science The Great War

Lanchester
The Equations: Bah! Humbug! Aircraft in Warfare, 1912-1916

Edison
Naval Consulting Board >40 ideas: no impact

George Patton, Jr.

No combat experience Casualty potential of rifle ammunition

A. V. Hill
Anti-aircraft gunnery, 1914-18
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Many Men and Women

Benito Mussolini Winston Churchill Marconi F. A. Lindemann A. V. Hill Adolf Hitler Chamberlain H. E. Wimperis A. P. Rowe Robert Watson-Watt

European Situation Early 1930s

Sep 1930 Jan 1933 Mar 1933 Aug 1934 Mar 1935 Nazis become second largest political party in Germany Hitler becomes Chancellor Hitler becomes Dictator Hitler becomes Fuhrer Hitler introduces military conscription
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The British Cause for Alarm

Trends not going well in Europe Germany is rattling swords Germany is building a bomber fleet The bomber always gets through
Stanley Baldwin, 10 Nov 1932

Limited resources for defense Cities in England are: High density population centers High density industrial centers
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Home Land Defense

European shoreline 1,044 miles Total shoreline 2,275 miles Kill/Defend Box 300 x 600 miles Channel Distances 20 - 250 miles

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The Committee for the Scientific Study of Air Defense

H. E. Wimperis: Scientific Advisor Air Ministry

A. P. Rowe: Research Scientist Secretary

Mission To consider how far advances in scientific and technical knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defense against hostile aircraft

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Criteria for Committee Selection

Have recognition as an eminent scientist Be of strong character Have capacity for making decisions Have natural sympathy for and identification with, military men Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists
E. V. Appleton--Greatest English expert on propagation of Radio Waves
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The Tizard Committee

Lord P. M. S. Blackett 1948 Nobel Prize Physics

Sir A. V. Hill 1922 Nobel Prize Medicine

Radical (Anti-fascist) Naval Officer

Conservative (Establishment) Military Pilot 28 Jan 1935

Orthodox (Conservative) Army Officer Anti-Aircraft Gunnery

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Sir Henry T. Tizard 1885-1959

Education: Westminster & Oxford (Rutherfords Student) Fellow of the Royal Society (Physics) Secretary, Dept of Scientific & Industrial Research Rector, Imperial College of Science and Technology (1929) Chairman of the Tizard Committee (28 Jan 1935)

The best scientific mind that England ever applied ... to war
C. P. Snow, Science and Government, 1960
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P. M. S. Blackett (1897-1974) (Patrick Maynard Stuart)

Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 for research in cosmic rays Professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science and Technology of the University of London (1953-65). Author, Atomic Weapons and East-West Relations (1956) and Studies of War (1962)

The British father of Operations Research

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An Inquiry to Science
From: Air Ministry To: The (National Physical Laboratory)
Is it possible to create some form of death ray using a radio beam to disable remote targets?

From: The Radio Research Lab (National Physical Laboratory) To: Air Ministry
No, but we may be able to detect aircraft using radio methods
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Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists

Professor Tizard

Air Marshal Dowding

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The Pairing of Teams

Bawdsey Station (radar research and testing)
Scientists & engineers Serving officers Finding blips on the screen

Biggin Hill Experiment (Fighter Intercept)

Serving officers Scientists & engineers Finding the target Voice from the Box Tizzy Equations Fighter Command OR Section

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Chain Home Radar (1935)

Air Ministry Experimental Stations (AMES 1)

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Early Command & Control

Operations in the Filter Room (plotting, filtering, telling)

Operational Control at Fighter Command

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Situation of the Late 1930s

Mar 1936 May 1936 Germany takes Rhineland Mussolini takes Ethiopia

Sep 1938 Oct 1938 Mar 1939 Sep 1939

Hitler appeased at Munich Germany takes Sudetenland Germany takes Czech. Germany takes Poland

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Improvements in Defense (1939)

20 Stations RAF trained at Bawdsey station See A/C 15,000, 100 miles Fighter intercept from Biggin Hill Chain Home Low Airborne Radar
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Combat Air Strengths, Summer 1939

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Results of the Tizard Committee

Determined the range, bearing, and elevation of noncooperative targets Provided friendly signal marks for our own aircraft Introduced concept of information fusion and ground control intercept Gave aircraft the ability to hunt in black space Made possible submarine detection at night Intro blind navigation, provided magic eye for A/C Improved accuracy for air defense weapons Created the radio fuze Made effective use of the fighter force (Battle of Britain, beginning 10 July 1940)
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London

Paid a terrible price

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Results of the Battle of Britain

1,733

915
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Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett (1897-1974)

WWI Battles Falkand Island Jutland

Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 of Operations Research The British Father (cosmic rays)

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Operational Research
Scientists at the Operational Level
very many war operations involve considerations with which scientists are specially trained to compete, and in which serving officers are in general not trained.

Note on Certain Aspects of the Methodology of Operational Research

In the course of repeated operations most of the possible variations of tactics will be effectively explored ... derivatives will eventually be discovered and ... improved tactics will become generally adopted.
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Blacketts Influence at Bomber Command

Limited # bombers Land bombing Against submarines Confrontation

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Coastal Command Analyses

Open Research on Targets Weapons Tactics Equipment Short Sunderland Strategy Effectiveness of Air Attacks
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Blacketts Circus (10) at Anti Aircraft Command

Three physiologists Two mathematicians One Army officer Two mathematical physicists One surveyor One general physicist
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Contributions to Anti Aircraft Command

Gun-Laying Radar Apportionment Maintenance Training Togetherness Effectiveness

London

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P. M. S. Blacketts OR Thoughts
For Military--you have to think scientifically about your own operations For Scientists--sound military advice only comes when the giver convinces himself that if he were responsible for action, he would act so himself
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Scope of Operational Research

Clearest lessons of war experience
really big successes of operational research groups are often achieved by the discovery of problems which had not hitherto been recognized as significant.

Recollections of Problems Studied

How can OR help
Operations research groups can help to close the gap between the new instrument or weapons as developed in the R&D establishments and its use in the actual conditions of war.
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Birthing in the US
Mine Warfare ORG
Degaussing @ Pearl, 7 Dec 41 Wargaming Mine-laying

Anti-Submarine Warfare ORG

Early emphasis on Atlantic

Army Air Forces OA

26 Sections 250 analysts

Office of Field Service, OSRD

Emphasis on Pacific Operation Starvation
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Adoption of OR by US Forces
Navy was first MAJ Leach, AAF Hap Arnold AAF Eighth Air Force
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First AAF OA Section

8th Bomber Command, Oct 42 Chief: John Harlan Others: Arps, Alexander, Tuttle, Youden, Robertson Reported to Gen Eaker Worked for CoS Access to all information How can I put twice as many bombs on my targets?
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Some Projects & Accomplishments

Improved bombs on target Bomb on lead bombardier Radar countermeasures Improved estimates of force requirements Position Firing for aerial gunners Stabilization of dust on African air fields Operation STARVATION
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Bombing Tactics

Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the best technique?
Technique On Group Leader On Squadron Leader Independent Percent
DMPI

1000 40

Bombing Tactics

Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the best technique?
Technique On Group Leader 24 % On Squadron Leader Independent 11.8 % Percent
DMPI

1000 41

8.3 %

9th Army Air Force

Nick Smith, junior analyst Rail cutting algorithm No Ball targets

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Analysts Notebook

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Notes

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More Notes

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No More Notes (after this one)

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Some Results of Rail Cutting: Impact on Overlord

2nd SS Panzer Division: 17 days/450 miles Battle Group, 275th Infantry Division: 3 days/30 miles + 3 more days to reach front 2 Infantry Battalions arrived on bicycles
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Shipbuilding : Merchant Ships or Escort Ships

Problem: Increase movement of war time supplies: limited shipbuilding capacity Question: Build more merchant or more escort ships

Each escort ship saves 2 to 3 merchant ships per year Faster convoy speed decreases convoy losses Increased convoy size decreases ship losses significantly Air escort protection decreases submarine effectiveness
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Operation Starvation, 1945

LCDR Ellis Johnson, MWORG: Mines are Weapons of Strategy ADM Nimitz & MG LeMay (21st Bomber Command) 21,000 sea mines laid; 4323 sorties 5.7% of B-29 sorties 961 Japanese ships damaged or sunk (2 million tons)
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US Successes
Operations Research
Navy Navy Army Air Force Army Air Force Army Army

Convoy Protection Submarine Search Denial of Sea Lanes

Operations Operations Research Research Group Group

Bomb Accuracy Bomb Selection

Jungle Warfare Amphibious Opns Artillery Accuracy

Surface Ship Detection Pursuit Tactics

Radar Employment Ballistics

Operations Operations Analysis Analysis Sections Sections Individual Individual Analysts Analysts OSRD OSRD

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Immediate Post WWII

Operations Evaluation Group (OEG)
WWII continuity

The RAND Corporation

Defense of the nation Siting of air bases

The Johns Hopkins University Operations Research Office

The Army in the field Korea

HQ, USAF Operations Analysis Weapons System Evaluation Group

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Combat Analyst After World War II

Korea
ORO + Canadian + UK OEG (the fleets)

Vietnam
Army Concept Team ARCOV MACOV
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Other Early Institutions

Private sector (for profit)
Technical Operations, Inc. Arthur D. Little, Inc. Melpar, Inc. Ramo-Wooldridge Corp. Lockheed The Johns Hopkins University Case Institute of Technology MIT ...
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Universities

The Combat Analyst Since Vietnam

Gulf War
CENTCOM Hq team (staff) DNA WMD effects team No US operations analysts deployed until after the fighting 1st UK Armoured Div OR team

Former Yugoslavia
ARRC UK team
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What OR Analysts Do
E. C. Williams

Determine the operational effectiveness of weapons and equipment Analyze the results of operations or exercises to determine the effectiveness of tactics, the influence of weapons on tactics and the tactics on weapons Predict the results of future operations Analyze the efficiency of organizations or methods
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Characteristic of Outstanding Military Operations Research Analysts

Has historical, tactical, and technical expertise Is an outstanding gatherer, coordinator, and gifted speaker Has potent mathematical, logic, & Operations Research skills Uses superb imagination, graphic and artistic skills Demonstrates overwhelming quantities of persistence and determination Likes to drink beer (especially Guinness Stout) Happiness is being assigned as an Operations Happiness is being assigned as an Operations Research Analyst Research Analyst

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Operations Research

Sir Henry Tizard and General Sir Bernard Montgomery

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The Three DUSA(OR)s

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Some of the Trails

Wayne P. Hughes, Jr, ed, Military Modeling for Decisions, Military
Operations Research Society, 1997 Philip M. Morse & George E. Kimball, Methods of Operations Research, Military Operations Research Society, 1998 (reprint) James Pinney Baxter III, Scientists Against Time, Little, Brown & Company, 1948 R. V. Jones, The Wizard War, Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1978 Charles P. Snow, Science and Government, Harvard University Press, 1961 P. M.S. Blackett , Studies of War. Nuclear and Conventional, Hill &Wang, 1962 Ronald W. Clark, Tizard. The MIT Press, 1963 David Zimmerman, Top Secret Exchange, The Tizard Mission and the Scientific War, McGill-Queens University Press, 1996
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More of the Trails

Ronald W. Clark, The Rise of the Boffins. Phoenix House LTD,1962 Air Ministry. Origins and Development of Operational Research in the Royal Air Force. Her Majesty s Stationary Office,1949 A. P. Rowe, One Story of Radar. Cambridge University Press, 1948 J. G. Crowther, Statesmen of Science, The Cresset Press, 1965 Keith R. Tidman, The Operations Evaluation Group: A History of Naval Operations Analysis, Naval Institute, 1984 Bernard Osgood Koopman, Search and Screening: General Principles with Historical Applications, Military Operations Research Society, 1946 (reprint ) Charles M. Sternhell & Alan M. Thorndike, Antisubmarine Warfare in World War II, Aegean Park Press, 1947 (reprint) J. G. Crowther & R. Whiddington, Science at War, Philosophical Library Inc., 1948 Charles R. Shrader, History of Operations Research in the United States Army: Volume I: 1942-1962; Volume II: 1961-1973; Volume III: 1973-1995, 60 Government Printing Office

Comments and Query

US analysts now seen as needed in the field: Iraq & Afghanistan What we do now does not resemble what they did then! Either what we do now is not operations research or operations research is defined so loosely than any logical analytic process is operations research! What do you think is the correct answer?
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Some Homilies
I think the essential prerequisite of sound military advice is that the giver must convince himself that if he were responsible for action, he would himself act so. The first thing is to realize in war we have to do not so much with numbers, arms and maneuvers, as with human nature.

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Finally
Read, specially military history. Have fun at what you do. What to read?
C. P. Snow Blackett Neustadt & May John Keegan Ernest & Trevor Dupuy S. L. A. Marshall McCloskey & Trefethen McCloskey & Coppinger McCue Anything on nonlinearity, etc.

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Thanks for Listening

Those of you who stayed awake may have learned something new Those of you who dozed off didnt miss much Stay awake for the second show!
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The Partys Over

The second show starts now!

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