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An Introduction To SPC

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An Introduction to Control Charts

Basic Conceptions
What is a control chart? The control chart is a graph used to study how a process changes over time. Data are plotted in time order. A control chart always has a central line for the average, an upper line for the upper control limit and a lower line for the lower control limit. Lines are determined from historical data. By comparing current data to these lines, you can draw conclusions about whether the process variation is consistent (in control) or is unpredictable (out of control, affected by special causes of variation).

Basic Conceptions
When to use a control chart? Controlling ongoing processes by finding and correcting problems as they occur. Predicting the expected range of outcomes from a process. Determining whether a process is stable (in statistical control). Analyzing patterns of process variation from special causes (non-routine events) or common causes (built into the process). Determining whether the quality improvement project should aim to prevent specific problems or to make fundamental changes to the process.

Basic Conceptions
Control Chart Basic Procedure Choose the appropriate control chart for the data. Determine the appropriate time period for collecting and plotting data. Collect data, construct the chart and analyze the data. Look for out-of-control signals on the control chart. When one is identified, mark it on the chart and investigate the cause. Document how you investigated, what you learned, the cause and how it was corrected. Continue to plot data as they are generated. As each new data point is plotted, check for new outof-control signals.

Basic Principles
Basic components of control charts A centerline, usually the mathematical average of all the samples plotted; Lower and upper control limits defining the constraints of common cause variations; Performance data plotted over time.

Basic Principles
General model for a control chart UCL = + k CL = LCL = k
where is the mean of the variable, and is the standard deviation of the variable. UCL=upper control limit; LCL = lower control limit; CL = center line. where k is the distance of the control limits from the center line, expressed in terms of standard deviation units. When k is set to 3, we speak of 3-sigma control charts. Historically, k = 3 has become an accepted standard in industry.

Basic Principles of Control Charts Types of the control charts

Variables control charts Variable data are measured on a continuous scale. For example: time, weight, distance or temperature can be measured in fractions or decimals. Applied to data with continuous distribution Attributes control charts Attribute data are counted and cannot have fractions or decimals. Attribute data arise when you are determining only the presence or absence of something: success or failure, accept or reject, correct or not correct. For example, a report can have four errors or five errors, but it cannot have four and a half errors. Applied to data following discrete distribution

Basic Principles of Control Charts

Variables control charts

X-bar

and R chart (also called averages and range chart) X-bar and s chart

An Introduction to Process capability

Basic Principles of Control Charts

Have you ever

Shot a rifle? Played darts? Played basketball? Shot a round of golf?

What is the point of these sports? What makes them hard?

Basic Principles of Control Charts

Have you ever Shot a rifle? Played darts? Shot a round of golf? Played basketball?

Emmett

Jake

Who is the better shot?

Discussion

What do you measure in your process? Why do those measures matter? Are those measures consistently the same? Why not?

Variability
8 7 10 8 9
Emmett

Deviation = distance between observations and the mean (or average)

Observations 9 Deviations

10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 9 8.4 = 0.6

8 8 8.4 = -0.4 8 8 8.4 = -0.4 7 7 8.4 = -1.4 averages 8.4

Jake

0.0

Variability

Deviation = distance between observations and the mean (or average)

Observations Deviations 7 6.6 = 0.4

Emmett

7
7 7

7 6.6 = 0.4
7 6.6 = 0.4

6 6 6.6 = -0.6 6 6 6.6 = -0.6 averages 6.6

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

0.0

Variability
8 7 10 8 9
Emmett

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations 9 Deviations Squared Deviations 2.56

10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 9 8.4 = 0.6

8 8 8.4 = -0.4 8 8 8.4 = -0.4 7 7 8.4 = -1.4 averages 8.4

0.36
0.16 0.16 1.96

Jake

0.0

1.0

Variance

Variability

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations Deviations Squared Deviations

Emmett

7
7 7 6 6 averages

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

Variability

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations Deviations 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 Squared Deviations 0.16 0.16

Emmett

7
7 7

7 - 6.6 = 0.4
7 - 6.6 = 0.4

0.16
0.36 0.36 0.24

6 6 6.6 = -0.6 6 6 6.6 = -0.6 averages 6.6

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

0.0

Variance

Variability

Standard deviation = square root of variance

Variance Standard Deviation 1.0 0.4898979

Emmett

Emmett Jake

1.0 0.24

Jake

But what good is a standard deviation

Variability

The world tends to be bell-shaped

Even very rare outcomes are possible (probability > 0)

Fewer in the tails (lower)

Most outcomes occur in the middle

Fewer in the tails (upper)

Even very rare outcomes are possible (probability > 0)

Variability

Here is why:

Even outcomes that are equally likely (like dice), when you add them up, become bell shaped
Add up the dots on the dice

0.2

Probability

0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sum of dots

1 die 2 dice 3 dice

Normal bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things and you start to be normal Normal distributions are divide up into 3 standard deviations on each side of the mean Once your that, you know a lot about what is going on

And that is what a standard deviation is good for

Usual or unusual?

1. One observation falls outside 3 standard deviations? 2. One observation falls in zone A? 3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in one zone A? 4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in one zone B or beyond? 5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in one zone B or beyond? 6. 8 consecutive points above the mean, rising, or falling?

XX X 34 56 X1 X XX 2 X

78

Causes of Variability

Common Causes:
Random variation (usual) No pattern Inherent in process

adjusting

the process increases its variation

(unusual)

Special Causes
Non-random variation May exhibit a pattern

Assignable, explainable, controllable adjusting the process decreases its variation

SPC uses samples to identify that special causes have occurred

Limits

Process and Control limits:

Statistical Process

limits are used for individual items Control limits are used with averages Limits = 3 Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special causes)

Specification limits:
Engineered

= target tolerance Define acceptable & unacceptable

Limits

Process vs. control limits

Distribution of averages Control limits Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals Process limits

Usual v. Unusual, Acceptable v. Defective

C Target

More about limits

Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1)

target

target

Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)

Cpk measures Process Capability

If process limits and control limits are at the same location, Cpk = 1. Cpk 2 is exceptional.

Process capability

Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1) Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)
Cpk = min
= USL x = 24 20 = .667 3 3(2) = x - LSL = 20 15 = .833 3 3(2)

14

15

20

24

26

= = 3 = (UPL x, or x LPL)

Going out of control

When an observation is unusual, what can we conclude?

The mean has changed

Going out of control

When an observation is unusual, what can we conclude?

1 2

The standard deviation has changed

Setting up control charts:

Calculating the limits

1.
2. 3. 4. 5.

6.
7. 8.

Sample n items (often 4 or 5) Find the mean of the sample x (x-bar) Find the range of the sample R Plot x on the x chart Plot the R on an R chart Repeat steps 1-5 thirty times Average the xs to create x (x-bar-bar) Average the Rs to create R (R-bar)

Setting up control charts:

Calculating the limits

9.
10.

Find A2 on table (A2 times R estimates 3) Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X A2 R

11.

Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL D3 R

UCL D4 R

Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 observation 1 observation 2 7 7

smpl 2 11 8

smpl 3 6 10

smpl 4 7 8

smpl 5 10 5

smpl 6 10 5

observation 3
x-bar R

10

12

X-bar chart UCL Centerline LCL

R chart

Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 observation 1 observation 2 7 7

smpl 2 11 8

smpl 3 6 10

smpl 4 7 8

smpl 5 10 5

smpl 6 10 5

Avg.

observation 3
X-bar R 7.3333 1

8
3

10
9.6667 6

12
9.3333 7.3333 1

7
7 5

6
7.6667 5

8
8.0556 3.5

X-bar chart UCL 11.6361 8.0556 4.4751

R chart 9.0125 3.5 0

Centerline
LCL

X-bar chart

14.0000 12.0000 10.0000 8.0000 6.0000 4.0000 2.0000 0.0000 1 2 3 4 5 6

11.6361 8.0556 4.4751

R chart

10
9.0125

8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 3.5

Interpreting charts

Observations outside control limits indicate the process is probably out-ofcontrol Significant patterns in the observations indicate the process is probably out-ofcontrol Random causes will on rare occasions indicate the process is probably out-ofcontrol when it actually is not

Interpreting charts

In the excel spreadsheet, look for these shifts:

A B

Show real time examples of charts here

Lots of other charts exist

P chart For yes-no questions like is it defective? (binomial data)

C charts For counting number defects where most items have 1 defects (eg. custom built houses)

U charts Average count per unit (similar to C chart)

Cusum & EWMA Advanced charts

p (1 p ) p3 n

c 3 c

u u 3 n

V shaped or Curved control limits (calculate them by hiring a statistician)

Selecting rational samples

Chosen so that variation within the sample is considered to be from common causes Special causes should only occur between samples Special causes to avoid in sampling
passage workers shifts

of time

machines Locations

Chart advice

Larger samples are more accurate Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control Dont convert measurement data to yes/no binomial data (Xs to Ps) Not all out-of control points are bad Dont combine data (or mix product) Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?) Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)

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