Martin Williams Director, Bisham Consulting

Scope & definition

Container movements only
Short sea shipping in N Europe Small ports market place Bulk

Cars Forestry Coal etc RoRo Intra-European containers Feeder operations

The Big Questions

Can we persuade shippers to move from road to sea?

Can we win business away from the main ports?

Times, they are achanging

Bunker prices
World trade Recession Mega carriers Port congestion

You cant buck the market, can you?

Supply & Demand

1400 container vessels on order
6.9m teu 58% of the current fleet Of these 194 vessels > 10,000teu Recent trade forecasts halved

What will happen to the excess tonnage?

UK leading ports
Grimsby & Immingham 66.3 Mt London Tees and Hartlepool Southampton Forth 52.7 Mt 49.8 Mt 43.8 Mt 36.7 Mt
Felixstowe, the leading container port, handled 2.1 million containers (3.3 million TEU), a 10 per cent increase on 2006. Phase 1 of the London Gateway = 1.7m

Major N European ports

Rotterdam 10.8m teu
Hamburg 9.9m Antwerp 8.2m Bremerhaven 4.9m Felixstowe - 3.3m

compared to the world.......

Major world-wide ports

Singapore 27.9m teu
Shanghai 26.2m Hong Kong 24.0m Shenzen 21.1m Busan 13.3m

Felixstowe is not in the Top Twenty! 7 are in China

Move from road to sea

Fuel costs Road tolls WTD Congestion Environmental Driver shortages Governmental support
So short sea operators are well positioned, arent they?

Well.......
Short sea operators are at the bottom of the food chain
New sulphur limits agreed at the International

Maritime Organization Government support? Not necessarily cheaper Port hinterland/access road/rail Customer reluctance

Winning business from the main ports

Deepsea operators are reducing main line ports hub

concept Deepsea operators do their own feedering Existing networks are well established with significant investment (terminals and road/rail connections) Trend increasing for deepsea operators to own their own terminals Most deepsea operators have no interest in setting up in new ports

Some examples
Maersk 7 Asia/N. Europe services

calling Rotterdam (6), Bremerhaven (4) Fstowe (3), Hamburg (3), Le Havre (2) Zeebrugge (2)
Evergreen 3 Asia/N. Europe services

calling at Rotterdam (3), Hamburg (2),Le Havre(2) Bremerhaven, Thamesport , Fstowe, Ston & Zeebrugge (1) calling at Fstowe/Rotterdam/Antwerp or Le Havre/Hamburg/Bremerhaven

Mediterranean Shipping 2 Asia/N. Europe services

Significant Investment
Terminal
ECT Euromax London Gateway Northern Gateway

Capacity pa
2.3m teu 3.5m teu 1.5m teu

Cost
$550m $2700m $539m

Conclusions
Short sea trade volumes will increase but largely as a

result of trade growth EU moves to develop Motorways of the Sea will be limited Short sea operators may loose out to the deepsea operators Global recession may have a major impact on the viability of some carriers UK particularly requires significant investment in road/rail port access

Conclusions
Demand for port based logistics/distribution centres

will grow Small ports can only challenge the main ports if the importers lead the charge, but who will cover the investment and will the deepsea carriers follow? In the short term port congestion will disappear and this will help the status quo

Channel Tunnel
Channel Tunnel freight services have failed to meet initial expectations. Rail freight on through services has declined by 45 per cent since 2000. In 2006 1.6 million tonnes of rail freight were carried on the Channel Tunnel The amount of road freight carried through the tunnel has risen by 16 per cent from 14.7 to 17 million tonnes over the last five years