Long term wave statistics

Distributions of
significant wave heights
peak periods
mean wave directions
etc

Extreme value analysis
individual wave height statistics
within a given sea state
Sources of data
Measurements (often proprietary)
Buoys
Remote sensing systems
Wave staffs
Hindcast (Norwegian Metorological Institute)
Computation of winds and waves in the past based
on weather obseservations.
Specific sites
Every 6 hours (typically)
Table 3. Long
term wave
statistics table

Above:
Significant wave
height H
m02

Below:
Average period
T
m02
.
Figure 32.
Scatter plot of
Hmo and Tp .
Joint occurrence table of Hm0 and Tm02.
Joint occurrence table for wave height and wave direction.
The graph shows the actual
variation over a winter season for

H
m0
, T
p


and the wave direction at Tp, u
p
.

The solid lines are
measurements and the dotted
line are daily numerical
predictions carried out by a
numerical wave model run by the
Norwegian Meteorological
Institute.

The purpose of long term
statistics is to extract and
compress the information in such
recordings in the best possible
way!
Joint occurrence table of Hm0 and wind speed (WS).
Table 7.
Significant wave
height statistics
table for Weibull
plotting.

Class
Interva[
m]
Upper limit
[m]
n
i
En
i
F
e,j
(h) = Pr(H
m0

< h)
1
0.0 - 0.49 0.49 29 29 0.00800
2
0.5 - 0.99 0.99 158 187 0.05150
3
1.0 - 1.49 1.49 830 1017 0.28055
4
1.5 - 1.99 1.99 746 1763 0.48634
5
2.0 - 2.49 2.49 626 2389 0.65903
6
2.5 - 2.99 2.99 415 2804 0.77352
7
3.0 - 3.49 3.49 298 3102 0.85572
8
3.5 - 3.99 3.99 189 3291 0.90786
9
4.0 - 4.49 4.49 152 3443 0.94979
10
4.5 - 4.99 4.99 57 3500 0.96552
11
5.0 - 5.49 5.49 44 3544 0.97766
12
5.5 - 5.99 5.99 36 3580 0.98759
13
6.0 - 6.49 6.49 26 3606 0.99476
14
6.5 - 6.99 6.99 11 3617 0.99779
15
7.0 - 7.49 7.49 1 3618 0.99807
16
7.5 - 7.99 7.99 3 3621 0.99890
17
8.0 - 8.49 8.49 0 3621 0.99890
18
8.5 - 8.99 8.99 2 3623 0.99945
0
0
( )
1 exp
c
F h
h H
H H

| |
| |

|
=
|
|

\ .
\ .
: ln( ln(1 )) Y axis F
0
: ln( ) X axis H H
Weibull fitting of H
m0
0
0
( )
1 exp
c
F h
h H
H H

| |
| |

|
=
|
|

\ .
\ .
: ln( ln(1 )) Y axis F
0
: ln( ) X axis H H
Weibull fitting of H
m0

Pr(H
m0
< h)
0.00800
0.05150
0.28055
0.48634
0.65903
0.77352
0.85572
0.90786
0.94979
0.96552
0.97766
0.98759
0.99476
0.99779
0.99807
0.99890
0.99890
0.99945
Upper
limit [m]
0.49
0.99
1.49
1.99
2.49
2.99
3.49
3.99
4.49
4.99
5.49
5.99
6.49
6.99
7.49
7.99
8.49
8.99

Pr(H
m0
< h)
0.00800
0.05150
0.28055
0.48634
0.65903
0.77352
0.85572
0.90786
0.94979
0.96552
0.97766
0.98759
0.99476
0.99779
0.99807
0.99890
0.99890
0.99945
Upper
limit [m]
0.49
0.99
1.49
1.99
2.49
2.99
3.49
3.99
4.49
4.99
5.49
5.99
6.49
6.99
7.49
7.99
8.49
8.99
( )
0
0 0
0
Pr ( ) 1 exp ,
m
c
h H
H h F h h H
H H

| |
| |
| s = = >
|
|

\ .
\ .
| | ( )
0
0 0 0
1
E 1
m
H m c
H H H H

| |
= = + I +
|
\ .
( )
( )
0 0
2
2
2 2
0 0
2 1
E 1 1
m m
H m H c
H H H o

(
| | | |
(
= = I + I +
( | |
(

\ . \ .

( )
( )
0
3
3
3
3 0 0
3 1 2 1
E 1 3 1 1 2 1
m H c
H H H m m
g g g g



= - = - G + - G + G + + G +











Weibull distribution .
Estimation of
parameters by fitting the
statistical moments of
1., 2. and 3. order to
observed sets of H
m0
The return period
0,
1 ( )
p
p
m R
R
F H
t
=

0,
0,
Prob(exceeding the design value
only once in years)
1 ( )
p
p
m R
p
m R
p
H
R
F H
R
t
= =
is the average time between
each observation used
to establish the probability distributuion
t
t = 6hrs (H
0
=0.8 m)
R
50
= 50yr



0,50
6
( ) 1
50 365 24
1 0.0000134
0.999986
m
F H =

=
=
0,50
( )
m
F H
H
mo,50yr
H
0
=10.8 m
H
mo,50yr
= 11.6 m
The encounter probability
0,
1 ( )
p
p
m R
R
F H
t
=

( , ; ) is the probability
that the design level associated with a return period
will occur during a period of years
p
p
E Y R
R
Y
t
1 1
( , ; ) 1 1 1 1
/
p
p p
Y
Y
E Y R
R R
t
t
t
| | | |
= ~
| |
| |
\ . \ .
Percent chance of exceeding the return period design level during different time periods Y.
Distribution of maxima

1) What is the largest wave experienced for a given sea sate?

2) How do we use the answer of 1) when the sea state varies?

.


( ) ( )
max 1 2
Pr Pr , , ... ,
N
X x x X x X x s = s s s
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2
Pr Pr ...Pr
N
N X
X X X x X x F x = s s s =
( )
2
0
1 exp 2 ,
H
m
h
F h
H
| |
| |
| =
|
|
\ .
\ .
( )
max
2
max
0
( ) Pr 1 exp 2
N
H
m
h
F h H h
H
(
| |
| |
( | = < =
|
|
(
\ .
\ .

( ) ( )
max 0
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
| |
~ +
|
\ .
m
E H H N
N
Distribution of maxima

Question 1) What is the largest wave experienced for a given sea sate?

Consider the stochastic variable X and N independent outcomes of X: X
1
,...,X
N
.
Let X
max
be largest of X
1
,...,X
N
,
The statement that X
max
x is equivalent to that X
1
x, X
2
x,...,X
N
x.
By the assumption of independence:

where F
X
is the cumulative distribution function of X.

We recall that the wave heights in a sea state follow the Rayleigh distr.

the highest wave expected in a given sea sate
02
/ ( is the duration of the sea state)
m
N A T A =
Distribution of maxima

Question 2) How do we use the answer of 1) when the sea state varies??

Consider now a sea state "1" and a sea state "2".

Exactly as before

Pr(Hmax < h during both "1" and "2")

= Pr(Hmax < h during "1") Pr(Hmax < h during "2")






A
i
= N
i
T
m02

It is obvious how this generalises as a product involving several different sea states:





1 02 2 02
1 2
1 2
/ /
2 2
0 0
1 exp 2 1 exp 2
m m
A T A T
m m
h h
H H
( (
| | | |
| | | |
( ( | |
=
| |
| |
( ( | |
\ . \ .
\ . \ .

Distribution of maxima

:




( )
max
2
max
0
( | ) Pr 1 exp ( 2
ij
i
N
H ij
m
h
F h A H h
H
(
| |
(
= < = H
|
|
(
\ .

i

j
A = 7 years = 7 365 24 3600 s =220752000 s
Distribution of maxima

:




( )
max
2
max
0
( | ) Pr 1 exp ( 2
ij
i
N
H ij
m
h
F h A H h
H
(
| |
(
= < = H
|
|
(
\ .

Long term probability
for individual wave heights
based on several years of
measured (H,T ) and H
m0
at
an offshore site in Norwegian
waters.
Exercise 12.1
Find the expected maximum wave at a point in
the sea if Hm0 has been 1 m and Tm02 = 6 s
from the creation of the earth ( 410
9
years).
( ) ( )
( )
max 0
8
8
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
0, 57
1 ln6.7 10 / 2 3 m
8ln6.7 10
| |
~ +
|
\ .
| |
~ + ~
|

\ .
m
E H H N
N
Exercise 12.2
Two sea states, (H
m0
= 4 m, T
m02
= 10 s) and
(H
m0
= 8 m, T
m02
= 12 s), have both lasted for 12
hours. Determine the expected maximum wave
for the heaviest sea state and show that the
probability that a larger wave should have
occurred during the first sea state is vanishingly
small.
( ) ( )
max 0
0, 57
ln / 2
8ln
m
E H H N
N
| |
~ +
|
\ .
( )
max
2
max
0
( ) Pr 1 exp 2
(
| |
| |
( |
= < =
|
|
(
\ .
\ .

H
m
h
F h H h
H