Statistical Process Control

Operations Management
Dr. Ron Tibben-Lembke
Designed Size
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Natural Variation
14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5
Theoretical Basis of Control Charts
95.5% of allX
fall within 2o

Properties of normal distribution
= X
Theoretical Basis of Control Charts
Properties of normal distribution
99.7% of allX
fall within 3o

= X
Skewness
Lack of symmetry
Pearsons coefficient of
skewness:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Skewness = 0
Negative Skew < 0
Positive Skew > 0
s
Median x ) ( 3
Kurtosis
Amount of peakedness
or flatness
Kurtosis < 0
Kurtosis > 0
Kurtosis = 0 4
4
) (
ns
x x

=
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Design Tolerances
Design tolerance:
Determined by users needs
UTL -- Upper Tolerance Limit
LTL -- Lower Tolerance Limit
Eg: specified size +/- 0.005 inches
No connection between tolerance and o
completely unrelated to natural variation.
Process Capability and 6o
A capable process has UTL and LTL 3 or more
standard deviations away from the mean, or 3.
99.7% (or more) of product is acceptable to
customers
LTL UTL
3o 6o
LTL UTL
Process Capability
LTL UTL
LTL
UTL
Capable Not Capable
LTL UTL LTL UTL
Process Capability
Specs: 1.5 +/- 0.01
Mean: 1.505 Std. Dev. = 0.002
Are we in trouble?
Process Capability
Specs: 1.5 +/- 0.01
LTL = 1.5 0.01 = 1.49
UTL = 1.5 + 0.01 = 1.51
Mean: 1.505 Std. Dev. = 0.002
LCL = 1.505 - 3*0.002 = 1.499
UCL = 1.505 + 0.006 = 1.511
1.499
1.51 1.49 1.511
Process
Specs
Capability Index
Capability Index (C
pk
) will tell the position of
the control limits relative to the design
specifications.
C
pk
>= 1.0, process is capable
C
pk
< 1.0, process is not capable
Process Capability, C
pk
Tells how well parts
produced fit into specs





(

=
o o 3 3
min
X UTL
or
LTL X
C
pk
Process
Specs
3o 3o
LTL UTL
X
Process Capability
Tells how well parts produced fit into specs



For our example:


C
pk
= min[ 0.015/.006, 0.005/0.006]
C
pk
= min[2.5,0.833] = 0.833 < 1 Process not capable
(

=
o o 3 3
min
X UTL
or
LTL X
C
pk
(

=
006 . 0
505 . 1 51 . 1
006 . 0
49 . 1 505 . 1
min or C
pk
Process Capability: Re-centered
If process were properly centered
Specs: 1.5 +/- 0.01
LTL = 1.5 0.01 = 1.49
UTL = 1.5 + 0.01 = 1.51
Mean: 1.5 Std. Dev. = 0.002
LCL = 1.5 - 3*0.002 = 1.494
UCL = 1.5 + 0.006 = 1.506
1.494 1.51 1.49 1.506
Process
Specs
If re-centered, it would be Capable
1.494 1.51 1.49 1.506
Process
Specs
67 . 1
006 . 0
01 . 0
,
006 . 0
01 . 0
min
006 . 0
5 . 1 51 . 1
,
006 . 0
49 . 1 5 . 1
min
=
)
`

=
)
`

=
pk
pk
C
C
Packaged Goods
What are the Tolerance Levels?
What we have to do to measure capability?
What are the sources of variability?
Production Process
Make Candy
Package Put in big bags
Make Candy
Make Candy
Make Candy
Make Candy
Make Candy
Mix
Mix %
Candy irregularity
Wrong wt. Wrong wt.
Processes Involved
Candy Manufacturing:
Are M&Ms uniform size & weight?
Should be easier with plain than peanut
Percentage of broken items (probably from printing)
Mixing:
Is proper color mix in each bag?
Individual packages:
Are same # put in each package?
Is same weight put in each package?
Large bags:
Are same number of packages put in each bag?
Is same weight put in each bag?
Your Job
Write down package #
Weigh package and candies, all together, in grams and
ounces
Write down weights on form
Optional:
Open package, count total # candies
Count # of each color
Write down
Eat candies
Turn in form and empty complete wrappers for
weighing
The effects of rounding
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5
Original Weight in grams
R
o
u
n
d
e
d

W
e
i
g
h
t

-

g
r
a
m
s
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
R
o
u
n
d
e
d

W
e
i
g
h
t

-

O
u
n
c
e
s
g - rounded
oz - rounded
0.7 Ounces
20 grams
0.6 Ounces
19 grams
18 grams
21 grams
Peanut Color Mix
website
Brown 17.7% 20%
Yellow 8.2% 20%
Red 9.5% 20%
Blue 15.4% 20%
Orange 26.4% 10%
Green 22.7% 10%
Class website
Brown 12.1% 30%
Yellow 14.7% 20%
Red 11.4% 20%
Blue 19.5% 10%
Orange 21.2% 10%
Green 21.2% 10%
Plain Color Mix
So who cares?
Dept. of Commerce
National Institutes of Standards & Technology
NIST Handbook 133
Fair Packaging and Labeling Act
Acceptable?


Package Weight
Not Labeled for Individual Retail Sale
If individual is 18g
MAV is 10% = 1.8g
Nothing can be below 18g 1.8g = 16.2g
Goal of Control Charts
collect and present data visually
allow us to see when trend appears
see when out of control point occurs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Process Control Charts
Graph of sample data plotted over time
UCL
LCL
Process
Average
3o
Time
X
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Process Control Charts
Graph of sample data plotted over time
Assignable
Cause
Variation
Natural
Variation
UCL
LCL
Time
X
Definitions of Out of Control
1. No points outside control limits
2. Same number above & below center line
3. Points seem to fall randomly above and
below center line
4. Most are near the center line, only a few are
close to control limits
1. 8 Consecutive pts on one side of centerline
2. 2 of 3 points in outer third
3. 4 of 5 in outer two-thirds region
Attributes vs. Variables
Attributes:
Good / bad, works / doesnt
count % bad (P chart)
count # defects / item (C chart)
Variables:
measure length, weight, temperature (x-bar
chart)
measure variability in length (R chart)
Attribute Control Charts
Tell us whether points in tolerance or not
p chart: percentage with given characteristic
(usually whether defective or not)
np chart: number of units with characteristic
c chart: count # of occurrences in a fixed area of
opportunity (defects per car)
u chart: # of events in a changeable area of
opportunity (sq. yards of paper drawn from a
machine)
p Chart Control Limits
# Defective
Items in
Sample i
Sample i
Size

UCL
p
= p + z
p 1 p
( )
n

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

p Chart Control Limits

# Defective
Items in
Sample i
Sample i
Size
z = 2 for
95.5% limits;
z = 3 for
99.7% limits
# Samples
( )
n
p p
z p UCL
p

+ =
1

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k
p Chart Control Limits
# Defective
Items in
Sample i
# Samples
Sample i
Size
z = 2 for
95.5% limits;
z = 3 for
99.7% limits
( )
n
p p
z p UCL
p

+ =
1
( )
n
p p
z p LCL
p

=
1

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

p Chart Example
Youre manager of a 500-
room hotel. You want to
achieve the highest level
of service. For 7 days,
you collect data on the
readiness of 200 rooms. Is
the process in control (use
z = 3)?
1995 Corel Corp.
p Chart Hotel Data
No. No. Not
Day Rooms Ready Proportion
1 200 16 16/200 = .080
2 200 7 .035
3 200 21 .105
4 200 17 .085
5 200 25 .125
6 200 19 .095
7 200 16 .080
p Chart Control Limits

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k
=
1400
7
= 200
p Chart Control Limits
16 + 7 +...+ 16

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

=
121
1400
= 0.0864

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k
=
1400
7
= 200
p Chart Solution
16 + 7 +...+ 16

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

=
121
1400
= 0.0864

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k
=
1400
7
= 200

p z
p 1 p
( )
n
= 0.0864 3
0.0864 10.0864
( )
200
p Chart Solution
16 + 7 +...+ 16

p z
p 1 p
( )
n
= 0.0864 3
0.0864 10.0864
( )
200

= 0.0864 3*0.01984 = 0.0864 0.01984
= 0.1460, and 0.0268

p =
X
i
i=1
k

n
i
i=1
k

=
121
1400
= 0.0864

n =
n
i
i=1
k

k
=
1400
7
= 200
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P
Day
p Chart
UCL
LCL
R Chart
Type of variables control chart
Interval or ratio scaled numerical data
Shows sample ranges over time
Difference between smallest & largest values
in inspection sample
Monitors variability in process
Example: Weigh samples of coffee &
compute ranges of samples; Plot
Youre manager of a 500-
room hotel. You want to
analyze the time it takes to
deliver luggage to the room.
For 7 days, you collect data
on 5 deliveries per day. Is
the process in control?
Hotel Example

Hotel Data
Day Delivery Time
1 7.30 4.20 6.10 3.45 5.55
2 4.60 8.70 7.60 4.43 7.62
3 5.98 2.92 6.20 4.20 5.10
4 7.20 5.10 5.19 6.80 4.21
5 4.00 4.50 5.50 1.89 4.46
6 10.10 8.10 6.50 5.06 6.94
7 6.77 5.08 5.90 6.90 9.30
R &X Chart Hotel Data
Sample
Day Delivery Time Mean Range
1 7.30 4.20 6.10 3.45 5.55 5.32

7.30 + 4.20 + 6.10 + 3.45 + 5.55
5
Sample Mean =
R &X Chart Hotel Data
Sample
Day Delivery Time Mean Range
1 7.30 4.20 6.10 3.45 5.55 5.32 3.85

7.30 - 3.45 Sample Range =
Largest Smallest
R &X Chart Hotel Data
Sample
Day Delivery Time Mean Range
1 7.30 4.20 6.10 3.45 5.55 5.32 3.85
2 4.60 8.70 7.60 4.43 7.62 6.59 4.27
3 5.98 2.92 6.20 4.20 5.10 4.88 3.28
4 7.20 5.10 5.19 6.80 4.21 5.70 2.99
5 4.00 4.50 5.50 1.89 4.46 4.07 3.61
6 10.10 8.10 6.50 5.06 6.94 7.34 5.04
7 6.77 5.08 5.90 6.90 9.30 6.79 4.22
R Chart Control Limits
UCL D R
LCL D R
R
R
k
R
R
i
i
k
=
=
=
=

4
3
1
Sample Range
at Time i
# Samples
From Exhibit 6.13
Control Chart Limits
n A
2
D
3
D
4
2 1.88 0 3.278
3 1.02 0 2.57
4 0.73 0 2.28
5 0.58 0 2.11
6 0.48 0 2.00
7 0.42 0.08 1.92
R
R Chart Control Limits
R
k
i
i
k
= =
+ + +
=
= 1
3 85 4 27 4 22
7
3 894
. . .
.

R Chart Solution
From 6.13
(n = 5)
R
R
k
UCL D R
LCL D R
i
i
k
R
R
= =
+ + +
=
= = =
= = =
= 1
4
3
3 85 4 27 4 22
7
3 894
(2.11) (3.894) 8 232
(0) (3.894) 0
. . .
.
.

0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
R, Minutes
Day
R Chart Solution
UCL
X Chart Control Limits
k
R
R
k
X
X
R A X UCL
k
i
i
k
i
i
X

= =
= =
+ =
1 1
2

Sample
Range
at Time i
# Samples
Sample
Mean at
Time i
X Chart Control Limits
UCL X A R
LCL X A R
X
X
k
R
R
k
X
X
i
i
k
i
i
k
= +
=
= =
= =
2
2
1 1

From
Table 6-13
X Chart Control Limits
UCL X A R
LCL X A R
X
X
k
R
R
k
X
X
i
i
k
i
i
k
= +
=
= =
= =
2
2
1 1

Sample
Range
at Time i
# Samples
Sample
Mean at
Time i
From 6.13
Exhibit 6.13 Limits
n A
2
D
3
D
4
2 1.88 0 3.278
3 1.02 0 2.57
4 0.73 0 2.28
5 0.58 0 2.11
6 0.48 0 2.00
7 0.42 0.08 1.92
R &X Chart Hotel Data
Sample
Day Delivery Time Mean Range
1 7.30 4.20 6.10 3.45 5.55 5.32 3.85
2 4.60 8.70 7.60 4.43 7.62 6.59 4.27
3 5.98 2.92 6.20 4.20 5.10 4.88 3.28
4 7.20 5.10 5.19 6.80 4.21 5.70 2.99
5 4.00 4.50 5.50 1.89 4.46 4.07 3.61
6 10.10 8.10 6.50 5.06 6.94 7.34 5.04
7 6.77 5.08 5.90 6.90 9.30 6.79 4.22
X Chart Control Limits
X
X
k
R
R
k
i
i
k
i
i
k
= =
+ + +
=
= =
+ + +
=
=
=
1
1
5 32 6 59 6 79
7
5 813
3 85 4 27 4 22
7
3 894
. . .
.
. . .
.


X Chart Control Limits
From 6.13
(n = 5)
X
X
k
R
R
k
UCL X A R
i
i
k
i
i
k
X
= =
+ + +
=
= =
+ + +
=
= + = + =
=
=
1
1
2
5 32 6 59 6 79
7
5 813
3 85 4 27 4 22
7
3 894
5 813 0 58 * 3 894 8 060
. . .
.
. . .
.
. . . .


X Chart Solution
From 6.13
(n = 5)
X
X
k
R
R
k
UCL X A R
LCL X A R
i
i
k
i
i
k
X
X
= =
+ + +
=
= =
+ + +
=
= + = +
= =
=
=
1
1
2
2
5 32 6 59 6 79
7
5 813
3 85 4 27 4 22
7
3 894
5 813 (0 58)
5 813 (0 58) (3.894) = 3.566
. . .
.
. . .
.
. .
. .


(3.894) = 8.060
X Chart Solution*
0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

X, Minutes
Day
UCL
LCL
Thinking Challenge
Youre manager of a 500-
room hotel. The hotel owner
tells you that it takes too
long to deliver luggage to the
room (even if the process
may be in control). What do
you do?
1995 Corel Corp.
N
Redesign the luggage delivery process
Use TQM tools
Cause & effect diagrams
Process flow charts
Pareto charts
Solution
Method People
Material
Equipment
Too
Long