7

PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP/TARAF HIDUP (Measuring the Cost of Living )

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

The consumer price index (CPI) / Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer.

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

1. Fix the Basket (menetapkan bakul barangan)

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

2. Find the Prices (kenalpasti harga barangan)

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

3. Compute the Baskets Cost (kirakan nilai barangan yang telah dipilih)

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

4. Choose a Base Year and Compute the CPI

cost of basket in current year CPI = 100 cost of basket in base year

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

5. Compute the inflation rate (Kira kadar inflasi)

CPI in Year 2 - CPI in Year 1 Inflation Rate in Year 2 = 100 CPI in Year 1

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

Bakul Barangan CPI Malaysia

Kumpulan Barangan
Makanan (Food) Minuman dan tembakau (Beverages and tobacco) Pakaian dan kasut (Clothing and footwear) Sewa kasar, bahan api dan kuasa (Gross rent, fuel and power) Perabot, hiasan dan perkakas rumah (Furniture, furnishings and household equipment and operation) Rawatan perubatan dan perbelanjaan kesihatan (Medical care and health expenses) Pengangkutan dan komunikasi (Transport and communication) Perkhidmatan rekreasi, hiburan, pelajaran dan kebudayaan (Recreation, entertainment, education and cultural services) Pelbagai barang dan perkhidmatan (Miscellaneous goods and services)
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

Wajaran
33.80 3.10 3.40 22.40

5.30
1.80 18.80 5.90

5.50
8

CPI & Kadar Inflasi Malaysia 1970 hingga 2004

Tahun 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 CPI 28.8 29.3 30.3 33.5 39.3 41.1 42.1 44.2 Inflasi 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 10.6% 17.3% 4.6% 2.4% 5.0% Tahun 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 CPI 65.0 66.6 68.5 70.6 73.6 77.1 79.9 82.8 Inflasi 0.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.6%

1978
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

46.3
48.0 51.2 56.2 59.4 61.6 64.1 64.3

4.8%
3.7% 6.7% 9.8% 5.7% 3.7% 4.1% 0.3%

1995
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004

85.7
88.7 91.0 95.8 98.5 100.0 101.4 103.2 104.4 105.9

3.5%
3.5% 2.6% 5.3% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.2% 9 1.4%

1986 PRINSIP EKONOMI 64.7 ECN3100

0.6% 2003 TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

Kadar Inflasi Malaysia 1970 hingga 2004

Peratus 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

Tahun KOS HIDUP TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN

10

Jenis-Jenis Inflasi
1. Inflasi Sederhana
2. Inflasi Merayap 3. Inflasi Melampau 4. Inflasi Tertekan
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 11

Sebab-Sebab Inflasi
1. Inflasi Tarikan Permintaan
2. Inflasi Tolakan Kos 3. Inflasi Import 4. Inflasi Struktur
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 12

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

Substitution bias

Introduction of new goods

Unmeasured quality changes

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

13

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas...
the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 14

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year
whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 15

Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation

Percent per Year 15
CPI

10

GDP deflator

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000
Copyright2004 South-Western

CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION

Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times.

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

17

Dollar Figures from Different Times

Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruths wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:
Salary2001 Price level in 2001 Salary1931 Price level in 1931 177 $80,000 15.2 $931,579
ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 18

Real and Nominal Interest Rates

The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for inflation.
The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation.

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

19

Real and Nominal Interest Rates

You borrowed $1,000 for one year. Nominal interest rate was 15%. During the year inflation was 10%.

Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate Inflation = 15% - 10% = 5%

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP 20

Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates

Interest Rates (percent per year) 15

10

Nominal interest rate

0 Real interest rate 5 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Copyright2004 South-Western

Summary
The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate. The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality. Because of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point.

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

22

Summary
The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services produced rather than goods and services consumed. In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, while the GDP deflator automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition of GDP changes. Dollar figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power. Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of inflation. The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation.

ECN3100 PRINSIP EKONOMI

TOPIK 7 PENGUKURAN KOS HIDUP

23