Value-focused thinking:

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Value-focused thinking:
Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives 1996

http://www.journals.elsevier.com/europe an-journal-of-operational-research/
MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Prof. Ralph Keeney Duke University: The Fuqua School of Business

Value-focused thinking:
1.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Introduction

Alternative Focused Thinking

Value Focused Thinking

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
1.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Introduction

Decision situations

Decision opportunities Alternatives

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
2.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Making Values Explicit

Decision context ends X

means
Objective 1

objectives

targets X

Objective 2 Objective 3

constraints

alternatives

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
2.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Making Values Explicit

Decision context Harvesting natural resources Environmental impact

Forest products company

Objectives
Minimize environmental impact

Strategic Objectives

Object

Direction of preference Less impact

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

Stakeholders

Regulators Government agencies Customers

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

What does efficient means?

Social cost

Efficient and fair pricing

What does fair means?
MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

What does it means? How would you measure ?

Cost/Kw*h

Why is this important ?

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

Strategic objectives hierarchy
Means-end objectives network Measures for the strategic objectives Prioritization

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
3.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro)

Investigate implications of resources losses on economic activity
Determine public environmental values

Develop a database on public and employee health and safety

Develop a quality-of-service index

Negotiations to sell power

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
4.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Procedures of Value focused Thinking

Identify objectives Categorize objectives Create alternatives Identify opportunities

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
4.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Procedures of Value focused Thinking

Identify objectives

Hard thinking Initial list without ranking or priorities

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
4.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Procedures of Value focused Thinking

Categorize objectives
Transportation

of hazardous material

Initial Objective - Minimize the distance (mean) Fundamental Objective - Minimize health impacts (end)

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
4.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Procedures of Value focused Thinking

Create alternatives

First alternatives that come to mind are the obvious ones

Thinking about how to better achieve objectives can suggest new alternatives

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
4.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Procedures of Value focused Thinking

Identify opportunities

Examine how you can better achieve your objectives Negotiate for the decisionmaker

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
5.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Applications of Value-focused thinking

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:
6.

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Value-Focused thinking and you

Philosophical exercise for real problems ?

One good decision opportunity can repay you for a lot of philosophical thinking

MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012

Value-focused thinking:

Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives

Concluso

Quebra o paradigma de se partir para a soluo, o que um comportamento mais comum em algumas organizaes;
A etapa de estruturao e priorizao dos objetivos to importante quanto complexa. Importante, pois guiar a busca e a deciso pelas oportunidades, e complexa, pois depende de discusso entre pessoas que tem interesses e vises diferentes; uma abordagem atual apesar de ser um artigo publicado a mais de uma dcada; Uma questo para debate a diferena entre Valores Objetivos.
MB-217 Anlise de Deciso - Alexandre Pasin & Srgio Pereira Maro 2012