Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Rafik Georgy
120
UNFCCC
1992
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change
386 1994
1995 3 5
Conference of Parties COP
Annex 1 Countries Non Annex 1 Countries
% 6 5 , 1990 2012 -2008 ( ) %55 %55 , ( )16 :
)*(GWPCO2
CH4 N2O
*
* * * *
20 HFCs
- PFCs
SF6
* 100
)Global Worming Potential (GWP
Emissions Trade ET Joint Implementation JI
Clean Development Mechanism CDM ( ) ( ) :
o o
2002
Designated National Authority DNA
- CDM DNA
: o o
( ) Certified Emission Reductions CERs
host country. Results in emission reductions that would not have happened otherwise. Generates real, measurable and long-term climate change mitigation benefits. Approved by parties involved. Credits potentially earned from 2000 onward (through 2008-2012).
CDM Procedures
PDD Production Pubic & Expert Opinions. Host country confirmation. Methodology Panel Approval. Validation. CDM Executive Board Approval. Registration. Monitoring. Verification. Certification. CER issuance and registration.
General description of project activity. Baseline methodology. Duration of the project activity / Crediting period. Monitoring methodology and plan. Calculation of GHG emissions by sources. Environmental Impacts. Stakeholders comments.
What is a BASELINE
It is The Business as usual that is what would otherwise happen if CDM project will not be implemented.
It is the reference value to estimate the reduction of CO2 ( or GHG ) emissions.
project activity.
Additionality must demonstrate that without the project, the GHG emissions would not have been
reduced.
Approaches to Baselines
COP7 held in Marrakech in 2001 formulated CDM Modalities & procedures The Marrakech Accords lay out three approaches from which proponents should select as the basis for their baseline methodology : A) actual current or historical emissions, or B) emissions from a cost-effective technology taking into account barriers to investment, or C) the averaged emissions of similar projects in the past 5 years in similar socio-economic, environmental and technical conditions and whose performance is in the top 20 percent.
or
Additionality
Probably, the most important issue for CDM-project baseline methodology approval is whether the project satisfies the additionality criterion. Two interpretations turning the condition into fulfillment of two criteria :
Additionality ( cont. )
o o
Soft interpretation ; Environmental Additionality : the project must show, through the baseline scenario, that CDM project, compared to alternative production methods, reduces CO2 emissions during its life time production process. i.e the project will accomplish both: Measurable and certified GHG emission reductions Long term climate change mitigation benefits
Or
Additionality ( cont. )
Hard interpretation; insists on proving that the project, being more expensive without counting CER revenues compared to the alternative base line, would not be implemented if the CDM project did not exist
Zafarana Project Satisfies BOTH !!
Presently, no approved CDM methodology to be applied for Grid Connected Wind Power Generation.
There is no incentive program to promote wind power projects currently in Egypt. The cost for a wind power plant is higher than for conventional thermal power plants, in terms of levelised cost of KWh produced. The economic growth in Egypt has led to stricter terms and conditions for foreign financial assistance. Naturally, the project will result in CERs.
No incentives for wind power generation. Wind is more capital intensive. Low price for natural gas. Result: Currently wind generated KWh cost cannot compete with thermal generated KWh cost. Wind cannot be viewed as BAU leading to : WIND NEED for CDM SUPPORT TO BE IMPLEMENTED.
Yes
No
Yes
Operating margin approach Determine: Operating margin Build margin Combined margin
A conservative approach.
MW
1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 Day period (12 hours)
Marginal generators
10
11
12
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e: Egypt's grid excluding low-cost/must-run Power Plant Type of Capacity Generation (MW) ShoubraEl Khima ST Cairo West ST Cairo West ext. ST Cairo South I CC(hybrid) Cairo South II CC Wadi Hof GT Tebbin GT Tebbin ST Damietta CC Talkha(CC) CC Talkha(ST) ST Talkha 210 ST Ataka ST Abu Sultan ST Shabab GT Port Said GT 1260 350 660 570 165 100 46 45 1125 283.6 90 420 900 600 100 64
Net Power (GWh) 7141 1563 3521 3236 1018 20 103 7 6736 1410 1 1912 4634 2879 73 24
Fuel Consumption (103 toe) 1686 426 791 711 186 8 43 3 1294 346 0.2 487 1053 824 25 9
Arish Oyoun Mousa Kafr El Dawar Mahmoudia (G) Mahmoudia (CC) Damanhour 300 Damanhour Ext Damanhour (CC) Seiuf (G) Seiuf (ST) Karmouz Abu Kir Sidi Krir 1.2 Matrouh Walidid Kuriemat Assiut ToTal
ST ST ST GT CC ST ST CC GT ST GT ST ST ST ST ST ST
66 640 440 180 308 300 195 152.8 200 113 25 900 640 60 600 1245 90 12.933
356 3655 1411 51 1898 945 742 923 38 355 1 3896 3662 149 2819 6713 461 62.353
108 823 376 19 386 211 195 177 14 131 0.1 925 765 41 674 1489 152 14.378
ST 682 MW
4481 (4.6%)
19754
02/03
Monitoring Methodology
Presently there is no monitoring methodology applicable to the project. Base Line source of emission is grid electricity which can be reasonably monitored as an indication for Potential fuel consumption (to be saved) hence avoided emissions of CO2 mainly. Duration of the project is yet to be chosen with preference to 7 years at least for the timebeing.
Environmental Impacts
Noise Pollution Negligible, Being an arid area. Visual Pollution Same, no community nearby. Land Use Same, however, during construction fences will be erected around.
CDM Procedures
PDD Production Pubic & Expert Opinions. Host country confirmation. Meth Panel Approval. Validation. CDM Executive Board Approval. Registration. Monitoring. Verification. Certification. CER issuance and registration.
DNA
Operational Entity A
MP & EB
3- ValidationRegistration
4- Project Financing 5- Monitoring
DOE (A)
Investor
Project Participants
6- Verification Certification
Operational Entity B
DOE (B) Verification Report Certification Report Request for CERs
EB - Registry
Institution
Meth9
Conclusion:
At 5 US$ per ton CO2 & around 0.56kg CO2 avoided emissions per KWh produced from thermal power stations -Wind produced KWh will have a bonus of around 2 piaster which cannot close the gap between wind and thermal generation. CDM cannot solely make uncompetitive projects economically attractive. Rather, CDM can make near economic projects feasible or more attractive.