The Enemy As A System - 1

Strategy To Tactics
Prometheus Process
USAF F-117 Weapons School February 2004

John A. Warden III
venturist
incorporated
Strategy For The 21st Century
Superior Tactical Capability Does Not Ensure Success

Tactical Superiority Doesnt Guarantee Success And Success Doesnt Require Superior Tactics US and North Vietnam Apple and IBM Personal Computer Germans vs Western Allies, WWI & II Strategy Is The Path To Consistent Success
venturist incorporated
Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved
Concept Genesis
No More Vietnams Dissatisfaction With No-win Cold War-era Attrition Plans For Europe And Korea Concern That US Was Not Using Airpower To Maximum Advantage Need For Understandable, Functional War StrategyEspecially Air Strategy Significant Air Staff Experimentation Prior To Gulf War I On European War Scenarios First Live TestJanuary 1991
The Essence Of Strategy

Where? Where Do You Want To Be In The Future? What Are You Going To Apply Your Resources Against? How Are You Going To Apply Your Resources?
What? How?
Exit?
Exit Plans For Everything?

Where?
Design the Future

Internal
What?
Target for Success External
Parallel Campaigns Against Multiple Centers of Gravity Campaign to Win Aligned Organization How? From A Strategically
Finish with Finesse Exit? Dont Snatch Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory
The Four Imperatives For Strategic Success
Where
Design The Future
What
Target For Success
How
Campaign To Win
Exit
Finish With Finesse
Environment Future Picture Guiding Precepts Measures of Merit

Relevant Systems Centers of Gravity Desired Effects
Parallel Attack
Exit Points
Termination Plan
Organization
Orchestration
Reconstitution
Plan and Operate In The Open
Use A Red Team

venturist incorporated Strategy For The 21st Century
Precision
Number of Bombs To Drop To Have A 90% Probability of One Bomb Hitting A Target A Third The Size of A Football Field
Conflict
WW II (B-17s) Desert Storm (F-117)
Average Miss Distance

3300 Feet < 10 Feet
Number of Bombs
9070 1
Reduced Support Lower Cost Far Faster

Target Size: 60 X 100 Feet 6000 sq ft
Precision of Effect Fewer Platforms Capital Intense Platforms Faster Platforms Smaller Platforms
Gulf War Objectives

Grand StrategicWin The Peace By Eliminating Iraqs Ability To Be A Strategic Threat To Its Neighbors Without Destroying It And Creating A VacuumMust Be Functional After War Iraq Out Of Kuwait Kuwait Government Restored Regional Stability Americans And Other Foreigners Safe Associated Precepts War Against Saddam Hussein, Not Iraqi People Minimize Civilian Casualties and Damage Minimize Coalition Losses Fight Asymmetrically
Imperative II Why Targeting Is Critical

Never Enough Resources Available To Do Everything Have High Probability of Winning Despite Inadequate Resources Must Chose Where To Apply Resources Effort and Resources Must Be Applied Against SomethingIn Other Words: Targets Failure to Choose The Right Targets Dooms Operations Before They Begin The Right Targets Are The Key to Creating The Change Needed To Realize The Future Picture Targets Are Part of A System
System Characteristics
Disparate Elements With Mutual Interaction Need Information To Function As A System Have Energy Have InertiaResist ChangeAnd Exhibit The Hysteresis Effect Have Centers Of Gravity Have Similar Patterns Of Organization Are Fractal (Patterns Repeat From Large To Small)
Systems Have Energy
System Model
Energy Change Negative

Energy Change Positive

Systems Resist Change And Exhibit The Hysteresis Effect
Systems and Centers of Gravity

E(s) = f(Leadership) x f(Processes) x f(Infrastructure) x f(Population) x f(Fielded Forces) P(s) = f(physical) x f(morale)
Over 200,000 Potential "Targets" In Iraq!

Well Developed "State of the Art" Air Defenses Radars Missiles AAA
Aircraft 750 Shooters 200 Support
24 Main Operating Bases 30 Dispersal Bases
Leadership
System Essentials Infrastructure
Surface-To-Surface Population Fielded Forces Missiles (SCUD) Chem-Bio Capability
Centers Of Gravity (COGs)

The Leverage Points In The System Between You And Your Future Picture Have Disproportionate Impact High Return On Energy Investment Resources Limited? Attack Centers Of Gravity
Network Theory And Centers Of Gravity

Distribution of Node Linkage
Number of Nodes with Links
Number of Links
From Barabasi & Bonabeau venturist incorporated
Network Theory And Centers Of Gravity

Distribution of Node Linkage
-
Number of Nodes with Links
+ -
Number of Links
From Barabasi & Bonabeau venturist incorporated
System Attributes The Five Rings

Person Leadership System Essentials Infrastructure Population
Fielded Forces
State
President, Key Media, Policy Makers
Company/ Market
Brain Circulatory, Neuro System Bones, Muscle Cells Leukocytes
CEO, Board, Market Leaders

Innovation, Finance, Communications Plants, Value Networks, Installed Base
Communications Energy Highways Demographic Groups
Employee Groups, Customers
Sales, Buyers, Military, Police, Merchants, Agencies Retail Outlets

System Attributes The Five Rings

Person Leadership System Essentials Infrastructure Population
Fielded Forces
State
President, Key Media, Policy Makers
Company/ Market
Brain Circulatory, Neuro System Bones, Muscle Cells Leukocytes
CEO, Board, Market Leaders

Innovation, Finance, Communications Plants, Value Networks, Installed Base
Communications Energy Highways Demographic Groups
Employee Groups, Customers
Sales, Buyers, Military, Police, Merchants, Agencies Retail Outlets

The Leadership Ring

Those Elements Of A System That Consciously Try To Move It In A Particular Direction
Almost Always Several Leadership Elements Rarely Will They Have Same Motivations Relatively Autonomous, Choose What To Do May Not Have Formal Titles May Be Individuals Or Entities Normally Provide Very High Leverage
Examples Include: President, Government Ministers, Senior Military, Key Media, Key Financiers, Key Influencers
The System Essential (Processes) Ring

Those Elements Of A System That Convert Energy From One Form To Another Examples Include: Internal And External Communication, Electricity, Recruiting, Training, Financing, And Production The Processes Ring Offers Great Leverage For System Change Because A Change In This Ring Will Affect The Rest Of The System
The Infrastructure Ring

Those Elements Of A System That Are Relatively Stationary And Constant
May Be Physical Such As A Road, Or May Be Conceptual Such As An Organization Structure
Examples Include: Buildings, Roads, Rivers, And Wires And Cables
The Population Ring

The Demographic Groups That Categorize The People Who Are Part Of A System (Young, Old, Male, Female, Rich, Poor, Professionals, Clerics) Demographic Groups Tend To Respond To Similar Stimuli (Publications, Messages, Rewards) In The Population Ring, You Address Groups, Not Individuals. For Example: Officers In General, Not General Smith The People In The Population Ring Demographic Groups May Show Up As Individuals In Other Rings.
For Example, General Smith Would Be Part Of The officers Demographic, But May Also Be The Air Force Commander In The Leadership Ring
The Fielded Forces (Agents) Ring

Those Elements In A System That Do Tactical Jobs
Fielded Forces Have Latitude In How To Do A Job, But Not Whether To Do It Fielded Forces Execute Policy But Do Not Have The Authority To Create It (But May Influence It) Agents Are The Instruments Of The System
Examples Include: A Fighter Squadron, A Division, A Corps Fielded Forces Are Important But Are Difficult To Change And Keep Changed So The Leverage Tends To Be Low For Overall System Change
Normal Leverage By Ring

High Low
Return On Investment
Leadership Ring 1
Sys Essentials Infrastructure Ring 2 Ring 3
Population Ring 4
Fielded Forces Ring 5

Finding Centers of Gravity

Once The Five Ring Pattern of Systems Is Understood, It Is Easy To Find COGs For Any System Review Future Picture Map The Relevant Systems In A System, Start With The Leadership Ring
Identify Elements In This Ring Which Will Have A Disproportionate Impact and Which Will Advance Realization of Future Picture
After The Leadership Ring, Do The Same Thing For The Remaining Four Rings: Processes, Infrastructure, Population and Agents A Key Center of Gravity May Not Exist; If So, Create It
Map The Relevant System Geopolitics

Leaders Comm Allies $ Media Production
Enemy Nation
Energy
People
UN, NATO, Etc
Potential Allies
Enemy Military
Or Here Dont Start Here Start Here!

Leaders
Your Military
Comm Allies
$
Media
Your Nation
People Energy
Map The Relevant System

Mil HQs IADS Comm
Or Here
Energy System
Repair Teams
Enemy Media Enemy Gov

Your Media
Start Here! Or Here

F-117s Navy B-2s
Transport System
Dont Start Here

Support CAOC
Iraq I: Finding Centers of Gravity

tikritis Railroads Air & Missile Offense Petroleum System Saddam Hussein
shiiites
Air Defense
National Communications Baath Party Ministry of military officers Defense Electrical middle System Weapons of Mass class Destruction Programs sunnites Bridges clerics
Iraq I Finding Centers of Gravity

Leadership Processes
National Communications
Infrastructure
Population
Fielded Forces
Saddam Hussein Key Baathists Snr Defense Leaders
Railroads Bridges
military officers Air Defense
Electrical System Petroleum System
shiiites
sunnites own middle class people
(IADS) Air & Missile Offense
Weapons of Mass National George Bush Destruction Prg Key Buildings

Communications
US Police US Military US Intell
National Leaders US Congress

US Transport US R&D
other tikritis nationals

clerics
Systems Are Fractal
Fractal COGs The Electrical System

Leadership Processes Infrastructure Population Fielded Forces
Minister of Interior Chief, Iraqi Electrical Grid Site Manager
Power Conversion Generation Voltage Conversion
Transmission Lines
managers engineers linesmen end users
State Security Forces Repair Teams End Use Sites
Decide The Desired Effects

To Reach Your Future Picture, Change The Relevant Systems By Affecting Their Centers of Gravity Decide What Each Center of Gravity Must Become The Desired Effect (s)To Force Needed System Change
Desired Effect Is Not How You Will Make The Change
Stay At The Desired Effects High Level Until You Cant Stand It; Going To HOWs Sub-optimizes Efforts If You Know The COG And The Desired Effect, There Is A Way To Make It HappenAlways
Desired Effects and Impact Plans

A Key Component of Success Is ActionMaking Something Happen Impact Plans Show Actions Associated With A COG Basic Strategic Components of An Impact Plan
Desired Effect: What Needs To Happen To A COG (Its End State) Measure of Merit: Measures Progress Toward The Desired Effect Timeframe: When Must The Desired Effect Be Realized
Basic Tactical Components Of An Impact Plan

Action: How Will It Be Done, Who Will Have Responsibility, and What Will It Cost: (Details Worked In Imperative III Campaign To Win)
Iraq I--Determining Desired Effects An Impact Plan Extract 1990-1991

Sample Centers of Gravity Saddam Hussein Electrical System Desired Effect
Ineffective Leadership During The War Little or No Electricity Available Around Country
Measure of Merit
Physically Gone, No Evidence of Rational Response Lights Out In Baghdad (and the Other Major Cities) Insufficient Supplies Reaching Deployed Fielded Forces Defections, Unit Surrenders, Rebellions
Time Frame First 24 Hours of War

First Hour of War For Baghdad Area; 3-5 Days For Rest First Week With Results Clear In Three Weeks During Course of War First 3 Days
Roads and Bridges

Military Officers
Unable To Support Surface Mobility

Officers Separated From Saddam Unable To Conduct Effective Strategic Ops
Air Offense
US Ops Not Seriously Hindered
Generic IADS Impact Plan

Desired Effect 1: Unable To Hinder US Air Attack Operations Measure Of Merit: No Losses To IADS Time Frame: First 6 Hours Desired Effect 2: IADS Restored After End Of War Measure Of Merit: Functions Effectively Against Non-US Threats Timeframe: 30 Days After War Termination
IADS Centers of Gravity

Leadership
AF Commander Air Def Cmdr Zone Cmdrs
Processes
Communications Electrical System
Infrastructure
Roads & Bridges Facilities
Population
officers
FieldedForces Forces Fielded

(Agents)
AD Sqdns
Radar Sqdns
enlisted
Detection
sects
Security
JFACC Wing Cmdr
Logistics Communications
Runways
ethnic
pilots
SAM Sec Police Sqdns
Logistics
others Intel Fly Sqdn

JFC
US R&D
IADS--Determining Desired Effects A Sample Impact Plan Extract

Sample Centers of Gravity AF Cmdr Communications Desired Effect
Unable to coordinate operations
Communication between IADS nodes ineffective
Measure of Merit
No competent AF level instructions
Units late in responding to in-bounds
Time Frame 6 Hours

6 Hours
Detection
Unable to see strategic air situation

No grid power available
Units operating autonomously
4 Hours
Electricity Air Def Ftr Sqdn

Unable to make effective attacks
All ops on backuppower No aircraft launches
2 Hours 12 Hours
Using Fractals From Strategy To Tactics

1. Review The Desired Effect, Measures, And TimeFrames 2. Do A Fractal Analysis Of The Center Of Gravity 3. Identify The Fractal COG (s) That Must Be Affected 4. Create Strategic Impact Plans For The Chosen Fractal COG (s) 5. Develop Action Plans (tactics) For The Key Fractal COG(s) 6. Red Team 7. Execute 8. Review In Open Planning
Desired Effects Focus On Results

Realize Future Picture By Affecting The SystemIndividual, Country, Market, Company Force Changes In The Energy Level of The Target Systems Measure Success Against Effect on Function, Not On Inputs Or Tactical Results Make The Desired Effects A Reality!
Recognize Effort, Reward Success
Imperative II: Target For Success The System Process

Right External System
Current External System
Current Picture
Future Picture Right Internal System
Current Internal System

TIME
Imperative IIICampaign To Win

Systems Stand Between An Organizations Present Position And Its Future Picture Use Campaigns To Change Internal And External Systems To Reach The Future Picture Build An Aligned Organization Able To Conduct Parallel Operations Execute Parallel Operations To Improve Probability Of Success Dramatically Over Serial Operations Orchestrate Resources For A Symphony, Not A Cacophony
Serial Warfare
Battle 1
Battle 2 Battle 3 Battle 4 Battle 5 Battle 6 Battle 7
P(S) = .9 P(S) = .9
P(S) = .9 P(S) = .9
P(S) = .9 P(S) = .9 P(S) = .9
Win The War

P(S) = .38
Parallel Attack--Iraq
Time Value of Action War

Cost of Operations
High
Enemy Has Time To React
Enemy Counter-Offensive
Ps
Theoretical Perfect Plan, Highly Parallel, No Enemy Reaction

Parallel Domain Serial Domain
Enemy Begins To Acquire Allies Enemy Employs Special Weapons World Opinion Shifts Domestic Support Wanes
Low Very Short
Likelihood of Achieving Objectives
Very Long
Time To Attack Enemy Centers of Gravity

Time Value of Action Acquisition

Program Cost
High
Users Want Changes
Cost-Overruns Inspire Foes

Program #s Scaled Back
Ps
The Ideal Program: Very Compressed, Highly Parallel. Like U-2, F-117, GBU-28 Serial Domain
Alternative Solutions World Changes System Irrelevant
Parallel Domain
Low 3 Years
Likelihood of Achieving Objectives
10 Years
20 Years
Time Required To Complete All The Steps Associated With A New Weapon System
Maintain and Use Reserves To Make A Difference

Forces and Assets Withheld Or Ready To Be Made Available For Employment At A Critical Juncture
Availability Reduces Risk Significantly

Employment of Reserves Should Make Fundamental Change In A Situation
Battle of Britain The Unexpected Tour Bus At The Fast Food Restaurant
Use To Reinforce Success, Check Failure, Ensure Results
Battle of The Bulge

Failure to Maintain Reserves Frequently Fatal
France June 1940 venturist Hewlett-Packard Kittyhawk Project

incorporated
The Problem: Paralysis Of Fifty Target System With Ten Single Bomb Aircraft
Leadership Wave 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
Processes Wave 2
Infrastructure Wave 3
Population Wave 4
Fielded Forces Wave 5
7
8 9
10
20% Miss Rate/day (All Causes)

10 Aircraft, 5 Waves, No Reserves, Reattack Previous Wave Missed Targets

Leadership Wave 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 x x x x x x x x w2 w2 80%
Processes Wave 2
x
x x
Population Wave 4
x x x x w5 w5

x x x 30%
x
x x x x w3 w3 w3 w3 60%
x
x x w4 w4 w4 w4 w4 50%
7
8 9
w5
w5 w5
10
w5 40%

2/10 Aircraft In Reserve Worst Case

Leadership Wave 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 x x x x x x r2 r2 75%
Processes Wave 2
x
x x
Population Wave 4
x x x x x x

x x x X X X
x
x x x x r3 r3 75%
x
x x x r4 r4 75%
7
8 9
r5
r5 75% 75%
10

Air Attack2/10 Aircraft In Reserve Best Case

Leadership Wave 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 x x x x x x r1 r1 100
Processes Wave 2
x
x x
Population Wave 4
x x x x x x

x x x X X X r5 r5 100
x
x x x x r2 r2 100
x
x x x r3 r3 100
7
8
r4
r4 100

System Equations
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. FPNew= f(Esys) PsFP= Esys/T Esys=|Ecog1 + Ecog2 + Ecog3 .| ECogF= (Ec0)(F) F = (Resources)(Acceleration)
Think Like An Architect

Think Like An Architect
Not Like A Bricklayer!

Impose Your Plan!

The Best Plans Seize The Initiative
And Deprive Your Opponent Or Market Of The Ability To React

The Next Best Plan Forces ReactionWhich May Necessitate Subsequent Response The Worst Plan Cedes The Initiative, Takes Planning Out Of Your Hands, And Forces You To React
Design the Future

Open Planning
Internal
Target for Success

External
Parallel to Win Campaign Operations
Strategically Aligned Organization + venturist incorporated
Finish with Finesse

Smart End Games
Strategy To Tactics USAF F-117 Weapons School February 2004

Prometheus Process
Insights and Discussion

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Strategy To Tactics

USAF F-117 Weapons School February 2004

Strategy For The 21st Century

Superior Tactical Capability Does Not Ensure Success

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Strategy For The 21st Century

Strategy For The 21st Century

The Essence Of Strategy

Exit Plans For Everything?

Strategy For The 21st Century

Design the Future

Target for Success External

Strategy For The 21st Century

The Four Imperatives For Strategic Success

Environment Future Picture Guiding Precepts Measures of Merit

Relevant Systems Centers of Gravity Desired Effects

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Strategy For The 21st Century

Plan and Operate In The Open

Use A Red Team

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Average Miss Distance

Reduced Support Lower Cost Far Faster

Strategy For The 21st Century

Gulf War Objectives

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Strategy For The 21st Century

Imperative II Why Targeting Is Critical

Strategy For The 21st Century

Strategy For The 21st Century

Systems Have Energy

Energy Change Negative

Energy Change Positive

Systems Resist Change And Exhibit The Hysteresis Effect

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Strategy For The 21st Century

Systems and Centers of Gravity

Over 200,000 Potential "Targets" In Iraq!

Aircraft 750 Shooters 200 Support

24 Main Operating Bases 30 Dispersal Bases

System Essentials Infrastructure

Surface-To-Surface Population Fielded Forces Missiles (SCUD) Chem-Bio Capability

Strategy For The 21st Century

Centers Of Gravity (COGs)

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

Network Theory And Centers Of Gravity

Strategy For The 21st Century

Network Theory And Centers Of Gravity

Number of Nodes with Links

Strategy For The 21st Century

System Attributes The Five Rings

Brain Circulatory, Neuro System Bones, Muscle Cells Leukocytes

CEO, Board, Market Leaders

Communications Energy Highways Demographic Groups

Employee Groups, Customers

Sales, Buyers, Military, Police, Merchants, Agencies Retail Outlets

Copyright Venturist, Inc. 2004 All Rights Reserved

System Attributes The Five Rings

Brain Circulatory, Neuro System Bones, Muscle Cells Leukocytes

CEO, Board, Market Leaders

Communications Energy Highways Demographic Groups

Employee Groups, Customers