Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
July 2009
John D. Clapp Managing Director Global Power Sector Specialist 388 Greenwich Street, 34th Floor New York, NY 10013 Tel - 212-816-8588 Fax - 646-291-1879
Executive Summary
Capital markets remain challenged for large projects (>$500mm) despite tightening credit spreads. Some US project developers now waiting on the release of the Stimulus Act (ARRA) US DOE loan guarantee program rules before accessing the capital markets with large projects
Market capacity remains an issue for large projects:
Withdrawal of many banks from project bank market Project finance bank market universe is considerably smaller than 24 months ago Some European banks retrenching in home markets Capital allocation remains a major constraint Relationships and returns driving deal selection Capital constraints reducing hold positions, requiring more banks to syndicate large projects Ticket sizes more typically in the $30-$50mm range, not the $80-$100mm clubs of the past More lenders = potentially greater execution risk, extended time to close Corporate bond market has stabilized after a spike in spreads at the end of 08 Remains an attractive market for utility level finance of major CAPEX programs Potential rating agency concerns if anticipated debt metrics deteriorate due to projected CAPEX spend Private placements remain open as an option to project sponsors, but project size is limited DOE loan guarantee program could relieve some of the capacity issues in the market and allow a larger number of conventional projects to go forward than would otherwise occur particularly those of size
US$ 530 Million Senior Secured Construction Facility US$ 20 Million Senior Secured Revolving Facility Borrower: Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line Company (TrAILCo), a special purpose entity created by Allegheny Energy to develop, construct, own and finance a 215 mile 550 kV transmission line spanning Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia $530 million Senior Secured Construction Facility $20 million Senior Secured Revolving Facility Sponsor: Maturity: Amortization Pricing: Commitment Fee Security: Closing Date: Citis Roles: Allegheny Energy, Inc 7 Years Bullet L + 187.5 bps (Yr 1-5); L+ 200bps (Yr 6-7) 50bps per annum; 37.5bps if more than 50% of the Credit Facilities are drawn A first priority perfected security interest in all equity interests in TrAILCo Aug 15, 2008 Coordinating Bank Joint Bookrunner and Joint Lead Arranger Administrative Agent
The Project is divided into five segments, each of which can be independently constructed, energized and placed into service, with the exception of two segments located in Virginia; total cost is estimated at $1,079 million The Project receives stable and predictable cash flow during and post construction; asset is entitled to earn a rate of return for 50 years after construction while O&M, taxes and depreciation are fully recoverable as per FERC declaratory orders
Facilities:
During construction, project costs are funded 1/3 from equity contributions and 2/3 from the Credit Facilities; at completion, equity contributions are required from the Sponsor to establish a debt to equity ratio of 50:50
The Credit Facilities benefit from structural features such as limited availability on a per-segment basis prior to state sitting permits being issued and flexibility to abandon certain segments if state permits cannot be obtained
Investment Highlights Strong and experienced sponsorship in Allegheny Energy with liquidity of more than $760 million as of March 31, 2008 A valuable and strategic transmission asset with strong federal and regional support Substantial free cash flow of $205 million during the construction period from 2008 to 2011; avg/min DSCR over the term of the Credit Facilities is 3.72x/2.40x Low construction and operation risk A strong credit counter party in PJM, one of the largest and most established markets in the US Conservative capital structure post completion, TrAILCo will have 50% leverage and Debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4x
Syndication The Credit Facilities were oversubscribed with approximately $750 million in total commitments 9 banks participated at the Agent (>55 million) and Co Agent level (>50 million) while another 8 participated at the Manager (>35 million) and Lender level (>20 million)
Transaction Overview Noble New York 08 Projects comprise three separate wind parks with an aggregate generating capacity of 330 MW, utilizing 220 General Electric 1.5 MW SLE wind turbines. Total project costs were approximately $835 mm NY 08 Projects are located in Chateaugay, Altona and Wethersfield, New York, in close proximity to Nobles existing NY 07 wind parks
US$ 632 mm Senior Secured Construction & Term Loan Facility US$ 109 mm Letters of Credit & Cash Collateral Loan Facility Borrower: Facilities: Noble Environmental Power 2008 Hold Co, LLC $632 mm Sr Sec Construction & Term Loan Facility (converted to $412 mm Term Loan at COD) $109 mm Letters of Credit & Cash Collateral Loans Sponsor: Maturity: Amortization Pricing: Commitment Fee Security: Financial Close: COD: Distributions: DSR Account: Citis Roles: Noble Environmental Power (majority owned by CCMP Capital Advisors and Canada Pension Plan) Construction + 15 Years 15-year sculpted amortization post-COD with a Target DSCR of 1.00x based on 1-year P-99 wind L+175 (Yr 1-4); L+187.5 (Yr 5-8); L+200 (Yr 9-10); L+225 (Yr 11-12); L+250 bps (Yr 13-15) 50 bps per annum First lien on all assets, accounts, and equity interests of the Borrower & the Project Companies June 30, 2008 April 3, 2009 1.2x DSCR Yrs 1-10. 1.4x DSCR Yrs 11-15 6 mos Yrs 1-10. 12 mos Yrs 11-15. Administrative Agent and Joint Bookrunner Energy Hedge Provider (Citigroup Energy Inc.) Wind Study / IE:
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Tax Equity: GE invested $222 mm Class A Equity at Term Conversion. In addition, GE will make additional equity contributions (PAYGO payments) over the first ten years as the wind parks generate Production Tax Credits (PTCs)
Energy Hedge: Citigroup Energy Inc. entered into a 10-year Energy Hedge with the Borrower, fixing the price on the 1-year P95 energy production of the NY 08 Projects, approx 79% of P50 volume REC Contracts: NYSERDA (NY state agency) entered into 10-year fixed price contracts to purchase 95% of the Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) produced by the NY 08 Projects 100% of projected cash flows are un-contracted in Years 11-15
Investment Highlights Largest wind financing ($741 mm) completed in U.S. to date Integrated financing and commodity hedging transaction, with Citi leading the financing as Admin Agent and Jt Bookrunner and providing 100% of the 10-Yr fixed-for-floating Energy Hedge
Merchant tail in Yrs 11-15 provided Noble with incremental leverage. Approx 55% debt-to-cap, $1,283 per kW at COD
Construction delay risk during a PTC expiry year was mitigated through a flexible Class A Equity agreement and with incremental contingent equity and sponsor support Transaction successfully syndicated during ongoing civil inquiry conducted by the New York State Attorney General regarding business practices of wind developers in upstate New York
24.0
12,743 1,395
68.5
8,149 816
27.0
8,529 927
$88.96
$8.75
$49.28
$6.64
$71.49
$3.94
(1) February 1-28, 2008 vs. December 1-31, 2008 vs. June 1-26, 2009
Bond Market
Investors are selectively open to transactions in defensive sectors, including toll roads and utilities
Market receptivity to private equity-sponsored transactions challenging compared to corporates
Increased cost-of-funding and return-on-capital hurdles L+[350] bps area represents current market pricing for middleof-the-fairway deals (tighter for renewables)
Given the supply overhang in the investment grade corporate market, demand for project paper likely to come more from the traditional long-term, buy-and-hold investors, such as the life insurance companies and pension funds and less from money managers and hedge funds Investors remain risk-averse and prefer plain-vanilla transactions to more highly structured financings BBB-/Baa3 is being treated with skepticism, with BBB/Baa2 receiving significantly better reception
Shorter tenors, to meet return-on-capital requirements 5-7 years, or shorter (e.g. 1-year construction loans) Amortization schedule can be on 15 yr + basis
Limited appetite for credit stories Banks are in a position to be choosy, given supply-demand balance for capital
U.S. Private Placement (USPP) market more receptive to project deals compared to the public markets The USPP market has demonstrated resilience in this market turmoil USPP investors comparatively more skilled in analyzing project structures As with the loan market, USPP investors have become more stringent on covenants and leverage
Given limited capacity, we expect to see more multi-tranche deals targeting two or more markets simultaneously General concern on overall environment, focus on high grade credit quality Crisis in financial sector has put focus on counterparty risks
Recent Comparables
Despite the challenging environment in the credit markets, there are several project finance energy transactions that have recently closed or are currently in the market.
Sponsor/Project Date Facility
Senior Secured Term Loan
Size ($mm)
$275.0
Tenor
Spread
Tier
Upfront Fees
In Market
5 yrs
Not disclosed
A Wind Deal
In Market Closed 6/26/09 Closed 5/29/09 Closed 5/28/09 Closed 5/20/09 Closed 4/27/09
$230.0
10 yrs
300 bps
EME
$207.2
8 yrs
enXco
$100.0
$275.0 $140.0
7 yrs 9 yrs
350 bps (Tranche A) 400 bps (Tranche B) 300 bps (drawn) 100 bps (undrawn)
150-225 bps
8 yrs
TBD 40mm 25mm Joint Lead Arranger (50mm) Senior Managing Agent (40mm) Lender (25mm)
TBD 250 bps 200 bps 300 bps 200 bps 150 bps
GennConn
First Wind
Closed 4/22/09
$376.4
1 yr
60
45 36 30 27 23 31 20 29 22 21 11 11 20 27 21
15
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*Issue total through June 19, 2009; Source: SDC
Amount ($bn)
29-Dec
26-Jan
23-Feb
23-M ar
20-A pr
1 8-M ay
1 5-Jun
Week Beginning
Jul-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Jul-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
0.4
0.4
0.3
$151
$189
$65
$249
$205
$158
$190
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009 Jul Aug 2008 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Private Placement Monitor & Citi. Data as of June 22, 2009
Current Private Placement Market Developments & Analysis Following the temporary pull-back experienced by the majority of the investors in late 2008, the market is presently open with approximately 80% of institutions actively pursuing new investment opportunities Most institutions have cash available and have returned to the traditional areas of focus, namely credit quality, covenant structure and pricing, as the major drivers of investment decision-making A normal transaction flow has re-emerged, with attention focused on solid credits With the renewed demand from the bulk of the market, a favorable imbalance has surfaced whereby the considerable but modest transaction flow thus far in 2009 is contributing to an undersupply of issuance Investor activity is expected to remain meaningful but nonetheless somewhat tempered from historical levels Private placement investment programs are, on average, expected to remain flat to the previous year Following the trend in the public market, credit spreads have rallied materially from the peak experienced earlier in the year, although remain relatively wide when compared with historical levels Notwithstanding the improving tone, issuers are encouraged to tap the market when access is available, due to the looming supply awaiting to approach the public and private markets
The decision to process applications via target date solicitations, as opposed to processing applications as received is recognized as one of the inefficiencies in the original program
A Credit Subsidy Cost, calculated as the NPV of the DOEs estimated losses on the loan minus the fees it receives is paid by the Project before receiving the loan(1) Projects whose applications are accepted are offered government guaranteed financing from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) at a rate of approximately T+[25-50] bps
To date, only one major project has received a loan guarantee under the original guidelines Solyndra Inc. solar panel manufacturing facility $535MM loan guarantee March 20, 2009
(1) In February, the Secretary of Energy announced plans to restructure this fee so that it is payable over the life of the guarantee.
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Timing
Program Size
Guarantee Process
Applicants complete Part I and Part II applications and DOE reviews applicants, conducts due diligence, and issues guaranteed loans through the Federal Financing Bank
(1) In February, the Secretary of Energy announced plans to restructure this fee so that it is payable over the life of the guarantee.
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Solicitation will be open ended with new application filing periods staggered every 45 days DOE intends to create some semblance of competition with set filing periods, but maintain overall rolling application process Applications are intended to be more summary in nature, but final applications will still require: Letter rating from one rating agency IE report
Financial model Other reports and documentation as specified in solicitation While open ended, DOE believes there is a practical deadline of December 31, 2009 Under the 1705 program projects must begin construction by Sept. 30, 2011 DOE believes that backbone transmission applicants will need to conduct an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) as part of the NEPA process, which may take up to 18 months to complete Backbone transmission projects will need to begin the EIS process by end of 2009 to complete the process in time to meet the construction deadline in 2011
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Can be renewable power generation, industrial facilities, or transmission 100% loan guarantees available if funding through the FFB Application requirements similar to current Innovative Renewables/Transmission Solicitation: Letter rating from one rating agency IE report Financial model Other reports and documentation as specified in solicitation Similar to the backbone transmission solicitation, the re-issued innovative renewable/transmission solicitation will be open ended with new application filing periods staggered every 45 days NEPA review requirements: DOE believes that an Environmental Assessment may be sufficient for most projects rather than the more extensive EIS. Unlike the 1705 programs, there is no construction start deadline, meaning that the solicitation will be open until closed by DOE
DOE also expects to work with State and Local Development Agencies to co-lend to smaller renewable and industrial projects under this solicitation and will begin a separate process to identify those agencies and their capabilities/pipelines
13
14
Covered portion expected to be held by sponsoring financial institution or sold to investors in the private market (bank or bond) on market project financing terms and rates similar to other government guaranteed debt
15
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