Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
8-12% Basic Economic Concepts 12-16% Measurement of Economic Performance 10-15% National Income and Price Determination 15-20% Financial Sector 20-30% Inflation, Unemployment, and Stabilization Policies 5-10% Economic Growth and Productivity 10-15% Open Economy: International Trade and Finance
Production Possibilities
Assumptions: Full Employment Fixed Resources and Technology Movements Along curve shows opportunity cost Outward shift illustrates economic growth Inward shift indicates destruction of resources
Producing Capital Goods will lead to greater economic growth than producing consumer goods. (Butter will lead to more growth than guns)
Points A,B,C, are efficient pts. Point D is underutilization Point E is economic growth E B D C
F.E.
F.E.1
Consumer Goods
P2
P1 D2 D1 Q1 Q2
Quantity
P1
P2 D1 D2 Q2 Q1 Quantity
Supply Factors
Supply Changes When:
Input prices change (resources and wages) Government (tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) Number of sellers change Expectations (about price and product profitability change) Disasters (weather, strikes, etc..)
Price
S2
P1 P2
D1
Q1
Q2
Quantity
Price
S1
P2
P1
D1
Quantity Q2 Q1
Comparative Advantage
A nation should specialize in producing goods in which it has a comparative advantage: ability to produce the good at a lower opportunity cost.
Example: Cheese Wine
Spain:
France
2 pounds
2 pounds
2 Cases
6 Cases
Currency Terms
Appreciation: Currency is increasing in demand (stronger dollar)
U.S. Currency will appreciate when more foreigners: travel to the U.S., buy more U.S. goods or services, or buy the U.S. dollar to invest in bonds
Currency Terms
Depreciation: Currency is decreasing in demand (weaker dollar) Being SUPPLIED in exchange for other currency.
U.S. Currency will depreciate when fewer foreigners: travel to the U.S., buy fewer U.S. goods or services, or sell the U.S. dollar to invest in their own bonds
Business Cycles
The increases and decreases in Real GDP consisting of four phases:
Peak: highest point of Real GDP Recession: Real GDP declining for 6 months Trough: lowest point of Real GDP Recovery: Real GDP increasing (trough to peak)
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Business Cycle
Full Employment
Peak -- Greatest spending and lowest unemployment. Inflation becomes a problem. Contraction/Recession -- Reduction of spending levels and increasing unemployment. Some cyclical unemployment begins. Trough -- Least spending and highest unemployment Expansion -- Spending increases and unemployment decreases We want to avoid extreme inflation and extreme unemployment. We want stability!
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Businesses demand household resources and supply goods and services to the product (factor) market.
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Consumption (C) + Business Investment (I) + Government Spending (G) + Net Exports (Xn)
GDP: Overstated
Includes damage to the environment Includes more spending on healthcareAmericans being unhealthy. Includes money spent to fight crime-more police officers, more jails, etc
Real GDP
Real GDP= Nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. Calculation:
Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index in Hundredths( deflator)
$11.048 Trillion
Inflation
Rise in the general level of prices Reduces the purchasing power of money Measured with the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Reports the price of a market basket , more than 300 goods that are typically purchased by an urban household
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Calculating Inflation
CPI in Recent Year CPI in Past Year Divided by CPI in Past Year (Number then Multiplied by 100)
Example: 2002 CPI = 179.9 2001 CPI = 177.1
Types of Inflation
Demand Pull Inflation: too much money chasing too few goods.
AD Curve will shift to the right, resulting in a higher Price Level and greater Output (until reaching Y*
Cost-Push Inflation: Major cause is a supply shockOPEC cutting back on oil production
AS Curve will shift to the left resulting in a higher Price Level and a decrease in Real GDP.
Losers:
Savers (especially savings accounts) Creditors (Banks will be repaid with those cheap dollars Fixed-Income Recipients (retirees receiving the same monthly pension)
Unemployment
Calculation: Number of Unemployed Labor Force (Multiplied by 100 to put as a %) The Labor Force is the total of employed and unemployed workers.
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Employed
You are considered to be employed if:
You work for 1 hour as a paid employee (so parttime workers count) You are temporarily absent from work (illness, strike, vacation) You work 15 hours or more as an unpaid worker (family farms are common)
Unemployed
Must be looking for work (at least 1 attempt in the past 4 weeks) Are reporting to a job within 30 days Are temporarily laid off from their job
Unemployment
100% of the people will never be employed, so the government considers 4-6% unemployment to be full employment. Types of Unemployment Frictional - temporary and unavoidable Structural - results from changes in technology or a business restructure (ex. Merger) Seasonal- occurs when industries slow or shut down for a season Cyclical - results from a decline in the business cycle.
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Wealth (financial assets) Expectations about future prices and income Real Interest Rates Household Debt Taxes
Marginal Propensities
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) and the Marginal Propensity to save (MPS) must equal 1. The MPS is used to derive the spending multiplier, which equals: 1_ MPS If the MPS is .2, the spending multiplier is 5. Any increase in spending must be multiplied by 5 to determine the overall increase in Real GDP.
Aggregate Demand
Price Level
Downward sloping: 1. Real-Balances Effect: change in purchasing power 2. Interest-Rate Effect: Higher interest rates curtail spending 3. Foreign Purchase Effect: Substitute foreign products for U.S. products AD (C + I + G + X) Real GDP
Aggregate Demand
Determinants of AD:
C + I + G + Xn (Yes, its GDP) An increase in any of these, due to lower interest rates or optimism will increase AD and shift the curve to the right. A decrease in any of these: more debt, less spending, tax increase, will cause a decrease in AD and shift the curve to the left
Government
Change in Gov. spending
Net Exports
National Income Abroad Exchange Rates
Investment
Interest Rates Expected Returns
Technology Inventories Taxes
Aggregate Supply
Short Run:
Assumes that nominal wages are sticky and do not respond to price level changes. Is Upward sloping as businesses will increase output to maximize profits Generally considered to be a year or less.
Long Run:
Curve is vertical because the economy is at its fullemployment output. As prices go up, wages have adjusted so there is no incentive to increase production. Generally considered to be longer than a year.
AS
Inflation
Long Run
Recession
Y*
Real GDP
Another look as AS
LRAS PL Changes that lead to a new equilibrium on the left of LRAS = Recession
SRAS
Changes that lead to a new equilibrium on the right of LRAS = Inflation (AKA an overheated economy) RGDP
PL
AD Y*
NOTE!!
For the AP exam, assume that there are only two determinants that simultaneously affect BOTH short term aggregate supply and aggregate demand
business tax changes and foreign currency changes.
A change in business taxes shifts AD and AS in the same direction A change in FX sends both curves in the opposite directions.
Demand-Pull Inflation
AS
Price Level
P2
P1
Cost-Push Inflation
Price Level
P2 P1
AS2
AS1
Demand-Pull Inflation
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DEMAND-PULL INFLATION
ASLR
AS2 AS1
Price Level
P3 P2 P1
c
b a AD2 AD1
Q1
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COST-PUSH INFLATION
Occurs when short-run AS shifts left
ASLR
AS2 AS1
Price Level
P2 P1
b
a
AD1
Q2 Q 1
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COST-PUSH INFLATION
Government response with increased AD
ASLR
AS2 AS1
P3 P2 P1
c b
a
Price Level
Q2 Q 1
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COST-PUSH INFLATION
If government allows a recession to occur
ASLR
AS2 AS1
Price Level
P2 P1
b
a
AD1
Q2 Q 1
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COST-PUSH INFLATION
If government allows a recession to occur
ASLR
AS2 AS1
Price Level
P2 P1
b
a
Q2 Q 1
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Liabilities $100,000
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MS1
MS2
nir1
Vertical curve-Supply controlled By the FED. An increase in MS leads to a rightward shift and lower nominal interest rates.
nir2
MD
Q1
Q2
Quantity of Money
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Interest Rate-Investment
Expected Rate of Return: Amount of Profit (expressed as a percentage) a business expects to gain on a project/investment.
This rate must be greater than the interest in order to be profitable. The Real Rate of Return is most important. An expected profit of 10%, that costs 5% in interest = The real rate of return: 5%.
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r1
At lower real interest rates businesses will Increase investment , leading to an increase In AD (aggregate demand). At higher rates of Interest, less money will be invested
r2
ID
Q1 Q2 Quantity of Investment
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A shift from ID1 to ID2 Represents an increase in Investment demand. A shift From ID1 to ID3 represents a decrease in investment Demand. ID2 ID3
ID1
Quantity of Investment
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R1 DLF2
DLF1
Q1
Q2
Quantity of Funds
R2 DLF1
DLF2
Q2
Q1
Quantity of Funds
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GDP
Nominal GDP: GDP measured in terms of current Price Level at the time of measurement. (Unadjusted for inflation) Real GDP: GDP adjusted for inflation; GDP in a year divided by a GDP deflator (Price Index) for that year
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INCOME
NOMINAL INCOME: number of dollars received by an individual or group for its resources during some period of time REAL INCOME: amount of goods and services which can be purchased with nominal income during some period of time; nominal income adjusted for inflation
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ANTICIPATED INFLATION
11%
=
5%
Real Interest Rate
6%
Inflation Premium
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WAGES
NOMINAL WAGES: amount of money received by a worker per unit of time (hour, day, etc.); Money Wage REAL WAGES: amount of goods and sevices a worker can purchase with their NOMINAL WAGE; purchasing power of the nominal wage. (Real = Nominal Inflation rate)
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NOMINAL/REAL TIPs
If nominal rates INCREASE and Price Level INCREASE, the CHANGE in Real is indeterminable. If nominal Wage rates do NOT change and Price Level fall. REAL WAGES increase. NOMINAL RATES PIGGY-BACK REAL RATES & NOT VICE VERSA.
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Fiscal Policy
Using Taxes and Government spending to stabilize the economy. Controlled by the President and Congress Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Congress must take action (change the tax rates) in order for the action to be implemented. Automatic Stabilizers: Unemployment benefits, Progressive Tax System, these changes are implemented automatically to help the economy.
FISCAL POLICY CHANGES AD . EXCEPT when the question specifically states there is a change in business taxes.
Contractionary
Used to fight Inflation RAISE TAXES DECREASE GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Price Level
AS1
P2 P1
Y1
P2
AD1 AD2
Y*
Real GDP
Crowding-Out Effect
An Expansionary Fiscal Policy as previously diagrammed will lead to higher interest rates. At higher interest rates, businesses will take out fewer loans and there will be a decrease in INVESTMENT (I) At the same time there will be a decrease in CONSUMER SPENDING (C) as they will take out fewer loans as well. This CROWDING OUT EFFECT will reduce the gain made by the expansionary fiscal policy.
MS1
MS2
Vertical curve-Supply controlled By the FED. An increase in MS leads to a rightward shift and
nir1
nir2
MD
Q1
Q2
Quantity of Money
Price Level
P2 AD2 P1 AD1 (C + I + G + X) Q1 QF
Real GDP
MS2
MS1
Vertical curve-Supply controlled By the FED. A decrease in the Money supply, shifts the MS curve to the left and raises interest rates.
nir2
nir1
MD
Q2
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Quantity of Money
Price Level P1
AS
P2
AD1 AD2
QF
Real GDP
SRAS
P1 AD
Real GDP
Price Level
Y1
Y*
Real GDP
Price Level
SRAS
PF P1
AD
Y1
Y*
Real GDP
When the unemployment rate is Low (2%), the inflation rate will Most likely be high (8%).
A
SRPC1
6
Unemployment Rate (percent)
Stagflation, unemployment and Inflation occurring together (OPEC decreasing Oil supply, causes this type of shift) SRPC2 SRPC1 6 7
Unemployment Rate %
3
The SRPC is a mirror image of AS If AS moves right, SRPC moves left.
SRPC1 SRP2 5 7
Unemployment Rate %
3 SRPC
Unemployment Rate %
Laffer Curve
What is the optimal tax rate? A tax of 0% will provide no tax revenue. A tax rate of 100% will also lead to no tax revenue (no incentive to work). Answer must be somewhere in between. Tax Rate 100
Tax Revenue
Economic Philosophies
Classical: Believes that the government SHOULD NOT interfere in the economy. And believes in selfcorrection of economic problems. Keynesian: Believes that GOVERNMENT SHOULD
interfere in the economy (taxes, government spending). Most mainstream economists are Keynesians
A. Investment in Human Capital B. Investment in Physical Capital C. Research and development, and technological progress D. Growth Policy
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Economic Growth
Five Factors connected to long run economic growth. Supply Factors:
Increase in natural resources (quantity and quality) Increase in human resources (quantity and quality) Increase in capital goods Improvements in technology
Demand Factors:
Increase in consumption by households, businesses, and government
Price Level P2 P1
AD2 AD1
Y1
Y2 Real GDP
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International Trade
Comparative Advantage and Specialization allows for economic growth and efficiency. (More of each good can be obtained by trading-Trading line illustrates this) Trade barriers create more economic loss than benefits. Today there is a trend towards free trade and a reduction in trade barriers. Strongest arguments for protection are the infant industry and military self-sufficiency arguments. WTO oversees trade agreements and disputes, but has become a target of protesters lately.
An increase in the value of a currency is called appreciation. A decrease in the value of a currency is called depreciation. Multinational firms convert currencies on the foreign exchange market, a network of about 2,000 banks and other financial institutions.
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S$1
DY2
Quantity of Yen
Current Account: Shows U.S. exports and U.S. imports of goods and services. Capital Account: Shows the U.S. investment (financial as well as capitalplants and factories) abroad and Foreign investment in the U.S. Credits: A credit are those transactions for which the U.S. receives income (exports, foreign purchase of assets) Debits: Those transactions that the U.S. must pay for: imports and purchasing of assets abroad.
Official Reserves Account: The Central Banks of all nations hold foreign currency to make up any deficit in the combined capital and current accounts.
If the U.S. has more credits than debits it finances this difference by dipping into its reserve account.
Easy, huh?
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