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Galton Tendency for tall parents to have tall children and for short parents to have short children, but the average height of children born from parents of a given height tended to move (or regress) toward the average height in the population as a whole (F. Galton, Family Likeness in Stature) Galtons Law was confirmed by Karl Pearson: The average height of sons of a group of tall fathers < their fathers height. And the average height of sons of a group of short fathers > their fathers height. Thus regressing tall and short sons alike toward the average height of all men. (K. Pearson and A. Lee, On the law of Inheritance) By the words of Galton, this was Regression to mediocrity
STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE among variables (not Functional or Deterministic), we essentially deal with RANDOM or STOCHASTIC variables (with the probability distributions
statistical relationship cannot logically imply causation. A statistical relationship, however strong and however suggestive, can never establish causal connection: our ideas of causation must come from outside statistics, ultimately from some theory or other (M.G. Kendal and A. Stuart, The Advanced Theory of Statistics)
Regression vs Correlation
Correlation Analysis: the primary objective is to
measure the strength or degree of linear association between two variables (both are assumed to be random) Regression Analysis: we try to estimate or predict the average value of one variable (dependent, and assumed to be stochastic) on the basis of the fixed values of other variables (independent, and nonstochastic)
Prof.VuThieu
May 2004
Types of Data : Time series data; Cross-sectional data; Pooled data 2) The Sources of Data 3) The Accuracy of Data
observable quantities. They are point estimators The sample regression line passes through sample means of X and Y
parameters to be estimated Ass 8: Variability in X values. They must not all be the same Ass 9: The regression model is correctly specified Ass 10: There is no perfect multicollinearity between Xs