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Controlled Disbursement:
Release the cash at the last possible moment
Investment Program:
Do something worthwhile with the cash in the meantime
Best Practices in Treasury Management by Nicholas Greifer and Jeffrey Vieceli, Government Finance Review, April 2000
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The intent of cash management is to manage the governments cash in a costeffective way that minimizes risk
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Investments
Cash Handling, Collections and Deposits Disbursements Cash Forecasting
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Number of bank accounts is kept to a bare minimum and cash balances are available to Treasury for disbursement
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The government earns interest on all its available cash balances and in turn pays for all the banking services it receives Formal selection of banks through a tender process based on security, transaction costs, interest rates and other services
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Provide receipt, disbursement and cash balance information electronically in real time
Electronically transmit payroll and disbursements Electronically interface data from banking system to cash management / treasury software
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Performed daily on a 12-month roll-forward basis High rate of accuracy and predictability Follow-up and analysis on variances
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Be Proactive
Take action when projections indicate larger variances than expected
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Flow of Information
Borrowing Plan
Actual Inflows and Outflows
Investment Plan
Cash Manager
Revenue Forecasts
Liquidity Management
Cash Balances
Spending Plan 32
Flow of Information
Key Information Sources
Banking System (Commercial and / or Central Bank) Accounting System Budget Spending Quotas, Plans and Amendments
Flow of Information
Key Information Sources
Major Budget Institutions (Exception Reporting)
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a series of linked bank accounts through which all government transactions flow
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Challenges
Typical issues in developing economies
Institutional malaise Culture change Entitlements Supplements/Per Diem
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Challenges
Absence of reliable information
No list of bank accounts
Lack of Infrastructure
For both banking and accounting systems
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RFP Formulation and Distribution - The second step is the development of the RFP based on the information gathered in Step 1.
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Return Forecasts
Debt proceeds must be invested
Match return on investment to interest of bonds
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2. 3. 4. 5.
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% of Total Portfolio
Stocks, bonds, and other 60 months or less evidences of indebtedness of the Commonwealth of VA Stocks, bonds, notes and other evidences of indebtedness of the United States Prime Quality Commercial Paper 60 months or less
100%
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Strategic Objectives
Cash forecasting can be used as the basis for evaluating alternative strategic financial policy objectives.
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Liquidity Management
Forecasting the cash position is essential to managing maturities and issuance of investments and debt.
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Forecasting Horizons
Short Term
Less than one month
Medium Term
Quarterly
Long Term
One Year or More
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Participants
Treasury Budget Department External/Internal Debt Departments Ministry of Finance (Macro Economic Department) Tax/Customs Ministries Other Line Ministries Spending Units Central Bank (or Commercial Banks)
Everyone has to be involved in some way to get a good forecast!
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Budget
The primary financial management tool of the government. All estimates of cash flows must start with this financial management tool, especially since it is usually prepared on a cash basis.
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80 20 Rule
In cash flow forecasting every piece of the puzzle is important, but. 80 percent of our revenue (& expenditures) comes from (or goes to) 20 percent of our sources
This means that we need to spend the most time on the 80 rather than on the 20!
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Methodology
Fund vs. Agency Basis
Fund: Forecasting cash flows on the basis of governmental fund types i.e. general revenue fund, highway (road) fund, etc. Agency: Forecasting cash flows on the basis of governmental agency or ministry
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Methodology
Economic vs. Functional Basis
Economic Class Forecasting cash flows on the basis of economic classification is probably the best, because it lends itself to robust variance analysis Functional Forecasting cash flows on the functional basis of government is possible but probably does not lend itself to a thorough analysis of patterns or variances between forecasts and actuals.
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Methodology
Degree of Certainty
Certain Flows Forecastable Flows
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Information Sources
Information Systems Cash vs. Accrual Banking System Budget Documents
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Components
Revenues Expenditures
Lending
Borrowing Other Balance Sheet Accounts
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Revenues
Budget as source reference. The initial budget revenue estimate must be backed by some consistent, corroborating macroeconomic analysis. Revenue collecting agencies should prepare monthly estimates using budget as a base.
Weekly or daily estimates of the monthly plan can be prepared using historical daily data lined up against payment due dates.
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Revenues
For example: 1,000 currency units are estimated in a given month for corporate income tax which is due on the 15th of the month. It is probable that 70/80 percent of the tax estimated to be collected will be received from the 14th to the 18th of the month. (Assuming all are business days.) This type of information can be confirmed by reviewing historical cash flow information and comparing the dates received to the dates due.
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Revenues
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 8 15 22 29
Day of the Month
% of Monthly Collections
More than likely, for a tax like a corporate profits tax, you will see such a pattern during a month. A sales tax or VAT collected through the month will likely have a flatter, more even pattern.
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Expenditures
Spending Plans Historical Review
Rates of Spending Seasonality of Spending
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Spending Plans
The use of spending plans is probably the most thorough way to develop a forecast of cash outflows. Spending Units (or other level of Ministry) should prepare monthly spending estimates based on budget and guidance on revenue forecasts. The spending plan should incorporate the proper level of flexibility given the seasonal nature of some spending categories. The development of spending plans must be examined on a cost benefit basis relative to the value of their preparation. The 80 percent of the spending still needs the most attention!
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Historical Information
The past is usually the best predictor of the future in countries with mature financial and budgetary systems. The past can be the best predictor of the future in countries with young financial and budgetary systems if information can be normalized for the current years situation. Use the Calendar to examine the patterns!
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Expenditures
The spending plans and historical data can be used to forecast monthly data. Historical information, common sense and known dates will assist with weekly and even daily breakdowns.
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Lending (Assets)
Estimated cash flows from outstanding loans.
Cash flows out to fund new loans
Borrowing (Liabilities)
Existing debt payments
Timing of issuance of debt Timing of new payments on recently issued debt
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Variance Analysis
Fundamental Issues Legal Issues
Technical (Administrative) Issues
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Calendar Issues
Coding Issues
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Collection Float
Mail Float
The delay between the time a check (payment) is mailed and it is received.
Processing Float
The delay between the time a payment is received and it is deposited.
Availability Float
The delay between the time a payment is deposited and the time the account is credited.
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Disbursements Float
Mail Float
The delay between the time a check is mailed and the date the check is received.
Processing Float
The delay between the time the payee receives the check and the time the check is deposited.
Clearing Float
The delay between the time the check is deposited and the time it is presented to the payors bank for payment.
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Float Analysis
The purpose of analyzing disbursement and collections float is to shorter this float to as few days as possible. Cutting down the time for funds to go from point A to point B and having information systems tracking this information every step of the way will lead to decreased costs. Shortening disbursement or collections float will likely be the result of using improved banking products or making changes in internal administrative processes.
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Measuring Float
Revenue Dollar Amount 1,500,000 Calendar Days of Float 4 Dollar Days of Float 6,000,000
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3 Totals
4,500,000
3,000,000 9,000,000
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9,000,000
18,000,000 33,000,000
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Measuring Float
Average Daily Float = Total Dollar Days of Float/Total Calendar Days in Period
Annual Cost of Float = Average Daily Float * Opportunity Cost of Funds
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Measuring Float
Average Daily Float = 33,000,000/30 Average Daily Float = 1,100,000
Annual Cost of Float = 1,100,000*9% Annual Cost of Float = 99,000
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Accounting Controls
Payment Frequency
On-Demand vs. Once Per Week Disbursements
Banking Products
Zero Balance Account Fraud Prevention Wire Transfers Automated Clearing House
Disbursements
Purchasing and T/E Cards
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Banking Products/Terminology
Deposits - Paper Checks
Armored Car/Currency Lock Box Credit Cards
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Fraud Prevention
Debit Blocks Debit Filters
Both restrict potentially fraudulent ACH transactions from posting to an account
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Wires
Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) Same day availability
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Controlled Disbursement
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Purchasing Cards
Simplifies Purchasing and Payment Process
Lower Overall Transaction Processing Costs per Purchase Increased Information Reduced Paperwork
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Purchasing Cards
Decentralizes the Purchasing Function
Set/Control Purchasing Dollar Limits Set/Control Vendors Rebates Available
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Purchasing Cards
Written Agreement with Bank Written Polices and Procedures with Staff
End of Year Tax Reporting
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Remote Deposit
On-site conversion of checks to electronic images for deposit
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Lockbox
Wholesale
High dollar value/low volume Many non-standard invoices or single payments for multiple invoices
Retail
Low dollar value/high volume Standardized invoices (Utilities)
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Credit Cards
Types of Payments
Infrastructure needed Internal Controls Liability
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Questions?