DEMOGRAPHY

Dr. Saurabh Kumar Assistant Professor Community Medicine

Contents
Definition Demographic cycle World population trends, Growth rate Demographic trends in India National Family Welfare Programme

Definitions
Demography: The scientific study of human population. It focuses its attention on three human phenomena: a) changes in population size (b) the composition of the population (c) the distribution of population in space. It deals with five demographic processes namely fertility, mortality, marriage, migration, and social mobility. These five processes are continuously at work.

Scientific study of human population

Changes in population size Composition of population Distribution of population in space

Definitions
Civil registration: Is a system developed to collect data on vital events (live births, deaths, marriages and divorces) happening to a population. Civil registration is continuous and universal The cost is high, but not having the information may be more costly

Definitions
Census: The total process of collecting,
compiling, analyzing, and publishing demographic, economic, and social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a welldelineated part of a country at a specified time
A census can be conducted: De jure: Legal or customary attachment to an area (you are registered where you usually reside) De facto: Physical residence (you are registered where you are currently staying/residing at the time of the census)

Demographic Cycle
The history of world population suggests that there is a demographic cycle of five stages through which a nation passes (1) 1st stage (High stationary): High birth rate and high death rate which cancel each other and the population remains stationary. (2) 2nd stage (Early expanding): The death rate begins to decline, while the birth rate remains unchanged

Demographic Cycle
3) 3rd stage (Late expanding): The death rate declines still further, and the birth rate tends to fall. The population continues to grow because births exceed deaths. 3) 4th stage (Low stationary): low birth and low death rate with the result that the population becomes stationary. Zero population growth has been recorded in Austria during 1980-85

4) 5th stage (Declining): The population begins to decline because birth rate is lower than death rate (Germany).

Fertility

Social mobility 5 demographic processes:

Mortality

Migration

Marriage

Demographic cycle
EARLY EXPANDING

HIGH STATIONERY

LATE EXPANDING

DECLINING

LOW STATIONERY

Worlds Population Trends

The billions added at decreasing time intervals population striving in developing countries SEAR- India, Indonesia, Bangladesh among 10 most populous in world Decrease in birth rates and death rates

Birth rates
Decrease affected by: Changes in government attitudes towards growth. Spread of education Increased availability of contraception Extension of services through F.P. programme Marked change in marriage patterns Birth Rate: 22.1 per 1000

Death rates
Decrease affected by: Better MCH services Successful EPI immunization DDC and ART Control programme Control of other infectious diseases Death Rate: 7.2 per 1000

Growth rate
CBR-CDR= Current Annual Growth Rate GR like train = 14.9 or 0.149% Rating Annual GR% Stationery Slow Moderate Rapid No growth <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5

Very rapid
Explosive

1.5-2
2-2.5>

Factors affecting GR
Age distribution, marriage customs, Cultural, social and economic factors. Peak around 1970 2.2% Africa, 1.5% Asia, 1.3% Latin America, 0.2% in Europe. 95% in developing countries 1/3 population < 15yrs age group Estimated 10 billion by 2020 Global total fertility rate 2.6% 176 people/ minute

Demographic trends: India

2.4% world land area & 17% of worlds population 1921- big divide 2000- 11th May, 1 billion 2011- Census:1.21 billion State wiseUP, Maharashtra, Bihar

Age and sex composition Age pyramid Sex ratio Dependency Ratio Density of population Family size Urbanization Literacy & Education Life Expectancy

 Age & sex composition 0-14 yrs male population 1% more than female, 60+ female population 0.6% more than male Proportion < 15 yrs decline, elderly > burden on health services.
Age pyramid broad base tapering top

 Sex Ratio No of females/1000 males -mortality -sex selective migration -sex ratio at birth 940 females per 1000 males

 Dependency Ratio Total dependency ratio= 0-14 years +65 years and above 15 to 65 years Societal dependency ratio Young age D.R., Old age D.R.
Density of the population Number of persons living per square kilometer

 Family size The total number of children a woman has borne at a point in time. *Completed family size *Depends on: Duration of marriage, education of couple, the number of live births and living children, preference of male child, desired family size etc. *Two child family norm long term demographic goal of NRR=1

 Urbanization Increase attributed to: Natural growth, migration from villages, attraction of better living conditions, availability of social services. Mega-cities- those with population of 10 million or more Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi Literacy and education Life Expectancy

 1952

National family welfare programme

NFPP few clinics, distribution educational material, training and research from clinic approach-extension education approachsmall family norm 1965-Lippes Loop Dept of Family Planning infrastructure strengthening, PHCs, subcenters, UFHCs, District & State bureau

1961-66(3rd FYP)

1966 1966-69

 1969-74(4th 5yr plan) prog. Made integral part of PHC & Subcentre 1970 AIH postpartum programme 1972 MTP act introduced 1975- 80(5th 5yr plan)1976 first NPP 1976 forcible sterilization 1977 new population policy MOFPMOFW 1977 Rural Health Scheme, involvement of Health guides, trained dais, opinion leaders 1982 National health policy approved in 1983 NRR=1 by 2000

 1985- 86 1992 1997

Universal Immunisation programme, ORT CSSM RCH programme client oriented, demand driven, high quality integrated services.