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Overview
Historical Context Summary of Relevant Models Logistic Difference Growth Model Linear Growth The Logistic Equation
Historical Context
The starting point for population growth models is The Principle of Population, published in 1798 by Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834). In it he presented his theories of human population growth and relationships between over-population and misery. The model he used is now called the exponential model of population growth. In 1846, Pierre Francois Verhulst, a Belgian scientist, proposed that population growth depends not only on the population size but also on the effect of a carrying capacity that would limit growth. His formula is now called the "logistic model" or the Verhulst model.
Recent Developments
Most recently, the logistic equation has been used as part of exploration of what is called "chaos theory". Most of this work was collected for the first time by Robert May in a classic article published in Nature in June of 1976. Robert May started his career as a physicist but then did his post-doctoral work in applied mathematics. He became very interested in the mathematical explanations of what enables competing species to coexist and then in the mathematics behind populations growth.
pt+1 = pt + ((K pt)/K)*r *pt pt+1 = ((K pt)/K)*(1 + r)*pt pt+1 = pt + C pt+1 = pt + C*(K - pt)/K
Logistic growth models are derived from the exponential models by multiplying the respective factors r and (1+r) in the exponential models by (K pt)/K. Note that the two models for exponential growth are identical but the two for logistic growth are different. The linear growth model is important both in itself and as a part of the logistic models.
The Incremental Context, in which growth takes place at discrete points in time The Continuous Context
As this shows, the curve produced by the logistic difference equation is S-shaped. Initially there is an exponential growth phase, but as growth gets closer to the carrying capacity (more or less at time step 37 in this case), the growth slows down and the population asymptotically approaches capacity.
Linear Growth
Note that, qualitatively, there are three main sections of the logistic curve. The first has exponential growth and the third has asymptotic growth to the limit. But between those two is the third segment, in which the growth is virtually linear.
which can occur only if s = 0 (which is the minimum) or when p = K/2. At that value, pmax = s*K/4. Since pmax K, s 4.
(1+r) = 0.95
At s = 3.00, the oscillation is among two values and at 3.55, among four values.
K = 800, K = 1600 and p0 = 1 1500 1000 500 0 1 11 (1+r) = 3.00 21 (1+r) = 3.55
An example of Chaos
K = 1000, p0 = 1, (r+1) = 3.75 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 21 41 61 81 101
THE END