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Exolus International Advisory June 2013 (Updated from September 2010) France.houdard@exolus.com M (86 21) 5100.1833 x 1100 M (1) 917.285.6528 (United States)
Table of Contents
What does China look like from Space? At Night? Economy: Fastest Growing Large-Scale Economy in History? Wealth: Middle Class now Larger than Populations of most Countries? Migration: Largest Rural-to-City Transformation in History?
3 4 5 6
7
10 11 14
Shanghai/Beijing Grade-A Office Supply & Financial Performance Office Demand & Growth Drivers
18
19 20 21 26 29 30 33 35
Retail Sector
36
37 38
2
3x
5 Accepted full convertibility for current account transaction China Opens to the World Eliminated its dual exchange rate
Admitted to WTO
3
Applied to join GATT
2x 2x
Source: IMF 4
80 60 40 20 0
99
90
684
53
400 300 200
100
0
106
73 35
2025F
Lower Middle US$ 13,500 US$ 21,500 Poor < US$ 13,500
2005
2010F
2015F
2020F
1,600
1.45 billion
1,400
1.2 billion
1,200
1 billion
833
822 684 531 381 245
23% 31% 40% 49% 2015 57% 2025
Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
822
Urbanization
Urbanization
Steppe
Infrastructure World-Class SuperInfrastructures, Integrated Hubs: Historically unprecedented levels of investment, concentrated in hubs.
Mountains
People
Full Authority: to Plan Nationally and Implement Confucian -> Socialist -> Capitalist
Russia Federation
Landmass: 3% larger than the Landmass of United States 2/3 Country Un-inhabitable: 2/3 of Country Covered by Mountains, Deserts, thus Un-inhabitable
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Continental Demographics
India
Cultural Diversity
Myanmar
Thailand
Source: The Global Land One-km Base Elevation (globe) Project; ETOPO 2 Worldwide Bathymetry; The Ethnologue, Languages of the World
Supply 35
New Additions
11.2
millions sq.m
40
billions sqm
30 25 20 15 10 5 9.5
150 100 50 0
2005
2010F
2015F
2020F
2025F
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: MGI 2008 10
Office Sector
Developing the Worlds Fastest Growing CBDs ..
Shanghai 2014
Shanghai 1993
11
1,200
25.0%
1,000 20.0%
000 sqm
5.0% 200
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.0%
Vacancy Rate
12
25% 1,400
1,200
20%
000 sqm
600
10%
400
5% 200
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0%
Vacancy Rate
13
210
Q1 2003 = 100
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
2003
50
2004
2005
2006
2007 Shanghai
2008 Beijing
2009
2010
2011
2012
14
Revenue Growth
Sales Engineering
Innovation
Marketing
IT
HR
Shared Services
R&D
F&A Distribution
Procure Sourcing
Production
RESOURCES
Cost Reduction
Shareholder Value
15
Sales
Engineering
Marketing
IT
HR
R&D
SSC
F&A Proc
Distribution Production
Sourcing
RESOURCES
Cost Reduction
Shareholder Value
16
Cost Reduction
Revenue Growth
China Graduates 600,000 Engineers per Year; US Graduates 50,000 per Year Access to larger global talent pool, with relevant skills for product localization R&D - Pressure to introduce new products, faster, better, cheaper
80 60 40 20 0
60%
Percent of Responses
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
China
United States
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Japan
India
Spain
Canada
Brazil
20
Q2 2012
Rooms
China
India SE Asia & Other Countries Total Pipeline
1,502
379 436 2,317
406,480
66,867 88,349 561,696
Q2 2012
Projects
1,202 133 167
Rooms
306,473 36,641 63,366
1,502
406,480
21
200
Shanghai
Beijing Las Vegas London New York City Paris Hong Kong Dubai Sydney Tokyo Seoul
Incl. 102 five-star hotels / over 45,000 rooms* Incl. 81 five-star hotels / over 35,500 rooms*
Source: Data collected from various sources (Some data variance may exists between key sources)
22
Shanghai
Thousands Rooms Thousands Rooms
Beijing
CAAG 13.5%
40
35
CAAG 11.1%
45 40 35
CAAG 6.1%
CAAG 10.6%
WORLD EXPO
30
25
Olympics
30
25 20
20
15 10 5 -
15
10
5
-
23
Hotel Average Room Rates - Selected Major Cities (YTD May 2013, USD)
0 Paris New York London Hong Kong Los Angeles Buenos Aires Berlin Shanghai* Beijing 50 100 150 200 250 300
350
24
Other: USD24, 8%
Top 10 Hotels (by RevPAR, YE Nov 2008) Grand Hyatt Shangri-la Pudong JW Marriott Four Seasons Hotel Westin Shanghai Marriott Hongqiao Jing An Hilton Shangai Le Royal Meridien Shanghai The St. Regis Shanghai Okura Garden
Notes: Occ - Average Annual Room Occupancy; ARR - Average Room Rate in USD; RevPAR - Average Room Revenue Per Available Room in USD;
1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Sh an g
72% 68% 65% 58% 58% 53% 54% 51% 52% 63%
55% 912
54%
RevPAR ARR
736 605
Occ
564 540 531 526 522 460 458 400 392 392 379 353 334 328 307 305
30%
285
20% 10% 0%
15.6%
20.0% 24.2% 13.0% 12.8% 13.9% 15.0% 20.8% 19.5% 15.0% 10.9% 9.2% 7.0% 5.1% 8.3%
33.5% 63-64%
MICE
Foreign Leisure
Domestic Leisure
Other
China Beijing Shanghai
20
40
5.7% *
80
8.5% *
60
100M by 2015
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015F
Overnight Visitors
Increase
28
12.1% *
7.4% *
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015F
Visitor Trips
Increase
29
Retail Sector
Developing the Worlds Largest
Leading Retail Formats Worlds Largest Flagship Worlds Largest Flagship
Louis Vuitton
The Place
Apple
Nokia
30
600
20.0%
500 16.0%
000 sqm
400
12.0%
300 8.0% 200
4.0% 100
0.0%
New supply
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate
31
50
40
30
20
10
32
Personal Expenditure
3.0 1 2 4 11 9 7 12 16 9 5 15 6 11 9 54 29
Food Transport & Communications
Health Care Consumer Goods Education Home Appliances
3.0
100% 90
2.5
80 70
2.0
60 50 40 30 20
USD Trillions
1.5
Housing
Clothing
1.0
0.5
10 0 1990
2010
0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
33
99
90
684
53
400 300 200
100
0
106
73 35
2025F
Lower Middle US$ 13,500 US$ 21,500 Poor < US$ 13,500
2005
2010F
2015F
2020F
34
Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Gansu Inner Mongolia Beijing Hebei Shanxi Henan Hubei Liaoning Tianjin
Ningxia
Shaanxi
Shandong
Jiangsu Anhui Jiangxi Fujian Shanghai Zhejiang
Chongqing
Guizhou Hunan
Yunnan
Guangxi
Guangdong
Hainan
35
Bust or Boom?
36
China banks cleaned up in 1990s: Non-performing loans in 1997 averaged 40 50%; only 6% in 2007. Chinas financial system relatively insulated; imposed capital controls; modest exposure to sub-prime assets.
The Central Bank has accumulated over USD2 trillion in foreign reserves. The accumulation of large external surpluses means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
State Owned Enterprise net profits as share of GDP has grown from (-1%) in 1997 to (+4.3%) in 2007. Record corporate profit growth over past 5 years (industrial profits rose 38% per annum); liability ratios declined. Urban incomes have nearly doubled in past 10 years.
Food price increases fading out, raw commodity prices continue to drop, as well as price of oil.
Source: Deutsche Bank; Standard Chartered; UBS; IMF; Other 37
2020 GDP*
EU-27 China
GDP* PPP-adjusted
France
UK
US
Germany
India Japan
$29.6 tr
$28.8 tr
$13.4 tr
$6.8 tr
$30.0 tr
GDP* PPP-adjusted
2009 GDP*
EU-27 US 6,4 trillions China de $ 3,6 trillions Japan de $ Japan India
France
UK
Germany
$14.1 tr
$9.1 tr
$4.1 tr
$3.8 tr
$14.2 tr
Source: The World Bank 38
China
India
US
Japan
38%
9% 4% 5% 9%
9% 4%
38%
38%
9%
5%
4%
9% 5%
9%
Monetary Stimulus GDP (PPP) GDP Stimulus/GDP National Debt/GDP Trade Surplus (Deficit)/GDP Past Stimulus/GDP
$586 billion $7.8 trillion $4.2 trillion 14% 20% 10% 47% (90s)
$700 billion $14.3 trillion $14.3 trillion 5.10% 76% -4% 3% (81-91)
Source: National Development and Reform Commission 40
10%
10% 10% 25% H ousi ng
25%
25% R ural opm ent R ural D evel opm ent D evel
Hous ing
Infrastructure Infrastructure
R ural Development
H ousi ng
E nvironment ronm ent Envi ronm ent Envi Dis as R ter RDec ons truc tion on i saster R econstructi Di saster econstructi on
& Indus trial Restructuri es truc t Innovati on & Industri al R Innovati onInnovation & Industri al R estructuri ng
Germany
United States
14%
18%
14%
39%
19%
19%
37%
56%
71%
10%
6%
-4%
GDP (PPP)
$7.8 tr
$2.8 tr
$14.3 tr
Degree of Chinas Export-Dependency and in Driving GDP Less than that Often Reported
The degree to which a slow-down in trade might impact GDP seems to result in frequent overstatements of Chinas export dependency. Chinas dependency on exports is much less than its neighbors, Singapore and Korea, and roughly equal to that of Japan. The overstatements of Chinas export dependency might be rooted in a focus on Chinas gross exports (approximately 40% of GDP); which is actually not used in calculating the export-portion of GDP. The export-portion of GDP is actually calculated based on the sum of value-add exports (only approximately 18% of GDP)
Slow down in trade does result in a decrease in GDP relative to previous years. In last four years a very steep jump in Chinas trade position added a bonus of as much as 3% on top of Chinas GDP growth, resulting in the extremely high GDP growth figures of 10 to 12% In absence of that steep jump in Chinas trade position, the 3% bonus on previous GDP growth would disappear.
Estimates on job losses from the economic slowdown in trade sector could result in a loss of anywhere between 5 and 10 MM people mostly migrant workers from the rural countryside and thus has little impact on internal urban economy.
Urbanization impact. Moderate impacted on urbanization due to return of migrant workers from the trade sector and related construction sector.
Source: Deutsche Bank; Standard Chartered; UBS; IMF; other 42
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For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries Please Refer to the Following Research Reports
China 2020
India 2020
Brazil 2020
Russia 2020
Found on Slideshare @
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/china-2010-2020-v58slideshare http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future
Download Reports @
www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
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