Tools for global warming policy makers

Harvey Lam, Princeton University

http://www.princeton.edu/~lam
We accept the following premises
CO
2
emitted by the burning of fossil fuels
is primarily responsible for the observed rise of
atmospheric CO
2
content .
CO
2
is a major greenhouse gas.
Continued and indefinite increase of CO
2

can have significant adverse consequences.
The fix should have the consent of an
informed public.

Critiques of
current public discourse
1. Inadequate appreciation of the
magnitude of the global warming
problem. Confusion between global
warming, energy independence, and
air pollutions.
2. Inadequate appreciation of the time
scale of the problem.
3. Inadequate appreciation of the role of
the invisible hand of free market
capitalism.
Notations
t Time (years)
C Atmospheric carbon content (GtC)
E Annual emissions rate (GtC/yr)
C
stab
Stabilized C target ceiling
E
stab
Allowed E when C=C
stab


CO
2
concentration: 1 ppm=2.1 GtC
C(before 19th century)~286 ppm ~600 GtC
At the start of the 21 century
C(0)~800 GtC
E(0)~8 GtC/yr
dC/dt(0)~4 GtC/yr
Stabilization target
C
stab
=1200 GtC (example)
E
stab
=?
dC/dt=0
Consequences of global warming
Global average temperature rise by
between 2 and 4 degree Celsius for the
doubling case.
More droughts and floods.
Sea levels rise.
.
When? How much more?
How credible ?
Common sense questions
A. How much total reduction of annual
carbon emissions---fossil fuels usage---
from our current value do we need?
B. Over how many years can we spread out
the total reduction job if we start right
now?
C. What penalty do we pay if we
procrastinate? How do we monitor the
state of the global warming world?

A sample web link from
An Inconvenient Truth
Want to do something to help stop global
warming? Here are things you can do
1. Use fluorescent lights
2. Drive less
3. Recycle more
4. Check your tires
5. Use less hot water
6. .
http://www.climatecrissis.net/pdf/10things.pdf
Messages from the media
Windmills off Cape Cod? No.
Nuclear energy? No.
Perhaps the global GDP might drop 1%.
Executive orders setting goals. Yes.
Fine the polluters. Yes.
Ethanol from corn. Yes.
We can stop global warming now if we
only have the will.

The punch lines

E
stab
(t) ~
C
stab
600
t
L
(t)
( GtC / yr)
t
L
(t) ~ 200 + (t 200) /2 ~ 200 ( years)

t
CPM
(t)
2[C
stab
C(t)]
dC(t) / dt
(years)
Best known stabilization curves
(WRE, 1996)
Meaning of E
stab
and t
L


E
stab
(t) ~
C
stab
600
t
L
(t)
( GtC / yr)
t
L
(t) ~ 200 + (t 200) /2 ~ 200 ( years)
Analogy to a college in steady state:
E
stab
is (allowed) size of freshmen class.
t
L
is student residence time.
C
stab
-600 is current enrollment on campus.

Derivation of t
CPM
(t)

t
CPM
(t)
2[C
stab
C(t)]
dC(t) / dt
CPM is short for
Constant Pace Mitigation
Mitigation job is
done in t
CPM
(t)
years.
Value of t
CPM
(t) does not
depend on science at all.
Where does science come in?

E
stab
(t) ~
C
stab
600
t
L
(t)
( GtC / yr)
t
L
(t) ~ 200 + (t 200) /2 ~ 200 ( years)
The following comes from published
science-based studies:
Better science will provide better t
L
(t;).
Repeat: t
CPM
(t) is independent of science.
Answers to question A

E
stab
~
C
stab
600
200
For simplicity, we use t
L
(t)~200 years
It is not a 10% or 20% problem!
C
stab
=1200, E
stab
=3 GtC/yr
C
stab
=1000, E
stab
=2 GtC/yr
C
stab
=900, E
stab
=1.5 GtC/yr
C
stab
=800, E
stab
=1 GtC/yr
Currently, C~800 GtC, and E~8 GtC/yr
Answers to question B

t
CPM
(t)
2[C
stab
C(t)]
dC(t) / dt
Its value depends on the chosen target ceiling
C
stab
, and the current (observed) values of
C(t) and dC(t)/dt.
Right now, C(0)=800 GtC, dC(0)/dt=4 GtC/yr.
So:
C
stab
=1200, t
CPM
(0)=200 years,
C
stab
=1000, t
CPM
(0)=100 years.
Historical data of t
CPM
(t)
The CPM strategy is a benchmark strategy
which can serve as a guide line.
The CPM strategy

dE
dt
|
\

|
.
|
CPM
=
E E
stab
t
CPM
The recommended pace of mitigation is
denoted by P
CPM
, defined by:

P
CPM

E E
stab
t
CPM
P
CPM
(t) and t
CPM
(t) can be computed anytime.
State of the
global warming world
t
CPM
(t) tells how many years do we have (at
most) to stabilized at the chosen C
stab
.
P
CPM
(t) tells how much annual emissions
reduction is needed now to stabilized at the
chosen C
stab
for each of the next t
CPM
(t) years
(it is the lower bound of this value).
When we are not doing what we should be
doing, t
CPM
(t) would drop by more than one
year each year, and P
CPM
(t) would rise.

Answers to question C
Consequences of business-as-usual
The Do-the-best-we-can scenario
Carbon cycle emulator
Carbon that used to be buried
underground is being dug up, pumped
out, burned and emitted into the
atmosphere.
Once in the atmosphere, it somehow
migrates into the biosphere and the deep
ocean, leaving some to stay on.
Conservation of carbon mass must be
respected.
The Three-tank Model
Atmosphere Biosphere Deep Oceans
The three-tank model

dC
dt
= E
C B
t
S
|
dB
dt
= +
C B
t
S

B D
t
L

dD
dt
= +
B D
t
L
This is a linear model, with four constants:
t
S
, t
L
, | and . E(t) is the forcing function.
In the fast t
S
limit, it reduces to a
two-tank model

dC
dt
~
1
1+ |
E
C D
t
L
|
\

|
.
|

dD
dt
~ +
C D
t
L
B ~ C
Historical initial condition:
C=B=D=600 GtC when E=0.
Comparison of the two-tank Model with
HILDA
E(t) extracted from HILDA run vs original E(t)
Historical data of 1/(1+|)
taken when E was rising with time

1
1+ |

dC/ dt
E
Fantasies
1. A California bio-engineering team has
cultivated a strain of termites that eats
carbon based garbage, reproduces madly
when exposed to sun light and water
vapor, and dies happily as greasy oily
balls which have the same chemical
structure as crude oil from the Middle
East. It can produce good quality crude oil
at $20 per barrel.
2. OPEC announces a price cut and vows to
defend its market share.
Conclusions
1. Global warming is not a 10% or 20%
problem. It is a more than 60% problem.
2. No single technology is likely to be able to
do the job. It needs the sum of all the 5%
and 10% contributions it can get.
Conservation helps. Fission nuclear
should not be preemptively be discarded.
3. t
CPM
(t) for several interesting C
stab
s
should be publicized annually to keep the
public informed.
4. Technology alone cannot solve the
problem. The invisible hand of free market
capitalism must be removed.
Parting remarks
Political leaders (Gore, Blair,
Schwarzenegger, Corzine, ) must
recognize that having the will to do the job is
not enough.
The general public (you, me, and our
grandchildren, ) must be willing to pay the
costs and bear the burdens of doing the job.
The global warming problem is much
bigger than the energy independence and
the air pollutions problems for which
conservation must play a dominant role.

Socolow, R. H. and Lam, S. H.
Good enough tools for global warming policy making,
in Energy for the Future,
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 2007.
Available at http://www.princeton.edu/~lam
Historical data of d(t
CPM
)/dt
Plot of dC/dt vs E using solutions from the
One-tank Model
Plot of dC/dt vs E for parabolic immediately cases
for several positive s