Energy Sustainability

Energy sustainability
1

What is sustainability?
Replenishment at the rate of consumption Environment friendly

Increasing energy demand Population growth Income growth Increasing economic activity

3 4

Then what? Catch up with it??

Issues Exhaustion of resources Environmental Effects

Supply Security
Energy Sources Fossil Fuels
(Oil, Gas and Coal)

Non-Fossil Fuels
(Hydro, Nuclear, Solar and Wind)

88% of world energy supply is currently met by these fuels

12% of world energy supply is currently met by these fuels

How much of Fossil Fuel do we have?

Fossil Fuel Coal Oil Gas Total World Reserves 540 170 140 850 Current yearly world consumption 2.4 3.8 2.2 8.4 Reserve life at current constant rate 225 45 65 100

Upside Provide clean and sustainable energy Issue Currently difficult to harness large scale energy production

side - New E and P technologies, Enhanced Oil Recovery Issues - Concentration of reserves in a particular region 3

Environmental Effects
Emission of greenhouse gases causes global warming The average earths surface temperature has increased by 0.6C from 1800 By 2100, the temperature expected to go up by 1.4 to 5.8C. Energy sector accounts for 75% of worlds carbon emissions

Steps Taken to control Climate Change In 1988, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)was formed. By 1992, the panel created the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005

Reduction of worldwide emission of GHG during 2008-2012 to bring emission levels down by about 5% from 1990 levels Post 2012 norms to be decided by discussion Mechanisms evolved Clean Development Mechanism, Emission trading and Joint Implementation

USA emits about 20% of the worlds total carbon emissions.

Options & Solutions

Wishful thinking Total energy generation by renewable
Fact - By 2050, wind, solar and other renewable will provide 30% of the worlds energy Replacing coal with Natural gas in power plants can cut their carbon emissions by 70% Development of LNG industry and unconventional gas sources like shale gas

Natural gas will play an increasingly important role toward a low carbon future
Oil and coal are there to stay, but focus will be on improvement in energy efficiency Application of Carbon Capture and storage techniques Increase in share of biofuels for transport . Currently make up for 1% of transportation fuels. Have the potential to go upto 10% by 2030 Increasing prevalence of electric cars Coal and biomass gasification technologies to intensify in scale Other upcoming sources like hydrogen technology etc
It takes a new technology 30 years to capture 1% of market share of global energy

CDM funding to boost cleaner technologies by making them more effective Probable game changer Nuclear Energy
5

Energy Mix 2030 (Statistical scenario)

Global Energy mix - 2030
Coal 27%
Natural Gas 27% Other 19% Oil 27% Total Energy Production 16 btoe Nuclear energy 7% Hydro electricity 7% Renewable s 5%

20000 15000 10000 5000 0

Energy production by source (mtoe)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil Nuclear Energy Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Coal Renewables

Energy Demand Growth Population expected to rise by 1.4 billion and income levels by 100% in next 20 years. Energy demand will increase from 11 btoe in 2010 to 16 btoe in 2030. Global energy consumption to grow at an average rate of 1.7% between 2010 and 2030. Growth to decelerate gently beyond 2020 Energy mix change Fuel mix to change relatively slowly Gas and non-fossil fuels gain share at the expense of coal and oil Fastest growing fuels renewable-growth rate 8.2% p.a. Among fossil fuels, gas to grow fastest at 2.1% p.a. Carbon emissions to grow at 1.2% p.a, leading to emissions in 2030 at 27% higher than 2010 Possible forecast changers Future of economic growth, Policy action on climate change, Chinas Pathway, Energy security
6

Thank you