Network Strategic Evaluation

Rodrigo Archondo-Callao Senior Highway Engineer, ETWTR

The World Bank

Applications of HDM-4
Common network applications of HDM-4
Entire Network Strategic Planning Programming of Works Typical Typical Candidate Roads in Fair and Poor Condition

HDM-4 helps decisionmakers with strategic planning of investments or programming of road works HDM-4 evaluates the entire network managed by a road agency or a partial network of candidate roads typically in fair and poor condition

Strategic Planning Entire Network

Road classes example for HDM-4 strategic planning evaluation
Traffic Range (vehicles/day) 1 to 200 201 to 500 501 to 1000 1001 to 2000 2001 to 4000 4001 to 6000 6001 to 10000 > 10001 Total Percent Total Bituminous Network (2 lane equivalent length, km) Road Condition Range (Roughness, IRI) <3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 8 >= 8 161 93 143 77 290 792 362 163 11 21 1,659 2,371 993 92 77 4,040 4,472 952 252 14 5,445 4,060 1,005 21 2 8 3,808 2,050 117 12 9 4,449 1,587 134 10 3 2,552 1,293 88 9 2 22,404 16,717 3,794 636 114 31 51% 38% 9% 1% 0% 0% Total 474 1,638 5,191 9,731 10,541 5,996 6,183 3,945 43,697 100% Percent 1% 4% 12% 22% 24% 14% 14% 9% 100%

define rational allocation of resources among

networks, regions, and so forth calculate approximate quantities, costs, and benefits estimate outcomes in performance

Network Evaluation Options

- Evaluate each road section individually Evaluate Road Sections As a function of budget constraints: - Road works for each road and - Roads sorted by economic priority

- Evaluate a representative matrix of road classes Evaluate Roads Classes

Evaluate Representative Matrix of Road Classes Advantages

Reduces the number of roads to evaluate Generates a solution catalog with recommended road works for each road class Makes it easier to define the strategies to be evaluated Disadvantage: The road classes are characterized with average values

Definition of Road Classes

Road classes categories examples
Country Road Class Categories Number of Road Classes Thailand Traffic, Roughness 48 Pakistan Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness, Cracking 120 Bangladesh Functional Class, Number of Lanes, Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness 1,260 Brazil (Goias) Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness, Deflection 80 Vietnam Surface Type, Number of Lanes, Traffic, Condition Class 252 Morocco Surface Type, Climate, Traffic, Roughness, Cracking, Width 648 Mexico Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness, Cracking, Width 360 Chile Surface Type, Traffic, Road Condition, Geographic Region, Functional Class 192 Honduras* Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness, Cracking 120 Lebanon* Surface Type, Traffic, Roughness, Road Width 112 Uruguay* Surface Type, Traffic, Trucks Percent, Roughness, Surface Distress 129 * HDM-III evaluation

traffic and roughness are common to all evaluations to define the road condition, roughness is complemented by cracking or deflections or a surface distress index region, road width, functional classification or percentage of trucks may be considered to better characterize the network is desirable a limit of 400 road classes with more than 0 km

Definition of Condition Categories

Road condition categories examples
Example 1 < 3.0 IRI Roughness 3.0 - 4.5 IRI Roughness 4.5 - 6.0 IRI Roughness 6.0 - 9.0 IRI Roughness >= 9.0 IRI Roughness Example 2 < 2.5 IRI Roughness < 2.5 IRI Roughness 2.5 - 3.0 IRI Roughness 2.5 - 3.0 IRI Roughness 3.0 - 4.0 IRI Roughness 3.0 - 4.0 IRI Roughness >= 4.0 IRI Roughness >= 4.0 IRI Roughness Example 3 < 3.5 IRI Roughness < 3.5 IRI Roughness < 3.5 IRI Roughness 3.5 - 5.0 IRI Roughness 3.5 - 5.0 IRI Roughness 3.5 - 5.0 IRI Roughness 5.0 - 7.0 IRI Roughness 5.0 - 7.0 IRI Roughness 5.0 - 7.0 IRI Roughness >= 7.0 IRI Roughness >= 7.0 IRI Roughness >= 7.0 IRI Roughness and and and and and and and and and and and and and and and and < 0.4 mm Deflection < 0.4 mm Deflection < 0.4 mm Deflection < 0.4 mm Deflection < 2 % Cracks 2 - 20 %Cracks >= 20 % Cracks < 2 % Cracks 2 - 20 %Cracks >= 20 % Cracks < 2 % Cracks 2 - 20 %Cracks >= 20 % Cracks < 2 % Cracks 2 - 20 %Cracks >= 20 % Cracks and >= 0.4 mm Deflection and >= 0.4 mm Deflection and >= 0.4 mm Deflection and >= 0.4 mm Deflection
Example 5 Example 4 < 2.5 IRI Roughness 2.5 - 4.0 IRI Roughness >= 4.0 IRI Roughness 1-Very Good 2-Good 3-Fair 4-Poor 5-Very Poor and or or < 5 % Cracks 5 - 30 %Cracks >= 30 % Cracks

Road Classes Characterization

Condition Good Fair C1B C2B C3B Poor C1C C2C C3C A,B,C - Condition C - Asphalt Concrete

1500 C1A
3000 C2A 6000 C3A

1,2,3 - Traffic

Good Fair Poor Condition Condition Condition Roughness (IRI - m/km) 2 4 6 Total area of cracking (%) 0 5 15 Ravelled area (%) 0 10 20 Number of potholes (No./km) 0 0 5 Edge break area (m2/km) 0 10 100 Mean rut depth (mm) 0 5 15 Texture depth (mm) 0.7 0.5 0.3 Skid resistance (SCRIM 50km/h) 0.5 0.4 0.35 Road age 1999 1994 1989

Definition of Road Works

Road works costs example
Work Class Periodic Work Type Predominant Work Activity Preventive Treatment Slurry Seal 4 mm Resurfacing Single Surface Treatment 10 mm Surface Treatment Double Surface Treatment 25 mm Resurfacing Asphalt Overlay 30 mm Asphalt Concrete Asphalt Overlay 50 mm Rehabilitation Strengthening Asphalt Overlay 70 mm Reconstruction Reconstruction 50mm AC/200mm GB AC=Asphalt Concrete, ST=Surface Treatment, GB=Granular Base Financial US$/m2 1.74 2.07 4.22 7.68 12.14 18.02 16.71 Economic US$/m2 1.31 1.55 3.17 5.76 9.11 13.52 12.53

each country identifies the road works to evaluate each road work has a different design life estimated by the HDM-4 Model and the purpose of the evaluation is to identify for each road class a recommended design life (road work or level of investment) based on network budget constraints

Responsive or Scheduled Works

Condition-responsive and scheduled alternatives
Project Alternative Type Condition-Responsive Project Alternatives Execute Single Surface Treatment at 5% cracking Execute Single Surface Treatment at 10% cracking Execute Single Surface Treatment at 15% cracking Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm at 3.5 IRI Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm at 4.0 IRI Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm at 4.5 IRI Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm at 3.5 IRI Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm at 4.0 IRI Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm at 4.5 IRI Scheduled Execute Single Surface Treatment every 5 years Execute Single Surface Treatment every 9 years Execute Single Surface Treatment every 12 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm every 10 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm every 15 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm every 20 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm every 10 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm every 15 years Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm every 20 years

Schedule First Road Work

Schedule First Intervention Alternatives
Project Road Condition Alternatives Good Condition Execute Slurry Seal in 2008 Execute Slurry Seal in 2009 Execute Slurry Seal in 2010 Execute Slurry Seal in 2011 Fair Condition Execute Single Surface Treatment in 2008 Execute Single Surface Treatment in 2009 Execute Single Surface Treatment in 2010 Execute Single Surface Treatment in 2011 Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm in 2008 Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm in 2009 Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm in 2010 Execute Asphalt Overlay 50 mm in 2011 Poor Condition Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm in 2008 Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm in 2009 Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm in 2010 Execute Asphalt Overlay 70 mm in 2011 Execute Reconstruction in 2008 Execute Reconstruction in 2009 Execute Reconstruction in 2010 Execute Reconstruction in 2011

Alternatives are defined so that a road work is scheduled in a given calendar year followed by a condition-responsive maintenance policy that keeps the road in good condition after the road work is executed

First Periodic Road Work

Condition Good Fair C1B C2B C3B Poor C1C C2C C3C

1500 C1A
3000 C2A 6000 C3A

- Reseals 12 mm

- Reseals 12 mm - Overlays 5 cm

- Overlays 5 cm - Overlays 8 cm

Works occur in years 2008, 2009, 2010 or 2011 followed afterwards by 5.0 overlays at 3.5 IRI

Current Network Statistics

> 9.0 IRI 21% <= 3.0 IRI 13%

3.0 - 4.5 IRI 6%

Roughness <= 3.0 IRI 3.0 - 4.5 IRI 4.5 - 6.0 IRI 6.0 - 9.0 IRI > 9.0 IRI

4.5 - 6.0 IRI 15%

6.0 - 9.0 IRI 45%

2500 - 3500 7%

> 3500 7%

< 500 35%

1500 - 2500 18%

Traffic (AAADT) < 500 500 - 1500 1500 - 2500 2500 - 3500 > 3500

500 - 1500 33%

Optimal Wok Program

Alternative Good Fair Poor 1500 3000 1500 Base O503 O800 3000 ST03 O501 O800 0 NPV (M $) Good Fair 4 Poor 14

4
7

15
206

101
250

6000 ST03 O500 O800

IRR (%) Good Fair 25 Poor 32

6000

NPV / Investment (M$) Good Fair 0.6 2.2 29.4 Poor 1.4 10.3 25.5

1500 NA
3000 26

1500

40
76

61
109

3000 2.0 6000 3.5

6000 41

Comparison of Budget Scenarios

Economic comparison of budget scenarios examples
Scenario 100% 61 M US$/year NPV Agency Road Users Total Society Losses Cost Benefit Benefit Cost Ratio 292 289 4,755 5,044 0 70 362 5.1 Scenario 75% 50 M US$/year 284 269 4,783 5,052 8 50 334 6.7 Scenario 50% 34 M US$/year 245 265 4,826 5,091 47 46 290 6.4 Scenario 25% 17 M US$/year 190 250 4,895 5,145 101 31 221 7.2 Scenario 5% 3 M US$/year 55 226 5,055 5,281 237 7 62 8.6

Net Present Value of Economic Society Benefits, NPV (M US$)

Present Value of Total Society Costs Losses Compared with 100% Scenario (M US$) Present Value of Costs and Benefits Compared with Do-nothing Scenario (M US$)

Consequences to Society Benefits

Present Value of Society Net Benefits (Billion US$)
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Capital Expenditures per Year (Billion US$ per Year)

Allocation of Resources
Road works allocation of resources example
Recommended Road Works Alocation for 50% Budget Scenario (M US$) Network International National Local Grand Total 34.98 34.98 2006 34.75 0.23 2007 24.88 10.10 2008 0.33 20.47 11.75 32.54 2009 12.07 19.77 2.82 34.67 31.12 2010 30.19 0.93 Total 102.22 51.50 14.57 168.28 100% Percent 61% 31%

Road works planning program example

Expenditures (Million US$) Road Work Activity Slurry Seal Overlay 25 mm Overlay 50 mm Overlay 80 mm Rehabilitation ST Total Road Work Activity Slurry Seal Overlay 25 mm Overlay 50 mm Overlay 80 mm Rehabilitation ST Total 4611 4486 1177 32 4.15 Year 1 3402 5.02 Road Works (km) Year 2 1548 2051 873 14 30 9893 21 3795 Year 3 6746 2061 1056 3774 Year 4 Total 11696 4112 6880 46 51 22785 95.52 3.92 Year 1 66.68 Year 2 30.36 97.64 70.88 1.72 2.68 7.97 1.88 7.71 Year 3 132.20 98.12 85.72 306.44 Year 4 Total 5.73 4.89 13.96 0.14 0.11 24.84

Consequences to Road Agency

800

Road Agency Total Capital Expenditures (M US$)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 61 M US$/year 50 M US$/year 34 M US$/year 23 M US$/year 17 M US$/year 3M US$/year 2006-2010 2011-2025

Scenario

Network Length Distribution and Average Roughness

With Project Scenario - Network Length
100% 90% 8.0

Network Km (%)

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual 2006 Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6.0

5.0

4.0

Network Roughness (IRI)

80%

7.0

3.0

Without Project Scenario - Network Length

100% 90% 8.0

2.0

Network Km (%)

Good < 3.5IRI

Fair 3.5 < IRI < 5.5

Poor > 5.5 IRI

Network Roughness (IRI)

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual 2006 Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6.0

Similar Charts for Network Utilization Distribution

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

Year
Good < 3.5IRI Fair 3.5 < IRI < 5.5 Poor > 5.5 IRI Network Roughness (IRI)

Network Roughness (IRI)

Year

80%

7.0

Network on Stable Condition

100%

Percentage of the Network on Stable Condition in 2010 (IR<4.5)

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61 M US$/year 50 M US$/year 34 M US$/year 23 M US$/year 17 M US$/year 3 M US$/year Percent of the Network on Stable Condition in 2006 (19%)

Scenario

Average Network Roughness

Average Network Roughness (IRI)
14 12

Capital Expenditures
US$ 7 Billion per Year US$ 6 Billion per Year US$ 5 Billion per Year US$ 4 Billion per Year US$ 3 Billion per Year US$ 0 Billion per Year

Roughness (IRI)

10

2 0 1 2 3 Year 4 5 6 7

average network roughness weighted by length or utilization (vehicle-km) is presented for each budget scenario

Solution Catalog
Solution catalog example for a given budget
Total Bituminous Network (2 lane equivalent length, km) Traffic Range Road Condition Range (Roughness, IRI) (vehicles/day) <3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 8 >= 8 1 to 200 Base Base Base Base 201 to 500 Base Base O3 Y5 O3 Y5 O5 Y5 O5 Y4 501 to 1000 O1 Y6 O2 Y5 O3 Y2 O3 Y4 O5 Y3 1001 to 2000 O1 Y6 O1 Y3 O3 Y3 O3 Y3 O4 Y2 2001 to 4000 O1 Y3 O3 Y4 O3 Y1 O3 Y1 O4 Y1 O4 Y1 4001 to 6000 O1 Y2 O2 Y2 O3 Y1 O3 Y1 O4 Y1 6001 to 10000 O2 Y6 O3 Y4 O3 Y1 O4 Y1 > 10001 O3 Y5 O3 Y2 O4 Y1 O4 Y1 Base: Base alternative O3: Overlay 50 mm Y1: Work in 2004 O1: Slurry Seal O4: Overlay 80 mm Y2: Work in 2005 O2: Overlay 25 mm O5: Reconstruction Y3: Work in 2006

a solution catalog is found for each budget level, which presents a recommended road work and timing for its application the solution maximizes the net present value of the network

Support for Programming: Recommended Road Works Sorted by Priority

Programming of works example
Section ID Villanueva - San Manuel Ocotep. - Agua Caliente . Occidente El Portillo Chamelecon Villanue. Acceso a Guaimaca . Alto Verde Coyolito Las Tapias Mateo . Siguatepe. - Intibucca Acceso a Morazan Acceso a Trujillo . . 30.9 5 10.7 0.8 4.6 7.3 7.3 7.5 8.5 7.2 1256 1384 2028 960 1437 5.8 5.3 5 3.5 4.9 T3CX O2CZ T4BX T2AZ O2BY Overlay 50 mm Overlay 80 mm Overlay 80 mm Reseal 12 mm Overlay 80 mm 2001-2002 2001-2002 2003-2004 2003-2004 2003-2004 1.96 0.43 0.94 0.01 0.27 5.45 1.11 3.1 0.02 0.74 2.78 2.6 3.31 2.73 2.71 Length (km) 9.3 21.5 35.4 15.1 1 Width Traffic (m) (AADT) 7.9 1333 7.2 1367 7.3 9.3 6.7 1521 5131 2772 Roughness (IRI) 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.8 4.2 Road Class O2AY O2AY O2AY O5BX O3BY Work Type Reseal 12 mm Reseal 12 mm Reseal 12 mm Overlay 80 mm Overlay 80 mm Period 2001-2002 2001-2002 2001-2002 2001-2002 2001-2002 Cost NPV NPV/ (m US$) (m US$) Cost 0.08 0.4 4.73 0.2 0.92 4.73 0.32 1.64 0.08 1.52 6.63 0.3 4.73 4.05 3.82

Map with Recommended Solution

REPUBLICA DE HONDURAS

INVERSION VIAL PERIODO 2001 - 2002 CONCRETO ASFALTICO Y DOBLE TRATAMIENTO