Madeleine Romanello

Keeping You Current

May 2009
 “Many analysts believe that if the world
economy is going to rebound, the recovery
will begin with U.S. housing.”
- Don Miller, Associate Editor Money Morning

Source: Seeking Alpha 4/09/09

Sales – month over month
Category Percent
Existing age- 3
Sales
Pending 2.1
Sales
New - 0.6
Construction
 RPX Monthly Housing Report
“On a month-over-month basis, the total
transaction count increased 21%, its
largest increase during the month of
February since 2004.”

Source: Radar Logic 4/23/09

Source: Seeking Alpha 4/08/09
 Wall Street Journal
Don't Hunt for the Bottom
“Pinpointing a bottom in home prices is very
difficult, akin to picking the bottom
in the stock market. But data
and research indicate we're
getting close."

Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09

Interest Rates
 Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed
Asset Purchase
Announcement
Asset Purchases
Begin

1/1/2009
4/23/2009

Source: Federal Reserve

Mortgaging
 Jumbo Loans
Bank of America recently began trumpeting jumbo programs,
offering 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgages with rates in the
high 5% range.

"To be honest, I'm not certain if [the low rates] will be around for
a while," Paola A. Kielblock, national product specialist for
Fairway Independent Mortgage said.

Source: Market Watch 4/05/09

Foreclosures
 Thousands of
mortgage loans that
were supposed to
reset at a higher rate
this spring won't be
changing, putting off
the grim threat of
foreclosure or
bankruptcy for many
Americans by as
much as a year.

Source: Business Week 4/16/09

A total of 803,489
properties entered
some stage of
foreclosure
during the first
quarter, and a
growing number
of these properties
are more expensive
homes.

Source: Realty Trac 4/09

Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09
Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09
 “(A higher monthly payment)
increases the probability of a 90-day
delinquency by 7 to 11 percent,
depending on the borrower.
By contrast, a 1-percentage-point
increase in the unemployment rate
raises this probability by 10-20 percent,
while a 10-percentage-point fall in house
prices raises it
by more than half.”

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 4/13/09

Jobless Rate

Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09

Source: Global Insight 2008 4th Quarter Report 4/09
 “There is a real danger that there is much more
(foreclosure) inventory than we are measuring.
Eventually those homes will have to be dealt
with. If they're all put on the market, that will add
more inventory to an already bloated market and
drive down home prices even more."

- Celia Chen, director of housing economics

at Moody's Economy.com

Source: Wall Street Journal 4/22/09

 Shadow Inventory?

Source: San Francisco Chronicle.com 4/08/09

Pricing
Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09
Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09
 Prices - year over year
Index % Price
Change
FHFA - 6.5
Case Shiller - 18.6
NAR - 12.4
IAS360 - 14.4
Census Bureau (New - 12.6
Homes)

Source: Macro Markets, IAS, OFHEO, Census Bureau, NAR

 List Prices
The 10-City Composite Index was up 1.1% during
March and is also up 1.1% for the first quarter since
prices were effectively flat in January and February.
This represents the first monthly and quarterly increase
in listing prices since inception of the Composite Index
in January 2008.

Source: Altos Research & Real IQ 4/08/09

The Fitch
Report
U.S. House Prices
will Drop Another

12.5%
Before Hitting Bottom

Source: Fitch.com 4/23/09

 "We expect prices to decline further through
2009 as consumers remain wary of taking on
housing debt in these uncertain economic
conditions.”
- Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist
and manager of IHS Global Insight's
Regional Real Estate Service

Source: IHS Global Insight 1Q Report 4/20/09

“We believe there is another 16% to go
in pricing before we hit the bottom.”
- Karen Weaver, Deutsche Bank
 Analyst Meredith Whitney, well-known for her work at
Oppenheimer & Co. and now at her own firm, told cable
television news outlet CNBC that
she expects home prices to fall another 30%.
Whitney is known both for her bearish calls, and
thus far, for being largely correct. Which makes
her predictions worth paying attention to.

Source: Housing Wire 4/07/09

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-04-09-vacanthomes_N.htm