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Lost Revolutions
Nyayapati Gautam
www.time4education.com
Revolutions
If poverty is the cause of revolutions, there would be revolutions all the time. What is needed to turn a million people's grumbling discontent into a crowd on the streets is a spark to electrify them. Leon Trotsky
Revolutions past
Iran: Achieved (Jan 1978 - Apr 1979) Days: 448 Deaths: 3,000+ Goal: To overthrow the Shah. Democrats started the popular uprising, but the clergy took over. Tiananmen : Not Achieved (April 1989) Days: 51 Deaths: ~3,000 Goal: To establish democracy, abolish oneparty rule and put an end to corruption.
Revolutions past
Indonesia: Goal Achieved (12-21 May 1998) Days: 10 Deaths: ~1,000 Goal: To overthrow the oppressive regime of Suharto and abolish political cronyism. Ukraine: Goal partially achieved (Nov-Dec
2004)
Days: 37 Deaths: 0 Goal: To annul a falsified election, ensure a new vote, and put an end to corruption
Progress of Revolutions
Violent death serves as a powerful catalyst. When insiders turn outsiders The regime collapses. External pressure sometimes plays a role in completing regime-change. Longevity of a regime and especially the old age of a ruler can result in a fatal incapacity to react to events quickly. Revolutions are 24/7 events. Inflexibility of the incumbent also contributes to the crisis.
Middle East
The Middle East is full of autocrats of various kinds:
Monarchies Dictatorships Religious republics Most have been supported by outside powers.
Middle East
For many decades, some of these regimes were able to placate the vast majority of their populations via massive fossil fuel based revenues. Now, it seems, that is not enough. Some of the Arab countries are also artificial; boundaries created by colonial powers to divide and conquer the Arab people also pitting clashing sub-cultures
Straight Lines
Middle East
During the Cold War, the West (and Soviet Union) actively tolerated, even encouraged, authoritarian regimes for various geopolitical reasons Irans brutal dictatorial regime governed by the Shah was friendly to the West. It was overthrown by a religiously extreme and anti-US regime and so the US supported Iraqs Saddam Hussein
Middle East
Another interest the West has in the region is military: not just geopolitically as alluded to above, but also selling vast amounts of arms and/or military training.
Development Indicators
Tunisia - Background
Home of the ancient city of Carthage, Tunisia has long been an important player in the Mediterranean, placed as it is in the centre of North Africa, close to vital shipping routes. French colonial rule ended in 1956, and Tunisia was led for three decades by Habib Bourguiba. He advanced secular ideas:
Emancipation for women - women's rights in Tunisia are among the most advanced in the Arab world. The abolition of polygamy Compulsory free education.
Ben Ali
Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali became prime minister in 1987, shortly before ousting Tunisia's first post-independence ruler, Habib Bourguiba, in a bloodless palace coup. President Bourguiba was declared mentally unfit to rule. Ben Ali promised a gradual transition towards democracy, though in his first two presidential polls - in 1989 and 1994 - he was elected unopposed. Multi-party presidential elections were introduced in 1999. They were one-sided
Crisis
Self immolation by a young unemployed man (Mohamed Bouazizi) on 17 December. Officials in his town prevented him from selling vegetables on the streets of Sidi Bouzid without permission. This triggered a much wider series of protests and clashes with the police. Were the protests expected? No, the unrest appears to have taken almost everyone by surprise, including the government. The reason: Tunisia has seen fairly good
Response to crisis
Ben Ali promised:
to tackle rising food prices allow freedom of the press and internet to "deepen democracy and to revitalise pluralism". he would not amend the constitution to enable him to stand for office again in 2014.
End game
The following day, Ben Ali announced that he had dismissed his government and called for new parliamentary elections within six months, before declaring a state of emergency. A dusk-to-dawn curfew was imposed across the whole country Public gatherings of more than three people were banned The security forces given powers to shoot anyone who disobeys their orders. Ben Ali finally announced on 14 January he was stepping down "temporarily".
Reasons
It is widely believed that the Tunisian army's chief of staff played a key role in undermining Mr Ben Ali in the days before he fled Tunisia. Internet access.
Political Sphere
Under President Ben Ali, Tunisia was effectively under one-party rule. But several other parties exist. They include:
The Movement of Socialist Democrats Party of People's Unity Unionist Democratic Union Renewal Movement (Ettajdid) Democratic Initiative Movement Social Liberal Party Green Party for Progress. Al-Nahda (a banned Islamist party) The Congress for the Republic (a banned secular party)
Egypt A chronology
25 January: Protests begin in Egypt 28 January: Unrest spreads. The protests in Egypt continue and gather momentum. President Mubarak declares a curfew in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez and the army is deployed 29 January: Suleiman appointed vicepresident 31 January: Army rules out force 1 February: 'March of a million 2 February: Army calls for protests to end. Brutal clashes break out between pro- and anti-Mubarak groups
Egypt A chronology
3 February: Cairo clashes continue 4 February: 'Day of departure' 5 February: Ruling party resignations 10 February: Mubarak 'may step down' 11 February: Mubarak resigns
Reasons
Egypt has long been known as a centre of stability in a volatile region, but that masked malignant problems which erupted in popular demonstrations against the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak on 25 and 28 January. The National Democratic Party (NDP) monopolised political power through a mixture of:
Constitutional manipulation Repression and rigged elections Cronyism The backing of powerful foreign allies.
Reasons
The main drivers of the unrest have been:
Poverty Rising prices Social exclusion Anger over corruption and personal enrichment among the political elite A demographic bulge of young people unable to find work. They have been at the forefront. It also helped that they were all extremely net savvy. Tunisia as a catalyst.
So what?
Egypt is most populous Arab country and events there will impact the Middle East. Peace treaty with Israel. Economic implications:
The tourism sector has been paralysed Oil prices have risen amid fears of unrest affecting traffic through the Suez Canal
Yemen
The poorest Arab country. Yemen suffers from:
High unemployment Overpopulation, Dwindling oil reserves, Dwindling water tables, A Shia rebellion in the north, A separatist movement in the south, A resurgent al-Qaeda in the east, A wasteful national preoccupation with the narcotic qat leaf
Yemen
Sizeable protests continue on and off against the rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power now for 33 years. The protesters want:
More job opportunities An end to corruption More even distribution of wealth An end to the president's rule.
He has agreed not to stand again when his term expires in 2013
Bahrain
The clashes that erupted on 14 February quickly turned violent. Police fired on protesters, seven people were killed. Outsiders have been quick to point to a sectarian split, the so-called "Sunni-Shia divide", focusing on the fact that the ruling al-Khalifa family come from the Sunni minority while 70% of Bahrainis are Shia.
Bahrain
The protestors want:
The 2002 constitution abolished in favour of free elections for a parliament with genuine lawmaking powers. They want political prisoners released An end to corruption and cronyism, The removal of PM Sheikh Khalifa al-Khalifa, who has been in the post for 40 years. Some have gone further to call for the ousting of King Hamad Some want an end to the two-century rule of the al-Khalifa dynasty altogether.
Oman
Oman does not have a huge oil industry and many of the population work in agriculture and fishing. Oman has been a peaceful country since the popular ruler, Sultan Qaboos, overthrew his backward father in 1970. He then defeated a communist insurgency in the south. The recent unrest was sparked by a government measure that led to several workers getting laid off. An over-reaction by the security forces led to an escalation in which two people
Any Losers?
The autocrats. Israel.
It supported Mubarak who was anti Hamas. Camp David peace agreement in the late 1970s consolidated Israel's superiority in the region
The US.
Q&A
nyayapati.gautam@time4education.com