What Is Probability?

Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. Professor of Health Administration and Policy College of Health and Human Services, George Mason University 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, Virginia 22030 703 993 1929 falemi@gmu.edu

Lecture Outline
1.

2.
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

What is probability? Assessment of rare probabilities Calculus of probability Conditional independence Causal modeling Case based learning Validation of risk models Examples

Lecture Outline
1.

What is probability?
Partitioning Probability axioms Subjective probability Hazard functions and related terms

2.

3.
4. 5. 6.

7.
8.

Assessment of rare probabilities Calculus of probability Conditional independence Causal modeling Case based learning Validation of risk models This is a new Examples way of thinking.

Why measure uncertainty?

To make tradeoffs among uncertain events Measure combined effect of several uncertain events To communicate about uncertainty

Definition

Probability quantifies how uncertain we are about future events

More Precise Definition

A probability function assigns numbers to events in a sample space so that:

1.

2.
3.

4.

At least one event from the possible sample must happen. Probability of any event is greater than or equal to zero. Probability of a complement of an event is one minus the probability of the event Probability of two mutually exclusive event occurring is the sum of each

What is probability?

What is Probability?

A P(A)=

What is probability?
All non A events

A
P( not A ) =

P(A)=

Definitions

Element Event Universe of possibilities Venn diagram

Exercise

In examining wrong side surgeries in our hospital, what are the elements, events and the universe of possibilities? Draw the Venn Diagram

Two Events Occurring

Probability of One or Other Event Occurring

Probability of One or Other Event Occurring

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A & B)

Example: Who Will Join Proposed HMO?

P(Frail or Male) = P(Frail) - P(Frail & Male) + P(Male)

Exercise

All computers = 250

Computer s with a virus =5

Computers with spies =80

3 computers have spies and virus

Probability of Two Events co-occurring

Exercise

All computers = 250

Computer s with a virus =5

Computers with spies =80

3 computers have spies and viruses

Effect of New Knowledge

If A has occurred, the universe of possibilities shrinks

Conditional Probability

Example: Hospitalization rate of frail elderly

Exercise

All computers = 250

Computer s with a virus =5

Computers with spies =80

3 computers have spies and viruses

Odds

Odds of an event

Pr obability of event 1 Pr obability of event

Odds of event Pr obability of an event 1 Odds of event

Odds
Pr obability of an event .90

Odds of an event

Pr obability of event 1 Pr obability of event

0.90 Odds of an event 1 0.90

Odds
Odds 1:1 2:1 3:1 10:1 100:1 Probability 0.50 0.67 0.75 0.91 0.99

Sources of Data

Objective frequency Subjective opinions of experts

Forcing Opinions to Behave Like Probabilities

Subjective probabilities can meet axioms of probability

Some event must occur

Always true

Probability must be zero or larger

Set by convention

Probability of complement is one minus the probability of the event

Forced to meet even when estimates vary.

Probability of mutually exclusive events is the sum of probabilities of each event

Choose to meet this assumption

Probabilities Provide a Context to Study Beliefs

Rules of probability provide a systematic and orderly method

Two Ways to Assess Subjective Probabilities

Strength of Beliefs Imagined Frequency

Uncertainty for rare, one time events can be measured

An Example of Strength of Belief

On a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is for sure, how certain are you that medication errors will occur in next visit?

An Exampled of Imagined Frequency

Out of 100 visits, how many have had medication errors?

Exercise

Ask a question (using strength of belief) that would assess the probability of wrong side surgery in infants in our hospital? Ask a question (using imagined frequencies) that would assess the probability of wrong side surgery among the elderly in our hospital? Ask a question that would assess the probability of medication error in infants or elderly in our hospital? Check if the answers meet the axioms of probability and adjust if they do not.

Take Home Lesson

Probability of events can be measured in subjective or objective ways

What Do You Know?

Draw a Venn Diagram showing the probability of a computer being infected with a virus or a spy. Estimate the probability of either event and both events by interviewing a student. What type of question did you ask to assess the probabilities? Calculate the following:

Probability of either, or both event occurring. Probability of virus infection in computers that have a spy. Probability of virus infection in computers that do not have a spy. Odds of neither a spy nor a virus infection.