Sie sind auf Seite 1von 93

Future Communications

Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Focus of Future Technology
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO,
Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009

2009 IBM Corporation


Introduction

IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation

IT Technology Trends 2008 Energy, Environment &


Sustainability IT Technology Trends 2009
• Green Data Center
2. Web Services
• Software as a Service Instrumented
3. Virtualization Interconnected
• Virtualization 2.0
• 4. Cloud Computing Intelligent
Cloud Computing
• 5. SaaS
Information Management
6. Analytics as a Service
• Semantic Web
7. Mobile Applications / Services
• The Security Imperative
8. Security
• Emerging Country Provisioning
Platform 9. Embedded Intelligence
• SOA Web2.0 Mashups 10. Unified Communications
• Embedded Data Intelligence 11. Colaboration / Telepresence
• Unified Communications
Infrastructure Development
• Speech Technology
• Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 Page 4 2009 IBM Corporation
Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
Increased focus
Explosion in financial on
market dataembedded
volumes technologies
> 4 Trillion RFID events per day

New York stock exchange trade & quote


volume

Consumer Generated Media By 2010 these, embedded internet devices


like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of
all internet connected systems

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 5 2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay
Water Systems As Utilities.
Innovative Bio-Sensing.
Groundwater Quality.
Hydro – Geological Models.
Socio – Economic Assessment.
Scenario Tools.
Modelling.
Data Transformation / Intelligence.

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 6 2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace, anywhere ...
Barcode (boarding
Web based PAX views/modify
PAX goes to pass ) sent to
application itinerary , seat map,
airline’s mobile phone as a link via
delivered via etc and checks-in
portal e-mail or sms
mobile browser for flight
message

Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate
networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 7 2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients?
Kiosks

Web
Self-Service
= Mobile

IVR/
Call Center

Choice and control is handed to customers


with consistency of information
and clear transition paths across channels
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 Page 8 2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly dominant
Idea Generation Incubation
Publish Ideas Select Ideas Develop Solutions Collaborate Product Trials

Peer Reviews Early User Feedback

An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ...

… innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 9 2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape

Majority of CEOs
Surveyed by IBM
indicated that their main Survey of
source of innovation was Collaboration
from clients & staff – not Tools in use by
formal R&D. IBMers

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 10 2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations

Real-time Translation Simplified Business Intelligent Utility 3D Internet “Digital Me”


Services Engines Networks

Big Green Branchless Smart Healthcare Intelligent Electronic Health


Innovations Banking for Payment Systems Transportation Record System
the Masses Systems

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 11 2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT)
industry…
profoundly change the way people work and companies 2009
• Provides massively scalable computing resources from
operate.”
anywhere
Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery
• Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers

1990 Utility Computing

Grid Computing

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 12 2009 IBM Corporation
0
6
13
/
1
5

What is Cloud Computing?


/
0
9

“The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the
consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology.

The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).”

Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org

Service Consumers
Datacenter
Monitor & Manage Infrastructure Access
Services & Resources Services

IT Cloud
Service Catalog, Component Vendors/
Software Publishers
Component
Cloud
Library
Administrator Publish & Update
Components,
Service Templates

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 13 2009 IBM Corporation
0
6
14
/
1
5
/
0
9
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility

Without Cloud With Cloud  The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal
100% New Development Liberated funding for new environment for
development, trans-
formation investment or
a private cloud implementation. By implementing
Software Costs direct saving virtualization and automated provisioning, the team
Strategic
Change
was able to:
Capacity
Power Costs  Reduce from 488 servers to 55
 Reduce from 15 admins to 2
 Reduce Power costs
Current (fewer servers)
IT Labor Costs (Operations Deployment (1-time)
Spend and Maintenance)
Software Costs
 Note: Clients who have already adopted
Power Costs
virtualization and automated provisioning will see
Hardware,
Hardware Costs (88.8%) different results.
labor & power
(annualized) Labor Costs savings re-duced
( - 80.7%) annual cost of
operation
Hardware Costs
( - 88.7%) by 83.8%

Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 14 2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 15 2009 IBM Corporation
Summary

The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded
computing will appear in ever more places
Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!)
The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant
Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities
New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend

Have a strategy!!

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 16 2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …

… then run like heck !!

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 17
17
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications
Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Future Technology
Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus
Business means Technology
Ian Jones, NCC, Head of Research

2009 IBM Corporation


Agenda

21 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


About NCC

22 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Change is the only constant…..

– Did you Know?

23 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Technology Trends: Enterprise 2.0 – the old guard vs the 2.0ers

Compromise
24 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples…

25 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Enterprise 2.0: Examples

26 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Enterprise 2.0: Examples – www.twine.com

27 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Technology Trends - Cloud Computing

28 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Put simply…

Cloud Computing is… the externalisation


of enterprise IT across the internet to provide business
services from a commodity based infrastructure….
…. With payment by usage…
and limited, if any, commitment from either side.
29 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Its all about convergence - a brief history….

30 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Market predictions… software and IT Services

31 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Why?

32 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Why not?

33 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Recommendations – what now?

34 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Security vs. Accessibility…

35 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Ian Jones, NCC Head of Research
Tel: 0161 242 2170
Email: ian.jones@ncc.co.uk

36 / x 2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Daft.ie
Eamonn Fallon

2009 IBM Corporation


A PRODUCT BORN OUT OF
FRUSTRATION...

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 39 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title
Date 40 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Today...

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 41 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Ireland’s No.1 Property Medium

Monthly Uniques Audience Market Share

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 42 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie – A property marketplace
95 out of every 100 properties for Yearly rental income facilitated by
sale now listed on Daft.ie the Daft lettings section

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 43 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Our Advertisers

― Who are they?


– Individuals selling/renting property (~100,000)
– Estate Agents (~1,500)
– Big brands (~50)

― Where did all these advertisers come from?


– The internet broke the newspaper business model
– We are much cheaper and much more effective

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 44 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie is not a web business!

1. Build Audience 2. Sell Advertising 3. Profit?

> >

X 1.2
million

We are a MEDIA business!


Same old formula used by newspaper, tv and radio industries for years
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title
Date 45 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
QUESTIONS?

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title


Date 46 / x 2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Focus of Future Technology
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO,
Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009

2009 IBM Corporation


Introduction

IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation

IT Technology Trends 2008 Energy, Environment &


Sustainability IT Technology Trends 2009
• Green Data Center
2. Web Services
• Software as a Service Instrumented
3. Virtualization Interconnected
• Virtualization 2.0
• 4. Cloud Computing Intelligent
Cloud Computing
• 5. SaaS
Information Management
6. Analytics as a Service
• Semantic Web
7. Mobile Applications / Services
• The Security Imperative
8. Security
• Emerging Country Provisioning
Platform 9. Embedded Intelligence
• SOA Web2.0 Mashups 10. Unified Communications
• Embedded Data Intelligence 11. Colaboration / Telepresence
• Unified Communications
Infrastructure Development
• Speech Technology
• Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 Page 49 2009 IBM Corporation
Increased focus on embedded Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
technologies
Explosion in financial market data volumes

> 4 Trillion RFID events per day

New York stock exchange trade & quote


volume

Consumer Generated Media By 2010 these, embedded internet devices


like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of
all internet connected systems

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 50 2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay
Water Systems As Utilities.
Innovative Bio-Sensing.
Groundwater Quality.
Hydro – Geological Models.
Socio – Economic Assessment.
Scenario Tools.
Modelling.
Data Transformation / Intelligence.

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 51 2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace,
anywhere ...
Barcode (boarding
Web based PAX views/modify
PAX goes to pass ) sent to
application itinerary , seat map,
airline’s mobile phone as a link via
delivered via etc and checks-in
portal e-mail or sms
mobile browser for flight
message

Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate
networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 52 2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients?
Kiosks

Web
Self-Service
= Mobile

IVR/
Call Center

Choice and control is handed to customers


with consistency of information
and clear transition paths across channels
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 Page 53 2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly
dominant
Idea Generation Incubation
Publish Ideas Select Ideas Develop Solutions Collaborate Product Trials

Peer Reviews Early User Feedback

An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ...

… innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 54 2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape

Majority of CEOs
Surveyed by IBM
indicated that their main Survey of
source of innovation was Collaboration
from clients & staff – not Tools in use by
formal R&D. IBMers

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 55 2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations

Real-time Translation Simplified Business Intelligent Utility 3D Internet “Digital Me”


Services Engines Networks

Big Green Branchless Smart Healthcare Intelligent Electronic Health


Innovations Banking for Payment Systems Transportation Record System
the Masses Systems

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 56 2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT)
industry…
profoundly change the way people work and companies 2009
• Provides massively scalable computing resources from
operate.”
anywhere
Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery
• Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers

1990 Utility Computing

Grid Computing

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 57 2009 IBM Corporation
0
6
58
/
1
5

What is Cloud Computing?


/
0
9

“The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the
consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology.

The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).”

Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org

Service Consumers
Datacenter
Monitor & Manage Infrastructure Access
Services & Resources Services

IT Cloud
Service Catalog, Component Vendors/
Software Publishers
Component
Cloud
Library
Administrator Publish & Update
Components,
Service Templates

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 58 2009 IBM Corporation
0
6
59
/
1
5
/
0
9
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility

Without Cloud With Cloud  The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal
100% New Development Liberated funding for new environment for
development, trans-
formation investment or
a private cloud implementation. By implementing
Software Costs direct saving virtualization and automated provisioning, the team
Strategic
Change
was able to:
Capacity
Power Costs  Reduce from 488 servers to 55
 Reduce from 15 admins to 2
 Reduce Power costs
Current (fewer servers)
IT Labor Costs (Operations Deployment (1-time)
Spend and Maintenance)
Software Costs
 Note: Clients who have already adopted
Power Costs
virtualization and automated provisioning will see
Hardware,
Hardware Costs (88.8%) different results.
labor & power
(annualized) Labor Costs savings re-duced
( - 80.7%) annual cost of
operation
Hardware Costs
( - 88.7%) by 83.8%

Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 59 2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 60 2009 IBM Corporation
Summary

The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded
computing will appear in ever more places
Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!)
The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant
Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities
New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend

Have a strategy!!

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 61 2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …

… then run like heck !!

Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center


June 2009 Page 62
62
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Online Future in Focus
John McElligott, eBay Classifieds Group
June 09
Show of hands:

1. Bought a newspaper today?

2. Bought a car in the last year?


3. Understand purpose of all 42 buttons on
the standard Remote Control?

65
John McElligott, June 09
Agenda:

• Intro to eBay Inc and eBay Classifieds Group

• Insights for today’s economy (main part)

• Some Tips for the future

66
John McElligott, June 09
eBay – Our beginnings …

67
John McElligott, June 09
eBay today

68
John McElligott, June 09
eBay Classifieds Group

69
John McElligott, June 09
Four insights for today’s economy:

User needs stay relatively constant over time … though how best to satisfy
1 those needs can change quickly

Business trends can be easy to spot … either in retrospect (bad) … or if you


2 separate them into component parts (much better)

3 The most important thing in business is often the ability to do the basics
really well

4 Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s rarely a good
idea to ignore or fight these

70
John McElligott, June 09
“Will it be a fine day for the game tomorrow?” 1
User Needs

My Grandad

My Dad
Me

71
John McElligott, June 09
“I want to listen to my favourite music when and where I want” 1
User Needs

User Needs:
User Needs: 1980
1880 -- 1995
1980

User Needs 2010

72
John McElligott, June 09
Customers prefer simplicity 1
User Needs

Gen X “Facebook generation”

73
John McElligott, June 09
Business trends can be easy to spot either in retrospect … or if you 2
separate them into component parts - Motor industry example Business Trends

• Today’s cars are very reliable and never rust!


• Today’s cars have great performance!

74
John McElligott, June 09
“Today’s cars are … 2
Business Trends

2009 Toyota
… exactly the same as those of 20
years ago!

… and Toyota are the industry


leader!!

1990 Toyota
… so we clearly need fewer cars to
be manufactured…

… and someone is surprised about


this?

75
John McElligott, June 09
“I want up-to-date news for the areas in which I am interested” 2
Business Trends

In 2010 Satisfying Needs?

1. Targetted
2. Real-time
3. ‘Pull’ – user in control
4. Convenient
5. Environmentally responsible

76
John McElligott, June 09
Banks dramatically failing their customers 2
Business Trends

Who needs banks? P2P Lending - Big in 2010

9% Return via Zopa.co.uk

77
John McElligott, June 09
2
•Remember that … Business Trends

•…recessions are the times in business when we see the


greatest changes in relative competitive position

•Some players simply do not survive. Certain trends are


accelerated through the effects of the downturn

•Despite their obvious downsides, recessions are often


times of great competitive opportunities
78
John McElligott, June 09
The most important thing in business is often the ability 3
to do the basics really well Focus on the basics

The M & M & M & M approach

Market Size?

Market Share?

Margin
(i.e. Cost base)

79
John McElligott, June 09
Enterprise Case Study: Dramatic fall in ‘P&L’ 3
Focus on the basics

Republic of Ireland Government Balance


3.0
1.7
0.4 0.2 2008 2009 2010

2004 2005 2006 2007

-7.1

-12.0

-15.6

80
John McElligott, June 09
Apply M&M&M: If ‘Govt of Ireland Plc’ were a business and had to break-even

Can we grow market size? No – Ireland is in recession, credit is tight,


i.e. Can we increase National Income (GDP) household wealth depleted and global
conditions not favourable

Can we grow market share? No – Reduces competitiveness, drives away


i.e. Can we increase Tax Take? business, tried and failed in 1980’s, insufficient
to bridge the necessary gap

Can we increase margins? Yes – we would simply have to if we wanted to


i.e. Can we reduce Govt spending? stay in business as a going concern

M&M&M A large scale (~20%) and regretful reduction in both


spending and staff
Prognosis: An overdue focus on performance
81
John McElligott, June 09
4
Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s
rarely a good idea to ignore or fight these

Why?

Grownups believe that the world is just like


when they were growing up and that
everything happening now is an

exception
82
John McElligott, June 09
Transparency is unstoppable: 4
Modified Rules

… performance management?

Long overdue …

Democratisation?

83
John McElligott, June 09
Consumers trust complete strangers more than marketeers 4
Modified Rules

“… is a delightful 3 bed semi “… is a dreadful hotel. Rooms


detached property located at are in serious need of
the end of this leafy estate refurbishment. They smelt and
with all amenities on your the noise was intolerable.
doorstep. This ideal property Would never stay again.”
is a must view and is
available at any time.”

84
John McElligott, June 09
Pay for Performance advertising is here to stay 4
Modified Rules

“A dramatic
improvement over
earlier models”

85
John McElligott, June 09
Tip: Measure things … in detail … regularly …

Keep on top of your metrics


Here are some of ours
Visits, Minutes, Unique Visitors, Direct Traffic,
ARPU, RPM, CPC, CTR …
What about your competitors?

BUT!!! Beware of extrapolation:


What game-changers are possible, or even
likely? How can you guard against negative
ones? How can you take advantage of positive
ones?
86
John McElligott, June 09
Tip: It’s a great time to hire

87
John McElligott, June 09
Tip: Online Advertising - bigger in 2010

88
John McElligott, June 09
Tip: We all have to be capable of trusting our own judgement

"Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess


more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they
bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world."

- General Colin Powell

89
John McElligott, June 09
Compete and Win! Good luck!

90
John McElligott, June 09
Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation


Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen