CLIMATE CHANGE: BANGLADESH

PERSPECTIVE

Kazi Farhed Iqubal Department of Environmental Science State University of Bangladesh

CLIMATE
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the WMO. These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, terrain, altitude, persistent ice or snow cover, as well as nearby oceans and their currents. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the average weather of a region or the earth as a whole. Average weather may include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term "climate change" usually refers to changes in modern climate

CAUSE OF CC

Increased GHG emission following industrial revolution ( burning fossil fuel, industrialization etc.) Increased GHG level in the atmosphere More heat energy from sunlight absorbed by increased GHG in the atmosphere Overall temperature of the planet increased (global warming) Changes in the precipitation and wind pattern along with the temperature (over 30 years avg or more) are referred as CC

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT

GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) CFC12 (CCI2F2) HCFC22(CHCIF2) Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) GWP 1 GWP 24 GWP 310 GWP 6200-7200 GWP 1300-1400 GWP 22200

Sources of GHGs
Energy Sector Energy Industry Manufacturing Industries Transport Residential Sector Commercial Agriculture Agriculture Sector Crop Agriculture Livestock and Manure ManagementLanduse Change and Forestry Conversion of Land Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

APPROACHES TO SOLUTIONS AND

ACTIONS

Mitigation
Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action) Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions Trading)

Adaptation Technology transfer Adequate fund flow ( AF, LDCF, SCCF, MDTF, BCCF, etc.)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BANGLADESH

BANGLADESH: A SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRY

COUNTRY CONTEXT AND VULNERABILITY

Deltaic landscape, 80%floodplain Population density very high (1045/km2) High level of Poverty (less than $1 a day 29%, less than $2 a day 84%) Disaster prone, people are exposed to hazards Natural resources based (predominantly agrarian) economy Recognized globally as most vulnerable to Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: MAKES IT WORSE

More floods ( 1998, 2004, 2007, water logging, flash flood) Increased moisture stress (droughts, even in the Coastal Zone) Intensified cyclone, wind, storm surge, turbulent sea, precipitation Salinity intrusion (100 km in to the country side during dry season) Greater temperature extremes Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, ecosystem degradation etc.)

IPCC PROJECTION (AR 4)

The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s. Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased. Water shortages has been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality. Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season. The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems.

Drought Hazards

Flood Hazards

Cyclone Salinity
0 SLR 32 cm SLR 88 cm SLR

Climate Change Challenges Development

Affects -Agriculture, Industry, Health, Infrastructure and others -Ecosystems, Special areas (EPZ, Coastal zones, etc.) -Farmers, Fishermen, Natural resource collectors -People living in marginal land -Women, child & disadvantaged groups

Gradual impacts

Agriculture

Flood, flash flood, droughts, salinity, precipitation pattern Rice and wheat production reduce 8% and 32% respectively by 2050 Fisheries impacted negatively (salinity intrusion, fisheries recruitment etc) Water Flood/flash flood timing Increased precipitation in the catchments bring more water which is beyond drainage capacity, infrastructure insufficient capacity Urban flooding, drainage congestion (drainage infrastructure and channels are insufficient) Salinity intrusion (irrigation, domestic use, drinking water) Trans-boundary water issues

Gradual Impacts

Health

Increased water and vector borne diseases Increased diseases due to salinity and water logging Sanitation, safe drinking water Intensified cyclone Increased/ storm surges, wave heights, turbulent sea Salinity intrusion, soil salinity, ground water salinity

Coastal zone

Special areas

Ecosystems Areas with high economic importance (Export Process Zone, ports etc)
Women, children, elderly Disadvantaged groups (ethnic, fisher, Sundarban dependent etc)

Most vulnerable groups

CC impacting livelihoods -an example

140

No. of days with signal 3 or more

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Climate Change Disaster Risks

Increased SST potential for more cyclone landfall and storm surges Increased rain during monsoon/post monsoon in upper catchment & or within Bangladesh leads to more floods and disasters Water shortage and higher temperature results into acute and more spread droughts More erosion Infrastructures: threat past gains and needs new design

RESPONSE
National

Government Civil society UNFCCC, Kyoto protocol, Negotiation, funding mechanism Development partners

International

Response National

Kyoto

Protocol, UNFCCC ratified A large number of studies NAPA, National communication International process (Negotiation) Climate Change Cell BCCSAP 2009 BCCF

CIVIL SOCIETY

Championed the concern in country/abroad, active earlier Work closely/partnerships with Government entities (NAPA, national communication, etc.) Part of country delegation to COP/MOP Numerous studies, assessments (over 100)

Civil society initiatives are on the ground, piloting and demonstration and building community resilience Government learns from these and uptake for scale up and institutionalization

THANKS