Sense about Science

St John’s College Oxford, 17 March 2007

New climate change scenarios for the UK

Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter

and
Royal Meteorological Society, Reading.
Global temperatures 1850-2006 (+ 2007 forecast)

Hadley Centre/UEA

Met Office Hadley Centre 2

Natural factors which can change climate

Variations in the Earth's orbit Variations in the energy

(Milankovic effect) received from the sun

Stratospheric
aerosol from
energetic Chaotic interactions in
volcanoes the Earth's climate
(for example, El Nino, NAO)

Met Office Hadley Centre 3

Emissions of CO2 from fossil-fuel burning;
rapid rise since 1950

Source: CDIAC, ORNL

Met Office Hadley Centre 4
Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide

375

350
Carbon dioxide
325 concentration in
parts per million

300

275

1800 1900 2000

Met Office Hadley Centre 5

 Models can only simulate recent change when
human factor are included

Source: IPCC AR4

1.0 Observations
Temperature change ºC

0.5 Model
simulations with
natural variability
plus man’s
activities

Model
simulations
with only
natural
1900 1950 2000 variability

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Met Office Hadley Centre 6
Central England Temperature 1772-2006

2006 was easily the warmest year in England.

The warming of nearly 1degC since 1980 cannot be explained by natural factors
and is consistent with the expected response to human factors.
Met Office Hadley Centre 7
 Emissions to 2000, and IPCC projections to 2100

30

High (SRES A1FI)

Medium-High (A2)
Medium-Low (B2)
20 Low (SRES B1)
Fossil-fuel emissions

Problem: we do not know

the relative likelihood of
each emission scenario

10
GtC/y

0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Met Office Hadley Centre Source: CDIAC and IPCC 8

Global average temperature rise – UK model
Global temperature rise, degrees C

High emissions
Medium-high emissions
Medium-low emissions
Low emissions

Black
bar =
best
estimate

Start to diverge
from 2040s

Red bar =
likely range
from all
climate
models

Met Office Hadley Centre 9

Planning adaptation to climate change in the UK

Met Office
Hadley Centre

Climate
Adaptation planners, eg:
Change
Scenarios
• Transport (road, rail)
UK • Environment Agency
Climate • Utilities (water, energy…)
other
Impacts adaptation • Insurance
Programme, tools • Local Government
Oxford & advice
• Government Regulators
• Many others

Met Office Hadley Centre 10

 2002 Climate change scenarios (UKCIP02)

 50km resolution from Hadley

Centre GCM and RCM

 4 future emissions scenarios

 Starting to be used by

private and public-sector to

plan adaptation (eg EA 20%

uplift of winter river flow)

Met Office Hadley Centre 11

 Change in UK temperature by the 2080s
Medium – High emissions scenario

winter summer

°C
Met Office Hadley Centre 12
 Change in UK precipitation by the 2080s
Medium – High emissions scenario

winter summer

%
Met Office Hadley Centre 13
 UK snowfall will be greatly reduced

Snowman % reduction in snowfall by 2080s

February 2007

Met Office Hadley Centre 14

Modelling uncertainties – IPCC 4AR (2007)

Problem: we do not know the relative likelihood of each prediction

Met Office Hadley Centre 15

Next scenarios: Moving from uncertainty to probability

current situation future situation

Probability
Probability

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10%

2080s SE England summer rainfall 2080s SE England summer rainfall

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 Could the Gulf Stream switch off?

• UK climate is warmed by the Gulf Stream

• Ocean currents can be affected by climate change
• Rapid cooling 11 000 years ago due to Gulf Stream shutdown
• Could this happen again due to human activity?

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 How the Gulf stream is maintained

Warm surface current

Cold deep current

Convection areas

Met Office Hadley Centre 18

 Gulf Stream collapse would mean a cold UK

UK: 3-5°C cooling

Met Office Hadley Centre 19

Gulf Stream: predicted to decline but not switch off
Circulation strength (Sv)

High emissions
Medium-High
Medium Low
Low Emissions

Met Office Hadley Centre 20

 Summary

 Very likely that human activities, mainly fossil fuel burning,

are to blame for most of the last 50yr warming
 Cannot explain Central England warming by natural factors
 Even with strong mitigation policies, climate will change, so
scenarios are needed by planners to prepare for adaptation.
 Scenarios generated for UK Climate Impacts programme in
2002 have been widely used to explore possible responses.
 But climate models give very different predictions for local
regions and for extremes; difficult for planners.
 Next set of scenarios will handle this uncertainty by being
probabilistic in nature.

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