Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Jeffrey Frankel
Harpel Professor, Harvard University
A Report for the Swedish Globalisation Council, Government of Sweden January 20, 2009, Stockholm
Central questions
Is trade good or bad for the environment? Does globalization help or hurt in achieving the best tradeoff between environmental and economic goals?
Do international trade & investment allow countries to achieve more economic growth for any given level of environmental quality? Or do they damage environmental quality for any given rate of economic growth?
Do the WTO & environment conflict? How can globalization best be harnessed?
Symmetric fears
Free traders fear that talk about environmental protection will be used as an excuse by some economic sectors to gain protection for themselves against competition from abroad. Environmentalists fear that talk about free trade will be used as an excuse to give inadequate weight to environmental goals and excessive weight to maximization of GDP.
National sovereignty
Environmental standards
Unregulated emissions
Multilateral governance
Globalization
30
CO2 Emissions per Capita
25 20 15 10 5 0 0 100 200
Trade Openness
300
400
Econometric analysis
Frankel and Rose, 2004
for SO2
concentrations
EKC: after an income of about $5,700/cap., further growth tends to reduce pollution (via national regulation) No sign that total emissions ever turn down. (CO2 is a global externality: little regulation is possible at the national level)
for CO2
emissions / capita
Do harmful or beneficial effects of trade dominate for environmental goals? Bottom lines:
For SO2
at low incomes, harmful effects (EKC) work against beneficial effects at high levels of income, trade helps through both channels.
For CO2
Even at high levels of income, trade continues to hurt. <= Absent an effective multilateral treaty, the popular will cannot be enacted.
Washington may not realize that the US is likely to be the victim of legal sanctions before it is the wielder of them.
Energy-intensive industries which are determined to be exposed to significant risk of carbon leakage could receive a higher amount of free allocation, or an effective carbon equalization system could be introduced with a view to putting EU and non-EU producers on a comparable footing. Such a system could apply to importers of goods requirements similar to those applicable to installations within the EU, by requiring the surrender of allowances.
Precedent (2): The true meaning of the 1998 WTO panel shrimp-turtle decision
New ruling: environmental measures can target, not only exported products (Article XX), but also partners Processes & Production Methods (PPMs),
subject, as always, to non-discrimination (Articles I & III). US was able to proceed to protect turtles, without discrimination against Asian fishermen.
Precedent (3): In case there is any doubt that Article XX, which uses the phrase health and conservation, applies to climate change,
A 3rd precedent is relevant: In 2007, a WTO Appellate Body decision regarding Brazilian restrictions on imports of retreaded tires confirmed the applicability of Article XX(b): Rulings accord considerable flexibility to WTO Member governments when they take trade-restrictive measures to protect life or health [and] apply equally to measures taken to combat global warming.
Central message: border measures to address leakage need not necessarily violate sensible trade principles or the WTO,
but there is a great danger that they will in practice.
The danger: If each country imposes border measures in whatever way suits national politics,
they will be poorly targeted, discriminatory, and often disguisedly protectionist. they will run afoul of the WTO, and will deserve to.
Some subjective judgments as to principles that should guide design of border measures
Judgments as to findings of fact (who is complying, etc.) should be made by independent expert panels. Measures should only be applied by countries that cut their own emissions in line with the KP & its successors,
against countries not doing so due to either refusal to join or failure to comply.
Import penalties should target fossil fuels, and a half dozen of the most energy-intensive major industries:
aluminum, cement, steel, paper, glass, and perhaps iron & chemicals.
Summary of conclusions
My report considers whether globalization has damaged environmental goals,
either among open countries in general (through a race to the bottom in environmental regulation) or in certain countries (pollution havens). Such effects are plausible in theory, but empirical studies of cross-country data find no detrimental effects of trade on some measures of environmental degradation such as SO2 air pollution, controlling for income.
Summary of conclusions,
continued
Summary of conclusions,
continued
But the evidence does suggest that trade & growth can exacerbate other measures of environmental degradation, particularly CO2 emissions. The difference can be explained by the observation that CO2 is a global externality
which cannot be addressed at the national level due to the free rider problem. We need institutions of governance at the multilateral level. These have not been in place, at least until recently.
The solution
Greater international cooperation on environmental and trade issues, so that we can get the best of both. Very specifically, the Copenhagen Conference of Parties should negotiate guidelines for penalties on carbonintensive imports that countries are allowed to impose on each other.
Appendices
WTO
Seattle demonstrators Language regarding environment Panels
WTO protests.
Why did they march together in Seattle?
Category of Claimed demonconstistrator tuency
Protestor in Environ turtle costume ment Labor union official NGO volunteer
Organized Against the Kyoto protocol; in labor favor of keeping out cheap imports from poor countries Poor countries In favor of selling their goods to rich countries; in favor of Kyoto protocol if it exempts them from commitments.
Mutual respect
Drafters in Kyoto and Geneva showed more consideration for each other than the rank & file of environmentalists and free traders. The Kyoto Protocol text:
Parties should strive to implement policies and measures...to minimize adverse effects on international trade... ; FCCC features similar language
If targeted country files a WTO complaint alleging such a violation, the question is whether the measure is permissible under Article XX
which allows for exceptions to the non-discrimination principles for environmental reasons (XXb), provided that the measures in question are not a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.
This mechanism is in any case necessary in order to induce those countries to agree on such a commitment. letter to Barroso, January 2008