Stocks & Flows Diagrams: EXTENDED

Based on Budi HARTONO

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 Adding Input / Output Objects

Slider Bars for constant-valued auxiliary variables Slider Bars to set the initial value of box variables Making a switch out of a Slider Adding custom graphs/tables to the build window

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REFERENCE CASE THE FLU

Susceptible People is initially 99 Infected People is initially 1 Infection Fraction = 0.0151 Get Sick = Susceptible People * Infected People * Infection Fraction Model Settings: Initial Time = 1, Final Time = 10, TimeStep = 0.1, unit for time = days
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Slider Bars for Constant-Valued Auxiliary Variables

Changing the infection fraction Why?

What-if analysis Calibration

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Procedure
1. 2.

3.
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Slider Bars to Set the Initial Value of a Box Variable

to vary the initial value of Susceptible People.

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Procedure
Add a new auxiliary variable and name it Initial Value of Susceptible People. Add a connector from this auxiliary variable to Susceptible People. Open the equations window of Susceptible People. Set its initial value equal to Initial Value of Susceptible People. Now open the equations window for Initial Value of Susceptible People and specify a value. Create a slider for your auxiliary variable as described earlier
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Making Switches Out of Sliders

restricting them to a value of either 0 or 1 turning them into On/Off switches for rates
GS = S * I * k * o When Get Sick On/Off = 0, the formula for Get Sick evaluates to 0: GS = S * I * k * 0 = 0. When Get Sick On/Off = 1, the formula for Get Sick is normal: GS = S * I *k * 1 = S * I * k.
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GS = S * I * k * o
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Adding Custom Graphs and Tables to the Build Window

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Case 4 The Workforce-Inventory Example

Self-exercise

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The Context
You are involved in the production and sale of prefabricated window frames. Overall your company is doing quite well, but you often go through periods of low capacity utilization followed by production ramp up and added shifts. While all of this is normally blamed on market demand and the condition of the economy, you have your doubts. Looking back at sales and production over the last 8 years it seems that sales is more stable than production. Your goal is to determine why this might be, and what you can do about it.

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Approach
In attacking this problem you want to simplify as much as possible your current situation. There are a number of reasons for this simplification:
It is easier to understand a simple model. You can get results quickly and decide if you are on the right track. It is more effective to start with a simple model and add detail, than to build a complex model and attempt to extract insights from it after it is complete. Using a simple model forces you to take an overview which is usually useful in the initial modeling phases.

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The Iceberg:

events patterns - structure

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Dynamic Hypothesis
an idea about what structure might be capable of generating behavior like that in the reference modes. Key variables of interest:
____ ____

The dynamic hypothesis for this firm is that a manager is setting production based on current sales, but is amplifying the amount resulting in higher (or lower) production than is necessary.
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Sales Production
Related by:
physical : production is required to produce goods to sell Information: managers base production decisions on current or recent sales

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Physical Relationships
Stocks? Flows?

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Workforce

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Behavioral Relationships
information connections.

a stock adjustment process

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Stock Adjustment Process

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Equation Set
FINAL TIME = 100 Units: Month INITIAL TIME = 0 Units: Month TIME STEP = 0.25 Units: Month SAVEPER = TIME STEP Units: Month
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Inventory = INTEG(production-sales, 300) Units: Frame net hire rate=(target workforce-Workforce)/time to adjust workforce Units: Person/Month production= Workforce*productivity Units: Frame/Month

productivity= 1 Units: Frame/Month/Person

sales= 100 + STEP(50,20) Units: Frame/Month target production= sales Units: Frame/Month

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target workforce= target production/productivity Units: Person time to adjust workforce= 3 Units: Month Workforce = INTEG(net hire rate, target workforce) Units: Person

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Run Simulation & analysis

VS.

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One missing loop is introduced

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Added equation
target production = sales + inventory correction Units: Frame/Month inventory correction = (target inventory - Inventory)/ time to correct inventory Units: Frame/Month time to correct inventory = 2 Units: Month target inventory = sales * INVENTORY COVERAGE Units: Frame INVENTORY COVERAGE = 3 Units: Month

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inventory Target inv production sales

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Policy Analysis - Sensitivity

More aggressive correction for inventory deviations Time to correct inventory: 1 month instead of 2 months

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Reality Check model verification

Extreme condition test "Without Inventory we can't ship."

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