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polyzone
polyzone
Then doubt begin to creep in. notice the outlay for transportation costs. Some of the projects raw material were commodity chemicals, largely imported from Europe, and much of the polyzone production would be exported back to Europe. Moreover, the U.S company had no long run technological edge over potential European competitors. It had a head start perhaps, but was that really enough to generate a positive NPV?
Project Classification
Mandatory Investment: for statutory requirements like pollution control equipments, fire fitting equipments etc. Replacement Projects: for replacement of old equipments so that quality and efficiency should be maintained. Expansion Projects Diversification Projects Research and Development Projects
Project Sequencing
My Father and I started a Cosmetic factory in
the late 1940s. At the time, no company could supply us with the plastic caps of adequate quality for cream jars, so we had to start a Plastic business. Plastic caps were not sufficient to run the plastic molding plant, so we added Combs, Toothbrushes, and Soap boxes.
Project Sequencing
This Plastic business led us to manufacture Electric fan blades and Telephone cases, which in turn led us to manufacture Electrical and Electronics products and Telecommunication equipments. The Plastic business also took us into Oil refining which needed a tanker Shipping company.
Project Sequencing
The Oil-refining company alone was paying an insurance premium amounting to more than half of total revenue of the then largest insurance company in Korea. Thus an Insurance company was started. This natural step by step evolution through related business resulted in the Lucky-Gold
Star
Investment Criteria
Payback Period
Payback period..
For irregular cash flow, cumulative cash flow will be calculated and then pay back period will be calculated. suppose a project require investment of Rs50000. and the stream of cash flow is as follows Rs 15000,12000,15000,10000,5000 for next 5 years,
Calculation..
Year 1 2 3 4 5 Cash Flow 15000 12000 15000 10000 5000 Cumulative C. F. 15000 27000 42000 52000 57000
Thus pay back period will be between 3rd and 4th year. The fractional part (after 3rd year) can be calculated as 8000/10000 = 0.8, therefore pay back period will be 3.8 years.
Here the project is evaluated on the basis of time value of money of each cash-flow.
Accept-Reject Rule
The actual ARR will be compared with predetermined or a minimum required rate of return or a cut-off rate. A project would be accepted if actual ARR is higher than the minimum desired ARR.
ARR
Consider the following investment opportunity: a machine is available for purchase at a cost of Rs.80,000. we expect it to have a scrap value of Rs.10,000 at the end of five year period. We have estimated that it will generate additional profits over its life Amount (Rs.) time as follows: Year
1 2 3 4 5 20,000 40,000 30,000 15,000 5,000
NPV..
n
Ct Initial Investment t t 1 (1 r)
NPV..
If cash outflow is also expected to occur at some time other than at initial investment and salvage value and working capital is also to be adjusted, then NPV will be calculated as
Ct CO t Sn Wn NPV t n t (1 r) t 1 (1 r) t 0 (1 r)
n n
where Ct = cash inflow at different time periods COt = cash outflow at different time periods r = discount rate t = time periods Sn = salvage value Wn = working capital adjustment Accept-Reject Rule : NPV > zero, accept; NPV < zero, reject; NPV = zero, indifferent. However it is rare that NPV is equal to zero.
NPV..SpreadsheetModelling.xlsx
Calculate the NPV of a Project having cash outlay of Rs. 1,00,000 at present, and homogenous cash inflow of Rs. 28,000 per year for five years after one from the commencement of the project. Appropriate discounting rate for the project is 10%.
Basic NPV
Properties of NPV Rule : NPVs are additive the NPVs of different projects can be added to arrive at a cumulative NPV for a business Intermediate cash flows are reinvested at cost of capital i.e., the cash flows that occur between the initiation and termination of the project are reinvested at a rate of return equal to the cost of capital.
NPV Profile: NPV Profile shows a projects NPV graphed as a function of various Discount Rates. Typically NPV is graphed vertically on Y-Axis and Discount Rates are graphed horizontally on X-Axis.
NPV
30000 20000 10000 0 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 NPV
NPV Profile..
There are two interesting points on this NPV profile: 1. Where the profile goes through the vertical axis (the NPV when the discount rate is zero), 2. Where the profile goes through the horizontal axis (where the discount rate is the IRR). The NPV profile in the above example is very well behaved. The NPV declines at a decreasing rate as the discount rate increases. The profile is convex from the origin.
Thus IRR is the discount rate which will equates the present value of cash inflows with the present value of cash outflows.
Therefore for a project, the IRR will be
Ct Sn Wn CO 0 t n (1 r) t 1 (1 r)
n
where COo = initial cash outflow or investment Ct = cash inflow at different time periods Sn & Wn = salvage value and working capital at the end of n years r = rate of discount / IRR (to be calculated) n = life of the project
CO t Ct Sn Wn t t n (1 r) t 0 (1 r) t 1 (1 r)
n n
Accept-Reject Rule : If IRR > cost of capital, accept. If IRR < cost of capital, reject. If IRR = cost of capital, indifferent.
NPV and IRR : The IRR approach solves for a rate unique to each project, while the NPV approach solves for trade-off cash inflows and outflows using a general required rate of return. IRR gives percentage return while NPV gives absolute return.
NPV shows expected increase in the wealth of the share holders while IRR does not.
NPV of different projects are additive while the IRRs can not be added.
Example: IRR..CB.xlsx
A company has to select one of the following two projects: (Rs.) using the IRR method suggest which project is better?
Project A Cost Cash in Flows Year 1 Year 2 6000 2000 1000 1000 11,000 Project B 10,000
Year 3
Year 4
1000
5000
2000
10000
Calculation..IRRsx.xlsx
Key Factor F = I/C I = Original Investment C = Average Cash inflows per year Key factor should then be located into table for value of Re 1 received annually for n years.
PI
t 1 t 1 n
CI t (1 r) t CO t (1 r) t
Profitability Index..
where CI = cash inflow CO = cash outflow r = discount rate n = project life
Example of PI..
The XYZ INC. had an outlay of $50 million, a present value of future cash flow of $63.136 million, and an NPV of $13.136 million. PI = PV of Future cash inflows/PV of CO = 63.136/50 = 1.26 Or the PI can also be calculated as PI = 1+ (NPV/Initial Investment) = 1+ 13.136/50 = 1.26. Since PI > 1, it is acceptable.
Profitability Index
The PI indicates the value you are receiving in exchange for one unit of a currency invested. Although the PI is used less frequently than NPV and IRR, it is some times used as guide in capital rationing. It is also known as benefit-cost ratio.
138.88 25.21
If they were not mutually exclusive, you would invest in both projects because they are both profitable. However, you can choose either Project A (which has higher IRR or Project B which has NPV).
The IRR for these cash flows satisfies this equation: -1000 + 5000/(1+IRR)1 + -6000/(1+IRR)2 = 0
No IRR Problem
Time Cash Flow 0 100 1 -300 2 250
80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Series1
10
12
Capital Rationing..
Capital rationing is a situation where a constraint or budget ceiling is placed on the total size of capital expenditures during a particular period. Capital rationing refers to a situation where a company can not undertake all positive NPV projects it has identified because of shortage of capital.
Situation I
Projects are divisible and constraint is a single period one
Steps: 1. Calculate the Profitability Index of each Project. 2. Rank the Projects on the basis of their P.I. 3. Choose the optimum combination of the projects.
Example:
Project A B Required initial investment NPV at appropriate cost of capital 100000 300000 20000 35000
C
D E
50000
200000 100000 Total Fund Available
16000
25000 30000 3,00,000
Situation II
Projects are indivisible and constraint is a single period one.. Step 1. Construct the table showing the feasible combinations of the project (whose aggregate of initial outlay does not exceed the fund available for investment). Choose the combination whose aggregate NPV is maximum and consider it as optimal project mix..
Situation III
Projects are divisible and constraint is multi period one. Under this situation, the problem of capital rationing can be solved with the help of linear programming.
Example:
Outlays in present value terms:
Project 1 2 Period I 500 600 Period II 300 300 NPV 5 6
3
4 Fund Available
300
800 1200
600
400 800
6
7
Determine the optimal project mix in order to maximize NPV assuming that projects are divisible.
Solution..
Let X1,X2,X3 and X4 be the number of units of projects 1,2,3,4 respectively. Then the linear programming problem will be as follows: Maximize NPV = 5X1+6X2+6X3+7X4 Subject to the constraints: 500X1+600X2+300X3+800X4 1200 300X1+300X2+600X3+400X4800 1> (X1,X2,X3,X4)0