Turban, Aronson, and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Seventh Edition

Chapter 12 Advanced Intelligent Systems

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Learning Objectives Understand second-generation intelligent systems. Learn the basic concepts and applications of case-based systems. Understand the uses of artificial neural networks. Examine the advantages and disadvantages of artificial neural networks. Learn about genetic algorithms. Examine the theories and applications of fuzzy knowledge.
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-2

Household Financials Vision Speeds Loan Approvals With Neural Networks Vignette
Loan product regulation varies in each state Develop an object-oriented loan approval system
Neural network-based
Fed risk, interest rate variables, customer data Estimates credit worthiness, potential for fraud Pattern recognition

Integrates all loan approval phases Uses intelligent underwriting engine Reduced training time and administrative overhead Decreased managed basis efficiency ratio Upgradeable to web-based architecture

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Machine Learning
Acquisition of knowledge through historical examples Implicitly induces expert knowledge from history Different from the way that humans learn Implications of system success and failure unclear Manipulates of symbols instead of numbers

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Methods
Supervised learning
Induce knowledge from known outcomes
New cases used to modify existing theories Statistical methods Rule induction Case based and inference Neural computing Genetic algorithms leading to survival of fittest

Unsupervised learning
Determine knowledge from data with unknown outcomes
Clustering data into similar groups Neural computing Genetic algorithms leading to survival of fittest

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Case Reasoning
Inductive Case base used for decision-making Effective when rule-based reasoning is not Case
Primary knowledge element
Ossified Paradigmatic Stories
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-6

 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Process
Features assigned as character indexes
Indexing rules identify input features

Indexes used to retrieve similar cases from memory

Episodic case memories Similarity metrics applied

Old solution adjusted to fit new case

Modification rules

Solution tested If successful, assigned value and stored If failure, explain, repair, test
Alter plan to fit situation Rules for permissible alterations
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-8

 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Case Reasoning Success Factors

Specific business objectives Knowledge should directly support end users Appropriate design Updatable Measurable metrics Acceptable ROI User accessible Expandable across enterprise
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-10

Human Brain
50 to 150 billion neurons in brain Neurons grouped into networks
Axons send outputs to cells Received by dendrites, across synapses

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Neural Networks
Attempts to mimic brain functions Analogy, not accurate model Artificial neurons connected in network
Organized by topologies Structure
Three or more layers
Input, intermediate (one or more hidden layers), output

Receives modifiable signals

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-12

Processing
Processing elements are neurons Allows for parallel processing Each input is single attribute
Connection weight
Adjustable mathematical value of input

Summation function
Weighted sum of input elements Internal stimulation

Transfer function
Relation between internal activation and output
Sigmoid/transfer function Threshold value

Outputs are problem solution

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-13

Architecture
Feedforward-backpropogation
Neurons link output in one layer to input in next No feedback

Associative memory system

Correlates input data with stored information May have incomplete inputs Detects similarities

Recurrent structure
Activities go through network multiple times to produce output
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-14

Network Learning
Learning algorithms
Supervised
Connection weights derived from known cases Pattern recognition combined with weighting changes Back error propagation
Easy implementation Multiple hidden layers Adjust learning rate and momentum Known patterns compared to output and allows for weight adjustment Established error tolerance

Unsupervised Only stimuli shown to network Humans assign meanings and determine usefulness
Adaptive resonance theory Kohonen self-organizing feature maps
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-15

Development of Systems
Collect data
The more, the better

Separate data into training set to adjust weights Divide into test sets for network validation Select network topology
Determine input, output, and hidden nodes, and hidden layers

Select learning algorithm and connection weights Iterative training until network achieves preset error level Black box testing to verify inputs produce appropriate outputs
Contains routine and problematic cases

Implementation
Integration with other systems User training Monitoring and feedback
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-16

Genetic Algorithms
Computer programs that apply processes of evolution
Viability of candidate solutions

Self-organized Adaptable Fitness function

Measured by objective obtained

Iterative process
Candidate solutions combine to produce generations
Reproduction, crossover, mutation

2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Genetic Algorithms
Establish problem
Parameters
Number of initial solutions, number of offspring, number of parents and offspring for each generation, mutation level, probability distribution of crossover point occurrence

Generate initial set of solutions Compute fitness functions Total all fitness functions Compare each solutions fitness function to total Apply crossover Apply random mutation Repeat until good enough solution or no improvement
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2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang

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Fuzzy Logic
Mathematical theory of fuzzy sets Imprecise thinking Describes human perception Continuous logic Not 100% true or false, black or white Fuzzy neural networks
Fuzzification
Fuzzy logic applied to input and output used to create model

Defuzzification
Model converted back to original input, output scales Output becomes input for another intelligent system
2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 12-20