Empilhamento de bolas e epidemiologia

Tangenciamento de bolas

Mximo

Mnimo

Densidade:

relao entre a rea do crculo e do elemento gerador do mosaico

Conjectura de Kepler
In his book De nive sexangula (`On the six-sided snowflake') of 1611, Kepler asserted that the packing in three dimensions made familiar to us by fruit stands (called the face-centred cubic packing by crystallographers) was the tightest possible: Coaptatio fiet

arctissima: ut nullo praetera ordine plures globuli in idem vas compingi queant

Nenhum mosaico no plano, formado por discos que no se sobrepem, tem densidade maior que o mosaico hexagonal

Sobre a conjectura de Kepler

Kepler's assertions were possibly prompted by correspondence beginning in the year 1606 between him and the remarkable English mathematician Thomas Harriot. And Harriot's interest was perhaps prompted by a question his employer, Sir Walter Raleigh, had asked him much earlier about how to count the cannon balls in stacks on a ship. (Such were applied mathematics and the military-industrial complex in the XVI and XVII century.) Now Thue's and Hales's theorems have little to do withridiculously real world packings in a finite region. Optimal packings of finite regions are difficult to Optimal packings of finite regions are ridiculously difficult to ascertain rigourously, even in the simplest ascertain rigourously, even in the with simplest cases. Thue's cases. Thue's and Hales' theorems are concerned instead ideal packings throughout alland of the plane and space. Hales' Hales' proof is one of theare mostconcerned complicated yet required by any theorem, in any branch of theorems instead with ideal packings mathematics, and I will say little about it here. But Hales observed that, by combining in this small throughout all of the plane and space. dimension ideas of Fejes-Toth and C. A. Rogers, one could arrive at an extremely elementary proof of Thue's theorem. This note will follow Hales' suggested argument for the 2D conjecture, filling in a few minor gaps here and there, and relying almost exlusively on illustrations and a few animations to explain the reasoning

Bill Casselman University of British Columbia

Empilhamento de bolas (Kepler)

Formao de pirmides

Jos Fernandes Pinto Alpoim

Exame de Artilheiros - 1744
Academia Militar do Rio de Janeiro

Bolas e Pirmides
Problema: Empilhando bolas iguais de raio r elas estaro contidas em uma pirmide regular de base triangular. A questo determinar o volume do espao existente entre as bolas e a pirmide.

L: Lado da pirmide n o nmero de bolas que formam o lado da pirmide

Volume da pirmide que contem as bolas

Nmero total de bolas empilhadas

Volume das bolas empilhadas

Relaes entre volumes

Relao entre volumes

Relao entre volumes
7000

Vp = 0,7677Vb + 18,945

volume da pirmide

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

volume das bolas

Volumes das pirmides e das bolas

12000 10000

volumes

8000 6000 4000 2000 0

10

15

20

25

nmero de bolas

Estabilidade da relao Vp/Vn

y*=1,311

Propagao de doena

Modelo discreto

Propagao no Plano
Po=1

P1=6
P2=12

An=Total Ao=1
A1=1+6=7

P3=18 P4=24 Pn=6n

A2=A1+P2=19
-----------------An=A(n-1) +Pn

plano

E no espao?
Propagao da camada central

Ao=1
A1=1+6=Ao+6*1 A2=A1+6*2=Ao+6*1+6*2

--------------------------------An= Ao +6*1+6*2+...+6*n = Ao+6(1+2+...+n)= Ao+3n(n+1)

An = Mas infectadas num perodo n

Propagao nas camadas adjacentes

Total no estgio n:

Modelo discreto Geomtrico no espao: D1

1 6+3 12+9+7 18+15+12+12 24+21+18+15+19

N<7

Modelo Geomtrico de propagao de doenas

Modelo discreto
3.000,00

Mas podres

2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

tempo (dias)

Modelo D1

Modelo D2

Modelo discreto- Equaes de diferenas

Modelo discreto
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 2 4 6 tempo 8 10 12 14

mas podres

Modelo Fuzzy

Mtodo de Mamdani

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 5 8 10 15

Modelos
3.500,00 3.000,00 3000 2.500,00 2500
mas podres

Comparao entre modelos

2.000,00 2000 1.500,00 1500 1.000,00

1000

M1:Contnuo Modelo D1 Modelo D2 M2:Contnuo

500,00
500

0 0

24

4 6

10

12

10

14

1216

14 18

16 20

dias

Comparao entre modelos

Comparao entre modelos
3000

2500

mas podres

2000

1500

1000

M1:Contnuo Modelo D1 Modelo D2 M2:Contnuo

500

0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

dias

Fim