1.

Historical Background

2. Power Transition Theory

3. Recent Chinese Growth 4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict 5. Regional Stability in Asia 6. Will China Become a Democracy? 7. Student Questions
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1911

End of the Ching Dynasty (1644-1911) Instability, Revolts, Invasions, and Civil War

1949 1950

Maos Communist Victory Intervention in the Korean War (November) Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations

1966 1969 1972 1976 1978 2001

Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes Nixon Plays the China Card Death of Mao Market Reforms Begin Slowly

Cultural Revolution

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Will China Surpass the U.S.?

Is China Dissatisfied?

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Taiwan Singapore USA Japan

Other

Hong Kong
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 Trade

Human Rights Taiwan

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 Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China 1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12 1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78

Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict? a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate b) WTO is Impartial Monitor c) Concessions are to a Third Party d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading
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 Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response

Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty

American Perspective: Moral Obligation

-- Idealism

-- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy

-- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights
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 Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory

Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan

Series of Taiwan Straits Crises During the Cold War

U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979

Recent Democratization of Taiwan

Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion

Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?
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 Long History of Conflict 1980s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending 1990s: Defense Build Up Begins

a) Reorder Defense Focus

b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country d) Buy Off the Military Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement

Chinas Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan

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 Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China

Important Implications for the Distribution of Power

Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible

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